For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Butyl Rubber market faced persistent bearish sentiments, influenced by multiple economic and market factors. October began with declining production costs, driven by reduced feedstock Isobutylene prices, which contributed to lower market values. Despite a slight uptick in demand from the automotive sector, weaker performance in the tire sector and subdued downstream interest weighed heavily on overall demand. Market participants adopted a cautious stance due to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming presidential election, leading to reduced trading activity and scaled-back production.
In November, bearish trends continued as year-end destocking efforts dominated market dynamics. Ample inventories and reduced demand from the automotive and construction sectors limited new orders, while the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election further impacted sentiment. Anticipation of policy changes, coupled with deregulation-focused strategies, contributed to lower commodity prices and reinforced the market's cautious tone.
By December, seasonal slowdowns in the construction sector and constrained automotive demand sustained the bearish outlook. Businesses remained hesitant to initiate new projects, awaiting clarity on potential policy shifts. Destocking activities, ample inventories, and reduced feedstock costs collectively highlighted the complex interplay of economic, political, and market factors shaping the US Butyl Rubber market.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region faced bearish sentiments due to a mix of economic and industry-specific factors. In October, the market experienced a slight decline, driven by reduced production costs following lower feedstock Isobutylene prices and sufficient inventory levels that met demand. Easing congestion at major ports, including Qingdao, improved supply chain fluidity, further reinforcing the bearish outlook as supply pressures eased. Producers adjusted production rates to align with weak demand, maintaining stable logistics but limiting price movement. November witnessed a stable market, with mixed sentiments. While the downstream automotive sector showed improvement, demand from the tire and construction sectors remained subdued due to ample inventory levels. Reduced feedstock costs helped moderate any potential price increases, and domestic production and imports maintained steady supply, resulting in a restrained trading atmosphere. In December, the market exhibited a sharp decline, despite rising feedstock costs and improved automotive sector performance. Concerns over economic growth, trade policies, and potential US tariffs dampened market confidence, as did cautious behavior among participants. The pre-holiday rush and port congestion failed to drive prices upward due to subdued demand and sufficient inventories, highlighting the market’s continued bearish trend.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European Butyl Rubber market experienced fluctuating sentiments influenced by supply-demand dynamics, economic conditions, and downstream sector performance. In October, the market showed bullish momentum as rising demand from both domestic and international markets, particularly India, offset declining production costs from lower feedstock Isobutylene prices. Insufficient inventories led producers to increase output, while strong trading activity, driven by new overseas orders, bolstered the market’s optimistic outlook. November sustained this upward trend despite broader economic challenges, including labor shortages, high inflation, and elevated interest rates, which created a challenging economic environment. Increased overseas demand supported market stability, while inventory levels remained inadequate to meet downstream requirements. However, economic pressures, including a record 21% interest rate, raised concerns about borrowing costs and business investment. In December, the market shifted to bearish sentiments. Despite rising production costs and improved performance in the automotive sector, limited new orders, year-end destocking activities, and cautious procurement by buyers suppressed demand. Employment and business confidence also declined, further contributing to the downturn. These factors highlight the complex interplay of supply shortages, economic uncertainties, and cautious market behavior in shaping the Butyl Rubber market’s dynamics in Russia.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Saudi Arabia experienced fluctuating trends shaped by shifting demand, supply constraints, and downstream sector performance. In October and November, the market displayed bullish momentum due to strong demand from the Automotive and Construction sectors, supported by the ongoing Vision 2030 initiative and overseas interest. Supply chain disruptions, including Red Sea diversions, created a supply-demand imbalance, leading producers to increase output. Positive business sentiment and stable economic conditions further reinforced the upward trend, with companies ramping up procurement to meet growing demand. In December, the market shifted to bearish sentiments. Despite rising production costs and improvements in the Construction sector, year-end destocking activities and reduced new orders from domestic and international buyers suppressed demand. Efficient supply chain operations, characterized by faster delivery times and improved inventory management, further contributed to market stability but did not prevent the downward trend. Ample inventories and cautious procurement by buyers weighed on the market, reflecting a more efficient but subdued trading atmosphere. This period highlights the interplay of demand fluctuations, supply chain dynamics, and inventory management in shaping the market, with strong initial growth giving way to bearish sentiments toward year-end.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Butyl Rubber pricing landscape in North America during Q3 2024 witnessed a significant uptrend, marked by increasing market prices driven by a confluence of factors. The market dynamics showcased bullishness despite the declining production cost of the commodity due to the decrease in the prices of the feedstock, Isobutylene. The heightened costs of the commodity, despite typical downward pressures from falling production expenses, were counterbalanced by robust demand from key industries, notably the automotive sector.
