For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 for Ethylene Oxide in North America has been characterized by significant price increases driven by a variety of factors. Tight supply situations, influenced by low production rates and maintenance shutdowns across the region, have led to a bullish market sentiment.
In the USA specifically, Ethylene Oxide prices have seen the most notable changes, with prices steadily rising. Market participants have reported increased feedstock Ethylene prices, contributing to elevated production costs and subsequently pushing Ethylene Oxide prices upwards. Demand from downstream industries has been stable to moderate, with inquiries from Latin America and Mexico boosting export prices. Additionally, disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine and maintenance shutdowns at key plants have further tightened supply, leading to price hikes.
Comparing to the same quarter last year, Ethylene Oxide prices have seen a significant 14% increase. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter change in 2024 recorded a 11% increase, indicating a consistent upward trend. The second half of the quarter saw a 4% price increase compared to the first half. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 1493/MT of Ethylene Oxide Contract FOB US Gulf in the USA, reflecting a positive and increasing pricing environment.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the Ethylene Oxide market in the APAC region has experienced increasing prices, driven by a combination of factors. The quarter has been characterized by stable demand from downstream industries, particularly in the Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates sectors. This steady demand, coupled with tight supply conditions, has led to a bullish pricing environment. Additionally, rising feedstock Ethylene prices have contributed to the overall upward trend in Ethylene Oxide prices. In Japan, the market has seen the most significant price changes, with prices ending the quarter at USD 919/MT of Ethylene Oxide Ex-Osaka. The quarter saw a 3% price increase from the first half to the second half, highlighting a strengthening pricing trend. Despite a -4% decrease from the same quarter last year, the quarter-on-quarter change recorded a 2% increase, indicating a more positive pricing environment in the current quarter. Overall, the Japanese market has exhibited a consistent increase in prices, reflecting a positive sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region experienced a significant increase in Ethylene Oxide prices, driven by multiple factors. Tight supply chains, influenced by low operating rates and disruptions at key production facilities, contributed to the price surge. Additionally, rising feedstock Ethylene costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, impacting oil prices, further propelled the upward pricing trend. Netherlands, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes during the quarter. The overall trend in pricing showed a consistent increase, with seasonality and correlation playing a significant role in price fluctuations. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were down by 5%, reflecting the recent surge. Furthermore, a 1% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 was followed by a notable 4% increase between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price of USD 1428/MT for Ethylene Oxide FD Rotterdam in Netherlands marked the culmination of this positive pricing environment, highlighting the ongoing upward trajectory in prices.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Ethylene Oxide market in the MEA region experienced declining prices, influenced by several key factors. The market was characterized by a lower pricing environment, with minimal fluctuations observed. Factors such as weak demand from downstream industries, adequate supply levels, and moderate Ethylene Oxide feedstock prices contributed to the overall decline in prices. In Saudi Arabia, which saw the most significant price changes, the market trend mirrored that of the broader region. The percentage change from the same quarter last year stood at -1%, indicating a slight decrease in prices over the year. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter change of -3% highlighted a marginal decline in prices from the previous quarter in 2024. Interestingly, the comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variation, underscoring the consistent pricing trend observed. The quarter-ending price for Ethylene Oxide USD 1243 per MT FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia, reflecting the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Overall, prices of Ethylene oxide have witnessed an uptrend across the US market during the second quarter of 2024 on the back of steady downstream demand and tight supply. The inquiries from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry have been moderate in the domestic market.
Most market transactions were also mainly based on a need-on-demand basis. On the macroeconomic front, the annual inflation in the US slowed to 3.3% in May 2024, below 3.4% in April but still above the hope of the Federal Reserve which is 2%. In the meantime, inquiries from the overseas market have also been steady.
The feedstock Ethylene prices have increased which resulted in the high production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. On the other hand, the material availability was limited amid force majeure by the major manufacturer of Ethylene oxide Dow Chemical Company, Plaquemine, Louisiana in the backdrop of a series of explosions and fires that resulted in the involuntary unplanned shutdown. Although earlier it was expected that the plant might restart in early Q2, now there is an expectation that the plant might restart towards the end of Q2 of 2024. Consequently, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB US Gulf were settled at USD 1390/MT with a month-on-month increment of 3.0% during June 2024.
Asia- Pacific
Ethylene oxide prices have inched lower across the Japanese market during the second quarter of 2024 in the wake of excessive supply and thin derivative demand. The cost support from feedstock Ethylene was limited to Ethylene oxide as its prices settled on the lower end throughout the quarter, contributing to a downward shift in the price realization of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. On the other side, the inquiries for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Mono ethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry have been largely fragile with buyer appetite remaining tepid, with broader macroeconomic pressure continuing to limit the need for material from derivative sectors. Also, low demand from the end-user sector remained pressuring the domestic Ethylene oxide markets, with buyers maintaining a hand-to-mouth approach. On the other hand, manufacturers of Ethylene oxide have been operating at low rates to cope with weak margins caused by oversupply and low demand growth. Overall, the availability of Ethylene oxide was abundant which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. Therefore, prices of Ethylene oxide Ex- Osaka were settled at USD 865/MT during June 2024.
Europe
Ethylene oxide prices have showcased a bearish rally across the European market during the second quarter of 2024 amid quiet trading activity, with buyers reluctant to commit to transactions. The feedstock Ethylene prices have decreased amid weak demand from other industries which in turn resulted in the low production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market, leading to the downward shift in the price realization of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market.
In addition, the demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industries has remained consistently subdued, with market players gearing for the summer downturn amid seasonal holidays. The spot market transactions were also muted, with buyers remaining on the sideline. In the broader economic context, German inflation fell more than expected in June, resuming its downward trend after two consecutive months of increases, and leaving the door open for another rate cut by the European Central Bank in September. Also, the decline in the inflation rate would not affect Ethylene oxide demand within the downstream industry in the short term.
