For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Aluminium Sheet market in North America witnessed a quarter of increasing prices in Q3 2024. This uptrend was influenced by a combination of supply constraints and resilient demand. Global factors such as high aluminium production levels and a surplus in the market were offset by localized disruptions in production and supply chains.
Weakness in manufacturing activity and lower-than-expected growth in green energy initiatives contributed to subdued demand, but the market remained buoyed by steady consumption from critical sectors. Additionally, the construction sector is gaining momentum, evidenced by rising home builder confidence in September due to lower mortgage rates from Federal Reserve cuts, stimulating construction activity and boosting aluminium demand. Furthermore, the market for sustainable aluminium is growing significantly, reflecting changing consumer preferences and industrial practices, further enhancing the overall demand landscape.
The USA, experiencing the most significant price changes, saw a mix of factors impacting prices, including supply challenges and fluctuating demand. Seasonal trends and market dynamics led to a stable first half followed by a price increase in the second half of the quarter. The quarter concluded with Aluminium Sheet priced at USD 5542/MT CFR New York, reflecting a positive pricing environment characterized by gradual price appreciation amidst a challenging market landscape.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC aluminium sheet market in Q3 2024 demonstrated mixed performance across key markets, with China and Malaysia showing varying trends in demand and pricing dynamics. China maintained stability in its spot market despite raw material fluctuations, with recycled aluminium operating rates holding steady at 53.6%. The market benefited from Rusal's increased production and shipments, though export demands faced headwinds.
China's manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.8%, indicating subdued consumer demand, yet showed promise in construction and real estate sectors following stimulus measures. The reopening of southwestern smelters, as power restrictions eased, contributed to inventory buildup, while rising alumina costs pressured production economics. Malaysia's market remained heavily influenced by China's export patterns. Despite global supply constraints, domestic demand weakened, particularly in the automotive sector, with Proton reporting a 9.1% year-on-year sales decline.
However, positive indicators emerged, including increased employment and easing inflation, suggesting potential recovery. The quarter recorded a modest decrease of 3% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with prices at USD 2983/MT of Aluminium Sheet (3004-1 mm) FOB Tianjin (China), reflecting the overall downward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Aluminium Sheet market in Europe experienced a notable uptrend in prices, with Germany showcasing the most significant price changes. This increase was influenced by several key factors. Firstly, a surge in demand from the aviation sector, particularly driven by large orders from major airlines, played a crucial role in boosting prices.
Additionally, supply constraints in global alumina and bauxite resources heightened production costs, further supporting the price surge. In Germany specifically, the market saw a balanced supply situation, with the commissioning of a new aluminium billet casting line in a neighbouring country contributing to improved regional supply capabilities.
Despite challenges in the manufacturing sector, the overall trend in Europe indicated a positive outlook for Aluminium Sheet prices. The quarter recorded a 3% price increase from the previous quarter, with a notable 7% price difference between the first and second halves of the quarter. Ultimately, the quarter ended with Aluminium Sheet priced at USD 12557/MT FD-Koblenz in Germany, reflecting a bullish pricing environment.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Aluminium Sheet market in the MEA region witnessed a significant decrease in prices, influenced by several key factors. Global challenges such as international sanctions on raw materials, geopolitical tensions, disruptions in nickel production, and shipping crises in the Red Sea all contributed to a complex and challenging supply landscape.
This led to high supply levels and downward pressure on prices. Demand remained low, with sluggish activity in the construction sector and subdued international interest in the region's products. The aftermath of natural disasters and supply chain disruptions further dampened demand, resulting in decreased sales volumes and increased backlogs of work. Within the United Arab Emirates specifically, the market experienced the most significant price changes, with a negative correlation in price trends. Seasonal fluctuations, along with high inventories and weak trading activities, influenced the downward price trajectory.
The quarter saw a 2% decrease from the previous quarter and a 1% decline between the first and second half. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Sheet (Al 1100) at USD 3112/MT CFR Mina Jebel Ali highlighted the overall decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment. No plant shutdowns were observed during the quarter, further contributing to the stable but negative market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Aluminium Sheet market experienced a notable uptrend in prices, driven by a confluence of supply constraints and robust demand. The quarter was marked by significant factors such as raw material shortages, particularly bauxite, and increased shipping costs, both of which exacerbated the pricing pressures. Additionally, economic instability, inflation, and high-interest rates contributed to the overall escalation in aluminium sheet prices. Inventories remained low as demand from downstream sectors like automotive and construction surged, further tightening the supply-demand balance.
