For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Butyl Rubber pricing landscape in North America during Q3 2024 witnessed a significant uptrend, marked by increasing market prices driven by a confluence of factors. The market dynamics showcased bullishness despite the declining production cost of the commodity due to the decrease in the prices of the feedstock, Isobutylene. The heightened costs of the commodity, despite typical downward pressures from falling production expenses, were counterbalanced by robust demand from key industries, notably the automotive sector.
The surge in demand from downstream players led to a tightening supply situation, further propelling prices upwards. In the USA specifically, the market experienced the most substantial price changes, with a notable -3% decrease from the previous quarter. The correlation between increased demand and rising prices was evident throughout the quarter, reflecting a positive pricing environment.
Despite disruptions like the first Atlantic hurricane and cyberattacks affecting operations, the market remained resilient. The quarter concluded with Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices at USD 2150/MT DEL Texas, underscoring the overall bullish trend in pricing.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region remained stable, with prices showing minimal fluctuations. Various factors influenced market prices during this quarter, including consistent demand from downstream sectors, and balanced supply levels. Notable disruptions occurred in the supply chain due to unforeseen events, such as severe weather conditions which briefly impacted market dynamics. However, overall, the market maintained its equilibrium, supported by steady demand from key industries. Singapore, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. Despite this, the market trend remained stable, reflecting a resilient pricing environment. Seasonal factors and correlation patterns played a crucial role in price stability, ensuring that the market maintained a positive sentiment throughout the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 FOB Jurong in Singapore stood at USD 2090/MT, indicating a consistent and stable pricing environment in the APAC region during Q3 2024.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Europe experienced fluctuating pricing trends driven by several key factors. The overall sentiment was influenced by changes in production costs, overseas demand, and feedstock price fluctuations, particularly isobutylene. In July, prices witnessed an upward trend due to higher production costs and strong export demand, particularly from regions like China and India, despite weaker domestic demand. By August, the market sentiment turned bearish as production costs declined and global demand weakened, leading to oversupply and price softening. The improved domestic automotive sector in Europe mitigated some of the negative effects, but the overall market remained under pressure. In September, while local demand remained stable, sluggish global trade flows continued to impact prices negatively. Supply chain disruptions and inventory buildup led to discounted prices, as market players sought to stabilize pricing. Overall, Q3 2024 experienced a combination of bullish and bearish forces, with heightened volatility reflecting global economic conditions and feedstock price shifts.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Butyl Rubber market experienced a mixed trend, driven primarily by several key factors. During the first half of the second quarter, the Butyl Rubber market maintained its stability at a higher end. The stability can be attributed to the performance of the downstream sectors. The downstream Automotive sector experienced growth and the disputes in the Canadian Railways likely added pressure on US market players. However, the weak performance of the downstream construction sector lowered the upward trend of the commodity and hence, resulted in a stable market scenario. However, during the second half of the quarter, the Butyl Rubber market witnessed a steep decline in their trend. The most significant influencer was a marked decrease in demand from the Automotive and Construction sectors. This decline in demand was compounded by elevated inflation rates, which dampened consumer purchasing power and overall market confidence. Additionally, subdued spending on manufactured goods, as households became increasingly cautious with their expenditures, further exacerbated the situation.
In the USA, where the most substantial price changes occurred, the diminishing prices were starkly evident. Seasonality played a role, with typically lower off-season demand contributing to the downward trend. This was further intensified by a 6% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024 and a notable -9% difference between the first and second half of Q2. The correlation in price changes mirrored the broader economic indicators, reflecting a cautious market outlook amid rising costs and economic uncertainties.
