For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American EDC market in Q4 2024 experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.0%, driven by a combination of factors impacting both supply and demand. A primary contributor to this bearish trend was the continued weakness in the construction sector, which accounts for a significant portion of EDC's downstream consumption, particularly in PVC production. The subdued performance in the construction industry led to a weaker demand for PVC, which in turn reduced EDC consumption. Although demand for EDC remained steady in the production of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), the lacklustre performance in PVC—especially from construction-related applications—kept market sentiment muted.
Macroeconomic factors, including fluctuating inflation rates, labour shortages, and rising interest rates, further exacerbated the uncertainty in the downstream markets. In particular, the construction sector faced challenges, with the Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index showing declines in sales, profit margins, and staffing. This resulted in a backlog reduction, further dampening the outlook for PVC and EDC demand.
Meanwhile, the sustainability push in packaging had minimal effect on the PVC market, as innovations shifted towards other polymers like monolayer films. Overall, while supply remained stable, the ongoing economic uncertainties and a soft demand outlook for PVC contributed to a steady but weak market for EDC in North America during the quarter.
APAC
The EDC market in the APAC region for Q4 2024 witnessed a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.4%, driven by multiple factors that contributed to a bearish market trend especially in Japan. Demand from key downstream sectors, particularly the construction and automotive industries, remained weak throughout the quarter. The construction sector faced labour shortages and economic challenges, which led to subdued demand for PVC, a major driver of EDC consumption. Similarly, the automotive sector saw slow demand growth, with vehicle sales declining, further contributing to the overall demand weakness. Additionally, inflationary pressures and the depreciation of the Japanese Yen exacerbated the market's difficulties. In the feedstock market, a decrease in crude oil prices lowered production costs, but this did little to offset the declining demand fundamentals. The manufacturing sector also showed signs of contraction, with weak export sales and reduced new orders. As a result, the market sentiment remained negative, and prices continued to decline throughout the quarter. Despite the slight uptick in PVC operating rates due to improved trading volumes, the overall market dynamics, including low demand from construction and PVC production, kept the market subdued. With ample supply and minimal changes in demand, the EDC market in the APAC region remained in a bearish state for the quarter.
Europe
In the European EDC market during Q4 2024, prices saw a modest quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%, driven by a combination of factors. The market showed signs of recovery, particularly from the automotive sector, which experienced improved demand, bolstered by a positive trend in vehicle sales in Q4. This contributed to the upward price movement, despite persistent challenges in the construction sector. The construction industry, while showing moderate signs of recovery, remained under pressure due to economic and political uncertainties, especially in major markets like Germany and France. This subdued demand in construction limited significant price increases. Additionally, the feedstock market saw fluctuations, with crude oil prices exhibiting a bullish trend, pushing EDC prices higher. However, ethylene prices declined amid the broader economic slowdown, putting downward pressure on production costs. Despite these mixed supply dynamics, the overall increase in EDC prices was supported by moderate recovery in downstream demand, particularly in the automotive sector. Market sentiment remained cautious but balanced, with a slight improvement in manufacturing activity and easing inflationary pressures in the construction sector. While the broader economic uncertainty persisted, the resilience of the automotive sector and rising feedstock costs contributed to the 1% price increase observed in the quarter.
South America
In Q4 of 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in South America experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.7%, driven by fluctuating demand and supply dynamics. The drop in prices was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the PVC production sector, particularly from the construction industry, which faced economic challenges. Despite a steady recovery in Brazil’s construction sector, the demand for EDC remained moderate, preventing significant price increases. The automotive sector showed resilience, with slight growth in vehicle sales, but this did not lead to a substantial boost in EDC demand. On the supply side, stable feedstock ethylene prices and robust inventory management helped maintain a consistent supply chain, despite external factors such as fluctuating crude oil prices. While supply remained adequate, the overall market conditions were volatile, with weaker demand and slight recovery in downstream sectors. This imbalance between supply and demand contributed to the 2.7% price decline. Additionally, the decline in crude oil prices played a role in reducing production costs, further pressuring EDC prices downward. The overall market sentiment remained stable, with both the construction and automotive sectors showing modest growth, but the price trend was hindered by inconsistent demand and broader economic uncertainties across the region.
