For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the U.S. cardboard market experienced notable price fluctuations, driven by shifting demand and supply dynamics. In October, cardboard prices rose significantly due to increased orders from downstream sectors, particularly in e-commerce, food and beverage, and consumer goods packaging. This surge in demand was supported by a 14.5% increase in U.S. unbleached packaging paper shipments, as reported by the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA).
The expansion of production capacity helped meet this demand, stabilizing supply despite persistent supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures, which drove up production costs. In November, prices continued to rise as mills faced limited raw material inventories, further elevating production costs. Demand remained robust, fueled by holiday-related packaging needs and strong growth in e-commerce.
However, by December, the market saw a reversal, with prices declining due to slowdown in purchasing activity after Thanksgiving holiday. Retailers reduced stockpiling, and e-commerce activity returned to more typical levels, resulting in a sharp decrease in cardboard demand. Despite stable supply conditions, manufacturers adjusted production to align with the lower demand, leading to a more balanced market and a reduction in price pressures as the year ended.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Chinese cardboard market experienced a series of fluctuations, influenced by varying demand and supply dynamics. In October, cardboard prices saw a slight increase after months of stabilization. The demand-driven purchasing approach in the downstream market led to a surge in order volumes as factories prepared for potential price hikes. Large paper mills raised prices, prompting smaller mills to follow suit, resulting in a temporary market uptick. However, by November, prices continued to rise due to strong buying sentiment from the packaging sector, coinciding with a seasonal boost in packaging paper demand. At the same time, wastepaper prices in Zhejiang Province increased as weak domestic commodity consumption and limited recycling reduced the supply elasticity of wastepaper. This supply-demand imbalance, compounded by mill shutdowns and maintenance, further fueled price hikes. By December, however, the market saw a reversal. Prices began to decline as demand softened, particularly in the packaging and e-commerce sectors, which faced a slowdown following the post-holiday period. Reduced industrial output and logistics activity contributed to weaker cardboard orders, while an oversupply in the market, coupled with excess inventory, led to downward price pressure. Overall, the fourth quarter reflected a cycle of rising prices in early months, followed by stabilization and price reductions toward the end as demand weakened.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the cardboard market in Germany and broader Europe experienced significant price fluctuations. In October, cardboard prices rose despite a decline in demand, driven by rising production costs, including higher energy prices, raw material costs like pulp, and labor expenses. Disruptions in supply chains, particularly logistical challenges and inflationary pressures, further exacerbated production costs. However, demand in key sectors such as retail, e-commerce, and packaging softened due to slower consumer spending and delays in supply chains. By November, cardboard prices continued to rise as paper mills passed on the increased production costs, and demand surged ahead of the holiday season. The shift toward eco-friendly packaging and the growing emphasis on recyclable materials further boosted cardboard demand. In December, however, the market saw a reversal. A seasonal slowdown in demand, particularly after the holiday shopping peak, led to a decrease in prices. Retailers reduced orders, and e-commerce activity returned to more typical levels. Despite a stable supply environment, reduced post-holiday demand and lower production rates caused prices to fall. This shift highlights the seasonal nature of cardboard demand and the balancing act between supply pressures and fluctuating consumer activity.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The price increase in Cardboard in the United States is largely influenced by a confluence of rising costs in raw materials, labour, and transportation, coupled with broader economic and regulatory pressures. Supply chain disruptions have led to significant shortages of essential raw materials, driving up costs across the board. The heightened demand for cardboard, particularly from the booming e-commerce sector, has intensified the supply-demand imbalance, compounding these challenges.
On the supply side, North America is facing significant hurdles due to adverse weather conditions, including hurricanes and typhoons, which have disrupted logistics and production activities. These extreme weather events have severely strained supply chains, resulting in delays for raw material deliveries and hindering the production timelines of cardboard manufacturers.
As manufacturers contend with these multifaceted challenges, the outlook for cardboard packaging prices remains uncertain. The interplay of rising costs, supply chain instability, and fluctuating demand will likely continue to shape the market in the near future. In the quarter end, the cost of Cardboard settled at USD 530/1000 pcs on a FOB Illinois basis.
APAC
In the APAC region, cardboard prices held steady throughout Q3 2024, largely due to weak demand from downstream sectors. The slowdown in key industries, including packaging and consumer goods, contributed to this stable pricing environment. As consumer behavior shifted and economic activity cooled in several countries, manufacturers faced challenges in maintaining robust sales. In India, however, the cardboard market experienced a notable decline, with prices dropping by 15% Ex-Mumbai. This decline was influenced by a combination of factors, including reduced production rates and increased competition among suppliers. Despite the drop in prices, the overall demand remained sluggish, limiting any significant recovery. Additionally, feedstock woodpulp prices also fell in Asia, further impacting production costs for cardboard manufacturers. While the reduction in woodpulp costs could offer some relief, it was not enough to offset the persistent weak demand. As Q3 came to a close, industry stakeholders remained cautiously optimistic about the potential for a rebound in demand. However, without significant improvements in downstream consumption, the outlook for the cardboard market in the region appears uncertain.
Europe
In the European region, cardboard prices remained stable throughout Q3 2024, primarily driven by weak demand from downstream sectors. Despite challenges in the manufacturing and service industries, consumption of cardboard in the goods and services segments has shown relative stability. However, the softer growth in the European economy raises concerns about the anticipated demand recovery in the latter half of the year. The ongoing reduction in new orders signals a cautious market outlook, particularly in key economies like Germany and France, which have underperformed compared to other regions. This stagnation is compounded by high input prices and inflationary pressures, which are keeping overall inflation levels elevated, likely surpassing the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. Such economic conditions may further delay the ECB’s schedule for interest rate cuts, inhibiting investment and spending that could stimulate packaging paper demand. As industry stakeholders assess the landscape, they remain watchful for any signs of recovery. Until there is a marked improvement in economic conditions and a resurgence in new orders, the cardboard market may continue to experience challenges in achieving significant growth. In the quarter end, the cost of Cardboard settled at USD 210/1000 pcs on an FD Hamburg basis.
