For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the final quarter of 2024, North American Ammonium Sulphate prices displayed significant volatility. Prices dropped sharply during the first two months of the quarter, reaching USD 381/MT by November. This decline was driven by steady production levels in the U.S., leading to an oversupply of Ammonium Sulphate. Demand from the agricultural sector remained weak, as many farmers delayed their purchases, anticipating further price drops despite the harvest season.
In addition, to this, labor negotiations with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) created uncertainties at U.S. ports, causing shippers to avoid some major ports of USA due to the risk of disruptions. This further strained the supply chain and added to the market volatility.
However, by December 2024, prices saw a slight 3% increase. This rise was attributed to higher Ammonia prices, increased production rates, and a surge in domestic demand. Despite this recovery, the market remains volatile, with ongoing supply chain challenges and labor uncertainties continuing to impact Ammonium Sulphate pricing dynamics.
Asia - Pacific
In Q4 2024, the price of Ammonium Sulphate experienced a substantial increase in the Asian market, with China and South Korea being the most significantly impacted regions. The surge in prices was primarily driven by strong international demand, particularly from India, which exerted pressure on supply levels. In China, logistical challenges, including severe port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, heavy rainfall, and rising freight costs, intensified the price hike. Vessel bunching and extended waiting times further disrupted supply chains, aggravating market tightness. Compounding the situation, adverse weather conditions, such as typhoons in China and flooding in South Korea, led to production disruptions across the southern Asia-Pacific region. Several manufacturing plants were forced to declare force majeure due to excessive rainfall, resulting in a reduction in production output and a significant shortage of Ammonium Sulphate. The combination of these supply constraints, continued international demand, and moderate domestic consumption created a pronounced supply-demand imbalance, sustaining the upward trend in Ammonium Sulphate prices throughout the region.
Europe
European Ammonium Sulphate prices have experienced a decline due to weak demand from key sectors such as agriculture, compounded by oversupply conditions and logistical disruptions. Despite rising Ammonia feedstock costs and supply constraints, including the shutdown of a Norwegian gas platform, production levels have been curtailed. However, ample inventories continue to exert downward pressure on prices. In the UK, a notable price surge occurred in December 2024, primarily driven by supply chain disruptions and delays in exports from significant European suppliers. Despite this, buyer interest remained inconsistent, with fluctuating weather conditions playing a role in shaping demand patterns. In both Europe and the UK, demand has remained weak, with the agricultural sector showing cautious purchasing behavior. This is further exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding the upcoming winter planting season and ongoing logistical issues, such as port congestion. These dynamics highlight a market under strain, where supply is outpacing demand, and economic factors like high input costs and unpredictable weather continue to influence future price trends.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
During the third quarter of 2024, the price of Ammonium Sulphate in North America exhibited an overall downward trajectory. This price decline can be attributed to several factors, including diminished demand from the downstream fertilizer sector amid inadequate weather conditions across the country. With the peak planting season having passed, immediate demand for fertilizers decreased during the initial months of the quarter.
While there were expectations that consumers might begin purchasing in preparation for the upcoming planting seasons for wheat, rye, and rice, hurricanes and storms in the region significantly impacted this anticipated demand. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 47% of the corn crop has been harvested, while only 1% of soybeans have been collected in North Carolina, with no available data for South Carolina. This situation underscores the substantial disruption to crop progress in the American region.
By the end of the quarter Q3, the price of Ammonium Sulphate FOB Illinois was reported at USD 406/MT.
Asia
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the prices of Ammonium Sulphate in the Asian region exhibited a mixed trend. Prices increased in both the initial and final months of the quarter, while experiencing a decline in the second month. In the initial month, the price increase was primarily driven by a shortage of Ammonium Sulphate in the domestic market, exacerbated by severe weather conditions that disrupted production. China faced a series of windstorms and typhoons, significantly hindering manufacturing activities. Notably, Typhoon Yagi disrupted operations in September, with further disruptions anticipated as Typhoon Bebinca was forecasted to impact the southern coast of the country. These adverse weather conditions not only affected supply but also created logistical challenges, leading to tightening inventories and exerting upward pressure on Ammonium Sulphate prices. On the demand side, the market remained bearish throughout the quarter, influenced by weak domestic and international demand. By the end of the quarter, the price for Ammonium Sulphate 21% Spot EXW Shijiazhuang in China was reported at USD 135/MT.
