For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Ethylene Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a mixed price trajectory, largely influenced by the dynamics of the global electrolyte market. Initially, the quarter witnessed relative price stability amidst an oversupplied electrolyte market and reduced consumer inquiries.
This oversupply, driven by factors such as increased production from major players, exerted significant downward pressure on Ethylene Carbonate prices. While demand from the EV sector, particularly in the US, showed promising growth, it was insufficient to offset the impact of oversupply. Towards the end of the quarter, prices began to decline further, primarily due to cautious purchasing behavior from battery manufacturers and EV makers.
This cautious approach was influenced by factors such as tightening regulations in key markets and concerns about the overall economic outlook. Despite these challenges, the North American Ethylene Carbonate market demonstrated some resilience. The growing demand for EVs in the region, albeit at a slower pace compared to other markets, continued to support the market. However, the overall market sentiment remained subdued, with concerns about oversupply and potential price volatility persisting.
APAC
The APAC Ethylene Carbonate market in Q4 2024 presented a dynamic picture, characterized by both upward and downward price movements. The quarter commenced with a bullish trend, driven by strong demand from downstream material plants for pre-holiday inventory buildup. This surge in demand, coupled with cost support from the upstream market, led to a notable increase in prices. However, this upward trajectory was gradually tempered by factors such as increased inventory levels and subdued consumer demand towards the end of the quarter. Year-end destocking activities further contributed to price declines. Despite these downward pressures, the market remained underpinned by the robust growth of the electric vehicle (EV) sector. The record-breaking EV sales in China throughout the quarter provided significant support to the Ethylene Carbonate market, as it is a crucial component in the production of lithium-ion batteries. While challenges such as fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly LiPF6, were observed, the overall market demonstrated resilience, reflecting the strong long-term growth prospects of the EV industry in the region.
Europe
The European Ethylene Carbonate market in Q4 2024 exhibited a mixed price trajectory. The quarter commenced with a bearish trend, primarily driven by a significant influx of cheaper imports from Asia. Declining freight charges and increased container availability further exacerbated the downward pressure on prices. While Chinese producers-initiated efforts to curb output, these measures were proven insufficient to stabilize the electrolyte market. A notable shift occurred mid-quarter, with prices experiencing a gradual increase. This upward trend was primarily attributed to rising production costs in major exporting nations, particularly driven by increased Ethylene Oxide prices and higher demand from the domestic market. However, European demand remained relatively subdued, with limited impact on the overall market dynamics. Towards the end of the quarter, prices experienced further appreciation due to the arrival of higher-priced imports from China. Rising demand for electrolytes from Chinese battery cell manufacturers, coupled with increased production costs, significantly impacted export prices. Despite this upward pressure, European demand remained weak, with no significant supply shortages observed in the region.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American market for ethylene carbonate experienced a notable downturn, with prices seeing a sharp decline compared to the same period last year. Several factors contributed to this drop, including weak demand, high inventory levels, and sluggish procurement activity.
Additionally, increased imports and limited cost support from upstream sectors added to the downward pressure, reinforcing the overall negative market sentiment. In the U.S., which saw the most pronounced price changes, the trend followed the broader North American market, with prices starting to decline early in the quarter due to ongoing challenges. This downward momentum persisted throughout the second half of the quarter, reflecting a continuous decrease in pricing.
