For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, the Base Oil Price Index fell by 1.29% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting subdued domestic demand.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1578.33/MT, reflecting settlements mix.
• Base Oil Spot Price softened amid weak exports, year-end destocking, and availability from resumed units.
• Base Oil Price Forecast anticipates modest oscillations driven by seasonal restocking and feedstock price dynamics.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased as crude weakened, reducing refinery feedstock related cost pressures.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook subdued with automotive seasonality, longer drain intervals, and cautious industrial purchasing.
• Price Index readings showed inventory accumulation while export weakness amplified downward pressure on domestic offers.
• Operational turnarounds briefly tightened certain grades, yet resumed units and normal loadings restored market equilibrium.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in December 2025 in North America?
• Ample supply from resumed plants and operating rates increased availability, outweighing softer seasonal demand pressures.
• Declining crude reduced feedstock costs, transmitting downward pricing bias despite inventory builds for weather risk.
• Weak export demand, year-end destocking and trade uncertainty dampened market interest and pressured December pricing.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Base Oil Price Index fell by 5% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply and weak demand.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 856.67/MT, per CFR assessments.
• Base Oil Spot Price remained pressured as Asian cargo inflows outpaced muted domestic buying interest.
• Base Oil Price Forecast shows modest seasonal support but overall weakness persists amid ample inventories.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased as lower crude and VGO costs reduced manufacturing pressure.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains subdued with seasonal slowdown and weaker automotive, industrial lubricant consumption.
• Base Oil Price Index volatility rose amid logistics swings and restocking for Lunar New Year.
• Exports from Singapore and South Korea swelled inventories, pressuring Indonesian CFR offers and capping upside.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Ample regional cargo arrivals overwhelmed Indonesian offtake, creating oversupply and significantly depressing near-term import offers.
• Lower crude and VGO costs reduced production pressure while rising intra-Asia freight offset price declines.
• Buyers delayed purchases holding inventories cautious ahead of holidays, weakening spot demand and bearish sentiment.
Europe
• In Germany, the Base Oil Price Index fell by 5.45% quarter-over-quarter, due to import surplus.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 977.33/MT, per shipment totals.
• Base Oil Spot Price weakened as imports pressured markets and Price Index signalled downward momentum.
• Base Oil Price Forecast sees constrained upside while Production Cost Trend eased with softer crude.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains muted, blenders defer purchases, while Price Index reflects oversupply pressure.
• Inventories grew as exporters increased shipments, pressuring offers while freight and port disruption raised costs.
• Export demand softened; European buyers were conservative, Base Oil Price Index continued reflecting downward revisions.
• Major producers ran near capacity despite turnarounds, supporting supply while constraining Base Oil price recovery.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Ample imports from U.S. and Middle East increased supply, pressuring December prices amid weak consumption.
• Lower crude futures trimmed production costs, but higher freight, port congestion reduced downward price relief.
• Downstream subdued lubricant demand, cautious blenders limited restocking, sustaining excess inventories and further downward pressure.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Base Oil Price Index fell by 3.68% quarter-over-quarter from weak demand.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1633.67/MT, from FOB Dammam.
• Base Oil Spot Price softened as ample FOB supply and imports kept offers subdued regionally.
• Base Oil Price Forecast indicates modest January gains as seasonal restocking combats persistent oversupply pressure.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased; lower crude feedstock reduced manufacturing costs and eased pressure.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains weak as year-end destocking and subdued lubricant offtake limit buying.
• Base Oil Price Index showed volatility despite higher freight and rerouting, supported by ample inventory.
• Luberef Yanbu turnaround tightened near-term availability, yet Jeddah loadings and exports maintained regional supply balances.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in December 2025 in MEA?
• Ample regional supply from refinery runs maintained availability, therefore driving December Base Oil prices lower.
• Lower crude feedstock costs reduced manufacturing expenses, enabling sellers to offer more competitive FOB Dammam.
• Red Sea concerns raised freight and rerouting costs, but ample inventories limited upward price pressure.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Base Oil Price Index rose by 2.25% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stable refinery runs.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1755.00/MT, in Gulf assessments.
• Base Oil Spot Price remained range-bound amid steady Gulf Coast runs and muted export buying.