Moreover, supply-side disruptions, such as potential strikes in the Canadian National Railways and fewer imports, pressured US producers to ramp up production, which, paradoxically, led to oversupply and further price reductions. Consequently, the quarter-ending price of Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 in the USA settled at USD 2050/MT.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the APAC region experienced a notable increase in prices, driven primarily by heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly automotive and tire industries. The resurgence in these sectors contributed significantly to the bullish market sentiment, further exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and port congestions across Asia. This quarter witnessed a significant rise in trading activities, as market players sought to capitalize on escalating demand. The introduction of new policies aimed at stimulating the automotive sector also played a pivotal role in propelling market prices. Focusing on China, which saw the most substantial price changes, the market dynamics were particularly intense. The "Implementation Rules for Car Trade-in-Subsidy," a policy introduced in May 2024, aimed at boosting automotive sales, significantly increased demand. Consequently, the Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices soared, reflecting a strong correlation with burgeoning automotive sector activities. Seasonal factors, such as increased demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, further accentuated the price hikes. The quarter also saw a 16% price increase from the previous quarter, underscoring the robust upward trend. A price comparison within the quarter revealed a 2% increase in the second half, highlighting sustained momentum. Despite facing no major plant shutdowns, the market had to navigate through supply chain bottlenecks and rising production costs, driven by higher crude oil prices. The overall pricing environment remained positive, buoyed by consistent demand surges and limited supply. The quarter concluded with Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices at USD 2560/MT Ex-Qingdao in China, cementing the strong upward trajectory observed throughout Q2 2024.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in the MEA region experienced a pronounced downturn, driven primarily by a confluence of unfavorable market dynamics. The quarter was marked by a significant oversupply relative to demand, particularly from the downstream sectors such as automotive and construction. This imbalance resulted in heightened inventory levels, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the market was further destabilized by disruptions in the supply chain, notably the temporary shutdown of key production facilities, including the Al-Jubail plant, which exacerbated the supply glut. The economic environment also contributed to the bearish trend, with weakening purchasing power and subdued consumer demand, reflecting broader economic uncertainties. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the market witnessed the most substantial price declines. The overall trends showed a distinct seasonality effect, with the summer months typically experiencing a downturn due to reduced industrial activity and slower construction projects. This seasonality, coupled with the increased supply from regional producers, led to a significant correlation in price changes throughout the quarter. Compared to the previous quarter, prices fell by 5%, reflecting a persistent negative sentiment. Furthermore, a comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter indicated a steeper decline of 3%, underscoring the continuous bearish momentum. By the end of Q2 2024, Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 was priced at USD 2440/MT FOB Jeddah, marking a definitive downturn in the pricing environment. The cumulative factors, including supply surpluses, seasonal demand fluctuations, and operational disruptions, collectively reinforced a negative pricing trend for Butyl Rubber in the MEA region and particularly in Saudi Arabia, indicating a challenging market landscape for stakeholders.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Europe experienced a mixed trend. During April 2024, the market showcased bearish market sentiments due to disruptions in the commodity's supply chain. While the downstream Automotive sector showed strength during this period, the Manufacturing and Construction sectors exhibited weakness. As a result, the demand for Butyl Rubber from downstream sectors was met primarily by existing inventories. However, the accumulation of commodities led to a bearish trend in the Butyl Rubber market. On the other hand, the Butyl Rubber market experienced a slight incline in their trend which was primarily driven by heightened demand from overseas markets and an increase in the production cost of the commodity. Despite this growth, the domestic Russian automotive and construction sectors saw a downturn during the same period. The uptick in the Russian butyl rubber market can be attributed to the rise in exports to China. This surge is further supported by a new policy introduced by the Chinese government aimed at boosting the automotive sector, which in turn spurred demand from the downstream sector. The market activities were initially subdued due to the May Day holidays at the start of the month, leading to a pause in importing activities because of reduced market operations. However, upon the market's reopening, there was a notable increase in exports from Russia to China. Compared to the previous quarter, prices fell by 4%, reflecting a persistent negative sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American Butyl Rubber market in Q1 2024 experienced a positive pricing environment, with prices showing an upward trend. This can be attributed to several significant factors that influenced market prices. Firstly, there was a robust demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors, leading to an increased rate of consumption of existing inventories. This resulted in the need for increased production of Butyl Rubber to meet the rising demand from both domestic and overseas markets. Additionally, the low supply of Butyl Rubber further supported the price increase.
In the USA, the market saw the maximum price changes compared to other countries in the region. The prices of Butyl Rubber in the US market experienced an incline of 5.91% in the quarter. This can be attributed to the strong demand from the downstream sectors and the low supply of the commodity. Despite the challenges faced by the US economy, particularly in the retail sector, the Automotive sector showed sustained strong demand, contributing to the price increase.
