For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The Fly Ash market in North America exhibited a modest 2% increase in Q4 2024 compared to Q3, reflecting a fluctuating supply-demand balance and external logistical challenges. Early in the quarter, the market grappled with weak demand from the downstream construction and cement sectors. Prolonged rainfall and the lingering effects of a summer slowdown weighed on cement sales, while steady imports from overseas ensured sufficient Fly Ash supply. Declining freight rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast also supported a bearish price trend in October, further exacerbated by manufacturing sector contractions.
As the quarter progressed, November saw a shift toward tighter supply conditions. Port disruptions on the U.S. East Coast, driven by the ILA strike and seasonal congestion, reduced port capacity by 10-17%, delaying shipments and limiting Fly Ash availability. Simultaneously, unfavourable weather across Asia, disrupted supply chains, contributing to price surges amidst moderate demand from the construction sector.
By December, the market softened again as suppliers liquidated inventories, driven by low procurement from the downstream cement industry. Improved weather in exporting regions restored supply flows, leading to inventory build-ups at U.S. ports. The quarter ended with Fly Ash prices at USD 109/MT CFR Louisiana, as cautious purchasing activity and subdued demand from the cement sector persisted.
APAC
The Fly Ash market in the APAC region experienced a 9% rise in Q4 2024 compared to Q3, driven by evolving supply and demand dynamics as the quarter progressed. Early in the quarter, Fly Ash prices gained upward momentum due to constrained availability and a modest revival in infrastructure projects. Chinese manufacturers increased production and inventory levels, supported by an uptick in new work inflows and improved economic sentiment. Export markets within Asia also contributed to demand, providing stability despite subdued domestic consumption. As the quarter progressed, the market continued to witness heightened price pressures as colder temperatures pushed up coal prices, limiting Fly Ash production. Supply constraints became a significant driver of price increases, even as the downstream cement industry displayed sluggish activity with reduced production rates and factory shutdowns in East China. The imbalance between limited supply and tepid demand kept prices elevated, reflecting the broader cost pressures in the energy sector. However, by the quarter ended, the market saw a shift toward correction. Destocking activities intensified, with suppliers offloading inventories in bulk, especially targeting Southeast Asian markets. The bearish trend emerged as procurement from the cement sector remained weak and export demand softened. However, despite this correction, the overall quarterly trend remained positive, with Fly Ash prices closing at USD 16/MT FOB Shanghai, underpinned by earlier supply constraints and seasonal demand recovery.
Europe
The European Fly Ash market showed a 5% increase in Q4 2024 compared to Q3, largely driven by fluctuating demand conditions and supply chain challenges. Early in the quarter, Fly Ash prices declined due to weak demand from the construction and cement industries. Persistent economic and political uncertainties across the Eurozone led to reduced orders in residential, commercial, and civil engineering projects. Although input costs eased, the overall market remained subdued, with several manufacturers scaling back operations to align with reduced demand. As the quarter progressed, Fly Ash prices stabilized in November. Ample supply of Fly Ash and disruptions at Hamburg’s port due to the ongoing modernization project caused inventory accumulation, further suppressing market activity. Export demand also remained limited, reflecting the lack of arbitrage opportunities. By quarter-end, the market remained bearish, with prices ending at USD 26/MT FOB Hamburg in December. Prolonged holiday-related slowdowns and cautious procurement compounded the demand slump. Overall, Q4 was marked by declining prices, oversupply, and persistent challenges in Europe’s construction sector, leaving participants grappling with weak offtakes and limited recovery prospects.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Fly Ash market in North American region experienced a mixed trend, influenced by various significant factors. The initial quarter, the price rose by 12.7% due to increased freight rates, which have driven up the cost of the product. Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in July, after being unchanged the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher nonfuel and fuel prices each contributed to the July. Despite an increase in price, the downstream construction activity only on moderate range in July. Rising interest rates and economic uncertainty are pressuring the U.S. housing market, hinting at a bearish short-term outlook.
The second and third month of quarter declined sharply due to the eased costs for imported materials from China. Demand from the construction sector remained weak due to a tight lending environment for construction projects and declining commercial property values. Meanwhile, ocean freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America fell by 15.04% compared to the previous month, reflecting declining demand.