• Base Oil Price Forecast shows modest gains later as restocking expectations offset soft lubricant demand.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased as crude futures softened, offset by higher trucking insurance.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains subdued with lower lubricant orders and muted automotive parts activity.
• Base Oil Price Index stability supported by ample inventories despite constrained spot availability, cautious exports.
• Major Gulf Coast producers ran full rates with no unplanned outages, tempering upward price pressure.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in September 2025 in North America?
• Balanced domestic production and resumed refinery runs reduced supply concerns, keeping prices steady in September.
• Seasonal demand slowdown after Labor Day weakened lubricant orders, suppressing spot buying and pricing momentum.
• Crude oil softness trimmed production costs, while weather risks and logistics delays supported limited upside.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Base Oil Price Index rose by 2.66% quarter-over-quarter, on firmer export demand.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 901.67/MT, per Tanjung Priok.
• Regional assessments showed Base Oil Spot Price narrowing amid cheaper Chinese exports and easing freight pressure.
• Base Oil Price Forecast projects modest range-bound moves as Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased slightly regionally.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains subdued due to monsoon season and weaker automotive sales continuing.
• Balanced inventories and export enquiry kept the Base Oil Price Index stable amid refinery disruptions.
• Lower feedstock crude and turnarounds reduced costs, while some Chinese units ran reduced rates selectively.
• Export enquiry remained muted but intermittent orders from Southeast Asia provided occasional prompt cargo support.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Oversupply from resumed Chinese exports and ample regional inventories pressured domestic demand and spot offtake.
• Declining crude futures reduced production costs, while port congestion and freight variability influenced import parity.
• Seasonal monsoon slowdown and weak automotive consumption caused destocking and reduced buying, keeping bearish sentiment.
Europe
• In Germany, the Base Oil Price Index rose by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting firmer transatlantic flows.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 958.67/MT, indicating stable equilibrium.
• Base Oil Spot Price softened as abundant imports and lower crude futures eased short-term pressure.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased as crude futures retreated, lowering manufacturing margins and costs.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains weak as summer holidays curb automotive and lubricant purchases regionally.
• Base Oil Price Forecast expects range-bound movement as inventories remain comfortable and demand recovers gradually.
• Higher freight and occasional US plant turnarounds tightened supply, supporting the Base Oil Price Index.
• Regional inventories remained adequate, capping volatility while export arbitrage and Rhine logistics influenced cargo movements.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Summer holiday lull sharply reduced lubricant and automotive purchases, leaving demand insufficient to absorb supply.
• Easing crude futures lowered feedstock costs, transmitting downward pressure through spot Base Oil valuations regionally.
• Logistics disruptions and higher freight encouraged precautionary inventory building, offsetting bearish pricing momentum during September.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Base Oil Price Index rose by 1.45% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightened supply.
• The average Base Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 652.33/MT as reported by FOB assessments.
• Base Oil Spot Price remained pressured by competitive cargoes and ample inventories across Yanbu, Jeddah.
• Base Oil Price Forecast suggests modest range-bound movements as seasonal demand offsets occasional supply disruptions.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend improved with lower feedstock crude prices, easing operating cost pressures.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remains subdued amid summer lull, automotive and lubricant offtake constraining purchases.
• Inventory builds and increased freight costs pressured sellers despite routine maintenance refinery run-rates in region.
• Export demand softened with competitive offers from multiple origins, while Luberef and refiners maintained loading.
Why did the price of Base Oil change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Ample cargo availability from Yanbu and Jeddah increased competition, pressuring FOB levels and regional prices.
• Soft downstream demand amid summer lull and subdued automotive sales reduced spot purchasing and volumes.
• Lower feedstock crude prices eased production cost pressures, offsetting higher freight and rerouting logistics expenses.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
Asia-Pacific
• Base Oil Group I SN150 FOB Qingdao remained stable on a quarter-on-quarter basis. However, prices rose to USD 955/MT, Base Oil ll H 500 FOB Qingdao (China) by the end of June.
• The recent price uptick stemmed from Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, which endangered nearly half of China’s crude inflows and boosted CIF costs. A weakening yuan and high freight charges also allowed refiners to uphold higher offers.