Overall, the pricing environment for Butyl Rubber in the North American region was bullish in Q1 2024. The increased demand and low supply led to positive market sentiment, with market participants raising their ex-quotations and offering higher prices. In conclusion, the Butyl Rubber market in the North American region, particularly in the USA, experienced a positive pricing environment in Q1 2024. The strong demand from the downstream sectors and the low supply of the commodity led to an increase in prices.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has seen a bullish trend in Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 pricing across the APAC region, particularly in China, the largest market for Butyl Rubber in the area. Throughout the quarter, prices in China have consistently risen. January 2024 saw a substantial increase in sales of China-made vehicles as compared to the previous year's weaker sales, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). This surge in vehicle production and exports contributed to increased demand for Butyl Rubber, coupled with lower existing inventory levels, leading to price increases. However, February witnessed a notable year-on-year and month-on-month decline in retail sales, primarily due to consumption timing discrepancies caused by the Chinese New Year holiday. Some sales were pulled forward into January, impacting February's sales figures. This situation led to heightened pricing competition post-holiday, resulting in a cautious approach from consumers. In March 2024, Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 prices continued to rise due to increased demand from the downstream automotive sectors. March proved to be a robust month for China's electric vehicle manufacturers, with many reporting significant sales gains after a slow start to the year due to seasonal holidays. China's overall car exports also surged in March. The overall trend in Butyl Rubber prices has been influenced by factors such as demand from downstream automotive and tire sectors, inventory levels, and production costs. Seasonality and correlation have also played a role in price changes. Compared to the same quarter last year, Butyl Rubber prices have increased due to high demand and limited supply. However, the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 has remained relatively stable.
MEA
The pricing environment for Butyl Rubber in the MEA region for Q1 2024 has been volatile, with significant factors influencing market prices. In Saudi Arabia, the largest market for Butyl Rubber, prices experienced fluctuations throughout the quarter. The overall trend for Butyl Rubber prices in Q1 2024 was negative, with prices declined in February before rebounding in March. This is attributed to various factors, including the shorter month of February and disruptions due to the Chinese New Year celebrations, which led to lower consumption of existing inventory levels. Additionally, the demand from both domestic and overseas markets was lower compared to the previous month. In Saudi Arabia specifically, prices saw a decline in January and February before increasing in March. This can be attributed to increased demand from downstream automotive and tire sectors, as well as constrained supply and increased offers for Butyl Rubber cargoes. Producers had to raise their production rate to meet the rising demand, resulting in higher prices. Overall, the pricing environment for Butyl Rubber in Q1 2024 in the MEA region can be described as volatile, with fluctuations in prices influenced by factors such as demand from downstream sectors, supply levels, and seasonal factors.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the Butyl Rubber market in Europe saw favorable pricing conditions, characterized by an uptick in prices. This trend can be ascribed to various notable factors that impacted market pricing. Specifically in Russia, prices experienced a decrease in January and February followed by an increase in March. In January and February, the prices of Butyl Rubber showcased a declining pattern as the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War negatively affected the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors. At the same time, higher gas prices and rising interest rates raise the cost of vehicle ownership, potentially triggering a significant drop in vehicle demand. Therefore, due to the lower demand from the downstream sectors, the inventories were accumulated and the prices of Butyl Rubber witnessed a decline in trend. In March, the prices of Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 experienced an increase in their trend due to heightened demand from the downstream Automotive sectors. The existing inventories were insufficient to meet this demand, resulting in price increases for the commodity. Additionally, production rates of the commodity were increased to fulfill the demand and maintain a balance between supply and demand. The available inventories proved inadequate to meet the demand from downstream Automotive enterprises. Consequently, production rates were escalated to attain a balance between supply and demand. Moreover, trade flows from the Russian market to the domestic as well as the overseas markets intensified due to the rising demand from abroad.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The fourth quarter of 2023 was a challenging period for Butyl Rubber in the North American region. The market faced several factors that influenced prices and demand. Firstly, the US automotive sector experienced a decline in sales due to a strike by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union against major automakers. This strike disrupted the supply chain and led to concerns about potential disruptions in the production of vehicles, impacting the demand for Butyl Rubber.