MEA
In Q4 of 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in Saudi Arabia experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.7%, driven by a combination of subdued demand and balanced market dynamics. The decline in prices can be attributed to a moderation in demand from key downstream sectors such as PVC production. While the construction sector continued to grow, fuelled by Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and substantial investments in infrastructure, the demand for EDC remained steady rather than increasing significantly, limiting upward price momentum. Additionally, despite higher ethylene feedstock prices pushing production costs up, the ample supply of EDC, coupled with stable PVC prices, kept the market in balance, preventing major price hikes. The automotive sector, benefiting from government initiatives to boost local production, showed strong performance, but its moderate demand for EDC also contributed to the price stability. Furthermore, the consistent supply, robust production, and competition in the market led to price stability, despite rising production costs. The outlook for the construction and automotive sectors remained steady, with Saudi Arabia continuing to make significant strides in these industries, but the overall EDC market was affected by the weak demand from PVC production. This resulted in the slight decline observed in the fourth quarter, reflecting the balance of stable supply and modest demand growth.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) pricing landscape in North America remained stable, with the USA experiencing the most significant price changes. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. The stability in prices can be attributed to balanced supply and demand dynamics, with moderate to low demand from downstream industries like PVC contributing to the overall stable market conditions.
Additionally, the steady production and balanced feedstock prices in the region played a crucial role in maintaining price stability for EDC. In the USA specifically, the market saw minor fluctuations, with a 5% increase from the previous quarter but a notable decrease of 43% compared to the same quarter last year. The price remained consistent throughout the quarter, indicating a stable pricing environment.
The latest quarter-ending price for Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) FOB USGC in the USA stood at USD 245/MT, reflecting the prevailing stable sentiment in the market. Overall, the pricing trends in Q3 2024 for EDC in North America showcased resilience and equilibrium, with prices holding steady amidst various market challenges.
APAC
APAC region continued to be a pivotal market for EDC, driven by rapid industrialization and urbanization in countries like China, India, and South Korea. China remained the largest market due to its substantial production capacity and consumption levels.The demand for EDC was primarily driven by the Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) industry, which uses EDC as a precursor. The expanding manufacturing base and increasing infrastructure investments in India also contributed to the growth. The price trend of EDC remained relatively stable throughout the third quarter. However, the downstream demand from the PVC sector did not improve significantly, which in turn failed to provide sufficient support to EDC prices.The region faced challenges such as geopolitical tensions affecting raw material costs and environmental concerns related to EDC production.Despite the challenges, the APAC region is expected to register the fastest CAGR growth globally, driven by ongoing industrial expansion and increasing investments in chemical production facilities.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in Europe remained stable, with prices in the Netherlands showcasing the most significant changes. Various factors influenced market prices during this quarter. The stability was primarily driven by balanced supply and demand dynamics, along with cautious buying behaviour from downstream industries. High production costs, stemming from elevated crude oil prices and feedstock ethylene costs, also played a role in maintaining stable prices. The market also experienced disruptions in the supply chain due to high freight charges and geopolitical uncertainties, further contributing to price stability. In the Netherlands, the quarter saw a notable price change compared to the same period last year, with prices increasing by 6%. However, the quarter-on-quarter charge recorded a significant 12% increase, indicating fluctuations in market dynamics. The quarter ended with Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) priced at USD 365/MT FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands, reflecting the overall stable pricing environment prevalent throughout Q3 2024.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in the MEA region experienced a period of declining prices, with significant factors influencing this trend. The market was heavily impacted by a combination of decreased demand from downstream sectors, such as the PVC industry, and increased production costs. These factors led to a negative market sentiment, with prices experiencing a notable decrease of 4 % from the previous quarter in 2024. Additionally, compared to the same quarter last year, prices saw a substantial decline of 23%, reflecting the challenging market conditions faced by EDC producers. Saudi Arabia in particular witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. The pricing environment in the country displayed a consistent downward trend throughout the quarter, with prices falling by 5% between the first and second half of Q3. This decline culminated in the quarter-ending price of USD 265/MT for Ethylene Dichloride Ex-Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. The overall trend in the region indicated a negative pricing environment, driven by a combination of decreased demand, high production costs, and challenging market dynamics.
South America
In Q3 2024, Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) pricing in the South America region remained stable, reflecting a consistent market environment. The stability was influenced by various factors, including balanced supply and demand dynamics, stable production costs, and cautious downstream demand. The pricing trend in this quarter was predominantly driven by the equilibrium between production expenses and market demand, leading to price stability across the region. Brazil, in particular, experienced notable price changes during this period, with fluctuations remaining minimal. The overall trends in the region indicated a correlation between stable production costs and subdued demand from the downstream PVC market. Despite a 43% decrease from the same quarter last year, the quarter-on-quarter change of 4% signified a slight uptick in pricing. Additionally, the comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variance, highlighting the consistent pricing trend throughout the period. Ultimately, the quarter concluded with Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) priced at USD 271/MT CFR Santos in Brazil, underscoring the prevailing stability in the pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market experienced a notable downturn, driven by several critical factors. The construction industry, a significant consumer of EDC-derived products like Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC), has registered a marked slowdown, particularly in housing applications. This stagnation in the construction sector, coupled with low trading activities and weak buying interest from overseas markets, has further depressed EDC prices.