Moreover, the manufacturing firms were still operating at reduced rates to balance out underperforming downstream demand. Despite this, the material availability was sufficient to cater to current downstream demand as new orders declined, which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide. Thus, prices of Ethylene oxide FD Hamburg were settled at USD 1343/MT during June 2024.
Middle-East
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, Ethylene oxide prices have continued to decline in the Saudi Arabian market as concern over reduced downstream demand remained intact throughout the quarter, as buyers complained about the unsatisfactory outlook for end-product demand. Hence purchases remain tied to basic only needs. The feedstock Ethylene prices have persistently declined amid adequate inventories and limited demand which resulted in the low production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market, contributing to a downward shift in the price realization of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. On the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry were tepid as consumption from the end-user sector has declined which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. The spot market transactions were also average as terminal firms showed less enthusiasm. Also, downstream production margins remained weak, with buyers citing poor profitability on key derivatives such as Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates. Moreover, Saudi Arabia's annual inflation rate held at 1.6% in April, underpinned once again by an increase in housing rents. Meanwhile, demand from the overseas markets has also softened with expectations that it may not recover soon amid external challenges. The supply of Ethylene oxide was abundant amid a decline in new orders to meet the overall downstream demand which further deteriorated the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. Therefore, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB AL Jubail were settled at USD 1282/MT during June.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Ethylene oxide prices have witnessed mixed sentiments across the US market during the first quarter of 2024. During the initial Q1 of 2024, Ethylene oxide prices have declined in the domestic market. The feedstock Ethylene prices have decreased which resulted in the low production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market.
These lead to the bearish market sentiments of Ethylene oxide among the manufacturers. In addition, demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry was sluggish from both the domestic and international market which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. However, towards the end of Q1 2024, Ethylene oxide prices strengthened in the domestic market as manufacturers faced a winter storm, which caused several petrochemical units to shut down operations or lower operating rates in the domestic market.
Moreover, Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited Clear Lake, Texas, and the Dow Chemical Company Seadrift, Texas in the US have shut down their Ethylene plant ahead of subfreezing weather conditions which led to supply shortage in the domestic market. Moreover, on the demand front inquiries from the downstream MEG and Ethoxylates industry remained steady in the domestic market. As a result, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB US Gulf were settled at USD 1354/MT during March 2024.
Asia- Pacific
Throughout the first quarter of Q1 of 2024, Ethylene oxide prices in the Japanese market surged due to rising upstream costs and limited domestic supply. The strong pricing of its feedstock, Ethylene, pushed Ethylene oxide prices higher domestically, fostering positive sentiment among manufacturers. In addition, Crude oil prices remained above $80 per barrel throughout February, signalling market tightening amid ongoing OPEC+ production cuts and disruptions in shipping routes such as the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Moreover, during the holiday season, downstream factory production varied, with some focusing on depleting inventory, thereby increasing demand for Ethylene oxide within the domestic market. Furthermore, disruptions in the Red Sea led to elevated freight rates. Conversely, manufacturing firms operated at reduced capacities due to decreased downstream demand, resulting in constrained material availability domestically. Overall, the demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry was moderate in the domestic market. As a result, Ethylene oxide prices settled at USD 936/MT in March 2024 on an Ex- Osaka basis.
Europe
Ethylene oxide prices have continued to show an upward trend across the German market during the first quarter of 2024 on the back of high upstream costs and tight supply. The cost support from feedstock Ethylene prices was sufficient on Ethylene oxide as its prices settled on the higher end in the domestic market. Furthermore, crude oil prices have been strengthening over the past few quarters following a string of drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries, sparking concern about fuel supply security. The rise in crude oil prices has further raised the overall production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. In addition, reduced domestic production in response to a decline in downstream demand, leading to the limited availability of finished stock of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. However, demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Ethoxylates and Glycol derivatives industry has persistently dropped amid macroeconomic headwinds. Nonetheless, it had a limited bearing on the prices of Ethylene oxide. The spot market transactions were also average in the domestic market. As a result, prices of Ethylene oxide FD Hamburg were settled at USD 1464/MT during March 2024.
Middle- East
Ethylene oxide prices have been marching higher in the Saudi Arabian market throughout the first quarter of 2024. The feedstock Ethylene prices have increased followed by strong crude oil prices which resulted in the high production cost of Ethylene oxide, supporting the prices to follow an uptrend in the domestic market. In addition, global crude oil prices were extending gains, with crude hitting past the USD 91/barrel mark, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East which could disrupt supply amid output cuts by OPEC and its allies. The strong crude oil prices have further raised the overall production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. However, the inquiries from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol industry remained tepid in the domestic market. Nonetheless, it had a limited bearing on the prices of Ethylene oxide. In the meantime, purchasing activity from the overseas market has also diminished amid unfavourable economic conditions. On the other side, the participants failed to see a significant improvement in downstream demand during March, which is expected to last during the upcoming term with the impact of the nearing Eid al-Fitr holiday. The material availability was limited to meet the downstream demand, contributing to the upward shift in the price realization of Ethylene oxide. As a ripple effect, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB AL Jubail were settled at USD 1359/MT during March 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Ethylene oxide prices have experienced a mixed bag across the US market during the fourth quarter of 2023. During October 2023, Ethylene oxide has increased significantly due to limited material availability in the domestic market. The cost support from feedstock Ethylene was sufficient as its prices settled on the higher side in the domestic market. However, demand from the downstream Ethoxylates and Monoethylene Glycol industry has moderate in the domestic market. In addition, the Ethylene oxide availability continues to be tight as Dow’s Plaquemine, plant remains down until Q2 2024 which promoted the manufacturers to raise their quotation.
