For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant price hikes in the U.S. Glycerine market, primarily driven by supply shortages and rising demand from both domestic and export sectors. Early in October, prices surged due to strong demand, exacerbated by low inventory levels and disruptions from China’s Golden Week holiday. U.S. suppliers faced heightened pressure from increased raw material costs, particularly palm oil, and rising shipping rates, which further strained supply chains. As winter approached, demand from industries such as pharmaceuticals, personal care, and biofuels intensified, compounding the challenges.
By November, price increases continued as production slowdowns and maintenance shutdowns limited glycerine output, while global supply chain disruptions, including labor shortages and fertilizer challenges linked to the Ukraine conflict, further impacted palm oil availability. These factors contributed to ongoing price pressures, with glycerine prices rising steadily throughout the month.
By December, supply constraints and heightened seasonal demand drove prices even higher. U.S. importers faced intensified competition and limited stock availability, resulting in a seller-driven market. With continued challenges in logistics and palm oil supply, the U.S. glycerine market remained volatile, with prices continuing to climb as demand stayed robust, particularly from key downstream industries.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 of 2024, Indonesia's Glycerine market experienced a persistent upward price trend, driven by a combination of domestic and global factors. The market saw price increases throughout October and November, fueled by high demand both locally and internationally. Indonesia’s competitive production costs and advantageous geopolitical conditions allowed it to maintain strong export positions.
The rising cost of crude oil, exacerbated by tensions in the Middle East, further strained global supply chains, benefiting Indonesian exporters. Palm oil prices also saw upward pressure due to tight global supplies, higher production costs, and increased demand from both the food industry and biofuel initiatives like Indonesia’s B40 program. In addition, global maintenance shutdowns in key production facilities and rising shipping costs due to vessel shortages added to the price pressures.
Despite weaker domestic demand in certain regions, robust international demand kept prices elevated. A key driver in the market was the growing domestic biofuel demand in Indonesia, particularly for biodiesel, which placed further strain on the supply chain. By November, Glycerine prices continued to rise steadily, driven by strong demand, rising crude oil prices, and persistent supply chain challenges.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Germany's Glycerine market experienced significant volatility, marked by rising prices, supply chain disruptions, and robust demand. The overall trend was upward for Crude and Tallow Glycerine, driven by increased demand, rising palm oil costs, and global logistical challenges, including disruptions from China’s Golden Week and shipping shortages. These factors strained inventory levels and heightened supply pressures, particularly in the personal care and pharmaceuticals sectors as winter demand surged.
Meanwhile, Refined Glycerine prices fluctuated due to subdued demand, with inventory surpluses causing price declines in Tallow-based Glycerine. By November, German suppliers faced narrowing profit margins amid rising production costs, influenced by volatile crude oil prices and escalating input costs. The strong Euro helped buffer some import costs but hurt export competitiveness. Export volumes were redirected to meet domestic demand, intensifying market constraints.
The overall Q4 market trend indicated a seller’s market, with expectations of sustained price increases for Crude and Tallow Glycerine, while Refined Glycerine might experience price stabilization. Global factors like raw material costs and logistical challenges remained pivotal in shaping the market.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Glycerine market in Saudi Arabia followed a clear upward trajectory, driven by a combination of strong demand, supply chain disruptions, and rising raw material costs. Price increases were fueled by constrained supply from Asia, particularly after China’s Golden Week, which led to longer delivery times and heightened purchasing activity from buyers, notably in Germany.
Additionally, the market faced rising palm oil prices, a key raw material for glycerine production, which were further compounded by global supply shortages. These challenges were exacerbated by limited shipping availability, inflationary pressures, and disruptions in production facilities. Throughout the quarter, demand from key sectors, particularly biofuels and oleochemicals, remained robust, sustaining upward pressure on glycerine prices. Despite some improvements in inventory management, supply shortages persisted, with global supply constraints and fluctuations in currency rates compounding the issue.
By the end of December, glycerine prices had risen steadily to $980/MT CFR Jeddah. The market is expected to remain tight heading into 2025 due to ongoing production difficulties, global supply chain challenges, and elevated raw material prices, keeping glycerine prices at elevated levels.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of 2024, the North American Glycerine market experienced a significant increase in prices, driven by strong global demand, persistent supply chain disruptions, and escalating production costs. Compared to the previous quarter, prices rose by 2%, reflecting sustained positive momentum. This upward trend indicates a favorable pricing environment characterized by robust demand and supply constraints. The consistent increase in prices throughout the quarter suggests potential for continued growth in the Glycerine sector.
Despite upward pressures, U.S. exports have outperformed expectations, leading to temporary supply constraints. Factors such as plant shutdowns, low inventory levels, and a critical shortage of shipping containers in northern regions of the U.S. have complicated the supply situation. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have strained vessel capacity and disrupted established shipping routes.