Focusing specifically on the USA, where the maximum price changes have been observed, the overall trend for Q2 2024 has been decidedly bearish. The seasonality typically associated with increased demand ahead of summer did not materialize, leading to a -48% change compared to the same quarter last year and a -15% change from the previous quarter in 2024.
The significant decline in crude oil prices during May 2024 and the consequent reduction in raw material costs have also played a crucial role. However, logistical challenges have compounded the rebounded price trajectory during June as the quarter ended with the price of Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) at USD 193/MT DEL Houston, reflecting a positive pricing environment.
APAC
During Q2 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in the APAC region faced a persistently declining pricing environment. The significant factors influencing market prices included sluggish demand from downstream sectors, a surplus supply situation, and declining upstream costs. Due to declining feedstock ethylene prices, the abundant inventories and reduced trading activities, particularly from the construction and packaging industries, exerted sustained downward pressure on EDC prices. Additionally, the overall bearish sentiment was compounded by macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to cautious procurement and infrequent spot market transactions. Focusing on Japan, the country experienced the most substantial price adjustments within the region. The correlation between reduced demand and excess supply drove prices downward, accentuated by the seasonal lull typical of Q2. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices decreased by 5%, underscoring the continuation of the negative pricing trend. Concluding the quarter, the latest price for Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) CFR Nagoya in Japan stood at USD 335/MT. This decline underscores a negative pricing environment, driven by a confluence of weak demand, ample supply, and subdued market activity.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market has experienced notable downward price pressure. The broader market sentiment has been characterized by excess supply and weak purchasing activity, compounding the downward momentum. The PVC market's sluggish performance has also played a critical role, as the demand for EDC, a key feedstock, remained lackluster during April 2024. This quarter has seen a confluence of factors driving market prices lower, including declining crude oil prices during May 2024, subdued demand from downstream sectors, and high inventory levels. Focusing specifically on Germany, where EDC prices underwent the most significant changes, the overall trend has been downward. Seasonality factors, such as reduced construction activity during the summer months, have exacerbated the decline in demand. The correlation between the decrease in upstream ethylene prices and downstream PVC prices has been evident, reinforcing the negative price trajectory. However, the logistical challenges and competitive import pressures have increased the pricing environment during June 2024, while the overall market outlook was bearish.
MEA
During Q2 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in the MEA region experienced a notable decline in prices, driven by several key factors. The primary catalyst was a persistent oversupply amidst dwindling demand from downstream sectors, particularly the PVC industry during April 2024. This imbalance was further exacerbated by a significant downturn in upstream ethylene prices, which diminished production costs and exerted downward pressure on EDC prices during May 2024. Additionally, geopolitical stability and stable crude oil supply contributed to a bearish market sentiment, as the anticipated supply disruptions did not materialize, leading to an unexpected surplus. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the region saw the most pronounced price fluctuations. The overall trend throughout the quarter was decidedly negative, influenced by seasonal factors such as lower construction activity, which typically peaks during other quarters, diminishing demand for EDC. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, the decrease was recorded at -2%, indicating a continuing downward trajectory. In conclusion, the latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 281/MT Ex-Riyadh, reflecting the prevailing sentiment of a negative pricing environment throughout Q2 2024.
South America
Throughout Q2 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in South America witnessed a significant downturn in prices, with Brazil experiencing the most substantial price changes. However, in June 2024, the prices rebounded due to extended delivery times and disruption in the supply chain activities due to torrential rains. While the overall decline was primarily influenced by a combination of factors affecting the market dynamics. A notable decrease in demand from downstream industries, coupled with competitive pricing pressures and increased availability of cheaper imports, contributed to the downward trajectory of EDC prices in the region during April 2024. Moreover, the ongoing global economic uncertainties and fluctuations in crude oil prices, a key feedstock for EDC production, further compounded the negative sentiment in the market during May 2024. In Brazil, the quarter-on-quarter change reflected a negative trend, with prices falling by -14. The quarter-ending price for EDC in Brazil stood at USD 261/MT CFR Santos, highlighting the prevailing bearish sentiment in the market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In first quarter of 2024, the North America region's Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market continued facing challenges that have influenced pricing dynamics. The previous quarter saw a decline in EDC prices due to an oversupply of the product and low demand from the downstream PVC industry.
These factors were further exacerbated by reduced construction activities and a weakened economic recovery. This uncertainty had a bearish effect on the market. Additionally, stability in the upstream market of ethylene and the decline in crude oil and naphtha prices also influenced EDC prices during the previous quarter. Similar market conditions were observed in the United States, with low demand from the downstream PVC industry and surplus inventory levels contributing to the decline in EDC prices.