However, during November and December, Ethylene oxide prices have inched lower in the domestic market. The feedstock Ethylene prices have decreased amid weak demand from other industries which in turn led to the low production cost of Ethylene oxide. In addition, demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Ethoxylates and Monoethylene Glycol industry has remained tepid amid the off-seasonal dullness along with macro-economic headwinds including high inflationary pressure and rising interest rates, leading the bearish market sentiments of Ethylene oxide among the manufactures. In addition, spot market transactions were also average as the enthusiasm of terminal firms to enter the market was not strong.
In addition, the supply of Ethylene oxide was limited influenced by an outage at Dow Plaquemine which has been down since an explosion occurred in mid-July, but it had limited bearing over the prices of Ethylene oxide. In addition, LyondellBasell Industries in Bayport Texas has permanently shut down its Ethylene oxide production as Ineos Oxide purchased LyondellBasell's Ethylene oxide and derivative production facility in Bayport underwood Texas, for $ 700 million. Thus, as a result, Ethylene oxide prices spot FOB US Gulf were settled at USD 1332/MT during December 2023.
Asia-Pacific
Ethylene oxide prices have witnessed mixed sentiments across the Asian market during the fourth quarter of 2023. During the initial of Q4 of 2023, Ethylene oxide prices have increased across the Japanese market. The cost pressure from feedstock Ethylene was sufficient on Ethylene oxide prices as its prices settled on the higher side in the domestic market. These lead to the bullish market sentiments of Ethylene oxide among the manufacturers. In addition, demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry has moderate in the domestic market. However, towards the end of the quarter of 2023, Ethylene oxide prices have inched lower in the domestic market. The demand from the downstream Ethoxylates and Monoethylene Glycol industry has tepid amid macro-economic headwinds and low seasonality in the domestic market. The spot market transactions were also average. In addition, market participants reported that the lack of demand kept exerting pressure on the seller’s side as buyers either made limited purchases when necessary or stayed in a wait-and-see stance in anticipation of additional drops. Furthermore, the feedstock Ethylene prices have dropped which resulted in the low production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. In addition, Japan’s manufacturing activity declined in November, highlighting the fragility of the economy amid weak demand and inflation. On the supply side, the material availability was high, putting pressure on the manufacturers to clear their inventories at low prices. Therefore, prices of Ethylene oxide Ex- Osaka were settled at USD 940/MT during December 2023.
Europe
Ethylene oxide prices have showcased mixed bags in the European market during the fourth quarter of 2023. During October 2023, Ethylene oxide prices have significantly increased in the German market due to inadequate material availability in the domestic market. The feedstock Ethylene prices have increased amid tight supply which in turn led to the high production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. The rise in the production cost has supported the prices to follow an upward trend across the domestic market. However, during November and December 2023, Ethylene oxide have decreased in the domestic market. The demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry have remained lukewarm due to macroeconomic headwinds including persistent inflationary pressure and high interest rates coupled with low seasonality which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide across the domestic market. Furthermore, BASF mapped out further cost cuts and scaled back investment spending; earnings and sales were at the lower end of its target ranges due to an uncertain global outlook. In addition, cost pressure from feedstock Ethylene was limited on the Ethylene oxide which further decreased the prices of Ethylene oxide. Furthermore, amid the destocking season manufacturers have cleared out their inventories at low prices. As a result, prices of Ethylene oxide FD Hamburg were settled at USD 1473/MT during December.
Middle East
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, Ethylene oxide prices have witnessed fluctuating trend across the Saudi Arabian market. During the initial of Q4 2023, Ethylene oxide prices have gained an upward trend in the domestic market. The increase in the prices was majorly attributed to the elevated feedstock Ethylene prices which in turn led to high production cost of Ethylene oxide. The demand from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry has increased from both the domestic and international market which promoted the manufacturers to raise their offers. However, towards the end of Q4, Ethylene oxide has surprisingly decreased in the domestic market. In the midst of off-season dullness and tepidness in the global economy, the demand for Ethylene oxide from the domestic and international market has been underwhelming and thus, the pace of inquiries from the downstream Ethoxylates and Monoethylene Glycol industry has remained tepid due to slow consumption from the end-user sector, leading the bearish market sentiments of Ethylene oxide among the manufacturers. Additionally, the feedstock Ethylene prices have decreased followed by low Naphtha prices which led to the low production cost of Ethylene oxide across the domestic market. Despite the turmoil in the Red Sea, upstream Crude oil prices have also dropped due to weak demand concerns and sufficient storage. The decline in Crude oil prices has further eased the overall manufacturing cost of Ethylene oxide across the domestic market. Furthermore, it is anticipated that prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to extend into the new year amidst tepid demand. Buyers are waiting for more clarity amid the ongoing war and growing economic problems. As a result, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB Al Jubail were settled at USD 1275/MT during December 2023.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Ethylene oxide prices have witnessed a mixed trend across the US market during the third quarter of 2023. During early 2023, Ethylene oxide prices have inched lower in the domestic market. The macroeconomic uncertainties, such as persistent inflationary pressure and high-interest rates by the central bank, have eroded the purchasing power of consumers. The demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Ethoxylates and monoethylene Glycol industry has remained tepid due to sluggish buying sentiments among the end-users, which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. Furthermore, the oversupply of feedstock Ethylene has limited the positive development of Ethylene oxide, thus supporting the prices to follow a downtrend. However, during the mid and final of 2023, Ethylene oxide prices have gained an upward momentum in the wake of high-cost pressure from feedstock Ethylene prices. Furthermore, the unexpected fire at Dow's Glycol 2 units, followed by multiple explosions at South of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, affected the production unit of several commodities. As a result, Dow in Plaquemine, Louisiana, US, put their feedstock Ethylene Oxide plant on unplanned shutdown amid a Glycol II unit explosion. However, this incident has not impacted downstream Ethoxylates and MEG supply amid subdued consumption from the end-user surfactant, PET, and other sectors. On the other side, the financial results of the second quarter released by one of the leading manufacturers of Ethylene Oxide, Dow Chemicals, reported net sales were $11.4 billion, down 27% compared with the previous year. Sales declined due to the lower demand and prices amid weak economic activity. Overall, high upstream prices raised the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market.