By the end of Q3 2024, ethylene carbonate prices had settled at lower levels, underscoring a challenging market environment defined by oversupply and weak demand. The pricing trend for ethylene carbonate across North America during this period remained consistently negative, shaped by an excess of supply, weak market demand, and difficult conditions in both upstream and downstream sectors.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Ethylene Carbonate (EC) market in the APAC region experienced a significant upward trend in prices. This quarter has been characterized by a surge in demand from various industries, particularly the battery manufacturing sector, driving market prices higher. Factors influencing this price increase include improved consumer demand, stable support from upstream markets, and heightened procurement activities. China's electrolyte production by leading manufacturers reached 99,500 tonnes in August, a 2.05% month-on-month increase driven by higher production plans from battery cell factories. China, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes, with a 26% increase from the same quarter last year. The quarter-on-quarter price change in 2024 stood at 12%, indicating a continued positive trajectory. Notably, the second half of the quarter saw a 4% price increase compared to the first half. The quarter-ending price of USD 945/MT for Ethylene Carbonate Battery Grade FOB Qingdao in China reflects the overall positive pricing environment in the region. This quarter has been marked by stability, with consistent price growth and strong market confidence driving the Ethylene Carbonate market forward.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European market for ethylene carbonate saw a continued decline in prices, reflecting a bearish sentiment driven by several critical factors. Oversupply issues, combined with weak demand from both Asian and North American markets, played a major role in pushing prices downward. The lack of substantial cost support from upstream sectors also added pressure on ethylene carbonate prices throughout the quarter. The challenging market environment, characterized by high inventory levels and sluggish demand, intensified the downward pricing trend. European producers faced further complications, such as rising production costs, weak consumer demand from downstream industries, and worsening economic conditions, all of which contributed to the difficult conditions in the ethylene carbonate market. Belgium and Germany, in particular, experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations in the region. The steep year-on-year price decline highlights the tough market environment, while the quarter-on-quarter changes and the notable differences between the first and second halves of the quarter emphasize the persistent downward trajectory in ethylene carbonate prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American Ethylene Carbonate market exhibited mixed trends. In the early weeks, prices fell due to oversupply and weak procurement from consumers, leading to price declines. Demand for Ethylene Carbonate remained steady at moderate levels, with ample product availability in the local market. According to industry experts, many consumers are hesitant to purchase significant quantities of Ethylene Carbonate at elevated prices from downstream and terminal markets. Despite robust sales in March, many automakers experienced subdued performance in April, with only electric vehicle sales showing notable growth.
U.S. consumer interest in electric vehicles has declined, with surveys indicating only a small portion of the population is interested in EVs. However, hybrid vehicles continue to attract strong interest due to their electrification benefits without significant lifestyle disruptions. Additionally, Tesla is close to losing its position as the leading EV seller in the U.S., as other manufacturers sold approximately 597,000 fully electric vehicles over the past year compared to Tesla's 618,000. This reflects growing competition and potential market saturation concerns for EVs.
On the supply side of Ethylene Carbonate, freight charges along major sea trade routes have increased, making shipments to the U.S. more expensive. Unexpected rises in ocean freight demand from Asia, driven by restocking cycles in Europe and North American importers pulling forward peak season demand, have added strain to the already stretched container market. However, reduced conflict risk premiums, particularly in the Middle East, have eased expectations of supply disruptions, leading to further reductions in international freight charges.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Ethylene Carbonate market in the APAC region experienced a significant upward pricing trend. This quarter has been marked by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, fluctuating raw material costs, and heightened freight charges. Key factors influencing these price hikes include robust demand from downstream industries, particularly the battery manufacturing sector, and constrained supply due to maintenance shutdowns. Additionally, the persistent increase in crude oil prices has further escalated production costs, adding upward pressure on Ethylene Carbonate prices. Focusing on China, the country witnessed the most notable price changes. The overall trend has been bullish, driven by steady demand from lithium-ion battery manufacturers and ongoing supply chain disruptions. Seasonality also played a role, with elevated demand during the peak season contributing to price surges. The correlation between raw material price increases and Ethylene Carbonate prices was evident, as manufacturers passed on higher costs to consumers. Comparatively, the price of Ethylene Carbonate in Q2 2024 saw a 13% increase from the same quarter last year, reflecting a significant long-term upward trend. