For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a consistent downward trend in the North American Arsenic Metal market, with the USA recording a notable 4% decline between the first and second half of the quarter. Key market dynamics were shaped by moderate to high supply levels coupled with persistently weak demand.
Supply conditions remained favorable throughout Q3, primarily due to improved logistics. Reduced freight rates from China to both U.S. coasts, enhanced port efficiency in Singapore, and increased Panama Canal capacity contributed to a more efficient supply chain. This optimization in transportation infrastructure led to better import conditions, particularly benefiting Chinese imports which constitute a major supply source.
Demand showed significant weakness across key end-user industries. The construction industry faced headwinds, with both single-family and multifamily unit construction showing year-over-year declines. The semiconductor industry, a crucial consumer of arsenic, faced particular challenges amid ongoing vehicle sales decreases. While September showed slight improvement in manufacturing decline rates, persistent new order reductions throughout the quarter continued to impact arsenic metal consumption negatively. As the quarter came to a close, the price for Arsenic Metal in the USA was quoted at USD 1127/MT CFR Houston, mirroring the broader trend of escalating prices across the region.
Europe
Europe's arsenic market in Q3 2024 demonstrated overall weakness, with particular challenges in Germany, one of the region's key industrial markets. The country experienced a notable shift between the first and second half of the quarter, recording a 5% decline in market performance, largely influenced by reduced industrial activity and changing economic conditions. In Germany, Supply remained consistent through Asian imports, particularly from Japan and China, supported by favorable freight rates. August showed marginal improvement with a slight price decrease, as normalized freight charges and shipping conditions helped maintain the market balance despite weakening demand. However, September marked a turning point with deteriorating business confidence reaching year-low levels. The manufacturing sector's continued downturn, coupled with declining domestic and foreign orders, significantly impacted arsenic demand. Key industrial sectors, particularly automotive and electronics, experienced sustained weakness throughout the quarter, reflecting broader economic challenges in the German market. The period was characterized by stable supply chains but consistently diminishing demand, creating a challenging environment for market participants. As the quarter came to a close, the price for Arsenic Metal in Germany was quoted at USD 1084/MT CFR Hamburg, mirroring the broader trend of escalating prices across the region.
Asia
The Asian commodity market, particularly for arsenic and related minerals, experienced notable fluctuations during Q3 2024. Regional dynamics were significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Red Sea and Middle East, which impacted international trade flows and industrial demand patterns.
China's arsenic market demonstrated a clear downward trajectory in Q3, with the second half showing a 2% decline compared to the first half. Despite moderate supply levels supported by abundant pyrite reserves and copper mining activities, the market faced persistent demand challenges. The electric vehicle sector remained a bright spot, with EVs constituting over 50% of new car sales, sustaining semiconductor-related arsenic demand.
However, the manufacturing sector recorded contractions for four consecutive months, evidenced by declining manufacturing figures. This industrial slowdown, coupled with increased factory inventories and weather-related disruptions, created an oversupply situation. The quarter concluded with broader market weakness affecting multiple metals including Arsenic, Tungsten & Graphite. The semiconductor industry, along with the paint and glass manufacturing sectors, experienced reduced activity, primarily due to decreased international orders amid regional geopolitical concerns. As the quarter came to a close, the price for Arsenic Metal in China was quoted at USD 891/MT FOB Shanghai, mirroring the broader trend of escalating prices across the region.
