For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Arsenic Metal market in North America experienced a significant downward trend, with prices declining by 6% compared to the previous quarter. This decline was driven by weak demand across key downstream sectors, particularly in the electronics and semiconductor industries, which are primary consumers of arsenic metal. The semiconductor sector faced considerable challenges due to geopolitical tensions and stricter export controls between the U.S. and China, reducing procurement activities and leading to excess supply.
In addition, the ongoing economic uncertainty and shrinking manufacturing output in the U.S. further weakened demand, with businesses delaying production projects and scaling back procurement. The U.S. supply chain remained steady, supported by imports from China, although tightening controls on critical minerals in China impacted global supply dynamics. This, combined with extended delivery times due to hurricane-related disruptions, contributed to higher transportation costs. However, the overcapacity in arsenic metal production, particularly from major producers like Linxi Jinyilai Arsenic in China, created a market imbalance, leading to a build-up in inventories and a drop in prices.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Arsenic Metal (99%) CFR Houston stood at USD 1,112/MT, reflecting the subdued demand environment and surplus in the market.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Arsenic Metal market in Europe experienced a declining trend, with prices falling by 7% from the previous quarter. In Germany, supply conditions tightened due to disruptions in China, which remains a key source for Arsenic Metal. AT the start of the quarter, reduced availability from China, particularly during their festival season, resulted in a slight price increase. However, as the quarter progressed, supply levels from China normalized, and by December, global supply chains, including imports to Germany, showed slight improvements. Demand for Arsenic Metal in Germany weakened significantly due to declines in key downstream sectors. The semiconductor industry, a major consumer of Arsenic, faced reduced demand as global chip production slowed and major projects like Intel’s and Wolfspeed’s factories were delayed. Additionally, the electric vehicle sector, another critical driver of Arsenic consumption, experienced a sharp contraction, with battery-electric vehicle registrations in Germany falling by 22% in November alone. These factors led to subdued demand, further impacting pricing. By the end of the quarter, the price of Arsenic Metal (99%) CFR Hamburg stood at USD 1065/MT, reflecting the ongoing challenges in supply stability and weakening downstream demand across Europe.
APAC
The Arsenic metal market in the APAC region experienced a declining trend, with prices dropping by 2% in Q4 compared to the previous quarter. In China, the supply side saw a mix of stability and strategic adjustments. Major producers like Linxi Jinyilai Arsenic resumed operations after maintenance, while Luoning Zhongtian Materials reentered production with high-purity arsenic, signaling some recovery in supply. However, the export market faced moderate price adjustments due to cautious international buying and ongoing competition among producers. Demand remained steady from the electronics sector, particularly in the smartphone industry, driven by Singles' Day promotions and AI integration. The semiconductor sector also showed resilience despite U.S. trade restrictions, but international demand weakened. Domestic consumption supported stability, while exports to new energy vehicles and independent brands declined sharply. In December, China’s strategic export controls over critical minerals highlighted its influence over global supply chains. However, amid these challenges, arsenic prices continued to drop due to reduced demand from key sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics. By the end of the quarter, the price of Arsenic Metal (99%) FOB Shanghai stood at USD 875/MT, reflecting a cautious market outlook.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a consistent downward trend in the North American Arsenic Metal market, with the USA recording a notable 4% decline between the first and second half of the quarter. Key market dynamics were shaped by moderate to high supply levels coupled with persistently weak demand.
Supply conditions remained favorable throughout Q3, primarily due to improved logistics. Reduced freight rates from China to both U.S. coasts, enhanced port efficiency in Singapore, and increased Panama Canal capacity contributed to a more efficient supply chain. This optimization in transportation infrastructure led to better import conditions, particularly benefiting Chinese imports which constitute a major supply source.
Demand showed significant weakness across key end-user industries. The construction industry faced headwinds, with both single-family and multifamily unit construction showing year-over-year declines. The semiconductor industry, a crucial consumer of arsenic, faced particular challenges amid ongoing vehicle sales decreases. While September showed slight improvement in manufacturing decline rates, persistent new order reductions throughout the quarter continued to impact arsenic metal consumption negatively. As the quarter came to a close, the price for Arsenic Metal in the USA was quoted at USD 1127/MT CFR Houston, mirroring the broader trend of escalating prices across the region.
Europe
Europe's arsenic market in Q3 2024 demonstrated overall weakness, with particular challenges in Germany, one of the region's key industrial markets. The country experienced a notable shift between the first and second half of the quarter, recording a 5% decline in market performance, largely influenced by reduced industrial activity and changing economic conditions. In Germany, Supply remained consistent through Asian imports, particularly from Japan and China, supported by favorable freight rates. August showed marginal improvement with a slight price decrease, as normalized freight charges and shipping conditions helped maintain the market balance despite weakening demand. However, September marked a turning point with deteriorating business confidence reaching year-low levels. The manufacturing sector's continued downturn, coupled with declining domestic and foreign orders, significantly impacted arsenic demand. Key industrial sectors, particularly automotive and electronics, experienced sustained weakness throughout the quarter, reflecting broader economic challenges in the German market. The period was characterized by stable supply chains but consistently diminishing demand, creating a challenging environment for market participants. As the quarter came to a close, the price for Arsenic Metal in Germany was quoted at USD 1084/MT CFR Hamburg, mirroring the broader trend of escalating prices across the region.
Asia
The Asian commodity market, particularly for arsenic and related minerals, experienced notable fluctuations during Q3 2024. Regional dynamics were significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Red Sea and Middle East, which impacted international trade flows and industrial demand patterns.
China's arsenic market demonstrated a clear downward trajectory in Q3, with the second half showing a 2% decline compared to the first half. Despite moderate supply levels supported by abundant pyrite reserves and copper mining activities, the market faced persistent demand challenges. The electric vehicle sector remained a bright spot, with EVs constituting over 50% of new car sales, sustaining semiconductor-related arsenic demand.
However, the manufacturing sector recorded contractions for four consecutive months, evidenced by declining manufacturing figures. This industrial slowdown, coupled with increased factory inventories and weather-related disruptions, created an oversupply situation. The quarter concluded with broader market weakness affecting multiple metals including Arsenic, Tungsten & Graphite. The semiconductor industry, along with the paint and glass manufacturing sectors, experienced reduced activity, primarily due to decreased international orders amid regional geopolitical concerns. As the quarter came to a close, the price for Arsenic Metal in China was quoted at USD 891/MT FOB Shanghai, mirroring the broader trend of escalating prices across the region.