Asia-Pacific
Ethylene oxide prices have shown mixed sentiments across the Asian market during the third quarter of 2023. During the initial of Q3, Ethylene oxide prices declined in the Japanese market due to low demand from the downstream Ethoxylates as well as from the Monoethylene Glycol industry. The spot market transaction was also average, which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. On the other side, Japan's manufacturing Purchasing Manager's index dropped from 49.8 in June to 49.4 in July 2023, indicating a contraction in new orders. Furthermore, the level of inventories was enough to cater to overall downstream demand, which supported the prices to follow a downtrend in the domestic market. However, towards the end of the Q3, Ethylene oxide prices have inched higher in the domestic market. The feedstock Ethylene prices have continued to rise amid high upstream Naphtha prices, resulting in the strong production cost of Ethylene oxide. Although demand from the downstream industry has remained tepid amid persistent inflationary pressure and high-interest rates, it was insufficient to drive the price realizations of Ethylene oxide at the lower side.
Europe
Ethylene oxide prices have showcased fluctuations in the European market during the third quarter of 2023. During July, Ethylene oxide prices have demonstrated stagnancy with marginal increment of 0.4% in the French market owing to steady demand from downstream MEG industry and sufficient inventories in the domestic market. However, due to weak demand from the downstream Ethoxylates as well as from the Monoethylene Glycol industry, Ethylene oxide prices have decreased during August 2023. In addition, manufacturing firms were operating at reduced rates as manufacturers were cautious to build up excessive inventories in the domestic market. Despite this, the level of inventories was adequate to cater to overall downstream demand. Although, during September 2023, Ethylene oxide prices have gained an upward momentum. The feedstock Ethylene prices have increased amid high upstream Naphtha prices, resulting in the high production cost of Ethylene oxide. On the other side, the crude oil prices have increased with the tighter supply due to Saudi Arabia's oil output restriction and news that OPEC+ production dropped by more than 1 million barrels per day in July, which further impacted the overall production cost of Ethylene oxide. On the demand front, the demand from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol industry has improved, albeit at a slow pace in the domestic market. However, inquiries from other sectors, such as Ethoxylates, have remained tepid as Western markets were grappling with economic contractions and concerns of a looming recession, which weakened the buying sentiments of consumers.
Saudi Arabia
Prices of Ethylene oxide have shown a bullish rally across the Saudi Arabian market throughout the third quarter of 2023. The feedstock Ethylene prices have continued to rise, uplifted by strong Naphtha prices, which in turn resulted in the high production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. On the other side, global crude oil prices are on the upswing, driven by anticipation of extended production cuts by OPEC+ nations, which pressurizing the price realizations of feedstock Naphtha prices to stay optimistic. Moreover, there is an expectation that Saudi Arabia will continue to cut its oil production by another 1 million barrels until October, which results in further supply restraints and potential price increases in the crude oil market, which afterward impact the prices of several commodities, including Ethylene oxide. Demand from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol industry has remained moderate, and downstream procurements were mainly based on a need-on-demand basis. However, demand from the Ethoxylates industry has remained subdued amid sluggish buying sentiments among the end-users. However, the major producer of Ethylene oxide, Yanbu National Petrochemical Co (Yansab), reported a 90.5% year-on-year drop in its second-quarter net profit amid lower demand dynamics. Furthermore, the level of inventories was sufficient as a result of the normal operating rates in the domestic market. In addition, there were no supply chain bottlenecks or port congestion were observed by the market participants.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Ethylene oxide prices have decreased in the US market throughout the second quarter of 2023, supported by limited demand and sufficient inventories in the region. Although, feedstock Ethylene prices have shown fluctuation throughout the quarter. Initially, Ethylene prices have increased drastically; during the mid and final quarter, Ethylene prices have dropped significantly in the region. On the upstream front, Naphtha prices have inched lower in the given time frame, which supported the downshift in the prices of Ethylene oxide. In addition, macroeconomic factors such as restrictive interest rates and tightening credit from the regional banking turmoil have a cumulative impact on the downshift observed in the price realization of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. At the same time, the inflows of new orders from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol industries remained gloomy in the region. The market transactions were also average, as the enthusiasm of the terminal firm to enter the market was not strong. Additionally, on June 8, EPA officials and Maryland environmental and health officials held a meeting in Jessup, indicating that the facilities are reducing emissions and that the EPA is preparing new national rules to address updated assessments of new data on the health risks of Ethylene Oxide leaks. Therefore, Ethylene oxide FOB US Gulf prices were assessed at USD 1251/MT with a month-on-month decrement of 3.4% during June 2023.
Asia- Pacific
Ethylene oxide prices have gained a downward trend in the Japanese market during the second quarter of 2023, backed by limited demand and sufficient inventories in the market. The cost pressure from the feedstock Ethylene was inadequate as its prices progressed in a downward trend in the given time frame. In addition, upstream Naphtha prices have also been observed lower in the domestic market, which further weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide. Furthermore, the slowdown in the economy, high inflationary pressure, and rising interest rates have dampened the purchasing power of consumers. Meanwhile, demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene glycol (MEG) industry has slower-than-expected in the domestic market. The downstream procurement was mainly based on a need-on-demand basis. Furthermore, Japan's manufacturing activity contracted in June, dragged down by weak orders amid a global slowdown. The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index dropped from 50.6 in May to 49.8 in June, indicating a contraction in both industrial and manufacturing activity. Therefore, Ethylene oxide Ex- Osaka prices were assessed at USD 912/MT during June 2023.
