For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In North America, the fatty acid market, particularly in USA experienced a significant price surge throughout Q4 2024, primarily driven by global palm oil market instability. October prices increased due to higher palm oil costs resulting from decreased Malaysian production and robust demand from Asia.
November saw a sharp 14.18% price increase due to severe Malaysian floods impacting palm oil supply. Moreover, Indonesian policy changes including B40 mandate and higher export taxes, restricted availability. December saw a further 2.1% price increase in USA. The final price increase in December resulted from persistently tight global palm oil supplies. This was compounded by strong US personal care sector growth, a shift towards premium products, and increased input costs.
The overall trend for the fourth quarter of 2024 revealed a significant upward trajectory in US fatty acid prices, indicating a substantial increase throughout the period. This upward trend underscores the considerable vulnerability of the US fatty acid market to fluctuations in the global palm oil market, as well as to the broader pressures of domestic inflation affecting input costs and raw material prices.
APAC
The APAC fatty acid market, particularly in Indonesia, experienced a substantial upward price trend throughout Q4 2024. The primary driver was the palm oil market's instability, characterized by supply disruptions, increased demand, and reduced inventories.
Indonesia experienced a rise in fatty acid prices in October. This was driven by higher palm oil prices resulting from increased demand from India and China, production declines in Malaysia (influenced by a dry season and a new tariff), and dwindling Indonesian stock levels. Strong demand from India's personal care sector, particularly for surfactants, further fueled the price increase.
As for November, Fatty acid prices in Indonesia surged by 23.2% , primarily due to a sharp rise in palm oil futures. This was attributed to supply disruptions in Malaysia (severe flooding impacting plantations and operations) and Indonesia's B40 policy. Indonesia's decision to raise export taxes and levies further complicated the situation, driving buyers towards Malaysia and increasing demand and prices there. Rising raw material costs presented significant challenges for the personal care sector in Indonesia.
Despite a smaller price increase of 1.8%, Fatty Acid prices remained elevated in December. Indonesia faced significant supply constraints due to low palm oil inventories, government policies favoring biodiesel, deforestation, and the nascent stage of sustainable intercropping. This tight supply situation, coupled with increased purchasing activity by Indonesian manufacturers and robust demand (driven by high personal care consumption and export growth), allowed manufacturers to raise prices to protect margins. The Indonesian manufacturing sector's improvement, with increased domestic and export orders, supported the modest production boost.
Europe
The Fatty Acid market in Europe experienced a strong upward price trend throughout Q4 2024. The primary driver was the palm oil market's volatility, influenced by supply disruptions, increased demand, and reduced inventories. While the personal care sector’s performance was mixed, the impact of supply-side constraints on palm oil dominated, resulting in a consistently bullish market for Fatty Acids during the quarter.
October's price increase stemmed from higher palm oil costs due to increased demand (India, China), Malaysian production declines (dry season, new tariff), and low Indonesian stock levels, compounded by strong German personal care demand.
November saw a 13.27% price jump, fueled by Malaysian flooding disrupting palm oil supply and Indonesian policy changes (B40). Increased export taxes in Indonesia diverted buyers to Malaysia, further escalating prices. While festive shopping boosted European personal care retail, rising input costs negatively affected manufacturers.
December maintained elevated prices due to Indonesia's low palm oil inventories and biodiesel policies creating a tight supply situation. Despite moderate year-end personal care demand, supply constraints kept prices high. Overall, Q4 2024 witnessed a consistently strong upward price trend for fatty acids, dominated by palm oil market instability.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, fatty acid prices in the North America, particularly U.S. experienced a notable upward trend, driven by rising production costs and stable demand from the personal care sector. July started with an increase in prices due to high palm oil costs, with Malaysian exports rising 40% to 1.69 million tonnes. Although there were supply pressures from reduced manufacturing activity, producers maintained higher prices to support profitability amid muted demand.
August continued this upward momentum as the personal care sector showed consistent inquiries. Palm oil stocks in Malaysia reached a six-month high of 1.88 million metric tons, and while palm oil exports decreased, production rose by 2.87%. The crude palm oil reference price rose to USD 839.53 per tonne, influencing market conditions for fatty acid producers. In September, fatty acid prices climbed further as demand remained stable despite a slight decline in palm oil production. Increased palm oil prices due to rising CPO reference prices raised concerns about future production costs. Overall, the quarter reflected a complex interplay of demand stability and supply chain pressures impacting pricing strategies in the fatty acid market.
Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were on the higher side. The quarter-on-quarter comparison recorded a significant increase of 5%, with prices showing an incline of 6% between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 2030/MT of Fatty Acid DEL USGC in US, reflecting the prevailing upward pricing trend.