The surge in demand from downstream players led to a tightening supply situation, further propelling prices upwards. In the USA specifically, the market experienced the most substantial price changes, with a notable -3% decrease from the previous quarter. The correlation between increased demand and rising prices was evident throughout the quarter, reflecting a positive pricing environment.
Despite disruptions like the first Atlantic hurricane and cyberattacks affecting operations, the market remained resilient. The quarter concluded with Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices at USD 2150/MT DEL Texas, underscoring the overall bullish trend in pricing.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region remained stable, with prices showing minimal fluctuations. Various factors influenced market prices during this quarter, including consistent demand from downstream sectors, and balanced supply levels. Notable disruptions occurred in the supply chain due to unforeseen events, such as severe weather conditions which briefly impacted market dynamics. However, overall, the market maintained its equilibrium, supported by steady demand from key industries. Singapore, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. Despite this, the market trend remained stable, reflecting a resilient pricing environment. Seasonal factors and correlation patterns played a crucial role in price stability, ensuring that the market maintained a positive sentiment throughout the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 FOB Jurong in Singapore stood at USD 2090/MT, indicating a consistent and stable pricing environment in the APAC region during Q3 2024.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Europe experienced fluctuating pricing trends driven by several key factors. The overall sentiment was influenced by changes in production costs, overseas demand, and feedstock price fluctuations, particularly isobutylene. In July, prices witnessed an upward trend due to higher production costs and strong export demand, particularly from regions like China and India, despite weaker domestic demand. By August, the market sentiment turned bearish as production costs declined and global demand weakened, leading to oversupply and price softening. The improved domestic automotive sector in Europe mitigated some of the negative effects, but the overall market remained under pressure. In September, while local demand remained stable, sluggish global trade flows continued to impact prices negatively. Supply chain disruptions and inventory buildup led to discounted prices, as market players sought to stabilize pricing. Overall, Q3 2024 experienced a combination of bullish and bearish forces, with heightened volatility reflecting global economic conditions and feedstock price shifts.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Butyl Rubber market experienced a mixed trend, driven primarily by several key factors. During the first half of the second quarter, the Butyl Rubber market maintained its stability at a higher end. The stability can be attributed to the performance of the downstream sectors. The downstream Automotive sector experienced growth and the disputes in the Canadian Railways likely added pressure on US market players. However, the weak performance of the downstream construction sector lowered the upward trend of the commodity and hence, resulted in a stable market scenario. However, during the second half of the quarter, the Butyl Rubber market witnessed a steep decline in their trend. The most significant influencer was a marked decrease in demand from the Automotive and Construction sectors. This decline in demand was compounded by elevated inflation rates, which dampened consumer purchasing power and overall market confidence. Additionally, subdued spending on manufactured goods, as households became increasingly cautious with their expenditures, further exacerbated the situation.
In the USA, where the most substantial price changes occurred, the diminishing prices were starkly evident. Seasonality played a role, with typically lower off-season demand contributing to the downward trend. This was further intensified by a 6% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 and a notable -9% difference between the first and second half of Q2. The correlation in price changes mirrored the broader economic indicators, reflecting a cautious market outlook amid rising costs and economic uncertainties.