• Why did the price of Base Oil change in July 2025 in China?
• Increased geopolitical tension and feedstock cost pressures spurred a mild price rise, although weak downstream demand limited the extent of gains.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend fluctuated. Although feedstock crude prices remained volatile, domestic base oil production ramped up after multiple turnarounds. New capacity from PetroChina’s Fushun plant added bright stock volumes.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook was muted, with buyers holding inventories post-spring and delaying new purchases amid tariff uncertainty. Lubricant demand remained weak across the transformer, marine, and tire segments.
• Domestic procurement showed restrained buying. Despite May's automotive sales rebound (+13% y/y), base oil orders lagged due to conservative inventory strategies and limited lubricant sector optimism.
North America
•Base Oil Group II H600 FOB Texas marginally increased by 1.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. However, settling at USD 1975/MT Base Oil Group II H 600 FOB Texas by early July. Prices held steady despite a prior bullish 12-week trend as supply normalization and weak demand created balanced market conditions.
• Price volatility was minimal during Q2. A temporary uptrend in June (e.g., Group II H100 rose 2.5%) was driven by lower U.S. crude stocks and tighter VGO supply. However, falling feedstock costs post-ceasefire in the Middle East reestablished price stability.
• Why did the price of Base Oil change in July 2025 in the USA?
• Prices remained rangebound due to no production outages, lower crude values, and lackluster lubricant demand despite summer seasonality.
• The Base Oil Production Cost Trend declined as refiners like Motiva, Chevron, and Excel Paralubes resumed operations post-turnaround, while falling crude oil prices reduced manufacturing costs.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook stayed weak. Despite rising U.S. auto sales in May, lubricant and tire-sector consumption lagged due to high inventories, tariff concerns, and lower downstream orders.
• Domestic procurement remained cautious as buyers prioritized depleting existing stocks. Export interest from Mexico and Brazil weakened due to trade disruptions and license issues, capping U.S. base oil market momentum.
Europe
• Base Oil Group II H150 FD Hamburg marginally declined by 1.1% through Q2 2025, settling at USD 1323/MT Base Oil II H 500 FD Hamburg (Germany), by mid-June. Prices held firm despite a prior bearish 12-week trend as ample supply and subdued demand maintained market equilibrium.
• Price movement was limited during Q2. While crude oil cost volatility and low Rhine river levels introduced minor logistical cost pressures, balanced blender inventories and cautious procurement sustained price stability.
• Why did the price of Base Oil change in July 2025 in Germany?
• Prices stayed rangebound as summer holidays approached, with supply normalizing post-US refinery turnarounds and buyers delaying purchases amid tariff uncertainty.
• Base Oil Production Cost Trend eased due to lower feedstock crude prices and the resumption of U.S. base oil exports post-maintenance. Freight rates from the U.S. to Europe also declined slightly, supporting stable landed costs.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remained soft. Automotive and lubricant sectors showed weak performance, with Q2 vehicle sales down y/y. Buyers continued inventory drawdowns while monitoring evolving U.S. tariff risks.
• Domestic procurement in Europe was subdued, with finished lubricant blenders limiting purchases to essential volumes. Tariff uncertainty and inflationary concerns kept base oil buyers cautious across major European markets.
Middle East (Saudi Arabia)
•Base Oil Group-II H150 FOB Dammam marginally increased by 1.2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. However, the overall trend held steady through Q2 2025, settling at USD 1423/MT Base Oil Group-II H 150 FOB Dammam by the end of June. Despite regional geopolitical risks, prices remained rangebound amid stable supply and weak demand.
• Prices trended sideways as Luberef’s Yanbu and Jeddah plants operated at high utilization, and no major supply disruptions were reported. A 1.8% drop in upstream crude oil prices eased production costs, offsetting any freight-related bullish pressure.
• Why did the price of Base Oil change in July 2025 in Saudi Arabia?
• Prices held flat amid balanced fundamentals. Stable production and high inventories capped gains, while limited downstream demand prevented any price recovery.
• The Base Oil Production Cost Trend declined as crude oil prices fell and refineries resumed post-turnaround operations. Improved supply from Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintained regional availability despite freight rate volatility.
