For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, graphite prices in North America faced a declining trend, influenced by a combination of market and geopolitical factors. The region continued to rely heavily on imports from China, Madagascar, and Mozambique, with strategic adjustments in global production impacting supply chains. While efforts such as U.S. government investments in alternative graphite sources and manufacturing facilities signaled a push toward supply chain diversification, domestic production challenges persisted. The quarter ended with graphite flake prices at USD 1013/MT CFR Houston.
In the United States, demand dynamics remained mixed. The electric vehicle sector, a key driver of graphite consumption, showed uneven demand as automakers adjusted production amid global supply chain disruptions. The construction sector experienced seasonal slowdowns, with reduced activity in multi-family housing projects and residential real estate facing high mortgage rates and declining inventory. Industrial sectors like steel and lubricants demonstrated resilience, but overall market sentiment was cautious. Additionally, geopolitical concerns over China's dominance in graphite production and evolving trade policies added pressure to the market.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. market made progress in securing long-term supply agreements, setting the stage for potential recovery in 2025 as economic conditions stabilize and new manufacturing initiatives take shape.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the European graphite market experienced a consistent decline in prices, with Germany leading the downward trend due to subdued demand and shifting supply dynamics. The quarter started with a 0.7% price drop, driven by adequate domestic availability, reduced freight costs, and new supplies from Madagascar. Despite the slight easing in industrial metrics' decline, demand remained weak, particularly in the steel and battery industries, as BEV registrations fell 5% year-over-year. The German economy continued to struggle, with no signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector. Persistently low demand across key industries, including construction and EV production, led to further price reductions. BEV registrations dropped 22%, marking a significant year-to-date decline of 26%. Factory input costs also fell, reflecting a challenging economic environment and political instability. A shift toward synthetic graphite further impacted natural graphite demand. The EV sector’s annual sales shrank by 27.4%, while the construction sector faced ongoing contractions. These factors resulted in a surplus of graphite in the market, keeping prices under pressure and marking a challenging end to the year. The latest price at the end of the quarter stood at USD 797/MT Graphite Flakes (94 %, -100 mesh) Ex Hamburg.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the graphite market in the APAC region experienced a 3% price decline, driven by a combination of subdued demand and evolving supply dynamics. The region's production levels remained stable, supported by contributions from major producers like Madagascar and Brazil, alongside technological advancements in processing. However, demand across key sectors, including construction and automotive, showed mixed trends, with cautious inventory management and economic uncertainties influencing purchasing behavior. The battery sector remained a key demand driver, although inventory optimization efforts tempered immediate growth. In China, graphite prices faced sustained downward pressure, concluding the quarter at USD 656/MT for Graphite Flakes (94%, -100 mesh) FOB Shanghai. The market was impacted by strategic production adjustments, with several manufacturers scaling back output in response to weak demand and seasonal factors. The construction sector contracted further, and the automotive sector saw a dip in new energy vehicle penetration, dampening graphite consumption. Additionally, tighter export controls and geopolitical tensions contributed to reduced export activity, while domestic demand remained uneven across sectors. Despite challenges, steady production levels and cautious optimism in business expectations suggest potential stabilization in the coming year. Overall, the graphite market reflected a complex interplay of global and domestic factors throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Graphite market experienced a notable decline in prices, with the USA showcasing the most significant fluctuations. Various factors influenced this downward trend. High supply levels, driven by stable domestic production and increased imports, created an imbalance with low demand across sectors like construction and manufacturing. Reduced consumer interest, economic uncertainty, and project delays in construction led to subdued demand.
The USA also faced challenges from weak industrial activity and declining auto sales, impacting graphite consumption. Additionally, global shipping disruptions and decreased freight prices affected market dynamics, contributing to the overall price reduction. Despite disruptions like plant shutdowns, the pricing environment remained negative, with a consistent decrease observed throughout the quarter.