Focusing on the USA, the nation witnessed the most pronounced price changes within the region. The overall trend for aluminium sheets remained upward, driven by seasonal demand spikes and consistent purchasing activities across various industries. The correlation in price changes was evident as high demand coupled with limited supply pushed prices up. The price increase from the previous quarter was recorded at 12%, reflecting a significant uplift in market sentiment.
The latest quarter-ending price for aluminium sheets was USD 5555/MT CFR New York. This price reflects a positive pricing environment, supported by ongoing demand and constrained supply. The market's increasing sentiment was further bolstered by disruptions such as Rio Tinto's force majeure declaration on alumina exports, which heightened supply concerns. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 for the North American Aluminium Sheet market was predominantly positive, characterized by strong demand and supply-side challenges.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Aluminium Sheet market in Europe exhibited stable pricing dynamics. This stability was underpinned by a confluence of balanced supply-demand factors, a recovering automotive sector, and moderate but consistent demand from the construction industry. Limited raw material availability and heightened production costs, exacerbated by increased energy and shipping expenses, played a significant role in maintaining this equilibrium. Despite these cost pressures, manufacturers were able to manage their supply chains effectively, avoiding substantial disruptions or plant shutdowns.
Germany, however, experienced the most significant price movements within Europe. The German market saw a 4% increase from the previous quarter in 2024, driven primarily by strong demand in the automotive sector, which benefitted from a notable uptick in new car registrations. Additionally, the manufacturing sector in Germany showed encouraging signs of growth, leading to increased consumption of aluminium sheets. Seasonality also played a role, with stable demand patterns observed throughout the quarter. The overall trend indicated a gradual recovery in industrial activities, which supported stable pricing.
The correlation in price changes across different sectors highlighted a synchronized recovery, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing industries. This stable sentiment was reflected in the quarter-ending price of USD 11850/MT for Aluminium Sheet (2 mm-AW-2017A) FD-Koblenz, Germany. The overall pricing environment in Q2 2024 remained stable, with no significant disruptions or plant shutdowns reported, ensuring a consistent and positive outlook for the aluminium sheet market in Europe.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Aluminium Sheet market in the APAC region has experienced a notable upward trajectory in pricing, driven by a confluence of factors. Supply constraints have played a pivotal role, exacerbated by seasonal disruptions such as the Dragon Boat Festival leading to fewer working days and operational challenges. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, including tariff implications and regulatory changes, have further strained supply chains. Freight costs have surged due to external factors like the Red Sea crisis and increased shipping expenses from the Mediterranean to East Asia, compounding cost pressures. These supply-side issues have been met with rising demand across key sectors, notably automotive, construction, and infrastructure, which have robustly bounced back post-pandemic, fuelling heightened purchasing activities and inflating prices.
South Korea has witnessed the maximum price changes this quarter, underscoring an increasing trend. The manufacturing sector faced significant import pressures, navigating the influx of low-cost goods from neighbouring markets and a weakened yen. Despite these challenges, the domestic market saw a surge in Aluminium Sheet demand, primarily from the construction and automobile sectors, which have shown remarkable resilience. Seasonality factors, including the impact of Lunar New Year holidays, contributed to fluctuating inventory levels and delivery timelines, further influencing the price dynamics. Compared to the previous quarter, there was a substantial 12% increase in Aluminium Sheet prices, reflecting a strong market rebound.
The quarter concluded on a strong note, with Aluminium Alloy Sheet (Al 1100) FOB Busan in South Korea priced at USD 3556/MT, indicating a positive pricing environment throughout Q2 2024. This consistent upward momentum highlights the robust market fundamentals and resilient demand driving the Aluminium Sheet sector in the region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the Aluminium Sheet market in North America experienced mixed trends, with significant factors impacting market prices. The overall pricing environment for Aluminium Sheet slightly decline, with moderate supply and low demand levels. However, the USA market witnessed the maximum price changes during this period.