Moreover, supply-side disruptions, such as potential strikes in the Canadian National Railways and fewer imports, pressured US producers to ramp up production, which, paradoxically, led to oversupply and further price reductions. Consequently, the quarter-ending price of Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 in the USA settled at USD 2050/MT.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region experienced a notable increase in prices, driven primarily by heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly automotive and tire industries. The resurgence in these sectors contributed significantly to the bullish market sentiment, further exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and port congestions across Asia. This quarter witnessed a significant rise in trading activities, as market players sought to capitalize on escalating demand. The introduction of new policies aimed at stimulating the automotive sector also played a pivotal role in propelling market prices. Focusing on China, which saw the most substantial price changes, the market dynamics were particularly intense. The "Implementation Rules for Car Trade-in-Subsidy," a policy introduced in May 2024, aimed at boosting automotive sales, significantly increased demand. Consequently, the Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices soared, reflecting a strong correlation with burgeoning automotive sector activities. Seasonal factors, such as increased demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, further accentuated the price hikes. The quarter also saw a 16% price increase from the previous quarter, underscoring the robust upward trend. A price comparison within the quarter revealed a 2% increase in the second half, highlighting sustained momentum. Despite facing no major plant shutdowns, the market had to navigate through supply chain bottlenecks and rising production costs, driven by higher crude oil prices. The overall pricing environment remained positive, buoyed by consistent demand surges and limited supply. The quarter concluded with Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices at USD 2560/MT Ex-Qingdao in China, cementing the strong upward trajectory observed throughout Q2 2024.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the MEA region experienced a pronounced downturn, driven primarily by a confluence of unfavorable market dynamics. The quarter was marked by a significant oversupply relative to demand, particularly from the downstream sectors such as automotive and construction. This imbalance resulted in heightened inventory levels, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the market was further destabilized by disruptions in the supply chain, notably the temporary shutdown of key production facilities, including the Al-Jubail plant, which exacerbated the supply glut. The economic environment also contributed to the bearish trend, with weakening purchasing power and subdued consumer demand, reflecting broader economic uncertainties. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the market witnessed the most substantial price declines. The overall trends showed a distinct seasonality effect, with the summer months typically experiencing a downturn due to reduced industrial activity and slower construction projects. This seasonality, coupled with the increased supply from regional producers, led to a significant correlation in price changes throughout the quarter. Compared to the previous quarter, prices fell by 5%, reflecting a persistent negative sentiment. Furthermore, a comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter indicated a steeper decline of 3%, underscoring the continuous bearish momentum. By the end of Q2 2024, Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 was priced at USD 2440/MT FOB Jeddah, marking a definitive downturn in the pricing environment. The cumulative factors, including supply surpluses, seasonal demand fluctuations, and operational disruptions, collectively reinforced a negative pricing trend for Butyl Rubber in the MEA region and particularly in Saudi Arabia, indicating a challenging market landscape for stakeholders.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Europe experienced a mixed trend. During April 2024, the market showcased bearish market sentiments due to disruptions in the commodity's supply chain. While the downstream Automotive sector showed strength during this period, the Manufacturing and Construction sectors exhibited weakness. As a result, the demand for Butyl Rubber from downstream sectors was met primarily by existing inventories. However, the accumulation of commodities led to a bearish trend in the Butyl Rubber market. On the other hand, the Butyl Rubber market experienced a slight incline in their trend which was primarily driven by heightened demand from overseas markets and an increase in the production cost of the commodity. Despite this growth, the domestic Russian automotive and construction sectors saw a downturn during the same period. The uptick in the Russian butyl rubber market can be attributed to the rise in exports to China. This surge is further supported by a new policy introduced by the Chinese government aimed at boosting the automotive sector, which in turn spurred demand from the downstream sector. The market activities were initially subdued due to the May Day holidays at the start of the month, leading to a pause in importing activities because of reduced market operations. However, upon the market's reopening, there was a notable increase in exports from Russia to China. Compared to the previous quarter, prices fell by 4%, reflecting a persistent negative sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American Butyl Rubber market in Q1 2024 experienced a positive pricing environment, with prices showing an upward trend. This can be attributed to several significant factors that influenced market prices. Firstly, there was a robust demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors, leading to an increased rate of consumption of existing inventories. This resulted in the need for increased production of Butyl Rubber to meet the rising demand from both domestic and overseas markets. Additionally, the low supply of Butyl Rubber further supported the price increase.