Europe
Ethylene oxide prices have shown mixed sentiments in the European market during the second quarter of 2023. Although Ethylene prices have dropped throughout the quarter, Ethylene oxide prices have gained an upward trend during the initial and mid of the quarter. The upstream Naphtha prices have increased in the given time frame, which supported the prices to follow the uptrend. On the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream Ethoxylates industry were adequate, which strengthened the prices of Ethylene oxide in the region. Although, demand from the Monoethylene glycol (MEG) industry was stable to weak in the domestic market. However, during the final of the Q2, Ethylene oxide prices inched lower due to weak cost support from the upstream Naphtha. Furthermore, Eurozone businesses were squeezed by spiraling inflation as well as higher interest rates and were bracing for a slowdown in consumer spending amid heightened unemployment fears and higher mortgage rates eroding household finances. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream Ethylene glycol industry remained gloomy due to market uncertainty. Furthermore, shrinking domestic spending has forced factories to scale back production, slanting the sector into recessionary conditions. Therefore, prices of Ethylene oxide FD South Hampton were settled at USD 1509/MT during June 2023.
MEA
Ethylene oxide prices have continued to decline in the Saudi Arabian market throughout the second quarter of 2023, supported by weak demand and sufficient inventories. The cost pressure from feedstock Ethylene has been inadequate as its prices progressed in a downward trend in the given time frame. In addition, the upstream Naphtha prices have also been observed on the lighter side, thus easing the overall production cost of Ethylene oxide. On the demand side, the downstream Monoethylene glycol industry inquiries have remained tepid in the domestic market. The market transactions were relatively flat, which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the market. At the same time, demand from the overseas market has also decreased amidst global economic uncertainties. Furthermore, despite the weak downstream demand, the operating rates have remained normal in the domestic market as manufacturers speculate the further rise in demand. Moreover, the availability of finished stocks of Ethylene oxide has remained sufficient to cater to overall downstream demand, supporting the downshift in the prices of Ethylene in the domestic market. The market participants reported no supply disruptions or port congestion in the given time frame. Therefore, Ethylene oxide FOB Al Jubail prices were settled at USD 1160/MT during June 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Ethylene Oxide price movement oscillated during Q1 of 2023. At the beginning of Q1, Ethylene Oxide prices sank after EPA affirmed health hazards due to its carcinogenic air emissions. In the mid-quarter, prices rebounded and witnessed a surge due to affected production rates amid stressed availability of feedstock Ethylene supplies due to various plant shutdowns. It raised the cost support significantly, and Ethylene Oxide prices rose till the end of the quarter. The supply chain activities improved from the mid-quarter, which improved offtakes amid rising inflation and high-interest rates by Federal Reserve. At the end of the quarter, Ethylene Oxide prices in the USA hovered at USD 1515/MT.
Asia
The Ethylene Oxide price trend shifted sentiments during the 1st quarter of 2023. Initially, the prices fell due to sluggish demand and excess availability of feedstock Ethylene supplies from the middle east. However, from the mid-quarter, the price trend revamped, and production costs rose due to the stressed availability of the feedstock Ethylene. Because of inconsistent Crude Oil imports because of increased sanctions on Russian products, the feedstock Ethylene prices rose till the end of Q1. Due to high energy import prices in Japan amid noticeable currency depreciations and increased demand from downstream Glycol producers, the Ethylene Oxide prices remained bullish. At the end of Q1, 2023, Ethylene Oxide prices in China and Japan witnessed USD 1055/MT and USD 1035/MT, respectively.
Europe
Like the Asian region, the Ethylene oxide price trend fluctuated in the European region during Q1. Initially, the prices plunged amid weak demand from Glycol industries. While the upstream costs support was low as the feedstock Prices remained stable at the beginning of the month. However, in the mid-quarter, Ethylene prices soared due to stressed availability amid the European ban on seaborne imports of Russian Crude oil from February 5. It negatively affected the production rates and raised the cost pressure on Ethylene Oxide. Then, in the final month of Q1, prices increased marginally amid consistent demand from downstream value chains. At the end of the quarter, the Ethylene Oxide prices in Germany hovered at USD 1495/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The Ethylene Oxide price trend showcased mixed sentiments during the final quarter of 2022. Initially, the prices decreased as USA’s EPA identified risks from commercial sterilization facilities using Ethylene oxide, which negatively impacted the product demand and consumption levels in the downstream industries. In the mid-quarter, the trend shifted, and prices rose due to a rise in production costs amid high feedstock Ethylene demand from Polyethylene producers. In the final month of the quarter, prices again declined due to a reduction in the upstream WTI Crude oil and natural gas prices due to a decline in demand from Chinese importers amid the rise in the covid cases. At the end of Q4 2022, Ethylene Oxide prices in the USA hovered at USD 730/MT.
Asia
Ethylene Oxide prices showcased mixed sentiments in the Asian region during the Quarter IV of 2022. During the first month of the quarter, prices remained stable and rose marginally due to decreased feedstock Ethylene availability in countries like Japan because of plant shutdowns and rising inflation. In the mid-quarter, feedstock plants like Idemitsu Kosan, with a capacity of 6,90,000/MT, restarted, and feedstock availability improved due to this production cost of EtO decreased. Towards the end of the quarter, prices decreased in Asia amid destocking practices by producers. While in China, prices were stable and inclined slightly due to currency depreciation because of the economic slowdown. At the end of Q4 2022, Ethylene Oxide prices in China and Japan hovered at USD 975/MT and USD 1030/MT, respectively.
