For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market experienced a challenging quarter characterized by decreasing prices. Several significant factors influenced market prices, including oversupply issues, weakening demand from key sectors like automotive, and uncertainties surrounding global trade dynamics.
Specifically, Mexico experienced the most significant price fluctuations, observing a 2% reduction compared to the previous quarter in 2024. The downturn in Mexico's manufacturing sector, which is partially due to a slump in U.S. manufacturing, has affected demand levels. Additionally, energy markets have influenced the situation, as oil prices fell after the hurricane season, which may help reduce costs for manufacturers.
The overall trends in Mexico reflected a seasonality impact, with a correlation in price changes showing a consistent downward trend. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter indicated a 6% decrease, highlighting the sustained pressure on prices. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A383) CFR Veracruz in Mexico stood at USD 3192/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
The Europe region's Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in Q3 2024 witnessed a notable decrease in prices, influenced by several significant factors. Specifically, Turkey experienced the most significant price fluctuations, observing a 3% reduction compared to the previous quarter in 2024. An oversupply, coupled with diminished demand from key downstream industries like electronics and manufacturing, has been instrumental in this price reduction. The automotive sector's weakened consumption has further intensified the drop. Turkey, in particular, saw the most drastic price fluctuations, mirroring a broader economic deceleration as evidenced by lower sales volumes across multiple industries. The price disparity of 7% between the first and second halves of the quarter underscores the persistent downward pressure on prices. The current market sentiment towards Aluminium Alloy Ingot pricing in Europe is decidedly bearish, as indicated by the quarter's concluding price point. As the quarter came to a close, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot in Turkey was recorded at USD 3192 per metric ton, delivered Ex Ankara.
APAC
In the APAC region, the pricing of Aluminium Alloy Ingots has maintained a consistent level throughout the third quarter of 2024. Market prices remained relatively stable due to several influential factors. The supply demand balance played a crucial role, with a steady supply of aluminium alloys meeting moderate demand levels. Raw material availability and production costs were stable, contributing to the overall price stability. Additionally, economic uncertainties and cautious trading behavior influenced market dynamics, leading to a balanced pricing environment.
In Japan, the market experienced the most significant price changes during this period. However, from the previous quarter in 2024, there was a slight decrease of 2%, suggesting some market fluctuations. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variations, maintaining a stable pricing environment. The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain current interest rates provides a stable economic environment, potentially supporting the aluminium alloy market and related industries. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) stood at USD 2499/MT CFR Tokyo, reflecting the prevailing stability in Japan's market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market experienced a pronounced upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of critical factors. Supply-side constraints, including raw material shortages and logistical disruptions, played a pivotal role in bolstering prices. Additionally, robust demand from key industrial sectors such as automotive, construction, and energy transition applications further intensified market dynamics. Environmental regulations and sustainability mandates have also elevated production costs, contributing to the pricing surge. The market's bullish sentiment was underpinned by heightened investor interest and strategic stockpiling amid geopolitical uncertainties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Focusing on the USA, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market epitomized this quarter’s bullish trend, marked by a significant price escalation. Seasonality influenced price patterns, with demand peaking due to summer-driven consumption and industrial activity ramp-up. A comparative analysis within the quarter revealed a 2% price increment between the first and second halves, indicating sustained upward momentum.
Concluding the quarter, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot price stood at USD 3374/MT DEL Alabama (USA), encapsulating the overall positive sentiment. The pricing environment remained robust, driven by persistent supply constraints, heightened industrial demand, and strategic market behaviours, thereby affirming a stable-to-positive outlook for Aluminium Alloy Ingot pricing in North America.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a consistent upward trend in Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices in the Europe region, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant impetus for this rise has been the geopolitical tensions impacting energy costs and supply chains. As European energy prices soared, aluminium smelters faced increased production costs, catalysing higher market prices. The imposition of stringent environmental regulations also contributed to supply constraints, particularly in bauxite mining and alumina production, exacerbating the price surge. Furthermore, the ongoing sanctions on Russian aluminium have disrupted global supply chains, compelling European markets to seek alternative, often costlier, sources.
Focusing on Germany, the country witnessed the most pronounced price changes. The overall market sentiment in Germany remained largely positive, with the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter shows a 7% increment, indicating a steady upward trajectory throughout the period. This robust growth reflects the heightened demand from downstream industries, notably the automotive and construction sectors, which saw a moderate recovery. Seasonal factors also played a role, with manufacturing activities typically ramping up in the spring, further bolstering demand.