The market was influenced by various factors, including decreased demand from downstream industries during the winter and holiday seasons, disruptions in trade routes such as the Panama Canal and the Red Sea, and concerns over the supply of feedstock Bauxite and Alumina from Guinea following an explosion at an oil depot. Additionally, adverse weather conditions and snowfall led to reduced demand from the downstream construction sector, causing a slowdown in manufacturing activity across the USA.
In conclusion, the latest quarter-ending price for Aluminium Sheet (1100-H14-0.8 mm) CFR New York in the USA was USD 4951/MT. The pricing environment in North America during Q1 2024 can be described as stable, with challenges from seasonal factors and disruptions in trade routes.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Aluminium Sheet market in the APAC region experienced varying trends and price changes. Overall, the market sentiment was stable, with moderate supply and demand levels.
Several factors influenced the market prices during this quarter. The Lunar New Year holiday in February resulted in reduced production and order volumes, leading to sluggish market activity. Downstream industries, particularly the automotive and infrastructure sectors, faced weakened consumer demand. Weather-related shipment delays also impacted prices. In South Korea, the market saw a slight price increase of 0.7% in Aluminium Sheet. This was driven by reduced supply and increased restocking efforts. The automotive sector showed strong demand, especially in electric vehicles, contributing to the price increase. However, overall market sentiment remained stable. When comparing Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, there was a significant increase in prices. This can be attributed to factors such as higher raw material prices, increased demand from downstream industries, and government policies supporting the sector. In terms of seasonality, the first half of the quarter showed a slight price increase, while the second half remained stable. As of the end of the quarter, the price of Aluminium Alloy Sheet (Al 1100) FOB Busan in South Korea was USD 3262/MT. Overall, the pricing environment for Aluminium Sheet in the APAC region in Q1 2024 was stable, with some price fluctuations driven by supply and demand dynamics, as well as external factors such as raw material prices and government policies.
Europe
The European market for Aluminium Sheet in Q1 2024 experienced a stable pricing environment, with some fluctuations observed in Germany. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. Firstly, the supply of Aluminium Sheet was moderate, with trade activity hindered by disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal routes. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and a major accident in a Guinea-based oil depot, a key exporter of Bauxite and Alumina, raised concerns over supply shortages. These incidents contributed to rising Bauxite prices despite a decline in demand due to adverse weather conditions and the holiday period. In terms of demand, downstream construction industries in Europe showed stable demand, although hindered by the winter weather and holiday periods. Meanwhile, the automotive sector maintained firm demand, driven by the increasing interest in expanding electric and hybrid vehicle manufacturing. Germany experienced slight price fluctuations for Aluminium Sheet. The market sentiment was influenced by trade disruptions in the Panama Canal and Red Sea routes, as well as concerns over the supply of feedstock Bauxite and Alumina. Furthermore, demand from the construction sector decreased due to adverse weather conditions and snowfall. Overall, the pricing environment for Aluminium Sheet in Europe during Q1 2024 can be characterized as stable, with slight fluctuations observed in Germany. The market was influenced by supply disruptions, adverse weather conditions, and holiday periods. The latest quarter-ending price for Aluminium Sheet (2 mm-AW-2017A) FD-Koblenz in Germany was recorded at USD 11399/MT.
MEA
In the first quarter of 2024, the Aluminium Sheet market in the MEA region experienced significant price changes influenced by various factors. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) witnessed the maximum price fluctuations during this period. Overall, the market sentiment for Aluminium Sheets in the MEA region was stable. However, the UAE market showed a bearish trend. The supply of Aluminium Sheets was moderate, with increased manufacturing and production capacities in mills. However, export activities were hampered by heightened freight costs and longer transit times through the Panama Canal, leading to inventory accumulation. Demand for Aluminium Sheets in the UAE was moderate, with industries like Automotive and Infrastructure facing challenges and no new projects. This resulted in reduced downstream demand and impacted local and international trade. The global slowdown in the Aluminium market, influenced by factors like bauxite and alumina, contributed to this decline. However, towards the end of the quarter, prices showed a slight recovery. In conclusion, the pricing environment for Aluminium Sheets in the MEA region, specifically in the UAE, was stable with a slight downward trend during the first quarter of 2024. The market faced challenges due to supply shortages, reduced export activities, and decreased downstream demand. Despite these challenges, the market showed signs of recovery towards the end of the quarter, with prices reaching USD 3119/MT of Aluminium Alloy Sheet (Al 1100) CFR Mina Jebel Ali in the UAE.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American market for Aluminium Sheets in the fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed a mix of trends, indicating overall stability. The US spot market for aluminum sheets saw a decline in prices, in the initial period of Q4, linked to weakened demand from the automotive industry and increased macroeconomic uncertainty. Aluminum prices surged in mid-Q4 due to insufficient stock accumulation during the consumption off-season, with tighter spreads and potential inventory squeezes influencing the uptick in restocking activity.