These conditions—tight supply scenarios and logistical challenges—have intensified pressure on shipping vessels and container availability, potentially leading to supply bottlenecks and higher transportation costs. Rising raw material costs, particularly for palm oil in producing regions, have inflated production expenses, compelling manufacturers to adjust their pricing strategies.
Asia Pacific
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the Glycerine market in the APAC region experienced a pronounced upward trend in prices, influenced by escalating global demand, persistent supply chain disruptions, and rising production costs. Notably, China experienced significant price fluctuations, reflecting broader trends across the industry.
In July, Crude Glycerine prices surged due to intensified demand from domestic and international markets, compounded by scheduled plant maintenance and stockpiling in anticipation of the monsoon season. Refined Glycerine prices also rose, driven by increasing production costs related to energy price hikes and raw material expenses, particularly for palm oil. August saw continued upward momentum, with substantial weekly increases in prices. By the end of the month, Crude Glycerine prices had risen sharply, fueled by supply shortages linked to geopolitical tensions and proactive stockpiling strategies. The anticipated spike in consumption due to the monsoon further supported these trends.
The economic landscape in China presented challenges for the manufacturing sector, as indicated by a stagnant Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 49.5 in June. While there were positive indicators, such as improved export orders, logistical issues—particularly port congestion and container shortages—complicated trading sentiment. Despite these challenges, the demand outlook remained optimistic, bolstered by robust export growth driven by international market needs. In contrast, the supply outlook faced constraints from declining stock levels and increasing freight costs, impacting Glycerine prices. Concluding Q3, China reported a price of USD 383/MT for Crude Glycerine 80% CFR Shanghai, indicating a stable pricing environment. This trend underscores the importance of adaptability in a fluctuating economic landscape.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a significant increase in Glycerine prices across the European region, influenced by key factors such as supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs. Reduced vessel traffic and port congestion in major production hubs have led to erratic shipping schedules and regional container shortages, constraining the global Glycerine supply. The rising costs of palm oil have inflated production expenses, compelling manufacturers to implement price adjustments. Additionally, robust demand from downstream industries such as personal care, pharmaceuticals, and food has driven increased procurement activities both domestically and internationally.
In Germany, the Glycerine market experienced pronounced price fluctuations during the third quarter, primarily reflecting upward trends linked to geopolitical tensions, seasonal demand, and ongoing supply challenges. At the beginning of July, the price of Refined Glycerine USP 99.5% CFR Hamburg rose, while Crude Glycerine 80% FOB Hamburg remained stable. This increase was largely attributed to cargo shortages arising from geopolitical issues and heightened demand from domestic and international markets. Anticipating increased demand related to the monsoon season, market participants engaged in proactive stockpiling, influencing price dynamics.
Supply challenges intensified, fueled by limited inventory levels and inflationary pressures on production costs. This upward momentum continued into the second week of August, where sustained demand across various sectors—including personal care and pharmaceuticals—coupled with persistent supply chain disruptions, further supported price increases. Overall, the Glycerine market in Germany during the third quarter of 2024 was characterized by robust demand amidst rising prices, with market participants effectively adapting to fluctuating dynamics while navigating the complexities of global supply chains.
MEA
In the third quarter of 2024, the Glycerine market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced a notable upward trend in prices, driven by strong demand from both local and international markets and supply constraints. Rising crude oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and increasing global supply chain costs further intensified the price escalation. Additionally, low global inventories and heightened demand ahead of seasonal closures and festivals contributed to increased market activity. The surge in palm oil prices—a critical input for Glycerine production—also played a vital role in this price increase.
Saudi Arabia, a dominant player in the Glycerine market, leveraged these dynamics to enhance its export potential. Throughout the quarter, Saudi Arabia witnessed pronounced price changes, showcasing a resilient market where prices consistently climbed. Reduced raw material production and rising freight charges particularly impacted the Saudi Arabian market. Domestic producers capitalized on these conditions by raising prices and exploiting arbitrage opportunities, creating additional pressures for importers and consumers. Compared to the same period last year, the quarter reflected a 6% increase in prices, underscoring a robust upward trend.
By the end of Q3 2024, Glycerine prices in Saudi Arabia settled at USD 943/MT CFR Jeddah, emphasizing the positive pricing environment observed throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Glycerine market experienced notable price declines, influenced predominantly by an oversupply and weakened demand across the region. The market faced substantial downward pressure as increased production levels from major manufacturing nations flooded the market with excess Glycerine, resulting in a supply glut. Additionally, logistical disruptions and elevated freight costs further exacerbated the situation, contributing to higher inventory levels and subsequently driving prices down. The escalating input costs, particularly from rising energy prices, have also played a significant role in the downward trend, as producers sought to cut down their expenses amidst an unfavorable economic landscape.