Secondly, the European construction industry also witnessed a slowdown, resulting in a decrease in import orders for Butyl Rubber from the US. This decline in demand further affected the market dynamics. Lastly, the global crude oil prices continued to rise due to production cuts implemented by OPEC+ countries, leading to higher production costs for Butyl Rubber. These increased costs contributed to the overall increase in prices for the quarter. No plant shutdowns were reported during this period. In the USA, the price of Butyl Rubber at the end of the fourth quarter was USD 2050/MT FOB Texas. This represented a significant price increase of 8.93% compared to the previous quarter.
Overall, the fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by challenges in the automotive and construction sectors, leading to an incline in demand for Butyl Rubber in the North American region. The impact of the UAW strike and the slowdown in the European construction industry, along with rising crude oil prices, were the primary factors influencing the market and rising prices during Q4 of 2023.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2023 for Butyl Rubber in the APAC region was characterized by several key factors that influenced the market and prices. Firstly, there was a low supply of Butyl Rubber, however, the demand for Butyl Rubber was high. The automotive sector showed some growth, therefore overall consumer sentiment in the region remained strong. As a result, the market situation was bullish, and prices experienced a slight increase of 3.12% compared to the previous quarter. However, in Singapore, the prices of Butyl Rubber experienced significant changes, and the demand for Butyl Rubber remained weak in the domestic market, despite the ongoing growth in the automotive sector. However, the lackluster performance of the construction industry contributed to the overall weak demand. There were no reported plant shutdowns during this quarter. The current quarter's price of Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 FOB-Jurong in Singapore stands at USD 2120/MT, marking a slight decrease of -2.18% compared to the previous quarter.
MEA
The fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by various factors that impacted the pricing of Butyl Rubber in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Firstly, the global automotive industry showcased recovering market sentiments, driving the demand for Butyl Rubber. This was particularly evident in countries like Saudi Arabia, where the demand surged. Secondly, the prices of Butyl Rubber were influenced by the fluctuating crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices during this quarter resulted in higher production costs for Butyl Rubber, ultimately leading to an uptick in its market value. Lastly, the availability of Butyl Rubber remained relatively steady in the MEA region, with minimal issues reported in terms of supply and port congestion. In Saudi Arabia, which experienced the most significant changes in Butyl Rubber prices, the cost of Butyl Rubber increased during the quarter due to the substantial rise in crude oil prices. The anticipation of reduced supply and the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary production cuts contributed to the surge in crude oil prices. As a result, the production costs of Butyl Rubber increased, leading to higher market prices in Saudi Arabia. Overall, the MEA region witnessed a bullish market situation for Butyl Rubber in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by strong demand from the automotive sector and the impact of crude oil prices. The latest price of Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 Ex- Jeddah in Saudi Arabia for the current quarter is USD 60/MT.
Europe
During the Q4 of 2023, the prices of Butyl Rubber showcased an incline throughout the quarter. In October, the price of Butyl Rubber in the Russian market saw a significant Incline. There was a positive development in October as the demand for used cars in Europe started to recover, following a period of month-on-month declines. Furthermore, the European automotive industry also showcased improvement during this month. Hence, amidst increased inquiry from the European market, the price of Butyl Rubber surged in Russia. In November 2023, the selling rate of passenger vehicles in Western Europe experienced a slight increase. Compared to the same period last year, the region saw a rise of 5.3% y-o-y in vehicle sales, marking a nearly 16% increase year-to-date from November 2022. Consequently, there was sustained demand for Butyl Rubber in the market. Hence, the price of Butyl Rubber surged in the Russian market on the back of increased inquiries from the European market. Furthermore, in December 2023, due to the escalation in the tension between Ukraine and Russia, a disturbance in the supply and demand equilibrium occurred which led to the increased prices of the commodity. Furthermore, the an increase in the demand for Butyl Rubber from the downstream automotive sector and insufficient inventory levels. Therefore, the buyers increased their purchasing activities to meet the rising demand from the downstream sector.
In conclusion, during the fourth quarter of 2023, the prices showcased a bullish market situation for Butyl Rubber. In comparison to the previous quarter, the prices of Butyl Rubber showcased an increase of 2.17% and at the end of the quarter, the prices of Butyl Rubber MV 32-51 reached USD 1800/MT (FOB-Novorossiysk).