The Federal Reserve's retention of interest rates signaled a US economic market recovery, prompting substantial orders from local and overseas buyers. In December, the consistent trend in aluminum sheet pricing reflected reduced demand during winter and holidays, exacerbated by disruptions in trade routes, including the Panama Canal and the Red Sea, caused by drought and rebel attacks.
Supply concerns from Guinea, triggered by an oil depot explosion, coupled with adverse weather, led to reduce demand from the construction sector, resulting in a slowdown in US manufacturing activity. The latest price of Aluminium sheets (1100-H14-0.8 mm) DEL New York in the USA for the last quarter is USD 16161/MT.
Asia-Pacific
The fourth quarter of 2023 in the APAC region witnessed a slight decline amidst various factors impacting the Aluminium Sheet market. Initially, In October, aluminum sheet prices showed a positive trend as initially, the prices remained high in China due to favorable domestic policies, low inventories, and market expectations of increased consumption. Despite an influx of imported sheets and the opening of the import window potentially hindering destocking, the overall supply and demand imbalance was not pronounced. As November unfolded, prices declined in the Chinese spot market. The increased production rate of aluminum sheets, driven by a rise in China's aluminum processing industry PMI, led to higher domestic inventories. Overseas demand dropped due to import curtailment efforts by the US and Mexican governments. The Panama Canal disruption and broader economic uncertainty further contributed to a decline in trade and buyer hesitation. In contrast, a surge in aluminum sheet prices occurred later in November due to increased demand, reduced inventory levels, and trade disruptions in the Red Sea. Favorable weather conditions in China, along with a global shift to conventional vehicles post-COP28, stimulated downstream industries, fostering consumer confidence, and encouraging order placements. The ripple effect of these factors supported the overall stable trend for Aluminium sheets in China. The quarter-ending price for the Aluminum Sheet (3004-1 mm) Ex Shanghai (China), was USD 2686/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Aluminium Sheet market in Europe showed a rising trend, amidst several factors that influenced prices. Firstly, In the German spot market, the supply of Aluminium Sheet faced challenges due to lackluster performance amid uncertain economic conditions, resulting in scarce supply rates. European interest rate expectations and non-ferrous metals market fluctuations were considered factors. Hydro Energi secured a long-term power purchase agreement with Alpiq for 1.18 terawatt-hours of energy from 2024 to 2032, supporting Norsk Hydro's plan to expand its electricity supply, emphasizing renewable sources. In November, Aluminium sheets in Germany experienced a price upturn due to low supply and increased demand from auto and construction sectors. Bauxite scarcity, Panama Canal disruptions, and strong downstream industry demand created an optimistic market sentiment. However, in December, the Aluminum Sheet price stabilized as winter and holidays led to weakened demand, compounded by trade disruptions, and decreased construction sector demand amid adverse weather conditions. The supply of feedstock faced challenges from an oil depot blast in Guinea, contributing to manufacturing slowdowns across Germany. The quarter ended with a price of USD 11733/MT for an Aluminium Sheet (2 mm-AW-2017A) FD-Koblenz in Germany.