Europe
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the European Ammonium Sulphate market experienced a significant uptrend in prices, reflecting various underlying factors. The quarter was marked by a gradual increase in pricing, primarily driven by rising costs of essential feedstock such as Ammonia and Sulphuric Acid, which exerted upward pressure on Ammonium Sulphate prices. A critical aspect of this price increase was the upstream shortage of Natural Gas in the region, exacerbated by ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia. This geopolitical instability has disrupted supply chains and raised concerns about feedstock availability, further impacting production costs for Ammonium Sulphate. Despite currently low agricultural activities, fluctuating demand from the agriculture sector and anticipation of future market trends favoured sustained growth, contributing to the price surge. The overall supply-demand dynamics remained finely balanced, supporting the escalation in prices. Germany, in particular, experienced the most significant price changes in the region, mirroring broader trends observed throughout Europe. Seasonal factors and heightened demand from the downstream fertilizer sector played a crucial role in driving prices upward. As the third quarter concluded, the latest price for Ammonium Sulphate FOB Hamburg in Germany reached USD 255/MT, signalling a positive pricing environment with a consistent upward trajectory.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Ammonium Sulphate market experienced a notable increase in pricing during the first two months of the quarter, driven by several key factors. Strong domestic demand, particularly from the agricultural sector, was fuelled by favorable planting conditions and high seasonal demand for fertilizers.
Concurrently, rising prices of essential feedstocks, such as ammonia and sulfuric acid, significantly increased production costs, contributing to the higher Ammonium Sulphate prices. Logistical challenges and reduced export activities, caused by lower water levels in major shipping routes, further exacerbated supply constraints and intensified the price increase. However, in the final month of the quarter, prices fell by 1.5%. Geomagnetic storms and weather anomalies led to planting suspensions, which, combined with ample supply and cautious purchasing behaviour, helped narrow the demand-supply gap and exert downward pressure on prices.
As the quarter concluded, the Drought Monitor, released on June 20th, reported no areas of drought in southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Despite this, farmers adopted a wait-and-see approach to securing fertilizers, including Ammonium Sulphate, in anticipation of further price declines.
APAC
During the second quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Sulphate market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region witnessed a notable decline of 6.4% in prices during the first month. This decrease was driven by several key factors that influenced market dynamics. One of the primary contributors to the price reduction was the easing of freight charges, which, coupled with an abundant supply of materials, exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, export restrictions imposed by major suppliers further limited market activity, creating an environment where supply outstripped demand. This situation was exacerbated by subdued demand from the downstream fertilizer market, as peak seasonal requirements had already been met, leading to reduced procurement activity. Adverse weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and snowstorms across various regions, negatively impacted agricultural activity, further reducing the need for fertilizers. However, the prices surged by 4.7% and 5.7% respectively in the final two months of the quarter owing to oversupply of Ammonium Sulphate amid stable demand and a lack of new bids or inquiries from the international market, which led to a surplus that exerted significant downward pressure on prices. Focusing on China, where the most pronounced price changes occurred, the market was characterized by a consistent bearish sentiment. Despite the seasonal planting activities, the demand remained subdued, further exacerbating the price decline.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Ammonium Sulphate market experienced a marked decline in pricing, driven by several critical factors. Overall, the quarter was characterized by a bearish sentiment, largely influenced by fluctuating demand and adverse weather conditions that disrupted agricultural activities. The primary driver behind the persisting low demand was the severe weather, which included frequent windstorms and excessive rainfall, leading to waterlogged fields and delayed planting schedules. This, in turn, reduced the immediate necessity for fertilizers, including Ammonium Sulphate. Additionally, the fluctuating costs of essential feedstocks like ammonia and sulfuric acid further complicated the market dynamics, although these factors did not exert as significant an upward pressure on prices due to the overall muted demand. Focusing on Germany, which observed the most substantial price changes, the trend was consistently negative throughout Q2. The country experienced a -36% price change compared to the same quarter last year, underscoring a significant year-over-year decline. Seasonal factors, such as the adverse weather conditions and the subsequent impact on agricultural schedules, played a crucial role in this persistent decline. The latest quarter-ending price of USD 247/MT for Ammonium Sulphate FOB Hamburg encapsulates the overall negative pricing environment, highlighting the sustained bearish sentiment in the German market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Sulphate market experienced optimistic market sentiments throughout the first quarter of 2024. At the onset of the quarter, a modest upswing in the demand for Ammonium Sulphate was observed in both the North American fertilizer markets, attributed to improved weather conditions within the country.
