For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, the Cardboard Price Index rose by 2.03% quarter-over-quarter, driven by tighter nationwide supply.
• The average Cardboard price for the quarter was approximately USD 585.00/MT, reflecting modest seasonal stability.
• Cardboard Spot Price firmed as mill closures removed regional capacity and supported list price resilience.
• Cardboard Price Forecast suggests modest gains in early 2026 as post-holiday restocking supports demand and margins.
• Cardboard Production Cost Trend shows steady recovered fibre and neutral energy costs thereby limiting upside.
• Cardboard Demand Outlook weakened amid softer manufacturing and restrained exporter purchases from Mexico and Canada.
• Cardboard Price Index movement reflected balanced inventories, stable logistics, and selective mill downtime management practices.
• Export and domestic order books restrained pricing, with converters trimming orders ahead of year end.
Why did the price of Cardboard change in December 2025 in North America?
• Mill closures and reduced capacity tightened regional availability, supporting firmer Price Index levels across markets.
• Year-end order trimming and weak manufacturing demand reduced box pull-through and thereby pressured spot prices.
• Stable recovered fibre and neutral energy costs limited cost-push, enabling mills to accept modest concessions.
APAC
• In China, the Cardboard Price Index rose by 9.01% quarter-over-quarter, as wastepaper costs and seasonality increased.
• The average Cardboard price for the quarter was USD 246.00/MT, reflecting export and packaging demand.
• Cardboard Spot Price firmed as recovered paper availability tightened, prompting converters to restock before holidays.
• Cardboard Price Forecast indicates stabilization near-term as mills moderate volumes and buyers manage inventories conservatively.
• Cardboard Production Cost Trend rose on recovered paper and energy increases, supporting mill pricing discipline.
• Cardboard Demand Outlook remains positive for e-commerce and exports; the Price Index reflects seasonal strength.
• Cardboard Price Index eased as coastal producers maintained shipments and bonded warehouses reported stock increases.
• Export booking slowdown in December encouraged selective discounting by mills to preserve overall export volumes.
Why did the price of Cardboard change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Weakened export call-offs from Southeast Asian converters reduced December demand, prompting mills to concede lower export offers.
• Stable energy and freight costs limited upward-cost pressure, removing a major justification for December price increases.
• Inventories at bonded warehouses rose modestly and buyers normalized post-festival restocking, reducing spot enquiry intensity.
Europe
• In Germany, the Cardboard Price Index rose by 1.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting mild supply tightness overall conditions.
• The average Cardboard price for the quarter was approximately USD 284.00/MT per FD Hamburg assessments conditions.
• Cardboard Spot Price remained comfortable as imports from Poland and Czechia eased short-term tightness locally conditions.
• Cardboard Price Forecast suggests modest spring recovery as converters cautiously replenish inventories after holidays seasonally conditions.
• Cardboard Production Cost Trend remained flat due to stable recovered paper and stable energy tariffs conditions.
• Cardboard Demand Outlook stays balanced with steady FMCG and e-commerce volumes, insufficient to tighten markets conditions.
• Cardboard Price Index movements were muted as mills resisted cuts while converters limited spot purchasing.
• Inventory and export flows through Hamburg remained seasonal, supporting availability and suppressing pronounced market volatility.
Why did the price of Cardboard change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Stable recovered paper supplies and balanced mill output prevented cost-push transmission, keeping December prices unchanged.
• Smooth cross-border logistics and predictable Hamburg export flows alleviated spot tightness, maintaining market equilibrium conditions.
• Weak finished-goods demand and year-end just-in-time buying limited converters' purchases, notably constraining upward price pressure.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Cardboard Price Index rose by 2.99% quarter-over-quarter, due to tighter supply.
• The average Cardboard price for the quarter was approximately USD 573.33/MT, lifted by input cost.
• Cardboard Spot Price strengthened after mill curtailments, supporting the broader Cardboard Price Index amid restocking.
• Cardboard Price Forecast points to moderate gains entering autumn as seasonal restocking and surcharges persist.
• Cardboard Production Cost Trend remains high from recycled-fibre scarcity and volatile energy, compressing mill profitability.
• Cardboard Demand Outlook is stable-to-improving with e-commerce and retail restocking offsetting weaker industrial orders seasonally.
• Accumulated inventories pressured spot availability, but rising exports and restocking lifted the Cardboard Price Index.
• Major mills applied surcharges and maintained throughput, while logistics constraints kept Cardboard Spot Price supported.