MEA
The fourth quarter of 2023 was characterized by an optimistic market trend for Aluminium sheets in the Middle East region. In the UAE spot market, the prospect of an initial public offering (IPO) is driving an upswing in metal prices, particularly aluminum, fueled by growing downstream demand. The demand surge for both new and recycled aluminum is attributed to the need for lightweight metal components in various products amid the energy transition. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) plans to invest in an aluminum refinery in Guinea, but challenges like expensive borrowing costs and securing cleaner energy sources are causing delays. In November, the UAE spot market saw a notable increase in aluminum sheet prices due to limited supply and heightened demand from the automotive and construction sectors. The scarcity of essential materials like Bauxite, disruptions in the Panama Canal route, and strong downstream industry demand contributed to the surge. The Overseas Material Recycling Association of India's statement advocating for zero percent duty on metal scrap positively impacted the UAE Aluminum Sheet industry. Significant price surges were observed, attributed to heightened demand, reduced inventory levels, and supply challenges exacerbated by trade disruptions in the Red Sea. Favorable weather conditions in the UAE and a global shift towards conventional vehicles post-COP28 contributed to increased downstream construction and automotive sector demand, with consumer confidence in the stability of the Red Sea situation strengthening order placements. The price of Aluminium Alloy Sheet (Al 1100) CFR Mina Jebel Ali (United Arab Emirates) reached USD 3266/MT at the end of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The Aluminium Sheet market displayed a stable price trend in the USA during Q3 2023. The price initially rose due to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to curb inflation and stimulate demand. The photovoltaic system industry's growth also increased consumption. Alcoa's efforts in energy transition and mining activities in Australia further boosted the market. However, supply remained low due to reduced local production and export bans from Indonesian suppliers. Tesla's increasing electric vehicle sales drove demand, especially in the automotive sector. Bulk orders and new business from Arco Industry contributed to market growth. In August, prices remained static due to lower demand from downstream industries and uncertain economic conditions. Aluminum sheet supply remained firm, and Bauxite imports from Guinea increased. Guinea's mining deals with the West African LNG Group promoted sustainable energy use and production growth. Downstream automotive demand stayed flat as competition from Chinese manufacturers intensified. The renewable energy sector's growth is expected to drive future Aluminium sheet demand, while potential power outages may impact production costs. Buyers adopted a wait-and-watch approach amidst market uncertainty.
Asia-Pacific
In August, the Aluminum Sheet market in South Korea experienced a stable price trend despite several factors influencing the industry. The stagnation in Aluminum Sheet prices in the South Korean market can be attributed to reduced manufacturer offers and decreased purchasing activity. Weak demand and declining willingness to buy from traders and end-users contributed to this trend. Domestic market volumes decreased significantly, confirming the ongoing price stagnation. Additionally, global economic uncertainty led to a decline in feedstock Aluminum prices, while the supply of Aluminum Sheets remained high due to increased imports from India and China. Minimal orders were placed as buyers anticipated further price declines. The US interest rate hike also impacted export demand from downstream industries, such as automobiles, contributing to the declining price trend. Later on, the Aluminum foil prices rose due to increased production, but local demand remained weak. Inventory levels also rose in overseas markets, while sales from companies like Novelis and Hindalco declined in India. Political and local issues, including resistance to bauxite mining and increased bauxite reserves from abroad, impact the South Korean market. On the demand side, the automotive industry remained stable, with expectations of growth due to increased electric vehicle sales. However, supply growth and market uncertainty left both local and foreign buyers cautious.
Europe
In Germany, the Aluminum Sheet market in Q3 displayed a stable price trend. Initially, prices rose due to economic stability and reduced local inventories. Export restrictions from Indonesian suppliers tightened supply, boosting German spot market prices. A contract with an Indian rail giant increased demand for Aluminum sheets from German manufacturers, as parts were needed for production in France, raising exports. Plans to lift the ban on Russian Aluminum imports indicated progress in European supply and demand stabilization. Alcoa's mining permit for an Australian Aluminum Sheet mine also supported market growth. However, supply constraints persisted due to low domestic Aluminum sheet stocks, recognized as vital by the government. In August, Aluminum Sheet prices remained steady, supported by ample Bauxite supply and cautious local orders. Increased Bauxite imports and collaborations in shipbuilding and clean energy sectors boosted demand. Despite economic uncertainties and fluctuating Federal interest rates affecting orders, the automotive and clean energy sectors showed promise, hinting at future Aluminum Sheet demand, leading to increased local inventory levels.