Seasonal fluctuations and correlation in price changes highlighted a downward trajectory, with a notable 5% change from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price of USD 1054/MT for Graphite Flakes (94%, -100 mesh) CFR Houston in the USA reflected this prevailing decreasing sentiment.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region witnessed a significant decrease in Graphite prices, with China experiencing the most notable price changes. Several factors influenced this market downturn. Firstly, a surplus in supply, driven by expansions in manufacturing capacities and subdued demand across various industries, created an imbalance. The construction sector faced challenges, while the automotive industry saw declines in sales, impacting graphite demand negatively. Additionally, economic challenges and low consumer sentiment added to the downward pressure on prices. In China specifically, the market experienced a substantial -13% price drop compared to the previous quarter. The second half of the quarter mirrored this decline, indicating a consistent negative trend. The price of Graphite Flakes (94%, -100 mesh) FOB Shanghai concluded at USD 684/MT, highlighting the persistently decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment. Despite no observed plant shutdowns, the market remained bearish, with prices continuing to face downward pressure due to high supply and low demand, signaling a challenging period for the Graphite industry in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Graphite market encountered a challenging environment characterized by declining prices. Several significant factors contributed to this downward trend, primarily driven by weak demand from crucial industries such as automotive and steel manufacturing. The reduced activity in these sectors led to a noticeable decline in Graphite consumption, creating an oversupply situation. On the supply side, the market remained stable, with consistent production levels and normalized exports from China, preventing any supply disruptions. However, this stability contrasted sharply with the weakening demand dynamics, which exerted downward pressure on prices. Germany, in particular, experienced the most significant price changes within the region, highlighting the localized impact of broader market trends. Overall, market sentiment was decidedly negative, evidenced by a -4% decrease from the previous quarter and a -2% decline between the first and second halves of Q3. Seasonal factors and market correlations further influenced these price adjustments. By the end of the quarter, Graphite Flakes (94%, -100 mesh) Ex Hamburg, Germany, were priced at USD 831 per metric ton, underscoring the prevailing downward pricing environment. Notably, no significant disruptions or plant shutdowns were reported during this quarter, indicating a relatively stable production landscape.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 has been marked by a notable decline in graphite prices across North America, shaped by a convergence of critical factors. A primary influence has been the combination of heightened supply chain disruptions and a downward shift in demand, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. The price environment for graphite has been predominantly negative, characterized by a persistent oversupply in the market. Additionally, logistics inefficiencies, such as increased freight rates and shipping delays, have further strained the supply side, depressing prices.
In the USA, where the most significant price changes have been observed, the overall trend has reflected a consistent decrease. Seasonal factors, including the customary decline in industrial activity during the summer months, have played a role in this downturn. Moreover, the correlation between graphite prices and broader economic indicators, such as manufacturing slowdowns and reduced automotive sales, has accentuated the negative pricing sentiment.
From the previous quarter in 2024, graphite prices saw a reduction of 2%, reflective of the ongoing market pressures. The latest price at the end of the quarter stood at USD 1109/MT of Graphite Flakes (94%, -100 mesh) CFR Houston, signaling a stable yet decidedly downward trajectory in the graphite market for Q2 2024. This environment has not been ameliorated by any significant plant shutdowns, further entrenching the negative pricing outlook.
APAC
The APAC graphite market experienced a noticeable downturn in Q2 2024, driven by several significant factors influencing its pricing environment. The quarter was marked by elevated supply levels, which overshadowed the moderate to high demand from industries such as electric vehicles and electronics. This supply glut was exacerbated by the increased production output and stable mining activities, leading to a steady decline in market prices. Additionally, international trade policies, including tariffs and export controls, introduced complexities to the market dynamics, further contributing to the bearish sentiment.
China witnessed the most significant price changes within the APAC region. The country’s graphite market was heavily impacted by increased supply and the lack of corresponding demand growth, which led to a consistent downtrend in prices. Seasonality played a role, as the quarter did not align with peak demand periods, resulting in subdued trading activities. The correlation of price changes indicated a clear negative trend, reflecting a decline in investor and business confidence. Compared to the previous quarter, the price dropped by 4%, accentuating the bearish market conditions.