Further, demand from importing South American market also revived amidst ongoing planting season of crops such as Corn, Cotton, and Sorghum after relief from prolonged drought conditions in Rio de Janeiro, brought about by torrential rain, marked a positive development in the region. However, as the month progressed, a reduction in production activities became apparent due to freezing temperatures and snowstorms. Severe winter conditions led to the closure of the U.S. Nitrogen LLC plant in Tennessee and the Yara/BASF JV plant in Texas, raising concerns about broader supply chain impacts.
Additionally, a disruption in the Ammonia gas pipeline at the Bethpage ice rink, resulting from a compressor malfunction, caused a shortage of Ammonia in the region. This shortage of a critical raw material exerted upward cost pressures on downstream derivatives, notably affecting Ammonium Sulphate prices. Overall, the price of Ammonium Sulphate in the North American region experienced an upsurge compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. As of the final quarter, the price for Ammonium Sulphate FOB Illinois in the USA stood at USD 340/MT.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Ammonium Sulphate in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region presented a varied landscape, with South Korea emerging as the market most significantly influenced. Throughout the quarter, South Korea witnessed a notable escalation in prices, attributable to a confluence of factors extending beyond the conventional realms of influence. Central to this pricing surge was the sustained robust demand from the downstream fertilizer sector. Despite economic uncertainties, the fertilizer industry maintained its Intensity, driving continued demand for Ammonium Sulphate. However, this demand was juxtaposed against a backdrop of supply challenges and disruptions in the global supply chain. One pivotal event exacerbating supply shortage was the occurrence of plant shutdowns, notably including the Namhae Chemical Corporation. The facility endured flooding, hampering Ammonia production and consequently disrupting the supply chain for Ammonium Sulphate. The resultant scarcity of vital feedstock exerted upward pressure on production costs, contributing to the overall price surge in the market. Furthermore, the absence of China from the fertilizer export market during this period prompted Asian buyers, including South Korea, to explore alternative sources for Ammonium Sulphate. This shift in procurement strategies further accentuated the upward trajectory of prices. As the quarter drew to a close, the market in South Korea reached a price of USD 155 per metric ton for Ammonium Sulphate 21% Spot- Ex-Daejeon.
Europe
The European Ammonium Sulphate market faced a challenging first quarter in 2024, characterized by a substantial 1.8% decline in prices in Germany. This decline was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Sulphate and muted overall demand. Additionally, market sentiments were dampened by trade uncertainties and unfavourable weather conditions, particularly in Russia. The weather across Europe varied significantly during the quarter, with cold spells in the northern regions, excessive rainfall in central areas, and dryness in the Mediterranean. These weather patterns influenced agricultural activities and fertilizer demand, further contributing to the subdued market conditions. Despite these challenges, the temporary maintenance shutdown of the Novomoskovskiy Azot (Eurochem Group) plant had minimal impact on prices. However, ongoing farmers' protests, fuelled by rising energy prices, played a significant role in reducing farmers' buying enthusiasm. These protests added further pressure on the already subdued demand in the fertilizer sector. In response to the inventory pressures faced by traders, various strategies were employed, including adjustments to fertilizer prices, including ammonia. These efforts aimed to alleviate the impact of declining demand and lower production rates on market dynamics. However, despite these measures, prices continued to decline throughout the quarter.