In the USA, the market saw the maximum price changes compared to other countries in the region. The prices of Butyl Rubber in the US market experienced an incline of 5.91% in the quarter. This can be attributed to the strong demand from the downstream sectors and the low supply of the commodity. Despite the challenges faced by the US economy, particularly in the retail sector, the Automotive sector showed sustained strong demand, contributing to the price increase.
Overall, the pricing environment for Butyl Rubber in the North American region was bullish in Q1 2024. The increased demand and low supply led to positive market sentiment, with market participants raising their ex-quotations and offering higher prices. In conclusion, the Butyl Rubber market in the North American region, particularly in the USA, experienced a positive pricing environment in Q1 2024. The strong demand from the downstream sectors and the low supply of the commodity led to an increase in prices.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has seen a bullish trend in Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 pricing across the APAC region, particularly in China, the largest market for Butyl Rubber in the area. Throughout the quarter, prices in China have consistently risen. January 2024 saw a substantial increase in sales of China-made vehicles as compared to the previous year's weaker sales, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). This surge in vehicle production and exports contributed to increased demand for Butyl Rubber, coupled with lower existing inventory levels, leading to price increases. However, February witnessed a notable year-on-year and month-on-month decline in retail sales, primarily due to consumption timing discrepancies caused by the Chinese New Year holiday. Some sales were pulled forward into January, impacting February's sales figures. This situation led to heightened pricing competition post-holiday, resulting in a cautious approach from consumers. In March 2024, Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices continued to rise due to increased demand from the downstream automotive sectors. March proved to be a robust month for China's electric vehicle manufacturers, with many reporting significant sales gains after a slow start to the year due to seasonal holidays. China's overall car exports also surged in March. The overall trend in Butyl Rubber prices has been influenced by factors such as demand from downstream automotive and tire sectors, inventory levels, and production costs. Seasonality and correlation have also played a role in price changes. Compared to the same quarter last year, Butyl Rubber prices have increased due to high demand and limited supply. However, the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 has remained relatively stable.
MEA
The pricing environment for Butyl Rubber in the MEA region for Q1 2024 has been volatile, with significant factors influencing market prices. In Saudi Arabia, the largest market for Butyl Rubber, prices experienced fluctuations throughout the quarter. The overall trend for Butyl Rubber prices in Q1 2024 was negative, with prices declined in February before rebounding in March. This is attributed to various factors, including the shorter month of February and disruptions due to the Chinese New Year celebrations, which led to lower consumption of existing inventory levels. Additionally, the demand from both domestic and overseas markets was lower compared to the previous month. In Saudi Arabia specifically, prices saw a decline in January and February before increasing in March. This can be attributed to increased demand from downstream automotive and tire sectors, as well as constrained supply and increased offers for Butyl Rubber cargoes. Producers had to raise their production rate to meet the rising demand, resulting in higher prices. Overall, the pricing environment for Butyl Rubber in Q1 2024 in the MEA region can be described as volatile, with fluctuations in prices influenced by factors such as demand from downstream sectors, supply levels, and seasonal factors.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Europe saw favorable pricing conditions, characterized by an uptick in prices. This trend can be ascribed to various notable factors that impacted market pricing. Specifically in Russia, prices experienced a decrease in January and February followed by an increase in March. In January and February, the prices of Butyl Rubber showcased a declining pattern as the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War negatively affected the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors. At the same time, higher gas prices and rising interest rates raise the cost of vehicle ownership, potentially triggering a significant drop in vehicle demand. Therefore, due to the lower demand from the downstream sectors, the inventories were accumulated and the prices of Butyl Rubber witnessed a decline in trend. In March, the prices of Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 experienced an increase in their trend due to heightened demand from the downstream Automotive sectors. The existing inventories were insufficient to meet this demand, resulting in price increases for the commodity. Additionally, production rates of the commodity were increased to fulfill the demand and maintain a balance between supply and demand. The available inventories proved inadequate to meet the demand from downstream Automotive enterprises. Consequently, production rates were escalated to attain a balance between supply and demand. Moreover, trade flows from the Russian market to the domestic as well as the overseas markets intensified due to the rising demand from abroad.