MEA
In the third quarter of 2023, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) witnessed a significant drop in Aluminium Sheet prices amidst rising bauxite supply and the reduction in local consumption rate. The influx of supply from the overseas Asian market led to cautious buyer behavior, with some mills offering discounts to attract customers. A major development impacting the market was the expansion of a Bauxite mine in Guinea, resulting from a partnership between Emirates Global Aluminium, Guinea Aluminium Corporation, and Electricitie de Guinea. This boosted the Bauxite supply in the UAE spot market. Furthermore, dwindling demand from downstream industries, such as automotive and aerospace, intensified the bearish sentiment in the Aluminium sheet market. Buyers refrained from placing large orders in anticipation of further price reductions. Slightly stable demand in the automotive sector, uncertainty persisted due to increased electric car sales and ongoing supply growth. High imports from Guinea's offshore mines also contributed to market dynamics. The future price trajectory of Aluminium sheets in the UAE remains uncertain, with potential increases on the horizon due to expanding electric car sales and evolving supply dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, the Aluminium Sheet prices showed a bullish price trend in the North American market amid the tight supply and increased demand from the downstream automobile industry. In April, the inventory level declined as the production rate decreased in the local Aluminium Sheet manufacturing plants. The feedstock Aluminium price also surged as the consumption from the downstream automotive industry remained on the higher verge in the local and Overseas aluminum industries. As per market players, the downstream automobile sector experienced an uprise as the sales of electric vehicles increased, which led to increased consumption of Aluminium Sheets in the US automotive market. Infrastructural development and the rising dependency on renewable energy concerning lower CO2 emission increased the usage of Aluminium ingot in the US spot market. According to market players, the buyers were placing large orders, and restocking was observed as the US Aluminium Sheet market showed a long-term growth rate. Consequently, the prices of Aluminium Sheet Al1100 for DEL New York (USA) settled at USD 15540/MT in the second quarter ending June 2023.
Asia-pacific
In the second quarter of 2023, South Korean Aluminium Sheet prices showcased a downward momentum. A labor union strike decreased overseas demand and halted production in major downstream industries. In April, the overseas demand declined as the economic condition of countries such as the USA and China was crippling. The downstream automobile industries showed a pessimistic market sentiment that provoked the buyers to halt the placement of large orders as the Aluminium sheet prices were expected to shift further downward. In H2 of the second quarter, the shipping industry had pessimistic market sentiment amid labor shortage along with the lowering of wages hurting the local industries. The Korea Enterprises Federation (KEF) were suggesting the government lower the minimum wages for migrant workers having E7 VISA to uplift the earning of the Korean native workers. Around June, the two major Umbrella Unions, the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) and the Federation of Korean Trade Unions (FKTU), started a nationwide protest against President Yoon-Suk-yeol’s administration to protest the suppression of organized labor by the manufacturing and construction giants in South Korea. The ripple effect caused by this hampered the supply chain and reduced the production rate, resulting in an increase in price at the end of the second quarter. The price for Aluminium sheet Al1100 for FOB Busan (South Korea) got settled at USD 3220/MT in the quarter ending June 2023.
MEA
The price of Aluminium Ingot in the United Arab Emirates market showed a continuous decreasing trend throughout the second quarter of 2023. The decreasing price was supported by the fact that the local inventory level was on a higher edge as the import of Aluminium sheets increased from the overseas Indian market. The supply was already surging as the production rate was high amid the Emirate Global Aluminium, a major Aluminium Sheet manufacturer, spending a billion dirhams in industrial development to expand its production capacity, which led to an increase in local inventory in the UAE spot market. The feedstock aluminum supply also remains on a higher edge from the overseas suppliers from the USA and European market, resulting in declining Alumina prices and plummeting the cost support in producing Aluminium Sheet. The Uncertain Global economic condition was considered a major drawback in declining Aluminium Sheet prices in the local as well as global markets. The demand from the downstream automotive industry declined as the buyers were worried about the safety concern from the imported Aluminium Sheet parts that provoked them to halt in placing large orders in the UAE spot market. The price for Aluminium sheet Al1100 for CFR Mina Jebel Ali (United Arab Emirates) got settled at USD 3154/MT in the quarter ending June 2023.