Why did the price of Cardboard change in September 2025 in North America?
• Supply constraints from mill closures and maintenance reduced output, tightening availability and raising spot bids.
• Elevated recycled-fibre and energy costs increased production expenses, prompting mills to implement surcharges this quarter.
• Stronger e-commerce and retail restocking increased demand in September, offsetting industrial weakness and tightening markets.
APAC
• In China, the Cardboard Price Index fell by 1.74% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weak domestic demand conditions.
• The average Cardboard price for the quarter was approximately USD 225.67/MT, influenced by pulp logistics.
• Cardboard Spot Price movements were muted as port congestion eased and mills strategically destocked inventories.
• Cardboard Price Forecast suggests modest uplift into September as festival restocking counterbalances softer export demand.
• Cardboard Production Cost Trend shows easing pressure from abundant pulp despite ongoing wastepaper collection constraints.
• Cardboard Demand Outlook remains subdued post-Golden Week, with cautious buying from packaging sectors; weak exports.
• Cardboard Price Index resilience was limited by inventory overhang despite mill price increases stabilizing margins.
• Logistics constraints and port congestion intermittently tightened supply, briefly supporting prices and affecting export competitiveness.
Why did the price of Cardboard change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Ample pulp imports and domestic production offset Finnish strike impacts, keeping raw material costs contained.
• Subdued downstream packaging demand and cautious restocking limited buying, pressuring the Cardboard Price Index downward.
• Port congestion and wastepaper collection issues raised operational costs, prompting selective mill price adjustments locally.
Europe
• In Germany, the Cardboard Price Index rose by 6.23% quarter-over-quarter, driven by energy and pulp.
• The average Cardboard price for the quarter was approximately USD 278.67/MT, reflecting higher input costs.
• Cardboard Spot Price increased as Hamburg congestion and surcharges reduced available shipments and expedited deliveries.
• Cardboard Production Cost Trend increased due to rising energy and volatile wood pulp procurement expenses.
• Cardboard Demand Outlook remains firm for FMCG and food packaging, offset by postponed industrial orders.
• Cardboard Price Forecast shows modest monthly variability, with temporary surcharges supporting realized rates into Q4.
• Inventory builds pressured spot availability, while weaker exports reduced demand and eased Price Index momentum.
• Selective maintenance shutdowns and freight volatility constrained throughput, with Hamburg congestion influencing Cardboard Price Index.
Why did the price of Cardboard change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Port congestion and constrained recovered paper collections delayed inputs, tightening supply and elevating production costs.
• Rising energy and wood pulp prices increased mill expenses, triggering temporary surcharges and price adjustments.
• Freight rate volatility and buyers front-loading orders created uneven availability, sustaining short-term price resilience overall.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• In April 2025, the Price Index for U.S. cardboard declined after a brief March recovery. Weakened export interest due to overseas tariff concerns and high inventory levels led to downward price pressure.
• In May 2025, the Price Index continued to fall, reflecting persistent oversupply and soft demand from sectors such as e-commerce, electronics, and automotive packaging.
• In June 2025, the U.S. cardboard Price Index reversed course, increasing by 4% to approximately USD 569/MT, due to rising raw material and energy costs, a surge in e-commerce demand, and new import tariffs affecting input materials.
Why did the cardboard Price Index change in July 2025 in the USA?
• The Cardboard Price Index in July 2025 is exhibited to a residual upward pressure from June's surge, following costlier inputs and sustained demand from e-commerce and consumer goods.
• However, there are signs of stabilization in later month as smaller buyers delay purchases seeking price steadiness, and ongoing supply management mitigates the risk of oversupply.
• Market consensus anticipates either steady or moderately increasing prices, contingent on how quickly inventory and demand balances evolve.
Asia
• In April 2025, the cardboard Price Index in China continued its downward trajectory, driven by persistent oversupply and weak demand from the packaging sector.
• The situation worsened due to high inventory levels at corrugated mills and increased import competition from cheaper foreign raw paper, which exerted further downward pressure on domestic prices.
• In May 2025, the Price Index declined by an additional 2.2%, reflecting weaker demand and eased pulp prices. The fall in both coniferous and broadleaf pulp costs contributed to further softening in cardboard prices.
• In June 2025, the Price Index dropped again, reaching approximately USD 234/MT FOB Shanghai, despite temporary global pulp supply disruptions. Continued weak demand and market oversupply drove prices lower.