Despite these challenges, the quarter ended with Fly Ash priced at USD 105/MT CFR Louisiana, signaling a persisting negative pricing environment.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 for Fly Ash pricing in the APAC region has been characterized by stability, with prices holding steady throughout. Several factors have influenced market prices during this period. The balanced supply and demand dynamics, coupled with stable production levels, have contributed to the consistent pricing environment. Additionally, the overall subdued demand from the construction sector, impacted by various challenges such as heavy rainfall, property market struggles, and economic uncertainties, has kept prices unchanged.
In China, which has experienced the maximum price changes, the market trends have followed a similar pattern of stability. Despite facing disruptions such as heavy rains and a slowdown in construction activities, the Fly Ash market in China has remained relatively balanced. Seasonal fluctuations and the ongoing property crisis have influenced pricing trends, with minimal changes recorded compared to the same quarter last year.
The quarter-ending price for Fly Ash in China stands at USD 15/MT FOB Shanghai, reflecting the stable pricing environment that has prevailed throughout Q3 2024.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a significant decline in Fly Ash prices in the European region, with Germany experiencing the most substantial price changes. The market was influenced by several key factors, including weakened demand from the construction sector, surplus supply, and logistical disruptions in shipping routes. The ongoing downturn in new construction projects, coupled with reduced industrial activity and congested ports, contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the European Fly Ash market faced challenges from elevated freight costs and economic uncertainties, further dampening demand.
In Germany specifically, the Fly Ash market saw a negative trend, with prices decreasing by 7% from the previous quarter. The correlation in price changes between the first and second half of the quarter was noted at -4%, reflecting a consistent downward trajectory. Despite these challenges, the quarter-ending price for Fly Ash FOB Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 27/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region. Plant shutdowns during the quarter further disrupted supply chains, exacerbating the pricing pressures faced by market participants.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Fly Ash market saw a pronounced upward trend in pricing, primarily driven by several key factors. These included increased construction activities, strong demand for construction materials, and rising freight rates. The construction industry experienced substantial job growth and a significant decrease in unemployment, boosting Fly Ash demand. Additionally, global freight charges surged due to higher a demand for ocean freight space and tighter vessel availability, which further inflated import costs.
In the USA, where the most significant price fluctuations occurred, the Fly Ash market exhibited a clear bullish trend. Seasonal construction booms and improved economic conditions contributed to increased purchasing activity, leading to a notable price surge from Q1 2024. Prices rose by 6% quarter-over-quarter, with a significant 17% increase in the first half of Q2 compared to the latter half. This rise highlighted the impact of restocking activities and heightened material demand.
By the end of Q2, Fly Ash prices in the USA reached USD 102/MT CFR Louisiana. This consistent increase reflects robust demand and constrained supply dynamics, with no major plant shutdowns or disruptions reported during the quarter. The overall trend indicates a steadily escalating pricing environment, driven by ongoing construction sector growth and logistical challenges.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Fly Ash market in the APAC region maintained stable prices, reflecting a balanced supply and demand scenario. This stability was due to moderate inventory levels, consistent manufacturing output, and steady demand from the construction sector. Key factors contributing to this equilibrium included stable coal production, adequate raw material availability, and predictable downstream demand. The absence of major disruptions or plant shutdowns further supported market stability, ensuring a smooth supply chain. In China, the most significant price fluctuations occurred within the region. Increased construction activity following the Spring Festival and a gradual recovery in real estate led to higher Fly Ash consumption. However, these factors were counterbalanced by higher inventories and slower economic activity, resulting in stable prices. Despite economic pressures and a sluggish non-manufacturing PMI, the construction sector's resilience contributed to this steadiness. Compared to Q1 2024, prices in China decreased by 6%, reflecting the market's adjustment to existing stock levels and moderate new orders. A price comparison between the first and second halves of Q2 showed no significant change, confirming the stability trend. The quarter ended with Fly Ash priced at USD 15/MT FOB Shanghai, indicating a stable market environment. This price stability suggests a neutral sentiment with minimal volatility, providing stakeholders with a consistent and predictable market outlook.