APAC
In Q3 2024, fatty acid prices in APAC region, particularly in China consistently rose, primarily driven by strong demand from the personal care sector and fluctuations in palm oil prices. The quarter began with a notable increase in palm oil exports from Malaysia, climbing 39.92% from 1.21 million tonnes in June to 1.69 million tonnes in July. This surge, coupled with increased inquiries from manufacturers, pushed prices higher. Additionally, transportation costs rose due to port congestion, alongside a 2.8% increase in Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) reference price to USD 800.75 per tonne. In August, prices continued their ascent, supported by sufficient palm oil availability and rising production levels, despite a 9.74% decline in exports. By September, demand remained robust, with concerns over potential declines in palm oil production due to the upcoming northeast monsoon season. Increased domestic consumption in India and festive season restocking further fueled price hikes, solidifying the upward trend for fatty acids. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were on the higher side. The quarter-on-quarter comparison recorded a significant increase of 6%, with prices showing an incline of 8% between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 2450/MT of Fatty Acid C8-C10 FOB Shanghai in China, reflecting the prevailing upward pricing trend.
Europe
In Q3 2024, fatty acid prices in Europe, particularly Germany displayed a fluctuating trend, influenced by varying demand from the personal care sector and palm oil supply dynamics. July began with a downward trend in fatty acid prices, primarily due to reduced consumption from the downstream surfactant and detergent industries during the holiday season. Despite a significant 40% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, reaching 1.69 million tonnes, manufacturing activity slowed as indicated by a decline in Germany’s official statistics. In August, prices began to recover, supported by steady demand in the personal care sector, although manufacturers scaled back purchases due to planned maintenance. Malaysian palm oil stocks rose to their highest level in six months, ensuring adequate supply despite a slight decrease in exports. By September, fatty acid prices rose again, driven by sustained demand and a 9.3% increase in palm oil exports. However, concerns about stagnant production in Malaysia and Indonesia, alongside rising crude palm oil prices, hinted at potential upward pressure on manufacturing costs. Overall, Q3 reflected a complex interplay of demand, supply stability, and cost factors impacting pricing strategies in the fatty acid market. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were on the higher side. The prices showed an incline of 5% between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 3200/MT of Fatty Acid C8-C10 FOB Hamburg in Germany, reflecting the prevailing upward pricing trend.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Fatty Acid market experienced a mixed trend, driven by several key factors. In April, the rise in Fatty Acid was mainly due to rising production costs, primarily influenced by the bullish prices of Palm Oil. Additionally, a decrease in operating rates among manufacturing firms intensified pressure on the supply side. Manufacturers responded to the bullish trends in upstream prices and the limited availability of finished goods by maintaining high prices to enhance profitability. However, towards the progressement of second quarter of 2024, the prices of Fatty Acid have started to move within a narrow range.
In the USA, where price changes were most pronounced, a Seasonal factors also played a role, with typical Q2 demand fluctuations contributing to the overall price dynamics. The correlation between rising natural gas inventories and reduced energy costs also influenced the market, aligning with the bearish sentiment from falling Palm Oil prices globally.
Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, prices saw a slight decline of 1%. The quarter concluded with Fatty Acid Stearic Acid Triple Pressed DEL USGC priced at USD 1880/MT in the USA. Notably, there were no significant disruptions or plant shutdowns reported during this period, further underscoring the managed supply conditions amidst the declining price trend.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Fatty Acid market in the APAC region experienced upward pricing trends due to several key factors. Increasing upstream Palm Oil costs, driven by constrained production and heightened demand, played a pivotal role. Additionally, active inquiries from the downstream personal care sector bolstered market sentiments, prompting manufacturers to maintain higher price levels. The supply side also faced challenges, with limited availability of finished goods exacerbated by operational disruptions and plant shutdowns, impacting the overall market balance. China, in particular, recorded the most substantial price adjustments. The nation saw an uptick in Fatty Acid prices, primarily due to intensified demand from the personal care industry and increased procurement of Palm Oil. This quarter, China's Fatty Acid market experienced a 3% increase compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a strong, consistent rising trend. Seasonality also contributed to this trend, as post-holiday manufacturing activities surged, driving higher procurement needs. The correlation between downstream demand and upstream cost pressures was evident, leading to sustained positive market sentiments. Comparing the first and second half of Q2, China saw a 1% increase in prices, underscoring a persistent upward trajectory. Concluding the quarter, the price of Fatty Acid C8-C10 FOB Shanghai stood at USD 2230/MT, highlighting a positive pricing environment driven by resilient demand and constrained supply dynamics. The overall pricing sentiment for Fatty Acid in the APAC region, particularly in China, has been predominantly positive, reflecting robust market fundamentals and anticipations of continued growth despite supply-side challenges.