Europe
In the European region, Ethylene Oxide prices oscillated during Q4. Initially, prices plunged amid the decline in consumption and firm production rates due to the surplus availability of feedstock Ethylene supplies and the consequent reduction in production costs of EtO. However, during the mid-quarter, prices inclined upward due to increased upstream Naphtha and Dutch TTF natural gas prices. Towards the end of the quarter, EtO prices plunged noticeably on the back of weak offtakes and a decrease in the feedstock and production costs amid a reduction in the input costs. At the end of Q4 2022, Ethylene Oxide prices in Germany settled at USD 895/MT. Meanwhile, the sharp drop in freight charges resulted in increased Asian EO imports to European shores.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the Q3 of 2022, Ethylene Oxide prices declined in the USA on the back of stable demand sentiments by the downstream processors. In the first half of the quarter, prices decreased sharply due to the issued embargo on its transportation through rail, increasing domestic inventory levels. While in the second half of Q3 2022, producers like LyondellBasell went under unplanned shutdown and inventory levels remained under stress. At the same time, EPA revised its EtO emissions regulations which negatively impacted the demand from importers. Subsequently, after a plunge of almost 23% against the previous quarter's prices, Ethylene Oxide in the USA settled at USD 1205/MT.
Asia
Like the previous quarter, Ethylene Oxide prices continued to decline in H1 of Q3 in the Asian countries on the back of average orders from the downstream industries. In August, Shenhua Xinjiang in China went under maintenance turnaround, due to which domestic inventory levels decreased due to moderate demand from downstream glycol producers. Consequently, the price trend revived in the final month of Q3 in China and Japan but remained the same in India as the previous one. At the end of the quarter, Ethylene Oxide China's discussions settled at USD 1060/MT, after an average decrease of 17.2% in the previous quarter's prices.
Europe
Ethylene Oxide prices decreased throughout quarter III of 2022. Initially, sluggish demand and weak feedstock costs reduced the product prices in the region. Key producer LyondellBasell, with a capacity of 3.56 MTPA, went under planned shutdown in August amid high energy prices and rationing of input supplies which affected the domestic inventory levels. However, the product prices decreased noticeably in the H2 of the quarter due to a significant plunge in feedstock costs and simultaneous revised regulation by the EU commission on Ethylene oxide presence in food derivatives. After witnessing a decrease of 13.5% in the previous quarter's prices, Ethylene Oxide discussions in Germany settled at USD 1285/MT at the end of Q3, 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In the second quarter of 2022, Ethylene Oxide witnessed mixed sentiments throughout the quarter. The uncertainty in the crude oil prices affects the region's Ethylene Oxide and other petrochemical commodities. Due to the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, the US imposed sanctions on Russia have supported the inquiries for WTI Crude from several Northeast Asian regions. The higher freight charges and delayed deliveries had levied impact on the complete value chain. At the end of the quarter, the price of Ethylene Oxide decreased, and the cost pressure from Ethylene weakened and supported the downstream industries.
Asia Pacific
The Asia Pacific market showed a rise and fall in prices of Ethylene Oxide throughout the second quarter. The fluctuations in international crude oil prices, as a resulting increase in Ethylene Oxide at the beginning of the quarter. The upstream cost pressure from Ethylene drives the downstream derivatives in the region. China lifted the area's lockdown and slowly returned to the normal market at the end of the quarter. Overall sentiments in the Asian Ethylene markets remain bearish, with demand curbed by low operating rates and weak regional production margins. Despite the current market uncertainty, OPEC has been unable to close the growing supply-demand gap in crude oil.
Europe
Throughout the quarter, the European region's trend of Ethylene Oxide increased. The tight supply of upstream Ethylene and rising crude oil and natural gas prices impacted the entire European market. Russia's special military operations against Ukraine, as well as European countries' retaliation in the form of sanctions against Russian oil and gas imports, had an impact on the international market. Supply chain disruptions caused by raw material shortages have been exacerbated since the sanctions imposed by the western countries.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Nonyl Phenol Ethoxylates prices in the United States have witnessed strong market sentiments throughout Q1 in response to the higher Ethylene Oxide feedstock prices and outstretching demand. The curtailed operations in ExxonMobil’s Baytown refinery following an explosion in late December have continued to create a supply deficiency of upstream olefins and consequently caused its prices to gain significant numbers. The high upstream pricing, which got transferred to its downstream Ethylene Oxide, weighed on the input cost of Nonylphenol Ethoxylates. Prompting the manufacturers for a price increase, thus, the Nonylphenol Ethoxylates US discussions reached USD 1923/MT FOB Gulf Coast in the quarter ending March 2022.
Asia Pacific
In Asia, the prices of Nonylphenol Ethoxylates have witnessed an increment of 9% in the first quarter of 2022. Increased stockpiling activities with suspended Chinese Nonylphenol imports on account of the Chinese New Year Holiday break in early February have made its price skyrocket in the Indian domestic market, followed by the global shortage. Increased input costs with strong feedstock Ethylene Oxide and Phenol market added to the upward price trajectory in the Asian market. Also, increased application of personal care products kept the demand high from the downstream surfactant sector, causing the Indian prices of Nonylphenol Ethoxylates to soar in March to USD 2330/MT Ex-Kashipur. On the other hand, with declining buying sentiments and high inventory levels, the Chinese NPE prices slipped from USD 3528/MT in January to USD 3347/MT FOB Qingdao in March.
