For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Cyclopentanone prices remained relatively stable within a narrow range, influenced by various concurrent factors. The U.S. economy displayed mixed signals, with underlying resilience offset by persistent inflation worries and geopolitical instability.
Supply conditions were driven by steady manufacturing output and shifting trade patterns. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufacturing industries dipped slightly from 249.624 in Q2 to 248.383 in Q3, indicating modest cost savings for producers. Inventory replenishment after significant drawdowns earlier in the year supported economic recovery, with Q2 GDP growth reaching 3.0% and forecasted annual growth at 2.7%.
Consumer activity and business investments, propelled by initiatives like the CHIPS Act, sustained demand, while inflation eased below 3.0% in July. Nevertheless, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside potential import tariffs, posed risks to supply chains and trade flows. Although the Fed’s planned interest rate cuts are expected to boost spending and growth, uncertainties in labor markets and trade policies could influence the supply outlook moving into 2025.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed a challenging period for Cyclopentanone pricing, characterized by a notable downward trend. Various factors contributed to this decline, including weakened industrial demand, supply stability, and economic uncertainties. The market grappled with subdued industrial output, particularly in key sectors like property and retail, leading to reduced demand for chemicals. Additionally, disruptions from extreme weather events further hampered production activities. China, experiencing the most significant price changes, faced high supply levels amidst a slowdown in industrial production and lower overall demand. The quarter saw a notable -10% decrease from the previous quarter, with a -7% drop observed between the first and second half. Despite seasonal optimism potentially influencing prices, the overall sentiment remained bearish. The quarter ended with Cyclopentanone priced at USD 3803/MT FOB Shanghai basis, reflecting the prevailing negative pricing environment. Notably, no plant shutdowns were reported during this period.
Europe
During Q3 2024, Cyclopentanone prices in Europe fluctuated within a narrow range, influenced by economic uncertainties linked to the ongoing conflict in West Asia and sluggish growth in both Europe and the U.S. Rising freight costs, container shortages, and logistical issues were prominent. Shipping giants such as MSC and CMA CGM raised FAK rates to as high as $6,500 per container, driven by space limitations and added operational fees. Delays due to Red Sea disruptions and Singapore port congestion further complicated the situation. Air freight rates from Northeast Asia to Europe also spiked, fueled by booming e-commerce and semiconductor demand, with spot rates rising 40% year-over-year. Despite efforts to expand capacity, the imbalance between outbound and return loads persisted. With rising geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, freight market volatility is likely to extend into Q4. Economically, Europe experienced stagnation in Q3, as Germany’s industrial sector struggled with weak output, high energy costs, and falling exports, contributing to broader challenges across the eurozone.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a significant upward trend in Cyclopentanone prices in the North American market. The faced supply constraints due to moderate to low manufacturing rates and intermittent labor shortages, exacerbating the disparity between supply and demand. In addition, the robust performance of key downstream sectors, especially paints and coatings, has maintained the upward pressure on Cyclopentanone prices.
In the construction sector, demand for Cyclopentanone was bolstered by strong activity as the spring buying season commenced. Construction projects across the country saw a significant increase in activity, with initiatives such as rural highway repaving, freeway-style interchange construction, and safety enhancements aimed at addressing infrastructure needs and accommodating growing transportation demands. This surge in construction reflected efforts to meet increasing demands, maintain existing infrastructure, and expand transportation networks to support various modes of transportation.
Moreover, the hospitality sector showed positive signals, with the volume of hotel rooms under construction growing year-over-year for the first time since June 2023, indicating a gradual recovery. These combined factors have driven up the demand for Cyclopentanone, a crucial ingredient for construction paints and coatings.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region experienced a significant downturn in Cyclopentanone prices, driven by several key factors. The substantial price decline was primarily due to an ample supply amid weakening demand from major downstream industries such as automotive and rubber. This period was marked by reduced domestic consumption, exacerbated by economic uncertainties and competitive pressures from alternative markets. The overall market sentiment was further strained by logistical challenges, including increased freight charges and extended shipping routes, which hampered supply chain efficiency. Additionally, regional disruptions like the Red Sea crises led to higher insurance costs and surcharges, increasing the supply chain's vulnerability. In China, the Cyclopentanone market witnessed the most significant price fluctuations. The overall trend showed a consistent decline, largely influenced by seasonal variations and a sluggish domestic market. The second half of the quarter saw a sharper price drop of 7% compared to the first half, indicating persistent downward pressure. This declining trend was further highlighted by an 11% reduction from the previous quarter, underscoring a continuously negative pricing environment. Contributing factors included reduced refinery run rates and the absence of significant plant shutdowns, which emphasized the weak market conditions. Overall, the pricing environment for Cyclopentanone in China during the second quarter of 2024 was overwhelmingly negative, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 4,090 per metric ton FOB Shanghai.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the Cyclopentanone market in Europe faced a challenging environment, characterized by a consistent downward trend in prices. Several key factors contributed to this decline, most notably the subdued demand from major end-user sectors such as construction and automotive. The construction industry experienced a downturn, primarily due to a combination of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. High financing costs and unfavorable weather conditions further exacerbated the situation, leading to a reduction in demand for Cyclopentanone, an essential component in construction-related paints and coatings. Consequently, the decreased activity in the construction sector significantly impacted the consumption of Cyclopentanone. Similarly, the automotive sector witnessed a decline, particularly in the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) and passenger cars. This slump was partly attributed to the withdrawal of government incentives for battery-powered electric vehicles, which resulted in a noticeable decrease in new registrations. The reduction in demand for Cyclopentanone, crucial for the production of automotive coatings and other related products, added to the challenges faced by the market. Overall, these factors collectively contributed to the persistent downward pressure on Cyclopentanone prices in Europe during the second quarter of 2024.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
During the quarter, the Cyclopentanone market witnessed a blend of positive and negative trends. Despite stable demand, the market experienced fluctuations due to various factors. Notably, the USA market saw significant price changes, influenced by factors like low domestic demand from automotive and rubber sectors, alongside logistical challenges in the shipping industry due to the Red Sea crisis.