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed an upward trend in Fatty Acid prices across the Europe Region, driven by several critical factors. Elevated production costs, largely influenced by bullish Palm Oil prices, have significantly impacted Fatty Acid pricing. Reduced operating rates among manufacturing firms have exacerbated supply-side pressures, further escalating costs. Additionally, rising demand from downstream industries, particularly the Personal Care sector, has contributed to the price surge. A notable factor was the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, which forced vessels to reroute, leading to longer transit times and higher freight charges, thereby inflating transportation costs for Fatty Acid. Focusing on Germany, which recorded the most substantial price changes, the upward trajectory in prices has been pronounced. The German market has experienced a marked increase in Fatty Acid prices due to reduced manufacturing activities and higher input costs. The correlation between supply constraints and rising demand has reinforced the bullish market sentiment. Seasonal factors also played a role, with the second quarter typically seeing higher demand for personal care products. From a year-over-year perspective, the percentage change indicates a significant price rise, while the comparison with the previous quarter in 2024 shows a 27% increase. The price difference between the first and second half of the quarter was marginal at 1%, reflecting a consistent upward trend. The latest quarter-ending price for Fatty Acid C8-C10 FOB Hamburg in Germany stands at USD 3130/MT, underscoring the positive pricing environment throughout the quarter. This upward momentum highlights the confluence of supply-side constraints, increased production costs, and robust downstream demand, solidifying the bullish sentiment in the Fatty Acid market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Fatty Acid in the North America region, specifically in the USA, were influenced by a combination of factors beyond the conventional top three. While the top influences included reduced production activities during the winter months, limited availability of finished goods, and inquiries from the downstream Personal Care industries, there were additional nuanced factors at play.
In January, the prices of Fatty Acid have escalated in the domestic market of the USA. amid an increase in the upstream, Palm Oil prices an upward shift has been observed in the pricing dynamics of downstream derivatives including fatty Acid. Thus, foreseeing the rise in procurement levels, coupled with low supplies, the manufacturers have opted to keep their prices at higher levels. Market sources have reported that Palm Oil supplies have dwindled in key manufacturing nations Indonesia and Malaysia due to increased focus on biodiesel production. According to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of February dwindled to their lowest levels in seven months as production hit a 10-month low, offsetting the slowdown in exports.
Overall, the pricing environment for Fatty Acid in Q1 2024 in the North American region has been relatively stable, with some fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics. The latest quarter-ending price for Fatty Acid Stearic Acid Triple Pressed DEL USGC in the USA was recorded at USD 1810/MT.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the pricing environment for Fatty Acid in the APAC region has been predominantly stable, with some variations observed in specific countries. In China, the largest market for Fatty Acid, prices have seen significant fluctuations. The overall trend in the market has been influenced by factors such as the demand from downstream industries, availability of upstream Palm Oil, and geopolitical tensions impacting shipping routes.
In addition, in February, after the Spring Festival Holidays, the Chinese downstream manufacturers were also interested in the replenishment of their inventories, thus boosting their inquiries to the manufacturers in the exporting nations of Indonesia and Malaysia.
In China, prices of Fatty Acid have increased by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter. This rise can be attributed to an uptick in demand from the downstream Personal Care industries and higher prices of upstream Palm Oil. However, the market has also faced challenges due to reduced manufacturing activity and disruptions in shipping routes, leading to increased freight rates.
The quarter-ending price for Fatty Acid C8-C10 FOB Shanghai in China is USD 2170/MT.
Europe
The Fatty Acid market in Europe experienced a mixed pricing environment in Q1 2024. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. Firstly, the demand from the downstream Personal Care industries remained subdued, leading to weak market sentiments.
On the supply side, the operating rates of Fatty Acid manufacturing firms were under pressure due to tepid demand from the terminal industries. Some companies even initiated scheduled maintenance during this period to alleviate inventory pressure. However, the availability of Fatty Acid remained sufficient to meet demand. This, coupled with abundant gas inventory levels, eased supply concerns and lowered European gas prices. According to insights shared by regional manufacturers, palm oil has been traded at a premium in Europe due to higher freight costs, making it even more expensive for European buyers, due to shipping disruptions in the Red Sea caused by geopolitical tensions.
In terms of price trends, Germany experienced significant price changes compared to the previous quarter. The market started the quarter with lower prices, but they gradually increased towards the end. The quarter-ending price for Fatty Acid C8-C10 FOB Hamburg in Germany was USD 2650/MT.
