For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) market in Q4 2024 exhibited a mixed price trajectory largely influenced by the dynamics of the global electrolyte market. Initially, the quarter witnessed relative price stability amidst an oversupplied electrolyte market and reduced consumer inquiries.
This oversupply, driven by factors such as increased production from major players, exerted significant downward pressure on dimethyl carbonate prices. While demand from the EV sector, particularly in the US, showed promising growth, it was insufficient to offset the impact of oversupply. Towards the end of the quarter, prices began to decline further, primarily due to cautious purchasing behavior from battery manufacturers and EV makers.
This cautious approach was influenced by factors such as tightening regulations in key markets and concerns about the overall economic outlook. Despite these challenges, the North American DMC market demonstrated some resilience. The growing demand for EVs in the region, albeit at a slower pace compared to other markets, continued to support the market. However, the overall market sentiment remained subdued, with concerns about oversupply and potential price volatility persisting.
APAC
The Dimethyl Carbonate market in the APAC region during Q4 2024 witnessed a period of price appreciation driven by a confluence of factors. The quarter commenced with a bullish trend, primarily fueled by increased cost support from the upstream Methanol market, driven by rising crude oil prices amidst geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. This, coupled with strong demand from downstream manufacturing plants for pre-holiday inventory buildup, led to a significant increase in spot market prices. While some fluctuations were observed due to factors like seasonal demand variations and year-end destocking activities, the overall trend remained positive. The robust growth in the lithium-ion battery industry, driven by surging demand for electric vehicles, significantly bolstered demand for Dimethyl Carbonate, a key component in electrolyte production. Despite some challenges such as fluctuations in raw material prices and increased competition from LiPF6 market, and a slight slowdown in demand towards the end of the year, the Dimethyl Carbonate market in APAC demonstrated resilience, with prices closing the quarter on a positive note.
Europe
The Dimethyl Carbonate market in Europe during Q4 2024 exhibited a complex price trajectory. The quarter began with a bearish trend, primarily driven by a significant influx of cheaper imports from Asia. Declining freight charges and increased container availability further exacerbated the downward pressure on prices. While Chinese producers have initiated efforts to curb output, these measures have proven insufficient to stabilize the market. A notable shift occurred mid-quarter, with prices experiencing a gradual increase. This upward trend was primarily attributed to rising production costs in major exporting nations, particularly driven by increased LiPF6 prices and higher demand from the domestic market. However, European demand remained relatively subdued, with limited impact on the overall market dynamics. Towards the end of the quarter, prices experienced further appreciation due to the arrival of higher-priced imports from China. Rising demand for electrolytes from Chinese battery cell manufacturers, coupled with increased production costs, significantly impacted export prices. Despite this upward pressure, European demand remained weak, with no significant supply shortages observed in the region.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Dimethyl Carbonate market in North America faced a significant downturn, with prices showing a sharp decline compared to the same period last year. This decrease was driven by several factors affecting market dynamics, including weak demand, elevated inventory levels, and slow procurement activities. Increased imports and minimal cost support from upstream sectors also exerted downward pressure, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
In the U.S., where the most substantial price fluctuations were noted, the trend mirrored the broader North American market. Prices began to decline early in the quarter due to ongoing challenges, and this downward trajectory persisted into the second half of the quarter, highlighting a sustained drop in pricing.
