For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Chloride market demonstrated notable price trends during Q4 2024, reflecting stability in October and November before experiencing a marginal surge in December. The price remained stagnant initially, despite fluctuating feedstock costs for Ammonia and Natural Gas. Subdued seasonal demand from the fertilizer sector contributed to the lack of price movement, with agricultural activities declining as the planting season faded.
However, demand for industrial applications, particularly in mining and explosives, remained steady, supporting market resilience. On the supply side, logistical challenges such as adverse weather, hurricanes, and low Mississippi River water levels constrained production and imports. Persistent bottlenecks, including a labor strike in Canada, further limited supply availability, though effective inventory management mitigated severe shortages.
By December, slight supply tightness coupled with a modest rise in feedstock prices led to a gradual price increase for Ammonium Chloride. Despite consistent industrial demand, purchasing activity for fertilizers remained cautious, with buyers delaying significant commitments in anticipation of more favorable pricing during winter fill and spring prepay periods. Overall, Q4 showcased a balanced interplay of demand and supply, with steady industrial consumption offsetting seasonal agricultural weakness and supply chain constraints.
Asia- Pacific
The Asia-Pacific Ammonium Chloride market showed mixed trends during the review period, shaped by regional supply-demand dynamics, logistical hurdles, and external influences. In Indonesia and China, prices declined despite rising feedstock costs, as stable domestic production and ample inventories ensured market balance. Subdued export demand from key markets, including the Philippines and New Zealand, impacted by adverse weather disrupting agricultural activities, further pressured prices. Further, Logistical challenges in China, including port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, alongside heavy rainfall, caused delays in imports and strained regional supply chains. Vessel bunching and extended waiting times exacerbated supply tightness, influencing market dynamics. Excessive rainfall in southern Asia-Pacific raised concerns over crop damage, particularly for sugarcane, oil palm, and fruit crops, while central regions remained stable for paddy irrigation. Manufacturers across the region maintained consistent production rates, effectively managing rising feedstock costs. However, in the Indian market a slight uptick in price was observed owing to restocking of fertilizer supplies amidst the forthcoming Rabi planting season.
Europe
European Ammonium Chloride prices have declined recently due to subdued demand from key sectors like agriculture, compounded by oversupply conditions and logistical challenges. Despite rising Ammonia feedstock costs and supply disruptions such as the shutdown of a Norwegian gas platform, production has been curtailed, but ample inventories continue to exert downward price pressure. In the UK, a significant price surge occurred in December 2024, driven by supply chain disruptions and delays in exports from key European suppliers, while buyer interest remained inconsistent due to fluctuating weather conditions. Demand in both Europe and the UK has been weak, with cautious purchasing behavior from the agricultural sector, exacerbated by uncertainties around the upcoming winter planting season and ongoing logistical issues, such as port congestion. These dynamics highlight a market under strain, where supply outpaces demand, and economic factors, including high input costs and weather unpredictability, shape future price trends.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Ammonium Chloride market exhibited fluctuating price trends throughout Q3 2024, though it predominantly remained on the lower end. In the early part of the quarter, prices saw a significant decline, primarily driven by subdued demand from the key downstream fertilizer sector
Despite attempts by traders to stimulate prices in anticipation of heightened demand ahead of the upcoming planting season, these efforts did not fully materialize. The region was severely impacted by adverse weather conditions, including hurricanes, heavy rainfall, and storms, which disrupted agricultural cycles and restrained demand for Ammonium Chloride fertilizers. Although prices experienced a modest recovery in August 2024, this was largely attributed to supply shortages rather than a resurgence in demand. The hurricanes caused significant production disruptions, limiting the availability of Ammonium Chloride in the market. This supply-side constraint provided some upward pressure on prices.