The concerns surrounding US shipments to Asian markets due to the Red Sea incident further dampened the outlook in regional PVC markets. However, it is worth noting that the US market remained stable in terms of supply, with no reported plant shutdowns during the previous quarter. Factors such as surplus supply, low demand, concerns about shipping disruptions, and stability in upstream markets are expected to influence prices. Additionally, the market may also be impacted by any reported plant shutdowns, which could further impact prices. Overall, the first quarter of 2024 witnessed a continuation decline in EDC prices in the North America region, driven by the aforementioned factors. The United States market experienced similar conditions, with low demand from the PVC industry and uncertainties in Asian markets.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in the APAC region faced various factors that impacted prices in the industry. The market experienced a decline in prices primarily due to the low costs of feedstock ethylene, crude oil, and naphtha in exporting countries. This decrease was further influenced by the presence of ample EDC inventories within the region, which added to the downward pressure on prices. Certain sectors, such as real estate and agriculture, saw limited activity, although the construction sector remained stable. Downstream buyers of PVC expressed concerns regarding rising freight rates, particularly with significant EDC exports from the United States and Saudi Arabia. The situation was worsened by attacks on international ships in the Red Sea, leading major shipping lines to raise freight rates to Asia. Despite OPEC production cuts, crude oil prices remained stable as the USA maintained normalized supply levels, preventing unfavourable price increases. Overall, these factors contributed to a bearish market sentiment and a decline in EDC prices. As of the current quarter, the price of Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) FOB Busan in South Korea is USD 345/MT.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in Europe continued to face challenges, albeit with some positive developments. One of the key factors affecting the European EDC market was the scarcity of Naphtha supply. This scarcity was primarily driven by the rising prices of Crude Oil, which is the primary feedstock for EDC production. The higher prices of Crude Oil put pressure on the European market, making it difficult for producers to maintain stable production rates. However, despite these challenges, the demand for EDC from the downstream Petrochemical industry remained strong. This strong demand helped shape market dynamics and provided some stability amidst the supply chain disruptions. In German, the EDC market saw a mixed performance during this quarter. However, the oversupply of EDC in Europe ultimately led to a decrease in prices towards the end of the quarter. The high supply of EDC in the market caused prices to decrease, resulting in a bearish trend for the European EDC market in the first quarter of 2024. Despite the decrease in prices, there were no significant disruptions reported in the supply chain. The stable demand for EDC in Europe during this period was driven by various industries, including PVC, solvents, and other chemicals. These industries maintained their demand for EDC, contributing to the stability in the market. It is worth noting that no significant plant shutdowns were reported in the European EDC market during this quarter, further supporting the stability of the market. In conclusion, the Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) market in Europe continued to face challenges in the first quarter of 2024, with low production rates and oversupply issues affecting stakeholders. The German market experienced a surge in prices initially due to market stability, but ultimately saw a decrease in prices due to oversupply. No significant plant shutdowns were reported in the European EDC market during this quarter.
MEA
Quarter 1 of 2024 in the Middle East and Africa region for Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) was influenced by various factors. The market sentiment was subdued due to sluggish demand and limited trading activities. Geopolitical tensions were heightened by the Houthis' announcement of potential threats to Indian Ocean traffic. This added uncertainties to market dynamics, especially in terms of maritime trade routes and logistics. Saudi Arabia experienced little changes in pricing, with indications of high inventories for oil and oil cracks, possibly leading to destocking and production reduction. EDC supply levels remained stable throughout the quarter, with Saudi Arabia adjusting exports to India and Southeast Asia to meet market demands. In terms of pricing, Saudi Arabia's trend and seasonality in Q1 2024 remained relatively stable compared to the same quarter of the previous year. However, there was a slight decline of 2% in price percentage between the first and second half of the quarter. Consequently, the current price of Ethylene Dichloride Ex-Riyadh in Saudi Arabia for Q1 2024 stands at USD 290/MT.
South America
The cost of Ethylene Dichloride in Brazil experienced a decline in Q1 2024, amid sparse market activity. Given Brazil's dependence on imports from the US for Ethylene Dichloride, its pricing typically mirrored trends in the US market. The US import material consistently proved to be more cost-effective than its Asian counterpart, partly due to stable logistics from the US and relatively lower logistics costs from other countries. Throughout the quarter, there were no new volume allocations for February bookings, and projections indicated an increase in inventory levels due to recent notices of price decline from producers. This price reduction was attributed to the lack of demand at both local and global levels. As a result, market participants held onto unsold inventories until mid-February, contributing to the overall quietness in the market. The Brazilian Ethylene Dichloride market closely followed the trajectory of the US market, which experienced price declines during the same period due to low demand and ample supply. This decline in spot purchases exerted downward pressure on Ethylene Dichloride prices, contributing to the observed stability in Brazil. Despite the absence of new orders throughout the month, projections suggested a potential increase in inventory levels, especially considering recent notices of price decline from producers.
