For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The Electrical Steel market in North America during the fourth quarter of 2024 exhibited stability amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainty and ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector. Prices for Electrical Steel remained unchanged throughout the quarter, reflecting a cautious market environment influenced by both supply and demand dynamics. While the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed slight improvement, indicating a potential easing of the downturn, the overall manufacturing sector continued to experience contraction.
Demand for Electrical Steel has been impacted by fluctuating activity levels in both construction and automotive sectors. Although construction spending demonstrated modest growth along with job additions, higher mortgage rates and weakening residential activities led to cautious buyer behaviour. Additionally, the automotive sector saw a boost in vehicle sales yet supply issues and rising input costs posed significant challenges for manufacturers.
On the supply side, U.S. raw steel production reached an 11-week high, but overall output remained below year-to-date averages, indicating ongoing concerns in the production landscape. Input cost inflation is at a yearly low, yet manufacturers are contending with longer delivery times and staff shortages affecting overall efficiency.
As we close Q4, the price for Electrical Steel (M15-C5) Coil DEL in Tijuana is approximately USD 5,850/MT. This price stability comes amidst challenging market conditions, including high input costs and shifts in demand, emphasizing the necessity for strategic adaptations among market participants as they navigate an uncertain economic environment.
Europe
The Electrical Steel market in Europe encountered significant challenges during Q4 2024, characterized by stable pricing trends despite an overarching climate of economic uncertainty. Prices have remained steady, with industry sentiment reflecting caution as the sector grapples with weak demand conditions. In particular, the German manufacturing sector continued to experience contraction, compounded by declines in residential construction and a slowdown in automotive sales. Germany’s Manufacturing Index showed negative revisions, indicating an easing of output and new orders as companies faced reduced purchasing activity. While the overall market maintains stability, issues such as an influx of cheaper imports and stagnant domestic demand have created a subdued trading environment. However, there are indications that a recovery could materialize post-holiday, contingent on improved demand levels in both the construction and automotive sectors. Moreover, significant regulatory challenges persist, particularly in the construction industry, where a drop in new housing development approvals has further curtailed Electrical Steel consumption. On a positive note, some southern European mills are offering competitive prices, although substantial increases in production costs and reduced imported material availability are creating a complex pricing landscape. As Q4 concludes, the price for Electrical Steel (50 WW 800) Coil FD-Ruhr in Germany stands at approximately USD 1,865/MT. This stability in the market underscores the persistent concerns surrounding demand and supply dynamics, as industry players prepare to navigate the challenges ahead in a potentially tumultuous 2025.
APAC
The Electrical Steel market in the APAC region during the fourth quarter of 2024 showcases a cautious stability amid a backdrop of fluctuating demand and geopolitical uncertainties. Prices for Electrical Steel have remained stable, reflecting the moderate market conditions but facing challenges due to rising input costs and supply chain disruptions. Manufacturing activity in Japan presented a mixed picture, as the Manufacturing Index indicated a contraction, yet it signalled some positive shifts in business sentiment. However, the continued decline in automotive sales and pressures on major players like Toyota, due to fierce competition and production issues, highlight the ongoing challenges within the sector. Overall, the automotive market's struggles could dampen demand for Electrical Steel, which is essential for various automotive applications. Supply dynamics have also been impacted by seasonal factors, with domestic steel inventories experiencing fluctuations due to rising shipping activity and production cuts in response to weaker global demand. The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the blocked acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel, have added additional layers of uncertainty to market stability. As Q4 closes, the price for Electrical Steel (50 WW 800) Coil Ex Osaka stands at approximately USD 1,431/MT. While the price stability in this segment indicates resilience, market participants face ongoing difficulties including shifts in demand, input price inflation, and broader manufacturing sector challenges, underscoring the need for strategic adaptability as the market navigates these obstacles.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, Electrical Steel prices in North America showed a modest rise, with the USA experiencing the most significant changes. This increase was driven by several factors. First, stable supply levels combined with rising demand from the automotive and renewable energy sectors pushed prices higher.
Additionally, the weakening US dollar and expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve made dollar-priced steel more attractive to buyers, further boosting demand. The gradual recovery in the automotive sector and a rise in orders for green energy projects also contributed to the price increases. Specifically in the USA, there was a consistent upward trend in Electrical Steel prices during the quarter, reflecting positive market sentiment.
