For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The ethylene oxide (EO) market in North America exhibited a distinct price trend during Q4 2024, characterized by a decline in the first half and an incline in the latter part of the quarter. During the first half of the quarter, the US market faced significant downward pressure.
This was primarily due to weak demand from key downstream sectors such as polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and automotive, which struggled with slower growth. Coupled with a decrease in ethylene prices and limited export opportunities, the market sentiment remained cautious. Additionally, disruptions like the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl and slowdowns in ethane recovery further contributed to the decline in EO prices. Despite stable supply conditions, the demand weakness led to a continuous price dip.
In contrast, the second half of the quarter saw a gradual price recovery. By December, a combination of year-end purchases and a controlled export environment helped stabilize and push EO prices upward. Manufacturers capitalized on the limited supply and steady demand, especially with expectations of higher procurement ahead. The market remained optimistic, projecting sustained price levels moving into early 2025.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the ethylene oxide market in the APAC region, particularly China, experienced a price trend characterized by a gradual increase in the first half followed by stability in the latter half. During the initial phase, ethylene oxide prices saw upward movement due to a combination of rising feedstock costs and improving demand from key downstream sectors like automotive and construction. This positive momentum was largely driven by strong procurement rates and market sentiment, despite oscillating feedstock prices. However, the anticipation of new production capacities coming online in the near future created a cautious market outlook, which limited the extent of price increases.
The second half of the quarter saw stability as supply and demand dynamics balanced out. The market experienced minimal fluctuations as increased production from overhauled units and the gradual release of new capacities added to the supply side. While demand from sectors like polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agents showed signs of weakening, other sectors such as surfactants and ethanolamines helped stabilize the market. By December, prices stabilized due to steady supply and moderate demand growth, with the absence of significant disruptions or changes in market conditions. Overall, Q4 2024 ended with a stable pricing environment after an initial period of growth.
Europe
The ethylene oxide (EO) market in the European region, particularly in Germany, during Q4 2024 exhibited a largely stable pricing trend in the first half of the quarter, followed by a slight decline in the second half. Initially, ethylene oxide prices remained relatively steady due to strong inventory levels and moderate supply dynamics, despite the broader downturn in ethylene and related markets. The weak demand from key downstream sectors, including packaging, automotive, and construction, hindered any significant price movements. Although the upstream ethylene market showed weakness, the overall balance between supply and demand helped stabilize EO prices.
However, as the quarter progressed, particularly in November and December, the market faced downward pressure. Weak demand from major end-use sectors, compounded by macroeconomic challenges such as rising inflation and political instability, contributed to the price decline. Additionally, supply-side constraints, including logistical issues and reduced imports, did little to offset the stagnant demand. In December, the slight uptick in production and export activity in certain sectors was not enough to reverse the overall bearish trend. Consequently, ethylene oxide prices ended the quarter on a cautious note, with market participants anticipating a continued slow outlook into 2025.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the ethylene oxide market in the MEA region, particularly Saudi Arabia, exhibited a dual-phase price trend characterized by a decline in the first half and a subsequent recovery in the latter half. The initial decline was driven by weak demand from downstream industries, including automotive, textiles, and consumer goods, coupled with high inventory levels. Although the supply remained stable, bolstered by consistent inflows from Asian markets and steady naphtha prices, the lack of significant bulk orders reflected the broader bearish market sentiment. Price reductions by producers, aimed at stimulating procurement, highlighted the challenges in balancing supply and demand amid muted market activity.
The second half of the quarter marked a turnaround as the market gradually recovered, fueled by several factors. The steady demand for monoethylene glycol (MEG) in Asian markets supported ethylene oxide pricing by stabilizing production and procurement levels. Additionally, rising chemical export rates and slight increases in raw material costs, driven by inflationary pressures and logistical adjustments, contributed to the positive sentiment. By December, surging export demand and improved cost dynamics further tightened supply, enabling producers to increase prices. Overall, Q4 2024 closed with a cautiously optimistic outlook, supported by robust export activity and recovering downstream demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 for Ethylene Oxide in North America has been characterized by significant price increases driven by a variety of factors. Tight supply situations, influenced by low production rates and maintenance shutdowns across the region, have led to a bullish market sentiment.
In the USA specifically, Ethylene Oxide prices have seen the most notable changes, with prices steadily rising. Market participants have reported increased feedstock Ethylene prices, contributing to elevated production costs and subsequently pushing Ethylene Oxide prices upwards. Demand from downstream industries has been stable to moderate, with inquiries from Latin America and Mexico boosting export prices. Additionally, disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine and maintenance shutdowns at key plants have further tightened supply, leading to price hikes.