Europe
The European Nonylphenol Ethoxylates market has experienced a bullish pricing trend during Q1 of 2022. This uphill curve owed to the worsening economic crisis against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukrainian conflict. PCC group (Poland), a key exporter, fell short of raw material procurement from Russia because of restricted freight movements associated with the war in the entire region. Hence, the tight product supplies from Poland impacted the Nonylphenol Ethoxylates regional market and the downstream cleaning industry. Additionally, dueling with the supply challenges and inflationary pressure of bullish raw material market has brought about the German prices of NPE as USD 1993/MT FOB Hamburg in March.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In the first quarter of 2022, the Ethylene Oxide market in the North American region has vastly been impacted by the gyration in the international crude oil market. The geopolitical crises raised in the eastern European region had a significant impact on the market dynamics of Ethylene Oxide in the US domestic market. Whereas, before that, the OPEC+ alliance decided to maintain the production margin despite the resurgence of the omicron variant of COVID 19 uplifted the upstream and Naphtha prices in the North American region. Therefore, the FOB US Gulf discussions for Ethylene Oxide settled at USD 1913 per tonne, by the quarter ending in March 2022.
Asia Pacific
The overall trend for the Ethylene Oxide in the Asia Pacific market showcased the different trends depending on the subregions and countries, as the Ethylene Oxide is hardly traded over the sea routes amidst its hazardous nature. Therefore the domestic market factors were majorly impacted the market dynamics for Ethylene Oxide. In China, the quotations fluctuated within a rangebound, as the resurgence of COVID had dropped the demand outlook from the downstream buyers, and the producers constantly shifted the operating rates to safeguard their interests in the Asia Pacific region. Whereas, the swinging quotations for crude oil have strengthened the market dynamics for the upstream Naphtha and provided adequate cost support to the Ethylene Oxide offers across the Asia Pacific. Therefore, the FOB Shanghai discussions for EO averaged USD 1287 per tonne, during the quarter ending March 2022.
Europe
Since 2021, the market dynamics in the European region observed several hindrances in the economic recovery from the losses that occurred in the pandemic. The region is already facing an acute shortage of natural gas and energy resources. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine further worsened the situation, as the strong opposition to Russia resulted in reluctance from buyers to accept cargoes upstream from the Russian ports. As a repercussion, the joint impact worsened the market dynamics, besides strengthening the will of producers to raise the quotations in the domestic market. Therefore, the FD South Hampton discussions for EO at the start of the quarter were assessed at USD 1920 per tonne, in January 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the North American Ethylene Oxide market started on a stable note after the operational rates in the US started to improve post-hurricane season. In addition, the congestion, limited availability of freight vessels, and high charges for the Asia Pacific deliveries supported the significant reduction in the arbitrage from the US. In addition, the cost support from the upstream Ethylene plunged drastically throughout the fourth quarter. As a ripple effect, the offered quotations for EO dropped proportionally and the FOB Gulf coast spot discussion was settled at USD 1510 per tonne, during the quarter ending.
Asia Pacific
The Ethylene Oxide market in the Asia Pacific market witnessed mixed sentiments throughout the fourth quarter of 2021. In China, due to the coal shortages, the region started to witness the impact of the energy crisis and the power rationing proportionally hindered the operational rates at numerous crackers across China. In addition, the resurgence of COVID and stricter norms of the Chinese authorities supports the freight crisis in the Asia Pacific region, due to which the freight cost crossed the USD 20000 per 40ft container mark and impacted the arbitrage from the overseas market. As a ripple effect, the Ethylene Oxide offers in the Chinese domestic market peaked to the historical highs with the Ex-Shanghai discussion for technical grade soared to USD 1530 per tonne, during the last week of October. However, as the persistent efforts of Chinese authorities to curb the power rationing eased the inflation in the Chinese domestic market and the producer’s quotations cooled drastically by 22.5% by the quarter ending.
Europe
During the fourth quarter of 2021, the European Ethylene Oxide market remained consolidated due to the ongoing energy crisis in the domestic market which proportionally weighed on the manufacturing capabilities due to the higher energy cost. Several market participants anticipated that the current trend is likely to prevail till the mid-of the next quarter due to the limited Natural gas stocks. In addition, the congestion, limited availability of freight vessels, and high charges for the Asia Pacific deliveries supported the significant reduction in the arbitrage from Europe. As a ripple effect, the offers for the Ethylene Oxide market remained buoyed in the European domestic market and the FD Hamburg (Germany) discussion for Ethylene Oxide was settled at USD 1795 per tonne, during the quarter ending.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
In Q3 2021, Ethylene prices witnessed a proliferative trajectory in US during the third quarter backed by the volatility in the feedstock ethylene which directly influence the market dynamics of Ethylene Oxide in the region. The demand for Ethylene oxide and its downstream products remained robust that contributed to the hike in the pricing trend of Ethylene Oxide through out the quarter. Moreover, many manufacturers were compelled to shut down their production plants as a repercussion of Ida hurricane in August that further exerted pressure on the Ethylene Oxide market. FOB-US Ethylene Oxide prices were assessed at USD 1620/MT in September showing an increment of USD 180/MT since July backed by the low production rates and higher demand in the region.
Asia
The Asian market of Ethylene Oxide showcased mixed sentiments during the third quarter. Chinese market observed a hike in the prices of Ethylene Oxide backed by the supply chain disruption due to the congestion on several ports of China. Moreover, curtailment in the production rates followed by the energy crisis in China further sent ripples to the prices of EO in this timeframe. In India, a marginal surge in the values of Ethylene Oxide was seen from July to August supported by the firm feedstock costs and sturdy demand from downstream MEG products. However, in September prices of Ethylene Oxide dropped down. Hence, the overall EO market remained unchanged in this quarter as domestic players sold majority of the produce at a predefined rate to the domestic consumers. The prices of Ethylene Oxide in India raised to USD 1350/MT in August from USD 1302/MT July prices and further in September, the EO prices laid back to USD1297.04/MT.