However, by the latter part of the quarter, prices began to stabilize as the market adjusted to the production setbacks, and demand remained relatively weak in the face of ongoing weather-related challenges.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region experienced a significant increase in Ammonium Chloride prices, particularly in Japan, which observed the most pronounced price fluctuations. Several critical factors contributed to this upward trend in market prices. Rising feedstock costs, coupled with supply chain disruptions, played a pivotal role in driving prices higher. Additionally, adverse weather conditions further complicated the market dynamics. Both Japan and China faced particularly volatile conditions, characterized by a surge in demand from the domestic fertilizer sector amid disrupted supply chains. The region was significantly impacted by typhoons, which struck various provinces in China and Japan, bringing torrential rains and strong winds. These extreme weather events resulted in widespread destruction, leading to extensive power outages and substantial disruptions to daily life. The adverse conditions strained transportation infrastructure and power supplies, complicating production processes for key industrial sectors, including Ammonium Chloride manufacturing. Despite these challenges, the quarter concluded with Ammonium Chloride prices reaching USD 102 per metric ton, CFR Tokyo. Ongoing disruptions, such as port congestion and trade uncertainties, have further complicated the pricing landscape, creating additional challenges for stakeholders within the industry.
Europe
During Q3, the European Ammonium Chloride market experienced a significant surge, particularly in Russia, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. This increase in prices was mainly attributed to a shortage of raw materials in the European market. The shortage stemmed from Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where the critical Sudzha gas transit station is located. Disruption at this key transit point created a ripple effect, impacting European gas supplies and further intensifying the regional shortage of upstream Natural Gas and feedstock Ammonia. The severe scarcity of this essential raw material directly affected Ammonium Chloride production, resulting in reduced output levels and contributing to the rise in Ammonium Chloride prices. Demand for Ammonium Chloride remained moderate, driven by domestic requirements and orders from European importers. However, this demand was largely concentrated among smaller buyers within the region, reflecting a cautious market outlook. Additionally, the market faced further challenges due to fluctuating weather conditions, which impacted demand from the major downstream fertilizer sector. These unpredictable weather patterns made it difficult for farmers to forecast their fertilizer needs, creating a more volatile demand environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Ammonium Chloride market witnessed a notable decline in prices, driven by a combination of significant factors. A key element influencing this downward trend was the subdued demand from major downstream fertilizer markets. This reduction in demand was primarily attributable to climate-related challenges and extreme weather conditions, which disrupted regular planting activities and reduced agricultural productivity. The decline in international inquiries, especially from major importers, further exacerbated the market downturn.
Concurrently, the price of a critical feedstock, Ammonia, decreased during this period. This decline led to reduced production rates for Ammonium Chloride, adding additional downward pressure on prices. The overall trend in the market remained negative, with seasonal factors playing a substantial role in dampening demand. Compounding the situation were geomagnetic storms and weather anomalies, which led to planting suspensions and further disrupted agricultural activities.
This, combined with an ample supply of Ammonium Chloride and cautious purchasing behaviour by buyers, narrowed the demand-supply gap. As a result, these dynamics collectively reinforced the downward pressure on Ammonium Chloride prices throughout the quarter.
APAC
During the first month of Q2 2024, the Asian Ammonium Chloride market experienced a notable price dip. This initial decrease in prices led to a reduction in demand for fertilizers, including Ammonium Chloride, across the region. However, this downward trend was short-lived, as prices surged significantly in the subsequent months of the quarter. Several factors contributed to this price increase. Logistical challenges, notably severe port congestion and a shortage of container ships, caused substantial delays in shipments from key exporting countries. These issues created a tightening of supply, further straining the availability of Ammonium Chloride. Concurrently, adverse weather conditions adversely affected agricultural productivity, prompting farmers to increase their fertilizer investments to mitigate the impact of poor weather on crop yields. The combination of these logistical disruptions and heightened agricultural demand created a conducive environment for price inflation. By the end of the quarter, the market price for Ammonium Chloride had risen to USD 103 per metric ton CFR Tokyo, reflecting the persistent upward momentum and highlighting the market's adjustment to the supply-demand dynamics.