Concluding the quarter, the price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot stood at USD 3464/MT FD-Willich (Germany), signifying a stable yet positive pricing environment. This consistent increase underscores the resilience of the German market amid broader European supply challenges, reflecting sustained demand and strategic market adjustments.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in the APAC region witnessed a noticeable uptrend in pricing, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant driver was the robust demand from key sectors such as automotive, construction, and infrastructure, wherein aluminium's lightweight and durable properties play a crucial role. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions, including geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations, constrained supply, further exacerbating the price elevation. Increased production costs, owing to rising energy prices and raw material expenses, also contributed to the upward momentum. Investment in new technologies and green initiatives aimed at reducing carbon footprints added to the operational costs, underpinning the higher pricing landscape.
Focusing on China, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend was bullish. Seasonal dynamics, such as heightened construction activities in the summer months, amplified demand, contributing to price hikes. The correlation between increased demand and reduced inventory levels was evident, reinforcing the upward trajectory. The price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in China rose comparing the first and second half of the quarter, there was a 1% price increment, reflecting a sustained positive sentiment.
The quarter ended with Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices at USD 2543/MT Ex Shanghai, indicating a stable yet progressively increasing pricing environment. This positive sentiment underscores the market's resilience amidst fluctuating global economic conditions and highlights the enduring strength of demand-supply dynamics in the APAC region's aluminium sector.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American market for Aluminium Alloy Ingot continued to face various factors that impacted the industry. The market situation remained bearish, with an oversupply of Aluminium Alloy Ingot and low demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. Additionally, ongoing trade issues in the Panama and Suez Canals continued to disrupt the supply chain.
The uncertain macroeconomic environment and the contraction of the construction sector continued to contribute to the negative market outlook. Prices for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in the US market further declined due to high inventories in domestic regions and weakened demand from key sectors such as automotive and construction. Market participants remained hesitant to make significant changes to their order positions due to the prevailing market uncertainties. Throughout the quarter, several plant shutdowns were observed, further impacting the availability of Aluminium Alloy Ingot. These shutdowns exacerbated the disruption in the supply chain, leading to a further decline in prices.
In summary, the first quarter of 2024 presented various challenges for the North American market for Aluminium Alloy Ingot, including a bearish market, trade disruptions, and a contracting construction sector.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed various factors that influenced the pricing of Aluminium Alloy Ingot. The market experienced a surge in demand from downstream industries, especially during the spring season and festive holidays. This led to an increase in manufacturing activity and a rise in orders for Aluminium Alloy Ingot. Additionally, trade routes in the Panama Canal and Red Sea were restored, resulting in smoother operations and improved market conditions. The supply of key feedstock materials, such as Bauxite and Alumina, faced fewer challenges, with stability returning after concerns arising from an oil depot explosion in Guinea were addressed. Furthermore, favourable weather conditions and increased construction activity led to a boost in demand from the construction sector. In Japan, which continued to experience significant price changes in the APAC region, the pricing trend for Aluminium Alloy Ingot remained relatively stable. However, the expansion of electric vehicle manufacturing and ongoing government initiatives supporting downstream industries continued to sustain demand for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in Japan.
During the first quarter of 2024, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) CFR Tokyo in Japan stood at USD 2483/MT. Overall, the market outlook for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in the APAC region for the first quarter of 2024 is positive, with expectations of continued growth and stability.
Europe
Throughout the initial three months of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Aluminium Alloy Ingots in Europe were impacted by various contributing factors. Notably, there was a slight uptick in the global availability of aluminium alloy ingots due to substantial expansions in production capacities by leading producing nations. This surplus influx exerted slight downward pressure on pricing trends within Europe. Additionally, Petroleum Coke witnessed a decline in value during the early March. Simultaneously, Pet Coke rates in European markets, particularly in Germany, displayed a consistent downward trajectory. The equilibrium between market supply and demand remains delicately balanced, contingent upon individualized needs. Certain purchasers are opting to delay restocking in anticipation of potential price reductions. However, prices followed a bearish trend owing to the surplus supply and subdued demand scenario. The pricing landscape for Aluminium Alloy Ingots in Germany remained relatively stable throughout the quarter, devoid of notable seasonal fluctuations or correlations. In comparison to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the latest recorded price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A380) FD-Willich in Germany during the first quarter of 2024 stood at USD 3157/MT, showcasing consistency in pricing patterns.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market faced challenges in Q4 2023 due to various factors, resulting in a slight declining trend in December. Firstly, the demand for Aluminium Alloy Ingot remained moderate, with buyers taking a cautious approach amidst uncertain economic conditions. Secondly, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that aimed to boost the renewable energy sector fell short of expectations, limiting demand for Aluminium ingots in the American market.