Why did the cardboard Price Index change in July 2025 in Asia?
• The Price Index in July 2025 remained stable, reflecting a balance between cautious downstream restocking and persistent oversupply.
• Neither significant demand growth nor supply constraints occurred, leading to price stabilization.
• The Cardboard Price Forecast anticipates a flat to mildly positive trend depending on demand recovery and raw material cost fluctuations.
Europe
• April 2025: Cardboard Price Index rose sharply due to escalating raw material costs, especially for recovered paper grades supermarket paper and board (1.04) and mixed paper (1.02).
• May 2025: Cardboard Price Index increased by 1.9%, driven by acute logistical disruptions centered around Hamburg port congestion.
• June 2025: Cardboard Price Index surged by 9.4% to USD 286/MT, influenced by rising energy costs, volatile wood pulp prices, and ongoing logistical bottlenecks.
Why did the Price of Cardboard Change in July 2025 in Europe?
• Cardboard prices in Germany likely increased in July 2025, continuing the trend from Q2 due to persistent supply chain constraints, elevated production costs, and strong demand momentum.
• The combination of sustained port congestion, inflationary pressures on raw materials, and heightened procurement urgency from key sectors supports this upward price trajectory.
• Production costs increased steadily due to surging energy expenses, fluctuating wood pulp prices, and operational inefficiencies caused by port congestion and labor shortages.
• Demand remained robust across consumer goods, FMCG, food packaging, and pharmaceuticals sectors, with little seasonal slowdown observed.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American cardboard market in Q1 2025 exhibited a stabilization phase following early-year volatility. Supply remained steady with domestic mills operating at normal capacity and inventories well-managed across production and distribution channels.
Demand dynamics reflected a normalization after a surge driven by restocking in packaging and retail sectors, supported by ongoing economic recovery and seasonal factors. Market participants maintained a cautious stance, balancing procurement strategies amid evolving raw material cost pressures and monitoring broader economic indicators for future directional cues.
In the USA, cardboard prices declined marginally by 0.47% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging $560.0 USD/MT during the quarter with a flat intra-quarter trend. This price stability reflects a balance between steady supply and moderated demand following January's restocking surge. Cost pressures from rising pulp prices and cautious buyer behavior amid economic uncertainties have tempered price growth, resulting in a stable market outlook. Near-term forecasts anticipate slight price declines in spring, followed by modest recovery in summer, signalling a cautiously balanced market environment.
APAC
The APAC cardboard market in Q1 2025 exhibited mixed dynamics shaped by supply constraints and fluctuating demand across key economies. Raw material cost pressures, particularly for pulp and wastepaper, alongside currency depreciation in certain regions, intensified input expenses. Despite these challenges, demand remained resilient, supported by robust packaging requirements from e-commerce, retail, and FMCG sectors. Seasonal factors and government incentives further influenced consumption patterns, while supply chain adjustments and inventory management led to cautious price movements and a generally balanced market sentiment.
In China, cardboard prices declined marginally by 0.93% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging USD 247.67/MT during the quarter. Monthly prices remained relatively flat, reflecting stable demand supported by domestic subsidies and export-driven stockpiling ahead of tariff concerns. Supply tightness contributed to price support, yet cautious post-holiday demand and production normalization tempered upward momentum. The market outlook is stable to mildly bullish, with anticipated seasonal demand increases and export activity expected to sustain price levels.
Europe
The European cardboard market in Q1 2025 exhibited a nuanced progression, beginning with stability in January followed by a notable demand resurgence in February driven by restocking and stronger consumption across packaging, e-commerce, and export sectors. Supply chains faced cost pressures from rising pulp prices, yet production levels were maintained through robust logistics and inventory management. Market sentiment improved as manufacturers and distributors prepared for anticipated demand, although cautious purchasing behavior emerged toward mid-quarter amid supply uncertainties and price volatility.
In Germany, cardboard prices increased by 1.17% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, averaging $230.67 USD/MT in the current quarter with a largely flat intra-quarter trend. This stability reflects balanced supply amid elevated pulp costs and heightened demand fueled by restocking and export growth. The market remains cautiously bullish, supported by steady domestic consumption and strategic procurement, with forecasts indicating stable to slightly declining prices in the near term before a modest recovery mid-year. Overall, the first quarter presented a steady and resilient performance for the German cardboard industry, with growing demand, manageable export issues, and stable buyer sentiment helping to sustain market momentum.