Focusing on the United States, which witnessed the most pronounced price changes, the quarter was marked by a steady decline in Glycerine prices. Seasonal factors, including the onset of the monsoon season, led to anticipatory stockpiling, yet the overall demand remained subdued. The Glycerine market showed a negative trend, with a -11% change compared to the same quarter last year and a -6% decline from the previous quarter in 2024.
The quarter-ending price for crude Glycerine 80% FOB Houston stood at USD 265/MT, reflecting a pervasive negative sentiment in the pricing environment. The cumulative effect of these factors has reinforced a consistent decrease in Glycerine prices, underscoring the challenges faced by the market in maintaining stability amidst fluctuating supply-demand dynamics.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a pronounced decline in Glycerine prices across the APAC region, driven by a myriad of complex factors. Predominantly, an overabundance of Glycerine inventory, stemming from previous bulk acquisitions in anticipation of heightened demand, catalyzed a significant oversupply scenario. This glut, in conjunction with stagnating consumer confidence due to inflationary pressures, curbed purchasing activities and suppressed market sentiment. Rising production costs, particularly soaring energy expenses, further exacerbated the pricing environment, intensifying the downward pressure on Glycerine prices.
Focusing on South Korea, the market experienced the most substantial price adjustments within the region. Glycerine prices in South Korea plummeted a marked decline of 4% from the preceding quarter in 2024. Seasonal factors, including decreased industrial activity during peak summer heatwaves, contributed to this trend, underscoring the stark correlation between seasonality and price shifts. The quarter concluded with the price of Glycerine Refined USP 99.5% CFR Busan settling at USD 720/MT. This consistent decline reflects a predominantly negative pricing environment, with market dynamics heavily influenced by oversupply, subdued demand, and escalating costs, culminating in a challenging quarter for Glycerine stakeholders in South Korea.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Glycerine market in the Europe region has faced a consistent downward trend in pricing, driven by several significant factors that have exerted downward pressure on market prices. The primary reasons include an oversupply of Glycerine resulting from substantial inventories accumulated in previous months. This oversupply, coupled with reduced purchasing activities and weakened consumer trust amidst inflationary pressures, has led to a subdued demand across various sectors. Furthermore, reduced production costs in major manufacturing countries have allowed for more competitive offerings, prompting buyers to delay purchases in anticipation of better pricing. Companies have also been liquidating accumulated stock to avoid storage costs and mitigate risks of product deterioration, further flooding the market with excess supply and driving prices down.
Focusing on Germany, the country has experienced the most significant price changes within the region. The overall trend has been a steady decline in Glycerine prices, influenced by seasonality and the broader economic context. The correlation between market sentiment and price changes is evident, with the market's bearish outlook reinforcing the price decreases. Compared to the same quarter last year, Glycerine prices have dropped by 5%, while the decline from the previous quarter in 2024 is also recorded at 5%.
The latest quarter-ending price for Crude Glycerine 80% FOB Hamburg in Germany is USD 335/MT. This consistent downward pricing trajectory reflects a negative sentiment in the market, underscoring the challenges faced by the Glycerine industry in navigating oversupply and subdued demand amid economic uncertainties.
MEA
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a consistent decline in Glycerine prices across the MEA region, driven primarily by an imbalance between supply and demand. A significant surplus of existing inventories, previously bulk procured in anticipation of higher demand, combined with subdued purchasing activities and weakened consumer confidence amidst escalating inflationary pressures, substantially influenced this downward trend. Reduced input costs, notably in the Palm oil sector due to abundant inventories and weakened demand, further exacerbated the price decline. Additionally, improving geopolitical conditions that led to reduced freight charges impacted overall transportation costs and pricing within the region.
Turkey, in particular, experienced the most pronounced price changes, reflecting broader market dynamics. The country saw a notable year-over-year price drop of 21%, indicative of weakened global demand and increased local supply. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices fell by 9%, signaling ongoing market adjustments and continued surplus management.
As of the quarter's end, the price of Glycerine Refined USP 99.5% CFR Izmir in Turkey settled at USD 1660/MT. This steady depreciation in prices highlights a predominantly negative pricing environment for the quarter, driven by persistent oversupply, reduced demand, and declining input costs, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment within the market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American Glycerine market in the fourth quarter of 2023 experienced significant influences on prices. Primarily, there was a notable decrease in refined glycerine prices due to surplus production and diminished demand from downstream industries. This surplus, along with falling raw material prices like palm oil, exerted downward pressure on glycerine prices. Global increases in shipping costs and supply chain disruptions also played a role in reducing prices. The factors contributing to this decline include ample inventories, a subdued demand outlook, and price reductions in major exporting countries. The principal raw material, palm oil, exhibited recent fragility, further complicating the situation. Additionally, downstream sectors, major consumers of glycerine, increasingly adopted a just-in-time purchasing approach.