Europe
During Q2 2024, the European Ammonium Chloride market experienced a marked downturn in prices, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing valuations across the region. Unfavourable weather conditions, including harsh windstorms and floods, significantly dampened agricultural demand, particularly in the fertilizer sector. This decline in demand was compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Chloride, driven by ample inventories and smooth cargo inflows despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants reported a notable decline in fertilizer sales across Europe, a major factor driving this stagnancy. The adverse weather conditions disrupted agricultural activities, further reducing the need for fertilizers. Consequently, the Ammonium Chloride market faced substantial challenges, resulting in decreased prices and an overall bearish market sentiment throughout the quarter. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties contributed to market instability, as concerns about supply chain disruptions and potential trade barriers remained prevalent. Despite these uncertainties, cargo inflows remained smooth, exacerbating the oversupply situation. The industrial sector, which is a significant consumer of Ammonium Chloride for various applications, also showed reduced activity. This reduction in industrial demand, along with the subdued agricultural sector, led to a decreased overall uptake from downstream sectors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Ammonium Chloride market in the North American region witnessed a notable decline, primarily attributed to the diminishing prices of crucial raw materials such as Ammonia and Natural Gas. This trend was further exacerbated by the milder winter weather conditions, which resulted in reduced production rates, consequently leading to a surplus of Ammonium Chloride within the market.
Despite the ongoing corn and soybean planting seasons in Brazil, demand from this significant importing nation remained subdued due to the traditional festivities associated with Carnival, resulting in a temporary deceleration of agricultural activities. Conversely, a modest increase in demand was noted from the importing Asian market however it did not have any significant effect on Ammonium Chloride price. In addition to it the supply of Ammonium Chloride in the region was characterized as moderate to high, with substantial stocks readily available to cater to the requirements of end-users, persistent disruptions in the supply chain were evident due to delayed shipments to the Asian market.
Meanwhile, domestic demand for Ammonium Chloride remained subdued as the peak planting season concluded, compounded by adverse weather conditions impeding crop cultivation. Notably, no instances of plant shutdowns were reported during this period. Overall, the price of Ammonium Chloride in the North American region experienced a decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
APAC
In the APAC region, the Ammonium Chloride market in Q1 2024 has experienced a downward trend in prices. The decline in prices can be attributed to several significant factors. Firstly, there has been a surplus availability of Ammonium Chloride in the market, leading to a narrowed gap between demand and supply. This surplus availability has been influenced by increased production rates and ample stocks of the product. Additionally, there has been a decrease in demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, as the peak planting season has passed. This decrease in demand has further contributed to the downward pressure on prices. China, in particular, has seen the maximum price changes in the Ammonium Chloride market. The prices in China have declined significantly, driven by diminished demand from both the domestic and international markets. The Chinese government's restrictions on fertilizer exports, as well as disruptions in the Red Sea trade due to attacks by Yemeni rebels, have further impacted the market dynamics in China. These factors have led to a scarcity of imported Ammonium Chloride in the Chinese market, contributing to the decline in prices. Overall, the pricing environment for Ammonium Chloride in Q1 2024 has been negative, with prices experiencing a downward trend. This trend is in line with the seasonal fluctuations in demand, as well as the impact of global market challenges and trade disruptions. The latest quarter-ending price for Ammonium Chloride in China is recorded at USD 77/MT, Ex-Shanghai.
Europe
The European Ammonium Chloride market faced a challenging first quarter in 2024. This decline was primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream fertilizer sector, compounded by an oversupply of Ammonium Chloride and muted overall demand. Additionally, market sentiments were dampened by trade uncertainties and unfavourable weather conditions. The weather across Europe varied significantly during the quarter, with cold spells in the northern regions, excessive rainfall in central areas, and dryness in the Mediterranean. These weather patterns influenced agricultural activities and fertilizer demand, further contributing to the subdued market conditions. Despite these challenges, the temporary maintenance shutdown of the Novomoskovskiy Azot (Eurochem Group) plant had minimal impact on prices. However, ongoing farmers' protests, fuelled by rising energy prices, played a significant role in reducing farmers' buying enthusiasm. These protests added further pressure on the already subdued demand in the fertilizer sector. In response to the inventory pressures faced by traders, various strategies were employed, including adjustments to fertilizer prices, including Ammonium Chloride. These efforts aimed to alleviate the impact of declining demand and lower production rates on market dynamics. However, despite these measures, prices continued to decline throughout the quarter.