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices rose by 2%, indicating stability within an increasing trajectory. Furthermore, the first half of the quarter recorded an 8% higher price than the latter half, underscoring consistent demand and supply constraints throughout the period. The latest quarter-ending price for Ethylene Carbonate Battery Grade FOB Qingdao in China stood at USD 870/MT. This consistent increasing sentiment highlights a predominantly positive pricing environment for Q2 2024, driven by strong market fundamentals and external cost pressures.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Ethylene Carbonate market in Europe faced several constraints that significantly impacted prices. Although the market experienced instability due to weak consumer demand, prices remained relatively stable. The demand from the downstream lithium-ion battery sector was moderate. In major exporting nations, sellers consistently reduced prices in response to an oversupply situation, as producers increased production levels in anticipation of higher import volumes in April compared to March. This indicated a trend of supply recovery for the Ethylene Carbonate market. In Europe, Ethylene Carbonate prices dropped in mid-Q2 due to weak demand fundamentals, despite support from steady upstream raw material prices. Finished product inventory levels have helped maintain market balance, although spot transactions have remained stable. Data showed a decline in domestic sales, even though consumption in downstream markets stayed consistent. The slowdown in electric two-wheeler growth was linked to reduced subsidies and challenges faced by some OEMs, along with delays in subsidy disbursements impacting affordability and market expansion. Additionally, increased freight charges across major sea trade routes have made shipments more expensive, adding strain to the container market due to unseasonal demand and potential restocking cycles. Overall, the Ethylene Carbonate market remains calm, with limited activity observed in the region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American ethylene carbonate market continued to face challenges. The supply of ethylene carbonate in the region remained high, while consumption remained sluggish and procurement levels remained heavy from previous periods. The domestic automotive industry's demand for ethylene carbonate stayed low, reflecting the cautious approach of market participants. Major manufacturers focused on fulfilling long-term orders, leading to lower domestic inventories due to slow replenishments.
Moreover, international trade encountered hurdles during this period, driven by conflict in the Middle East and drought in the Panama Canal. These factors resulted in delayed container shipments and increased freight costs. The growing competition from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers further impacted the profitability of US-based EV companies, exacerbating market challenges.
Additionally, high interest rates raised the cost of financing, which slowed down the adoption of electric vehicles globally. Despite persistent inflation in other consumer goods, the purchase of optional electric vehicles remained slower than anticipated. These factors contributed to the overall bearish sentiment in the North American ethylene carbonate market.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing of Ethylene Carbonate in the APAC region remained stable overall. Several factors influenced market prices during this period. In general, the demand for Ethylene Carbonate from the downstream industries, such as battery and polycarbonate manufacturing, was moderate. However, there were fluctuations in demand from different countries within the region.
China, in particular, experienced the maximum price changes for Ethylene Carbonate.
The market dynamics in China were influenced by factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, manufacturing costs, and crude oil prices. The overall trend in China was bearish, with prices declining slightly. Seasonality also played a role, with the Lunar New Year holidays impacting logistics operations and demand. Compared to the same quarter last year, the prices of EC in the APAC region decreased by 16%. However, when comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the previous quarter, there was no significant change in prices, indicating a stable pricing environment.
Within the first quarter of 2024, there was a price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, with prices declining by 10%. This decline was attributed to various factors, including supply and demand dynamics and manufacturing costs. Overall, the pricing environment for Ethylene Carbonate in the APAC region during the first quarter of 2024 remained stable. As of the end of the quarter, the price of Ethylene Carbonate Battery Grade FOB Qingdao in China was USD 750/MT.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Ethylene Carbonate market in Europe faced various constraints that significantly impacted prices. These challenges resembled those of the previous quarter, with oversupply being a primary factor leading to reduced demand and subsequently lower prices. The persistent sluggish demand from the downstream lithium-ion battery manufacturing sector continued, as consumers remained cautious amid declining prices.
Moreover, the dominance of the Chinese market in Europe contributed to the overall bearish sentiment. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, such as BYD, experienced substantial sales growth, surpassing Tesla as the leading global electric carmaker, further intensifying competition and impacting the profitability of European-based EV companies. However, Belgium stood out as an exception, witnessing a significant surge in sales of battery electric cars.
Additionally, global trade faced hurdles during this period due to conflict in the Middle East and drought in the Panama Canal, resulting in delayed container shipments and higher freight charges. Despite these challenges, fierce pricing competition among European, US, and Chinese EV manufacturers persisted. Throughout this period, the market experienced multiple shutdowns, leading to disruptions that directly influenced prices. Despite these obstacles, there were some slight developments in market transactions for Ethylene Carbonate in Belgium during the quarter.