Comparing to the same quarter last year, Ethylene Oxide prices have seen a significant 14% increase. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter change in 2024 recorded a 11% increase, indicating a consistent upward trend. The second half of the quarter saw a 4% price increase compared to the first half. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 1493/MT of Ethylene Oxide Contract FOB US Gulf in the USA, reflecting a positive and increasing pricing environment.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the Ethylene Oxide market in the APAC region has experienced increasing prices, driven by a combination of factors. The quarter has been characterized by stable demand from downstream industries, particularly in the Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates sectors. This steady demand, coupled with tight supply conditions, has led to a bullish pricing environment. Additionally, rising feedstock Ethylene prices have contributed to the overall upward trend in Ethylene Oxide prices. In Japan, the market has seen the most significant price changes, with prices ending the quarter at USD 919/MT of Ethylene Oxide Ex-Osaka. The quarter saw a 3% price increase from the first half to the second half, highlighting a strengthening pricing trend. Despite a -4% decrease from the same quarter last year, the quarter-on-quarter change recorded a 2% increase, indicating a more positive pricing environment in the current quarter. Overall, the Japanese market has exhibited a consistent increase in prices, reflecting a positive sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region experienced a significant increase in Ethylene Oxide prices, driven by multiple factors. Tight supply chains, influenced by low operating rates and disruptions at key production facilities, contributed to the price surge. Additionally, rising feedstock Ethylene costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, impacting oil prices, further propelled the upward pricing trend. Netherlands, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes during the quarter. The overall trend in pricing showed a consistent increase, with seasonality and correlation playing a significant role in price fluctuations. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices were down by 5%, reflecting the recent surge. Furthermore, a 1% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 was followed by a notable 4% increase between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price of USD 1428/MT for Ethylene Oxide FD Rotterdam in Netherlands marked the culmination of this positive pricing environment, highlighting the ongoing upward trajectory in prices.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Ethylene Oxide market in the MEA region experienced declining prices, influenced by several key factors. The market was characterized by a lower pricing environment, with minimal fluctuations observed. Factors such as weak demand from downstream industries, adequate supply levels, and moderate Ethylene Oxide feedstock prices contributed to the overall decline in prices. In Saudi Arabia, which saw the most significant price changes, the market trend mirrored that of the broader region. The percentage change from the same quarter last year stood at -1%, indicating a slight decrease in prices over the year. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter change of -3% highlighted a marginal decline in prices from the previous quarter in 2024. Interestingly, the comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variation, underscoring the consistent pricing trend observed. The quarter-ending price for Ethylene Oxide USD 1243 per MT FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia, reflecting the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Overall, prices of Ethylene oxide have witnessed an uptrend across the US market during the second quarter of 2024 on the back of steady downstream demand and tight supply. The inquiries from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry have been moderate in the domestic market.
Most market transactions were also mainly based on a need-on-demand basis. On the macroeconomic front, the annual inflation in the US slowed to 3.3% in May 2024, below 3.4% in April but still above the hope of the Federal Reserve which is 2%. In the meantime, inquiries from the overseas market have also been steady.
The feedstock Ethylene prices have increased which resulted in the high production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. On the other hand, the material availability was limited amid force majeure by the major manufacturer of Ethylene oxide Dow Chemical Company, Plaquemine, Louisiana in the backdrop of a series of explosions and fires that resulted in the involuntary unplanned shutdown. Although earlier it was expected that the plant might restart in early Q2, now there is an expectation that the plant might restart towards the end of Q2 of 2024. Consequently, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB US Gulf were settled at USD 1390/MT with a month-on-month increment of 3.0% during June 2024.
Asia- Pacific
Ethylene oxide prices have inched lower across the Japanese market during the second quarter of 2024 in the wake of excessive supply and thin derivative demand. The cost support from feedstock Ethylene was limited to Ethylene oxide as its prices settled on the lower end throughout the quarter, contributing to a downward shift in the price realization of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. On the other side, the inquiries for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Mono ethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry have been largely fragile with buyer appetite remaining tepid, with broader macroeconomic pressure continuing to limit the need for material from derivative sectors. Also, low demand from the end-user sector remained pressuring the domestic Ethylene oxide markets, with buyers maintaining a hand-to-mouth approach. On the other hand, manufacturers of Ethylene oxide have been operating at low rates to cope with weak margins caused by oversupply and low demand growth. Overall, the availability of Ethylene oxide was abundant which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. Therefore, prices of Ethylene oxide Ex- Osaka were settled at USD 865/MT during June 2024.
Europe
Ethylene oxide prices have showcased a bearish rally across the European market during the second quarter of 2024 amid quiet trading activity, with buyers reluctant to commit to transactions. The feedstock Ethylene prices have decreased amid weak demand from other industries which in turn resulted in the low production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market, leading to the downward shift in the price realization of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market.
In addition, the demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industries has remained consistently subdued, with market players gearing for the summer downturn amid seasonal holidays. The spot market transactions were also muted, with buyers remaining on the sideline. In the broader economic context, German inflation fell more than expected in June, resuming its downward trend after two consecutive months of increases, and leaving the door open for another rate cut by the European Central Bank in September. Also, the decline in the inflation rate would not affect Ethylene oxide demand within the downstream industry in the short term.
Moreover, the manufacturing firms were still operating at reduced rates to balance out underperforming downstream demand. Despite this, the material availability was sufficient to cater to current downstream demand as new orders declined, which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide. Thus, prices of Ethylene oxide FD Hamburg were settled at USD 1343/MT during June 2024.