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2023, the prices of Aluminium sheets showed an overall increase in the German spot market amid tight inventory levels along with an increase in production cost. In the early weeks of the second quarter, the supply and the flat downstream demand from the automobile industries remained stable. The tariff imposition by the US government led to a small amount of sluggish market sentiment at the start of the second quarter. The price increase later persisted as the feedstock prices surged, increasing the alloy surcharges and production costs rose for the Aluminium Sheets. The downstream automobile sector was expanding as the sales of electric vehicles increased, leading to increased consumption and the rising price of Aluminium Sheets in the German spot market. The hike in the premium cost provoked the mills to sell the Aluminium Ingot at a much higher price. The demand from the overseas market increased as the Italian downstream automobile industry’s demand surged. The rising energy cost and labor shortage caused an uprise in Aluminium Ingot prices in Germany. The price for Aluminium sheet Al1100 for FD-Koblenz (Germany) got settled at USD 11144/MT in the quarter ending June 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the US Aluminium Sheet market experienced a bearish market sentiment attributed to higher inventory levels amidst banking turmoil. This was a result of a decline in new orders, lower output, and efforts to reduce inventories. Despite improved supply chains and weaker demand keeping manufacturing price pressures in check, there was a slight increase in input costs and selling prices due to sustained upward wage pressures and elevated raw material prices. Concerns over higher interest rates aimed at curbing inflation weighed on stock markets and boosted the dollar, rendering dollar-priced metals more expensive for buyers. Aluminium sheet prices decreased in March as banking turmoil eased but remained under pressure due to concerns over tighter credit that could limit economic growth and metals demand. The base metals market was impacted by the long-tail effect of Silicon Valley Bank's failure and the banking crisis in Europe and the US, resulting in market panic and risk aversion. Though demand gradually improved, the pessimistic macro mood led to a fall in aluminium prices. As a ripple effect, the Aluminium Sheet (1100-H14-0.8 mm) prices for Ex New York settled at USD 15039/MT.
Asia Pacific
Aluminium Sheet prices in Q1 2023 experienced a downward momentum in China due to limited downstream construction demand and cautious buyers. China's export tariffs on aluminium rose, but tariffs were reduced to 7.3% in the new year. Aluminium prices were rangebound in early February, with downstream demand steadily recovering. Aluminium Sheet stocks plateaued, and market participants awaited the destocking process. The Federal Reserve's hawkish statements put pressure on nonferrous metals prices, while downstream operating rates and sales increased. Market players indicate that the combination of high aluminium prices, limited increase in downstream construction and housing industry operating rates, and uncertainty over future orders has made downstream buyers cautious about buying. Market concerns over global liquidity and systemic risks increased in March due to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and the credit turmoil of Credit Suisse Bank. As a result, Aluminium Sheet prices plunged in March, with Aluminium Sheet (3004-1 mm) prices for Ex Shanghai fixed at USD 2688/MT.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2023, the European Aluminium Sheet market experienced a downward trend due to softening demand and uncertainty about the region's economic outlook. According to the market players, the downstream buyers rushed to secure material in Q4 2022, fearing further price increases, which resulted in a more cautious approach to purchasing. The supply of Aluminium Sheets in the European market remains constrained due to a lack of Russian metal and reductions in domestic capacity. The bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse Bank's credit turmoil in March added to concerns about systemic risks and global liquidity issues, resulting in rising risk aversion and a battered commodity market. European aluminium production capacity has been reduced by up to half in the last two years due to skyrocketing power prices, and prices have yet to recover despite capacity cuts and falling power prices. As a ripple effect, Aluminium Sheet (2 mm-AW-2017A) prices for Ex Koblenz settled at USD 10657/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Aluminium Sheet prices in the US market showed downward sentiment in the final quarter of 2022 due to lower end-user inventory levels amid bearish sentiment. According to manufacturers, transportation bottlenecks occurred in October caused by a lack of containers, shippers, and truck drivers, and long lead times at ports and other transportation hubs were the primary causes of this tightness. In mid-Q4, headwinds such as the US and LME's ban on Russian aluminium increased the price of an Aluminium sheet. However, during the Thanksgiving holiday, the price of aluminium ingots fell. According to some market participants, the benchmark aluminium premium for Russian and non-Russian aluminium continued to diverge, particularly in light of renewed market speculation that the US may ban Russian aluminium. Alcoa, the largest aluminium producer in the United States, had warned investors that rising energy and raw material costs, as well as a drop in aluminium prices, were putting pressure on margins. Many end users began their new year's vacation earlier than usual this year, despite a slowdown in demand for aluminium sheets.