The growth in prices compared to the same quarter last year underscored the upward trajectory, with prices rising between the first and second halves of the quarter. Despite a stable price change from the previous quarter in 2024, the quarter-ending price of USD 5830/MT for Electrical Steel (M15-C5) Coil DEL Tijuana in the USA indicates a strong and steadily increasing pricing environment.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, the APAC region saw stable prices for Electrical Steel, influenced by various factors. These include a balanced supply-demand dynamic, market sentiment, and global economic conditions. Japan, experiencing the most significant price changes, witnessed a quarter decrease compared to the same period last year, reflecting challenges in the steel industry.
The quarter-on-quarter change further highlighted the market's stability and resilience amidst external pressures. Notably, the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter remained constant, indicating a consistent pricing trend. Additionally, Tokyo Steel, Japan's largest Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steel producer, has decided to reduce scrap purchase prices to adapt to market changes and maintain competitiveness. This reduction may lower production costs for companies that rely on Tokyo Steel as a supplier but could also affect ferrous product pricing globally.
The latest quarter-ending price of USD 1430/MT for Electrical Steel (50 WW 800) Coil Ex Osaka in Japan underscores the overall stable pricing environment. Despite fluctuations in global steel markets, Japan's Electrical Steel sector has maintained a steady stance, showcasing resilience and adaptability to market dynamics. The quarter's pricing trends reflect a stable and balanced market sentiment, emphasizing the sector's ability to navigate challenges and maintain price continuity.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region experienced stable pricing trends for Electrical Steel, with notable influences shaping market prices. Various factors contributed to this stability, including a challenging environment marked by a decline in the construction sector and concerns in the automotive industry, leading to a stark lack of buying activity.
Analysts have described the automotive market as bad and the construction market as terrible. Despite the bleak demand picture, premiums in the construction market have remained flat due to a tight supply environment. The Germany was able to maintain stability in the domestic market.
Despite these challenges, premiums in the construction market remained flat due to tight supply conditions. Notably, the price remained consistent between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a period of price stabilization. The quarter-ending price for Electrical Steel (50 WW 800) Coil FD-Ruhr in Germany stood at USD 1850/MT, reflecting the overall stable sentiment prevailing in the market, characterized by uncertainties, subdued demand, and fluctuating market conditions. Despite the challenges, the pricing environment remained steady, with Germany showcasing resilience amidst a complex economic landscape.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 observed a relatively stable pricing environment for Electrical Steel in North America, with several significant factors underpinning this equilibrium. The consistency in feedstock prices, coupled with solid demand from key sectors such as domestic appliances and transformers, played a pivotal role. Market dynamics were influenced by stable supply chains and balanced production levels, with no marked disruptions reported.
However, the introduction of new capacity by certain producers and fluctuating import levels added layers of complexity to the market, further stabilizing prices. Focusing on the US, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trends remained largely stable. Seasonal demand fluctuations, particularly from the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, were closely aligned with historical patterns, maintaining price consistency. The correlation in price shifts showed a slight downward influence from the prior quarter, despite a rise from the same period last year. This suggests a resilient market recovering from earlier volatilities.
In comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, prices exhibited no significant variations, reflecting a stable pricing environment throughout the period. Analysing these trends, the pricing environment for Electrical Steel in the US during Q2 2024 can be characterized as stable, with neither significant upward nor downward pressures dominating the market. The consistency in prices indicates a balanced market, underpinned by stable supply-demand dynamics and minimal external disruptions.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Electrical Steel market in the APAC region witnessed a pronounced decline in prices, driven primarily by several critical factors. Decreased demand from key downstream industries, coupled with an oversupply of Electrical Steel, has exerted downward pressure on the market. Additionally, competitive pricing strategies from major exporting countries further exacerbated the price slump. Market sentiment has been influenced by subdued economic activity, regulatory pressures, and a cautious approach by buyers, leading to a reluctance to build up inventories. Overall, the pricing environment has been negative, reflecting a bearish sentiment throughout the quarter. Focusing on Japan, the market experienced the most significant price changes in Q2 2024. The overall trend indicated a persistent decrease in prices, influenced by seasonal factors and diminishing demand from the automotive and construction sectors. The correlation between decreased production costs and falling demand compounded the negative price movement. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices plummeted highlighting a stark contrast in market conditions. The price change from the previous quarter in 2024 reflects a stable yet declining market environment. The first half of the quarter saw a drop in prices, further intensifying the downward trend. The quarter ended with the price of Electrical Steel (50 WW 800) Coil Ex Osaka in Japan at USD 1439/MT. This consistent decrease underscores a challenging market landscape, where the interplay of supply, demand, and economic factors has fostered a persistently negative pricing environment. The overall sentiment throughout the quarter was marked by a cautious and bearish outlook, as stakeholders navigated the complexities of a declining market.