By the close of the quarter, dimethyl carbonate prices had settled at lower levels, reflecting a challenging market environment shaped by oversupply and weak demand. The pricing trend for dimethyl carbonate in North America throughout Q3 2024 was consistently negative, marked by an oversupplied market, tepid demand, and difficult conditions across both upstream and downstream sectors.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the Dimethyl Carbonate market in the APAC region remained stable, with prices showing no significant fluctuations. This stability can be attributed to several key factors influencing market dynamics. The quarter saw normal demand from the downstream battery manufacturing sector, supported by sufficient material availability. However, overall trading activity was moderate, with producers maintaining regular operating levels, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario. Upstream factors, such as the moderate increase in crude oil prices, also played a role in maintaining market stability. In China, which experienced the most notable price changes, the market trend mirrored the overall stable environment in the region. Despite slight fluctuations, prices remained relatively steady. Comparing to the same quarter last year, there was a 10% decrease in prices, indicating some pricing pressure. However, from the previous quarter in 2024, prices recorded a 5% increase, reflecting a slight recovery. Notably, there was no price variance between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter concluded with Dimethyl Carbonate priced at USD 590/MT FOB Shenzhen, underlining the prevailing stable sentiment in the market.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European market for dimethyl carbonate experienced a persistent decline in prices, reflecting a bearish outlook influenced by several key factors. Oversupply conditions, coupled with weak demand from both Asia and North America, played a significant role in the downward price trajectory. Additionally, limited cost support from upstream markets further weighed on the pricing of dimethyl carbonate during the quarter. Challenging market conditions, marked by high inventory levels and sluggish demand, exacerbated the price drop. European manufacturers faced additional hurdles, including elevated production costs, subdued consumer demand from the downstream sectors, and a deteriorating economic climate, all of which contributed to the ongoing challenges in the dimethyl carbonate market. Belgium, in particular, witnessed the most significant price fluctuations within the region. The substantial year-on-year decline highlights the difficult market environment. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter price changes and the notable difference between the first and second halves of the quarter underscore the consistent downward trend in dimethyl carbonate prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American dimethyl carbonate market demonstrated mixed trends. During the initial weeks, the prices declined as oversupply and weak procurement from the consumer market led to price drops. Demand for dimethyl carbonate remained steady at moderate levels, with ample availability of the product in the local market. Many consumers are hesitant to purchase significant quantities of dimethyl carbonate at elevated prices from downstream and terminal markets, according to industry experts. Despite robust sales in March, many automakers experienced subdued performance in April, with only electric vehicle sales showing notable growth.
U.S. consumer interest in purchasing electric vehicles has declined, with surveys indicating only a small portion of the population’s interest in EVs. However, hybrid vehicles continued to attract strong interest due to their electrification benefits without significant lifestyle disruptions. Additionally, Tesla is close to losing its position as the leading EV seller in the U.S., with other manufacturers selling approximately 597,000 fully electric vehicles over the past year compared to Tesla's 618,000. This reflects growing competition and potential market saturation concerns for EVs.
On the supply side of dimethyl carbonate, freight charges along major sea trade routes have increased, making shipments to the U.S. more expensive. Unexpected rises in ocean freight demand from Asia, driven by restocking cycles in Europe and North American importers pulling forward peak season demand, have added strain to the already stretched container market. Reduced conflict risk premiums, especially in the Middle East, have eased expectations of supply disruptions, leading to further reductions in international freight charges.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the pricing landscape for Dimethyl Carbonate in the APAC region exhibited a dynamic shift, driven by a confluence of market fundamentals and seasonal factors. The quarter has been marked by a moderate upswing in prices, spurred primarily by a decline in domestic market activities, cautious downstream procurement, and elevated freight rates. The stabilizing Methanol market provided average cost support, while limited inventories and consistent demand from key industries like polycarbonate manufacturing also contributed to the price increase. China has been at the epicenter of these changes, experiencing the most significant price fluctuations. Throughout the quarter, the market remained stable yet exhibited a consolidating trend, influenced by factors such as factory maintenance shutdowns, cautious buyer behavior, and strategic price adjustments by manufacturers. The correlation between upstream raw material costs and freight rate hikes led to price stabilization, with a 2% price increase noted between the first and second half of the quarter. Seasonality played a pivotal role, with unseasonal demand surges and capacity constraints causing periodic market congestion, especially in major trade routes. The pricing environment for Dimethyl Carbonate in China has been positive, characterized by a gradual yet steady appreciation in value, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 580/MT FOB Shenzhen. This consistent increase signifies a cautiously optimistic outlook for the market, balancing supply-demand dynamics and maintaining profitability amidst fluctuating economic conditions.