• Base Oil Demand Outlook remained subdued. The lubricant and automotive sectors saw slower activity due to the summer lull and Hajj holidays. Buyers remained cautious amid tariff disruptions and weak downstream lubricant sales.
• Domestic procurement in Saudi Arabia stayed conservative as buyers relied on existing stocks. Export interest to the UAE and India softened due to finished lubricant oversupply and export constraints, keeping base oil values stable.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. base oil prices remained relatively stable, supported by a careful balance of supply and demand. At the start of January 2025, domestic supply was generally sufficient due to increased export activity by U.S. producers, but certain grades became tight because of production cutbacks aimed at avoiding an oversupply situation.
However, February 2025 saw a slight uptick in demand, particularly from the lubricants sector, as manufacturers prepared for the spring production season. This, combined with planned plant maintenance and unexpected disruptions at key facilities, tightened supply further. Despite low crude oil costs helping to reduce production expenses, concerns over future supply and tariffs led to a modest market rebound by late February.
March brought additional supply challenges in the base oil market with a force majeure declared by two major producers due to severe weather. Another refinery remained offline for scheduled maintenance, further straining availability during this timeframe. Demand continued to climb, driven by seasonal lubricant needs and rising vehicle sales, though market sentiment was tempered by caution over new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, the base oil prices in Indonesia remained largely stable with a marginal uptick. At the start of January, market activity was subdued as many participants paused operations due to year-end holidays. However, some suppliers began building inventories in anticipation of the Lunar New Year and possible disruptions. These pre-holiday stockpiling efforts helped maintain a balanced market even as certain base oil grades from China faced tightness due to planned plant shutdowns and permanent closures. The Indonesian Pertamina plant in Cilacap was offline for much of February, adding to the supply strain. Despite these challenges, declining feedstock crude oil prices and lower intra-Asia freight costs helped ease upward pressure on prices, allowing the market to remain steady. By March, while actual demand from lubricants and automotive sectors stayed low, tight spot availability and planned maintenance spurred buyers to secure volumes early, creating artificial demand. This cautious yet proactive buying behavior kept the market balanced. Overall, countering forces of limited supply and weak demand helped maintain stability in Indonesia’s base oil market to settle base oil prices at USD 1127/Base Oil II H 500 CFR Tanjung Priok during the concluding week of March 2025.
Europe
The first quarter of 2025 in the European Base Oil prices has been characterized by a declining trend. Quarterly, base oil prices in Germany have declined by 6% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. While crude oil prices were relatively high at the start of the year, the overall market for base oils was weak. Demand was particularly low during the year-end holidays and remained subdued well into the first quarter. This was largely due to limited activity in the automotive and lubricant sectors, as well as broader economic uncertainty across Europe. As February 2025 began, Group I base oils were generally available which declined the price trend. Demand from the downstream lubricant sector remained soft as automotive sector performance was underwhelming, with falling vehicle sales and uncertainty caused by potential tariff hikes. However, by March, the base oil prices maintained their stable outlook. Buyers were cautious, making smaller purchases rather than building up large inventories. Although some supply disruptions were expected in April due to upcoming refinery maintenance, the overall availability was still sufficient in March to meet market needs.
MEA
Throughout the first quarter of 2025, base oil prices in the Middle East remained mostly stable despite facing several regional and global pressures. The market showed resilience even as geopolitical tensions flared across the Middle East, particularly due to disruptions in the Red Sea and ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Yemen, and Iran. These tensions caused supply chain challenges, including increased shipping costs and longer routes, yet base oil deliveries continued steadily to UAE ports like Fujairah, Sharjah, and Dubai. The supply of base oils remained relatively balanced. This consistency in supply, combined with softened crude oil prices in February 2025, kept manufacturing costs in check and helped maintain stable base oil prices. Demand, however, remained subdued through most of the quarter. Orders were slow during the holiday season and stayed low into the early months of the year. Uncertainty around potential tariffs and continued regional instability also made buyers hesitant. The downstream lubricant and automotive sectors, key consumers of base oils, experienced weak performance, contributing to the sluggish demand. By March, demand from the downstream lubricant sector was tempered by cautious buying due to the Ramadan festival which further kept the base oil prices stable in the UAE.