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 for Electrical Steel in the Europe region has been characterized by stable pricing, influenced by numerous market factors. Key reasons for the consistent price trend include sluggish demand from critical sectors such as automotive and construction, as well as increased import activity, particularly from Asia. While the European market faced subdued trading volumes, the import safeguard measures proposed by the European Commission also played a role in maintaining stable prices by potentially restricting quota limits for key steel suppliers. Additionally, partnerships aiming at sustainable production and industry restructuring initiatives reflected a broader commitment to longer-term stability in the sector. Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most significant price changes within Europe, the overall trend remained stable. Price consistency was primarily driven by balanced supply and demand dynamics, as well as the ongoing shift towards sustainable production practices. Seasonality did not majorly affect prices this quarter, and the correlation in price changes remained linear, indicating a stable market environment. Notably, there was no price variation between the first and second halves of the quarter, underscoring the stable nature of the market. Concluding the quarter, the price for Electrical Steel (50 WW 800) Coil FD-Ruhr in Germany stood at USD 1,865/MT. Despite the stable pricing environment, the sentiment for the quarter can be described as cautiously stable, with market players adapting to external pressures and consistent market fundamentals.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American market for Electrical Steel in Q1 2024 has experienced a mixed pricing environment, with prices steadily increasing in beginning of the quarter. Several significant factors have influenced market prices during this period. Firstly, the stability of steel production within the region has contributed to a tightening of supply, leading to higher prices. Additionally, strong demand for industrial fabrication and increased investment in infrastructure have boosted the overall demand for Electrical Steel.
In the USA, the market has seen the maximum price changes, with prices steadily rising throughout the quarter. This trend can be attributed to the recovery in the manufacturing sector and expected rises in construction material costs. However, buyer uncertainty amid macroeconomic challenges has led to cautious purchasing behaviour, potentially limiting further price increases.
Overall, Q1 2024 has shown an increase in prices compared to the same quarter last year, indicating a positive pricing trend. Additionally, prices have increased by 2% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. Notably, there has been a slight decline in prices between the first and second half of the quarter.
Asia-Pacific
The pricing environment for Electrical Steel in the APAC region during Q1 2024 has been influenced by various factors. Overall, the market has experienced a mixed trend, with significant variations observed in Japan. In the APAC region, demand for Electrical Steel has been moderate to high, driven by the performance of downstream industries such as automotive and construction. However, there have been challenges in the form of low domestic demand, supply chain disruptions, and trade interruptions. The market has also been impacted by inventory levels, with some regions experiencing surplus stocks. In Japan, the pricing dynamics for Electrical Steel in first two months of Q1 2024 have been bearish, with a notable decline in prices. This can be attributed to decreased demand from downstream industries and surplus inventories. Trade disruptions and increased freight costs have further exacerbated the situation. Despite these challenges, companies like Toyota and others in the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) have continued to innovate and focus on electric vehicles. In March, Japan saw a significant rise in coal prices, driven by increased local demand and higher prices from exporting countries. This uptick, affecting materials, fuel, and shipping costs, boosted overall expenditures, and led to higher output prices. This shift hints at a better balance between supply and demand in Japan's market, impacting Electrical steel pricing. The industry's growth has raised inflation rates, though there's a slowdown in manufacturing and an increase in new orders, suggesting a potential increase in prices.
Europe
The market for Electrical Steel in the Europe region experienced a challenging first quarter of 2024, with prices declining significantly. Several factors influenced the market prices during this period. Firstly, there was a decrease in demand from the downstream construction industries, which resulted in lower consumption of Electrical Steel. This trend was particularly evident in Germany, where the residential construction and housing sector faced a decline, leading to concerns about a potential recession in the German economy. Additionally, the overall economic conditions in the spot market were deteriorating, causing buyers to adopt a cautious approach and delay their purchasing decisions. The prices of Electrical Steel in Europe showed a negative correlation with the economic conditions, reflecting the weakened demand. In terms of seasonality, the first quarter of 2024 saw a 24% decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year. There was also a 13% decline in prices from the previous quarter in 2024. The second half of the quarter experienced a further decline of 11% compared to the first half, highlighting the downward trend in prices. Overall, the pricing environment for Electrical Steel in the Europe region during the first quarter of 2024 was negative, with prices experiencing a significant decline. The market was influenced by factors such as decreased demand from the construction sector, deteriorating economic conditions, and a negative correlation with overall market sentiment.