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Dimethyl Carbonate market in Europe noted various constraints that significantly influenced prices. The market experienced instability due to dampened consumer demand, but prices were somewhat stable. Demand from the downstream lithium-ion battery sector was moderate. In the major exporting nations, sellers reduced prices in response to an oversupply situation, with producers increasing production levels in anticipation of higher import volumes in April compared to March. This indicated a trend of supply recovery for the Dimethyl Carbonate market. In Belgium, the prices of dimethyl carbonate dropped plunged in the mid-Q2 due to weak demand fundamentals, despite support from steady upstream prices of raw materials. Finished product inventory levels have helped maintain market balance, although spot transactions have remained stable. The data showed a decline in domestic sales, with consumption in downstream markets staying consistent. The slowdown in electric two-wheeler growth was linked to reduced subsidies and challenges faced by some OEMs, along with delays in subsidy disbursements impacting affordability and market expansion. Meanwhile, increased freight charges across major sea trade routes have made shipments more expensive, adding strain to the container market due to unseasonal demand and potential restocking cycles. Overall, the dimethyl carbonate market remains calm, with limited activity observed in the region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American dimethyl carbonate market continued to encounter challenges. The supply of dimethyl carbonate in the region remained high, with consumption sluggish and procurement levels heavy from previous periods. The domestic automotive industry's demand for dimethyl carbonate remained low, reflecting market participants' cautious approach. Major manufacturers prioritized fulfilling long-term orders, resulting in lower domestic inventories due to slow replenishments.
Furthermore, international trade encountered obstacles during this timeframe, attributable to conflict in the Middle East and drought in the Panama Canal. These factors led to delayed container shipments and increased freight costs. Increasing competition from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers further impacted the profitability of US-based EV companies, adding to market challenges.
Additionally, high-interest rates increased the cost of financing, slowing down the adoption of electric vehicles globally. Despite persistent inflation in other consumer goods, the purchase of optional electric vehicles remained slower than anticipated, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the North American dimethyl carbonate market.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing environment for Dimethyl Carbonate in the APAC region was largely negative, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. Several factors influenced the market prices during this period. Weak demand from downstream industries, such as battery and polycarbonate manufacturing, has been a major contributor to the downward trend. The sluggish inquiries and limited support from buyers resulted in pressure on overall shipments, leading to a weak market performance.
In China, which saw the maximum price changes, the situation has been similar. The market was majorly characterized by a lackluster performance and a prevailing weak and downward trajectory. The weak demand, along with increased supply from domestic factories exerted pressure on the prices of Dimethyl Carbonate. Additionally, the weakness in the propylene glycol market, which is closely related to Dimethyl Carbonate, also influenced the prices.
Compared to the same quarter last year, the prices of Dimethyl Carbonate have declined by 32%. In terms of quarterly changes, the prices have decreased by 11% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. Overall, the pricing environment for Dimethyl Carbonate in the APAC region has been negative, with prices experiencing a consistent decrease throughout the quarter. As the quarter comes to an end, the latest price of Dimethyl Carbonate FOB Shenzhen in China stands at USD 540/MT.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Dimethyl Carbonate market in Europe noted various constraints that significantly influenced prices. These challenges mirrored those of the previous quarter, with oversupply being a primary factor leading to reduced demand and subsequently lower prices. The continued sluggish demand from the downstream lithium-ion battery manufacturing sector persisted, as consumers remained cautious amid declining prices.
Additionally, the dominance of the Chinese market in Europe added to the overall bearish sentiment. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, like BYD, continued to witness substantial sales growth, surpassing Tesla as the leading global electric carmaker. This increased competition further impacted the profitability of European-based EV companies. However, Belgium stood out as an exception, experiencing a significant surge in sales of battery electric cars with a remarkable growth pace.
Additionally, global trade continued to face problems during this period due to conflict in the Middle East and drought in the Panama Canal, resulting in delayed container shipments and higher freight charges. Despite this, the fierce pricing competition among European, US, and Chinese EV manufacturers persisted. Throughout this challenging period, the market faced multiple shutdowns, resulting in disruptions that directly influenced prices. Despite these obstacles, there were some slight developments in market transactions for Dimethyl Carbonate in Belgium during the quarter.