These factors led to both price declines and increases throughout the quarter. Moreover, seasonality contributed to price changes. Forthcoming summer season spurred demand from the fragrance personal care segment, supporting prices initially. Additionally, robust demand in the western market during New Year festivities provided a temporary uplift, albeit tapering off later in the month. Conversely, the Asian market remained active in anticipation of Lunar New Year, Ramadan, and Easter festivities during the last two months of the quarter.
Overall, while demand remained relatively stable, the Cyclopentanone market experienced fluctuations influenced by sector-specific demand, logistical challenges, and seasonal variations across different regions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for market participants to navigate through the complexities of price fluctuations and demand patterns.
APAC
During this quarter, there has been a mix of positive and negative trends in the Cyclopentanone market in Asia. The demand for the product has remained stable, with moderate to low supplies. In China specifically, the market has experienced the maximum price fluctuations. However, the market has been influenced by factors such as low domestic demand from the automotive/rubber segment, as well as logistical challenges in the shipping industry due to the Red Sea crisis. These factors have contributed to both price declines and increases throughout the quarter. Additionally, seasonality has played a role in the price changes. The start of the summer season has led to increased demand from the personal care segment, providing some support to prices. However, the overall market sentiment has been bearish, with the Chinese PMI remaining below 50 base points, indicating a general lack of demand in the country. The overall sentiment has been bearish, with a lack of demand in China. The latest quarter-ending price for Cyclopentanone FOB Shanghai in China is USD 4120/MT.
Europe
During the quarter, the Cyclopentanone market witnessed a blend of positive and negative trends. Despite stable demand, the market experienced fluctuations due to various factors. Notably, the German market saw significant price changes, influenced by factors like low domestic demand from automotive and rubber segment, alongside logistical challenges in the shipping industry due to the Red Sea crisis. These factors led to both price declines and increases throughout the quarter. Moreover, seasonality contributed to price changes. Forthcoming summer season spurred demand from the fragrance and personal care segment, supporting prices initially. Additionally, robust demand in the western market during New Year festivities provided a temporary uplift, albeit tapering off later in the month. Conversely, the Asian market remained active in anticipation of Lunar New Year, Ramadan, and Easter festivities during the last two months of the quarter. Overall, while demand remained relatively stable, the Cyclopentanone market experienced fluctuations influenced by sector-specific demand, logistical challenges, and seasonal variations across different regions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for market participants to navigate through the complexities of price fluctuations and demand patterns.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
During the last quarter of 2023, Cyclopentanone prices have declined continuously on the back of diminishing demand dynamics and stable inventories. It has been noted that procurements have faced significant constraints, according to reports from market participants. Market activity has slowed down in the North American region in the second half of the quarter while there were ample procurements in the first half of the quarter.
The dynamics of the Cyclopentanone market have become more complex due to a combination of factors, where procurers are facing restrictions in their procurement activities due to reduced demand from downstream industries, leading to subdued market activity.
Simultaneously, potential buyers are struggling to obtain substantial material and are encountering significant inventory challenges in the process. The situation is exacerbated by the limited availability of volumes in the domestic spot market. Earlier in the quarter, the demand from both pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals segment was active as market participants procured proactively. However, the buying sentiments diminished towards the last two months of Q4 2023. Hence, prices of Cyclopentanone in the US were assessed at USD 4123 per MT after conclusion of November 2023.
Europe
Across Europe, Cyclopentanone prices steadily dropped throughout the final quarter of 2023, driven by softening demand and stable stockpiles. Market participants reported significant limitations in procurement, causing market activity to weaken further in the latter half of the quarter, despite earlier brisk buying in the first half. The European Cyclopentanone market has become increasingly intricate. Reduced demand from downstream industries has restricted purchasing activity, leading to quieter market conditions. Additionally, potential buyers face material shortages and significant inventory hurdles, further exacerbated by limited domestic spot market availability. Earlier in the quarter, both pharmaceutical and fine chemical sectors actively procured, but buying sentiment waned significantly during the final two months of Q4 2023. Consequently, European Cyclopentanone prices settled at USD 3845 per MT by the end of November 2023.
Asia
Cyclopentanone prices sustained their overall downtrend during this quarter again owing to high availability and extended process of price stability. As per the data, Cyclopentanone prices have been falling consistently in the Asian market since first quarter of 2023, as the prices were previously hovering at a very high value due to prolonged high production costs and persistent supply chain issues. From the demand perspective, cyclopentane consumer industries have performed well in Asia during this Quarter again, as the key countries had no disturbances in the consumer market, post the government revoked stringent pandemic-related policies. Further, from the perspective of international demand, procurements remained stable to firm from the personal care segment and several key consumers have seen high sales with the arrival of winter. Supplies of the product have been stable throughout the quarter, and there have been no significant supply chain issues observed. Further, prices reaching normalcy remained the key factor for the falling pricing trend. Key consumers had notable hikes in sales during the previous quarter. These are the consumers who primarily deal in the personal care segment, and they are expecting a positive outlook for the product for the last quarter of the year.