Concluding Q2 2024, the price of Graphite Flakes (94%, -100 mesh) FOB Shanghai in China was USD 804/MT, reflecting a persistently negative pricing environment. The overall sentiment across the quarter remained bearish, with the pricing trends indicating an ongoing supply-demand imbalance and external trade challenges. No major plant shutdowns or disruptions were reported during this timeframe, emphasizing that the price decline was primarily due to market dynamics rather than supply chain interruptions.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European graphite market witnessed a consistent decline in pricing, influenced by a confluence of overarching economic factors and regional dynamics. The integration of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) aimed to bolster domestic production and reduce reliance on imports, which inadvertently led to short-term oversupply. Simultaneously, fluctuating energy costs and rising inflation, exacerbated by increased alloy surcharges for stainless steel, created an environment where production costs surged, yet market demand remained tepid. Furthermore, global disruptions, including rerouted shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions and increased freight costs, compounded supply chain inefficiencies. Focusing on Germany, which experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations, the graphite market reflected a clear negative trend throughout Q2. The automotive sector, although showing signs of recovery, could not offset the broader manufacturing slowdown. The decline in new car registrations, coupled with stagnation in the construction sector, dampened overall demand for graphite, further driving prices down. With a recorded 2% decrease from the previous quarter, the pricing environment remained unequivocally negative. The quarter concluded with graphite prices at USD 858/MT, reflecting the persistent downward pressure. Disruptions, although not explicitly reported for graphite plants in Germany, implied a backdrop of operational challenges and industry-wide perturbations.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American graphite market experienced a mixed pricing environment during the first quarter of 2024. Overall, prices remained stable towards the end of the quarter. The market was influenced by various factors including supply stability, stable demand, and overall economic conditions.
Supply of graphite in the region remained ample, during the quarter. Winter weather conditions began to subside, allowing for a smoother supply chain. However, inflationary pressure on consumers continued to rise, which may have affected pricing. Demand for graphite in North America remained stable throughout the quarter, showing no significant change compared to the previous quarter. The automotive and construction sectors, which are major consumers of graphite.
Looking specifically at the United States, the pricing situation was like the overall North American market. Prices saw a slight decrease in February but remained stable overall. The construction market in the US started the year on a bearish note, with spending declining and low demand domestically and internationally. In terms of seasonality, the market tends to be slower during the winter months due to reduced construction activity. Overall, the pricing environment for graphite in North America during the first quarter of 2024 can be described as stable with a slight upward trend towards the end of the quarter. The latest quarter-ending price for graphite flakes (94%, -100 mesh) CFR Houston in the US was recorded at USD 1146/MT.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Graphite market in the APAC region. Market prices have been influenced by various factors, resulting in fluctuations and a generally unstable pricing environment. In China, the largest market for Graphite, prices have seen significant changes. The low domestic demand from industries such as construction and automotive has played a major role in driving prices down. The Chinese Metal market has faced difficulties in procurement and high inventory burdens. Overall, the market situation for Graphite in the APAC region has been balanced. Supplies have remained stable, but demand has been low. The lack of raw material supplies and low consumption rates have affected both domestic and international markets. Looking at the price trends, there has been a decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for Graphite in the APAC region during the first quarter of 2024 has been negative. The low domestic demand, lack of raw material supplies, and overall decline in demand have contributed to the unstable market conditions. The quarter-ending price for Graphite Flakes (94%, -100 mesh) FOB Shanghai, China is recorded at USD 873/MT.
Europe
During the initial three months of 2024, the pricing trends of Graphite in Europe displayed a complex structure, influenced by a variety of factors beyond the usual top contenders. The market scenario in Germany played a pivotal role in the fluctuations of prices, given its diverse landscape across different sectors. Additionally, changes in political leadership and financial support from the EU affected market dynamics, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Moreover, global scrap prices fluctuated, with different regions experiencing varied trends, further contributing to market uncertainties. Despite, the automotive industry saw an upturn due to increased car registrations, the construction sector remained lacklustre, impacting the pricing dynamics of numerous commodities, Graphite included. Furthermore, Germany's export market performed exceptionally well in February 2024. It's important to highlight that the producer prices index in Germany has consistently decreased, primarily due to lower energy costs, thereby contributing to the overall decline in Graphite prices. As a result, the final price of Graphite Flakes (94%, -100 mesh) Ex Hamburg in Germany currently stands at USD 889/MT.