By the beginning of November, Crude glycerine prices began to rise due to increased demand from the downstream sector. Reports indicate the possibility of OPEC+ extending and deepening production cuts due to concerns about global crude oil demand and member countries' desire for higher oil prices. Market assessments suggest Saudi Arabia may continue implementing additional production cuts, extending the voluntary policy of reducing production by 1 million barrels per day.
The price for Crude Glycerine 80% FOB Houston in the USA at the end of the quarter was USD 285/MT, with an average quarterly decline of 0.31%. For Glycerine Refined USP 99.5% DEL Illinois in the USA at the end of the quarter, it was USD 1570/MT, with an average quarterly decline of 1.14%.
Asia Pacific
The fourth quarter of 2023 posed challenges for Glycerine pricing in the APAC region. Various factors contributed to market dynamics and price fluctuations during this period. Initially, restricted Glycerine inventories in the region's low-end manufacturing units impacted the overall market, resulting in heightened demand and potential price shifts. Additionally, seasonal changes prompted increased international market demand, further impacting prices. Moreover, the prices of palm oil and other edible oils played a role in influencing Glycerine prices in the APAC region.
Specifically focusing on South Korea, the country underwent significant fluctuations in Glycerine prices during the quarter. It is crucial to highlight that the overall supply situation remained challenging, with merchants depleting their finished goods and addressing backlogs.
In summary, the APAC region faced a challenging quarter in Q4 2023 for Glycerine pricing, marked by limited inventories, seasonal variations, and the influence of palm oil and other edible oil prices on market dynamics. South Korea witnessed notable changes in Glycerine prices, exhibiting a downward trend compared to the previous quarter and a substantial decrease from the same quarter of the preceding year. The closing price for Glycerine Refined USP 99.5% CFR Busan in South Korea for the current quarter stands at USD 760/MT.
Europe
The European region faced challenges in Glycerine pricing during the fourth quarter of 2023, with various factors contributing to market dynamics and price fluctuations. At the beginning of Q4, prices experienced a decrease primarily influenced by a global decline, stemming from major exporting nations. Notably, Thailand, a significant Glycerine exporter, played a key role in this trend by dispatching a substantial volume of Glycerine, leading to considerable price reductions in importing regions like Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The decline in prices was linked to excess production, reduced demand, and a significant drop in raw material prices, particularly palm oil.
Local suppliers, grappling with surplus inventory challenges, showed hesitance in engaging in large-scale purchases, according to reports from multiple manufacturers. Germany, as an importing nation, mirrored the decline in Glycerine prices witnessed in major exporting countries. Towards the end of Q4, prices increased due to heightened demand from the downstream sector, driven by various factors. Improved customer confidence resulted in a noticeable uptick in consumer purchases of glycerine, contributing to a surge in demand. This increased demand puts pressure on existing supply chains, causing a ripple effect on prices.
Moreover, the ongoing winter season in Europe significantly boosted demand, providing additional cost support. The rising global cost of freight played a crucial role in influencing the market dynamics for glycerine in the UK. As a prominent importing region, the UK found itself reflecting the pricing trajectory of major exporting countries. The closing price for Glycerine Refined USP 99.5% CFR Southampton for the current quarter is USD 1855/MT, with an average quarterly decline of 0.91%.
MEA
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Glycerine market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region was influenced by several notable factors. Primarily, there was a slight price increase attributable to heightened seasonal demand, especially with winter approaching. This resulted in downstream industries, significant consumers of Glycerine, increasing their purchasing frequency. Furthermore, the market conditions in Saudi Arabia, the largest market in the region, improved due to heightened demand and limited inventories. The robust performance of the Saudi economy, supported by higher oil prices and the successful listing of Saudi Aramco shares, also contributed to this positive market situation.
However, towards the end of Q4, prices experienced a decline due to reduced international market demand. Foreign offtakes negatively impacted exports, leading to a rise in domestic inventories. As a consequence, market players chose to lower prices to deplete existing inventories and make room for fresh stock later. During this period, the prices of the raw material, Palm Oil, also saw a decrease in Indonesia.
In summary, the Glycerine market in the MEA region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, exhibited a positive price trend during the fourth quarter of 2023. The closing price for Glycerine CFR Jeddah in Saudi Arabia at the quarter's end was USD 900/MT, with an average quarterly incline of 0.05%.