Middle-East
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, Ethylene oxide prices have continued to decline in the Saudi Arabian market as concern over reduced downstream demand remained intact throughout the quarter, as buyers complained about the unsatisfactory outlook for end-product demand. Hence purchases remain tied to basic only needs. The feedstock Ethylene prices have persistently declined amid adequate inventories and limited demand which resulted in the low production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market, contributing to a downward shift in the price realization of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. On the demand front, the inquiries from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry were tepid as consumption from the end-user sector has declined which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. The spot market transactions were also average as terminal firms showed less enthusiasm. Also, downstream production margins remained weak, with buyers citing poor profitability on key derivatives such as Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates. Moreover, Saudi Arabia's annual inflation rate held at 1.6% in April, underpinned once again by an increase in housing rents. Meanwhile, demand from the overseas markets has also softened with expectations that it may not recover soon amid external challenges. The supply of Ethylene oxide was abundant amid a decline in new orders to meet the overall downstream demand which further deteriorated the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. Therefore, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB AL Jubail were settled at USD 1282/MT during June.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Ethylene oxide prices have witnessed mixed sentiments across the US market during the first quarter of 2024. During the initial Q1 of 2024, Ethylene oxide prices have declined in the domestic market. The feedstock Ethylene prices have decreased which resulted in the low production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market.
These lead to the bearish market sentiments of Ethylene oxide among the manufacturers. In addition, demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry was sluggish from both the domestic and international market which weighed down the prices of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. However, towards the end of Q1 2024, Ethylene oxide prices strengthened in the domestic market as manufacturers faced a winter storm, which caused several petrochemical units to shut down operations or lower operating rates in the domestic market.
Moreover, Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited Clear Lake, Texas, and the Dow Chemical Company Seadrift, Texas in the US have shut down their Ethylene plant ahead of subfreezing weather conditions which led to supply shortage in the domestic market. Moreover, on the demand front inquiries from the downstream MEG and Ethoxylates industry remained steady in the domestic market. As a result, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB US Gulf were settled at USD 1354/MT during March 2024.
Asia- Pacific
Throughout the first quarter of Q1 of 2024, Ethylene oxide prices in the Japanese market surged due to rising upstream costs and limited domestic supply. The strong pricing of its feedstock, Ethylene, pushed Ethylene oxide prices higher domestically, fostering positive sentiment among manufacturers. In addition, Crude oil prices remained above $80 per barrel throughout February, signalling market tightening amid ongoing OPEC+ production cuts and disruptions in shipping routes such as the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Moreover, during the holiday season, downstream factory production varied, with some focusing on depleting inventory, thereby increasing demand for Ethylene oxide within the domestic market. Furthermore, disruptions in the Red Sea led to elevated freight rates. Conversely, manufacturing firms operated at reduced capacities due to decreased downstream demand, resulting in constrained material availability domestically. Overall, the demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol and Ethoxylates industry was moderate in the domestic market. As a result, Ethylene oxide prices settled at USD 936/MT in March 2024 on an Ex- Osaka basis.
Europe
Ethylene oxide prices have continued to show an upward trend across the German market during the first quarter of 2024 on the back of high upstream costs and tight supply. The cost support from feedstock Ethylene prices was sufficient on Ethylene oxide as its prices settled on the higher end in the domestic market. Furthermore, crude oil prices have been strengthening over the past few quarters following a string of drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries, sparking concern about fuel supply security. The rise in crude oil prices has further raised the overall production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. In addition, reduced domestic production in response to a decline in downstream demand, leading to the limited availability of finished stock of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. However, demand for Ethylene oxide from the downstream Ethoxylates and Glycol derivatives industry has persistently dropped amid macroeconomic headwinds. Nonetheless, it had a limited bearing on the prices of Ethylene oxide. The spot market transactions were also average in the domestic market. As a result, prices of Ethylene oxide FD Hamburg were settled at USD 1464/MT during March 2024.
Middle- East
Ethylene oxide prices have been marching higher in the Saudi Arabian market throughout the first quarter of 2024. The feedstock Ethylene prices have increased followed by strong crude oil prices which resulted in the high production cost of Ethylene oxide, supporting the prices to follow an uptrend in the domestic market. In addition, global crude oil prices were extending gains, with crude hitting past the USD 91/barrel mark, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East which could disrupt supply amid output cuts by OPEC and its allies. The strong crude oil prices have further raised the overall production cost of Ethylene oxide in the domestic market. However, the inquiries from the downstream Monoethylene Glycol industry remained tepid in the domestic market. Nonetheless, it had a limited bearing on the prices of Ethylene oxide. In the meantime, purchasing activity from the overseas market has also diminished amid unfavourable economic conditions. On the other side, the participants failed to see a significant improvement in downstream demand during March, which is expected to last during the upcoming term with the impact of the nearing Eid al-Fitr holiday. The material availability was limited to meet the downstream demand, contributing to the upward shift in the price realization of Ethylene oxide. As a ripple effect, prices of Ethylene oxide FOB AL Jubail were settled at USD 1359/MT during March 2024.