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, Fly Ash prices in the European region continued to decline steadily due to subdued demand and ample supply. The construction sector, a major consumer of Fly Ash, faced significant challenges including high financing costs, regulatory burdens, and economic uncertainty. These issues led to reduced construction activity and, consequently, lower demand for Fly Ash. Suppliers benefited from improved delivery times and greater subcontractor availability, which further contributed to market stability and downward pressure on prices. Although there were some signs of easing in new orders toward the end of the quarter, overall sentiment remained cautious, with no major plant shutdowns reported. Germany experienced the most notable price changes, with construction firms grappling with a persistent decline in new orders and high input costs, exacerbating the weak demand for Fly Ash. The construction PMI remained consistently below the neutral mark, reflecting sluggish market conditions. Seasonal trends offered little relief, as the typically stronger summer months did not significantly boost activity. Fly Ash prices dropped by 9% from the previous quarter and saw a 3% decrease between the first and second halves of the quarter, underscoring the ongoing bearish market sentiment. By the end of the quarter, the price settled at USD 29/MT FOB Hamburg in Germany. This continuous decline highlights a negative pricing environment, reflective of broader economic challenges and the construction sector's persistent struggles.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter, the price of Fly Ash decreased by contrast in January due to several factors affecting the pricing dynamics. The Arctic Blast of January brought havoc to the USA, causing extreme cold temperatures and widespread disruptions across industries. One major consequence was the temporary closure of the Port of Houston, a critical hub for shipping every other commodity including Fly Ash. A ripple effect of increased demand and limited supply pushed product prices upwards. The scarcity created by supply disruptions coincided with the heightened demand from construction, fuelling a significant price hike in the Fly Ash market during this timeframe.
The rest month of this quarter's price declined as the normalcy in weather conditions and further fall in freight charges all contributed to negative price movement. Despite this, the US market was supported by cheaper imports from overseas, and some merchants stocked up on Fly Ash due to disruptions in the ocean route, leading to scarcity.
Quicker deliveries reportedly reflected a continued normalization of supply chains and sufficient stock holdings at vendors. Additionally, the increasing confidence of construction companies in recent industry developments contributed to market stability.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Fly Ash pricing dynamics in the APAC region, particularly in China, witnessed fluctuations and a downward trend. The market situation in China was bearish, primarily driven by weakened demand from the downstream construction sector. Despite an increase in thermal power generation, overall market demand experienced a seasonal weakening trend, leading to a gradual decline in Fly Ash prices. The oversupply in the market further contributed to the price decrease. The Fly Ash industry struggled to compensate for the demand gap created by the downturn in the real estate industry, despite some increases in investment and construction of major projects. The local funding situation in China was average, impacting the overall market demand performance. However, it is important to note that the market was influenced by oversupply and weakened demand during this period. In conclusion, the final quarter's price for Fly Ash FOB Shanghai in China was USD 16/MT, reflecting the overall bearish trend and the impact of market dynamics on pricing.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Fly Ash in the European region were influenced by various factors beyond the conventional top three. While the overall trend in pricing was bearish, with a decline in prices, the market situation in Germany stood out with pronounced fluctuations. The construction sector in Germany experienced ongoing decline and uncertainty, leading to reduced demand for construction materials, including Fly Ash. The construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicated a sluggish trend, remaining below the limit threshold for an extended period. Moreover, the persistently muted global economy, inflation, and project postponements further dampened demand in the construction and cement sectors. At the close of the first quarter, new orders sustained a sharp decline, hampered by a mix of stringent financial conditions, elevated prices, and market ambiguity. Conversely, both employment and purchasing activity among constructors experienced a slightly swifter decline in March compared to the previous month. The primary factor weighing down total industry activity remained the housing sector, witnessing a significant and slightly accelerated decline in output levels compared to February. Commercial project work also experienced a sharp decrease, albeit at the slowest rate seen in five months, while civil engineering activity displayed renewed weakness. Therefore, the overall sector remained subdued, leading to stagnant demand for Fly Ash.