Finally, the inventory level fluctuated due to recent construction deals that are expected to boost the utilization of Aluminium Ingots in the US spot market. The USA experienced a decline in Aluminium ingot prices during the initial week of October, while the final week of September saw an upswing driven by increased demand from the automotive and housing sectors.
The correlation price percentage for the USA in Q4 2023 was 1.1%, and the percentage change from the previous quarter was 2%. There was no plant shutdown observed in the USA during this period. The price percentage comparison of the first and second half of the quarter for the USA was 10%. The latest price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A383) DEL Alabama in the USA for Q4 2023 was USD 3679/MT.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC region's Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in the fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed notable changes and developments. The market was primarily influenced by factors such as limited supply, increased demand from the automotive and construction sectors, and disruptions in the bauxite supply chain.
These factors led to a surge in prices, with Japan being the most affected country in the region. The scarcity of crucial materials like Bauxite became evident due to restricted imports from major mining countries, and disruptions in the Panama Canal route negatively impacted supply from key producers. As a result, lead times were extended, and freight charges increased. On the demand side, the automotive and construction sectors experienced strong growth, leading to increased scrap imports and positive market sentiment.
The implementation of government policies and deals further supported the rising demand in the domestic market. In Japan, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) Ex-Tokyo reached USD 2545/MT in the fourth quarter. This represents a 2% increase compared to the previous quarter and a significant 81% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The price trend in Japan remained bullish throughout the quarter, driven by factors such as increasing demand, rising energy costs, and a decline in domestic supply. Overall, the APAC region experienced a dynamic and robust Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2023 was challenging for the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in Europe. The market witnessed a robust balance between demand and supply, maintaining a consistently stable environment. The anticipation of an increase in federal interest rates was seen as a positive catalyst, expected to enhance the overall economic landscape and boost market demand.
Despite initial concerns about weak economic conditions and a sluggish demand outlook affecting infrastructure projects, the delay in improvements surprisingly did not significantly impact the demand for Aluminium Alloy ingots. Remarkably, government initiatives aimed at fortifying the downstream construction sector played a crucial role in keeping Aluminum Alloy Ingot prices resiliently elevated.
In Germany, the market experienced notable positive shifts in pricing, driven by a healthy balance of demand and supply. The overall market situation remained steadfast with ample supply levels. The downstream automobile manufacturing industries continued to enjoy stability in demand, even amid lower supply rates. Optimism prevailed in the market, fueled by the perceived positive impact of potential federal interest rate increases by the European Central Bank. This outlook contributed to a buoyant market trend, showcasing resilience and potential for growth. The latest price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A380) FD-Willich in Germany for the last quarter was USD 3189/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In Q3 2023, the USA's Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices dropped significantly due to multiple factors. Initially, cautious buyers in July anticipated lower prices, setting a downward trend. Economic worries compounded this, with disappointing non-farm payrolls in June, high-interest rates, and weak consumer spending. Overseas markets also resumed idle Aluminium production by late July, intensifying supply pressures. Simultaneously, off-season demand in downstream sectors increased social inventory. Macroeconomic factors played a role, as the Producer Price Index indicated cooling inflation, but concerns about inflation and potential Fed rate hikes lingered. Globally, mounting inflation in the US and Chinese construction firm bankruptcies weighed on base metal prices. Additionally, high-interest rates, reduced demand in automotive and construction, and global economic uncertainties, including US bank credit downgrades and Chinese market instability, further destabilized Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices in Q3. The buyers across the US spot market remained in a wait-and-watch situation as the macroeconomic factors hindered consumption and trade activity and provoked the local mills to reduce their prices and provide discounts to attract consumers.
Asia-Pacific
In Japan, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingots experienced a decline in the third quarter due to increased inventory levels in the regional market, resulting in weak market sentiments. Market players were uncertain about the trajectory of non-ferrous product prices, hoping to raise offers, but market sentiment remained subdued. The premium for Aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for July to September remained near previous quarter levels at $127.5 per metric ton due to sluggish local demand and ample stocks. Japan, Asia's largest metal importer, sets the regional standard for premiums. Japanese Aluminium stocks increased by 2.9 percent m-o-m in August 2023, but on a year-on-year basis, they were 9.78 percent lower. Import of Aluminium Alloy Ingots decreased by 13.5 percent YoY as geopolitical tensions affected purchases from Russia. The market also faced uncertainty due to new government agreements and policies and rising inflation in foreign markets affecting purchases. Expectations of capacity regulation negatively impacted the market, but demand from the automotive industry is expected to increase, potentially leading to a price increase in the next month. However, low activity in the spot market and economic concerns have kept buyers cautious, with large inventories due to declining consumption in the automotive and construction sectors.