Asia Pacific
Aluminium sheet prices in China rose in the fourth quarter of 2022 as domestic pandemic prevention and control measures eased. Downstream operating rates fell in China, partly due to the week-long National Day holiday at the start of the quarter. Furthermore, the resurgence of the pandemic following the holiday disrupted downstream enterprise production in Henan and Shandong, causing industry demand to fall. Furthermore, downstream demand was low during the traditional off-season. Some aluminium processing plants planned to close early to celebrate the Chinese New Year. Aluminum billet conversion margins plummeted to discounts, while aluminium sheet spot premiums plunged and diverged across regions. Premiums in Gongyi fall down due to a drop in terminal demand and orders. Domestic operating capacity increased further in December due to the approaching winter and New Year's Day, with restarts in Sichuan and Guangxi and new capacity released in Inner Mongolia and Gansu.
Europe
In the German market, Aluminium Sheet prices showcased a mixed outlook in the fourth quarter of 2022 amid falling premium costs. Aluminium supplies were intact, as the LME had decided not to ban trading in the metal produced in Russia or store it in its warehouses, as substantial players in the market planned to buy Russian aluminium in 2023. Market participants were concerned about further production cuts in European alumina refineries and aluminium smelters due to rising energy costs. Europe's refinery and smelter maintenance plans had not returned to normal since the pandemic began. Aluminum manufacturers claimed that the situation was dire; production had been cut by nearly 50%. Due to weak spot demand and falling underlying premiums, market participants noted that a low-carbon upcharge for upstream aluminium billet required significant effort. However, the outlook for downstream demand was bleak; suppliers of aluminium ingots were hesitant to sell inventories at lower prices. The end-of-year restocking drive was unlikely to happen this year. As demand for aluminium ingots fell, many end users started their new year's vacation earlier than usual.
For The Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
During the third quarter of 2022, Aluminium Sheet prices witnessed a rising trend amidst the effect of inflation and economic uncertainty on customer spending. As per market players, the Labor Day holiday in the US came in the middle of the latest assessment period, on September 5, resulting in no reported activity in an already subdued spot market. Buyers remained stunned about how far this slide had gone. As per the buyer, upstream Aluminium prices are close to bottoming out. However, secondary Aluminium alloy manufacturers who buy primary Aluminium cite that price of Aluminium products had fallen due to a widespread decline in the US Aluminium market. The overall Aluminium market is listing lower. For now, there was a status quo amidst a subdued spot market. As a result, the Aluminium Sheet (1100-H14-0.8 mm) prices for Ex New York (USA) settled at USD 17140/MT.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2022, the Asia Pacific region witnessed increased demand for Aluminium sheets. The tradeable volume in the Japanese market is low, and there is no incentive to deliver to Japan. Japanese traders and end-users are wary of purchasing metal on the international market. According to market participants, Japan has much stock, and there have been attempts to destock to avoid backwardation and its effects on balance sheets. Despite smelter curtailments announced in Europe, market participants remained bearish due to high inventory levels in Asia, particularly Japan, and were more concerned about forwarding demand. In India, Vedanta linked the prices of its Aluminium ingots and Aluminium products to the London Metal Exchange. China has limited its Aluminium smelting capacity to 45 million tonnes per year and intends to shift primary capabilities to hydropower-rich regions in the country's southeast. Thus, the discussion of Aluminum Sheet (1 mm) prices for Ex Shanghai (China) settled at USD 2685/MT.
Europe
In the European market, Aluminium Sheet prices witnessed a declining trend due to the weak spot demand and good availability of imported units. Several European smelters have recently announced energy-related production cuts, but premiums have continued to fall, with weak demand outweighing potential supply concerns. Duty unpaid premiums also fell, with lower offers reported in the market to entice more buyers. Some participants are concerned about supply, while others believe the smelter cuts will have little impact, with further premium cuts likely in the coming months due to low consumer demand, ongoing recession fears, and increased availability of imported units. While some players still saw ongoing logistics issues as a barrier to imports, others were less concerned, noting that European premiums remained close to recent record highs, making Europe an appealing destination for material imports. As per buyers, market players have been concerned over supply curtailments. Asian units will replace any capacity lost from Europe. The premiums in the Asian market remain low compared to Europe, and freight rates have dropped, so anyone who accesses units there will bring them over. As a ripple effect, the Aluminium Sheet (1100-H14-0.8 mm) prices for Ex New York settled at USD 17140/MT.