Europe
In Europe, the prices of Ethylene Oxide witnessed a marginal uptrend backed by the sturdy demand from downstream glycols and ethoxylates along with the hike in the prices of feedstock Ethylene. during this quarter. In addition, the spike in the value of Ethylene Oxide and its derivatives in Europe was due to exorbitant freight charges and lower imports because of container shortage. Promising profit margins were gained by the manufacturers following by the strong demand from downstream sectors. FD Hamburg Ethylene Oxide prices settled at USD 1790/MT witnessed an increment of USD 160/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Ethylene Oxide (EO) prices remained volatile in this quarter due to limited availability of feedstock Ethylene in the country. Several manufacturers resumed their plant operations after a long gap which improved the availability of feedstock chemicals in the country. Therefore prices of Ethylene Oxide varied month over month in USA during Q2 2021. Demand for EO remained firm from domestic and global market especially from Europe, as there was an effective shortage across the region. Huge fall in prices of Ethylene Oxide was observed in May, in effect of increased availability of Ethylene after resumption in refineries operations in USA. Therefore, prices of EO were accessed at USD 1210/MT during the month of May in USA.
Asia
Ethylene Oxide prices dwindled effectively in overall Asian market during this quarter, supported by increased stock availability amid subdued demand from downstream manufacturers. Meanwhile, Ethylene prices fluctuated due to frequent price variation in crude values. In Indian market, rapid resurgence of pandemic reduced the demand from downstream sectors amid sufficient stock availability. However, feedstock Ethylene prices remained unstable in India, which also kept affecting the price of Ethylene Oxide in the country. Therefore, prices of Ethylene Oxide hovered around USD 1214/MT during the last week of June in India.
Europe
Europe witnessed firm demand for Ethylene Oxide during this quarter, backed by firm offtakes from downstream manufacturers. Prices of Ethylene Oxide in Europe increased effectively in May and reached several months high. This huge spike was due to rise in prices of feedstock Ethylene amidst unstable demand and low stock availability in Europe. In addition, several plant turnarounds were also noted in major European countries like Germany, Belgium and Netherland during this timeframe, which led to an effective shortage of Ethylene Oxide in these countries and induced a price hike.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
In North American market, prices of Ethylene Oxide witnessed consistent increment on a daily basis, due sturdy demand fundamentals and disrupted production capability amid freezing winter storms. Several large-scale feedstock Ethylene plants were forced to shut down due to climate calamity. INEOS Ethylene unit with capacity 1.89 million MT per year, Eastman Chemicals Ethylene plant with capacity 730,000 MT per year, LyondellBasell Ethylene plant with capacity 2.29 million MT per year remained idled amidst the storm period. It was estimated that more than 65% of EO production and more than 68% Ethylene production was affected during the US storm. Bullish demand from Asian countries coupled with limited product availability across the region led to extreme rise of 48.9% on average EO prices, which settled at USD 1605/MT in March.
Asia
In Asian market, Ethylene Oxide production remained low due to some plant outages and shortage of feedstock Ethylene across the region. During Chinese holidays, demand for EO slumped in China, which was later rebounded effectively which again pressurised the supply in the regional market. US plant outages led to a situation of global shortage for most of the chemicals while demand from Asian market remained firm, which led to increase in the prices of feedstock Ethylene, and downstream MEG. In India, Bulk price of EO increased by 34.5% since January and settled at USD 1261.3 per MT in March ending.
Europe
European Ethylene Oxide demand remained firm throughout the quarter, amid US gulf storm and sturdy export demand to Asia. Ethylene Oxide prices remained volatile with shortage of feedstock Ethylene across the region. Demand for Ethylene also remained high from segments like PVC and hence the manufacturers were compelled to increase its prices. Overall, prices of Ethylene Oxide witnessed a continuous rise, however it is anticipated that it will come down to normal as US production is continuously restoring itself.
For the Quarter Ending December 2020
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The supply for EO tightened due to production outages at some upstream Ethylene plants. Upstream supply remained affected by LG chemical’s Yeosu cracker’s unexpected 3 week-long force majeure due to fire breakout at the company’s central control unit. Unexpected plant turnarounds triggered Ethylene production loss of around 400 KT, cumulatively during the quarter. The price of EO is the Asian region inclined due to firm demand for glycols and tight product supplies. The Indian Ethylene Oxide industry remained largely unchanged over the previous quarter with market fundamentals staying balanced for a larger part of the month. The price of EO in India showed a slight increment in Q4 2020, maintaining an average of USD 1078 per tonne. Driving the trajectory were the firmer feedstock costs and increasing demand from the downstream MEG producers.
North America
There was a consistent decline in supply of the upstream Ethylene across North America with majority of its EO demand being directed towards the downstream glycols sector. Operating rates at the upstream units were heard increasing after affected run rates due to hurricane related disruptions in the US. Early December, Formosa’s new EO plant in Texas turned operational which is expected to ramp up the production rates in Q1 FY21 amid anticipations of pent-up demand. EO inventory levels at several downstream sectors turned lower due to strong demand for glycol ethers used in disinfectants and cleaning chemicals while pricing is likely to remain uplifted amid persistent transportation constraints.
Europe
EO supplies tightened during the fourth quarter amid tightened supply of Ethylene whose inventories stood low limiting the product availability to several other downstream production units. Shutdown of Ethylene cracker of Borealis in Stenungsund (Sweden) in December further exacerbated the market tightness. Persistent tightness in the upstream supplies and recovery in crude futures spiked the spot prices of EO across Europe. Regional traders reported better demand from the downstream detergents and medical industries throughout the quarter.