Europe
In the third quarter, Turkey's Aluminum Alloy Ingot market saw a slight price decline due to a stable supply-demand situation. Factors contributing to this stability included a slowdown in US business activities in August, especially impacting the services sector. Domestic Aluminum ingot supplies were limited with low inventories, but Yunnan's production resumption hinted at gradual supply recovery. Mid-August witnessed increased downstream inventory restocking, boosting confidence and spotting premiums. Short-term low inventories supported Aluminum prices, but macroeconomic uncertainties and expected supply increases created uncertainty. Aluminum prices were predicted to remain volatile, requiring close monitoring of consumption and inventory trends. The Aluminum market balanced supply and demand with high molten Aluminum output but limited ingot production. Challenges included the influx of imported Aluminum ingots and Southwest capacity release, but their impact was expected to be limited. The buyers across the German spot market remained in a wait-and-watch situation as the macroeconomic factors hindered consumption and trade activity and provoked the local mills to reduce their prices and provide discounts to attract consumers.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the US market, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices showcased a stagnancy in their pricing momentum in the second quarter of 2023 despite lackluster demand. Despite a drop in the US non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate data showed that the labor market was strong, leading to the expectation that the Fed would increase interest rates. Buyers were refraining from making significant purchases, as producers maintained high offers citing good order books and reduced supply. However, buyers were skeptical about the sustainability of the uptrend in the summer. With both supply and demand on the rise, aluminum prices fluctuated within a range. However, the demand for automobiles remained weak, leading to sluggish orders. As a result, overall transaction volume remained low. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve faced a difficult situation as growing inflation, a sluggish economy, and the risk of credit defaults loomed. Although the operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processing companies increased, downstream enterprises did not show a strong interest in stocking up, resulting in a decline in Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices. As a result, market players raised concerns about a potential recession that could darken the demand outlook for the metal. Under the prevailing high-interest rates, companies hold a relatively pessimistic outlook on future macroeconomic prospects. There was some investor caution around US debt ceiling concerns at the end of Q3. However, Congress approved legislation that suspended the debt ceiling in the first days of June in a deal that included concessions on spending that had little effect on economic growth.
Asia Pacific
In the second quarter of 2023, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices showcased dwindling market dynamics in the Chinese market because the operating rates of major secondary aluminium factories were relatively steady in Q2, producing mainly for existing orders. Furthermore, downstream consumption of primary aluminium alloys continued to remain sluggish, which contributed to leading enterprises maintaining their stable operating rates. Fundamentally, domestic aluminium supply maintained a slow upward trend in the second quarter, while demand gradually picked up, and the aluminium ingot social inventory had been in a destocking cycle. Aluminium alloy enterprises restocked as needed, but most downstream enterprises hardly stocked up before the Labour Day holiday. As a result, their operating rates probably dropped after the holiday due to poor new orders. The domestic aluminium ingot social inventory dropped significantly but accumulated slightly after the holiday. The prices were affected by factors such as higher prices for imported materials and moderate transaction levels. Despite higher offers from overseas markets like the Middle East and Western countries, buyers had been sourcing imported materials due to tight supplies in the European market. Chinese importers faced minor losses due to the RMB exchange rate reaching a new low for the year. The price gap between ADC12 secondary Aluminium Alloy and Aluminium Ingot widened further due to decreased demand for the former. In terms of production capacity, the Guizhou and Sichuan regions continued to resume production, but any short-term changes remained limited. The import window was closed due to RMB depreciation, weak domestic demand, as well as overseas ADC12 prices being higher than domestic ones. This, combined with weak demand, kept ADC12 prices moving in a narrow range in the short term.
Europe
In the European market, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices showcased an up-swinging price trend in the second quarter of 2023 owing to the stable supply-demand outlook after the United States announced import tariffs on Russian metal. The orders received by primary aluminium alloy companies improved MoM in Q2, but few companies believed that there was a significant improvement in demand in the month. The tightening market supply led to an increase in European Aluminium premiums over the month. Some consumers were reluctant to pay higher prices due to historically high production costs, but supply risks remain, which lead to a change in their decision. The upcharge for Aluminium products continued to remain flat and below the low-carbon differential for Aluminium due to an oversupply of billet on the market. From a demand perspective, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market was experiencing stability with a positive outlook. Downstream industries such as automotive and die-casting demonstrated a consistent preference for operating conditions. However, the overall demand range remains limited. Concerns over the banking crisis, the approaching US debt ceiling, weak domestic consumption data, and a bleak global economic outlook contributed to pressure on Aluminium prices. As a result, Aluminium prices had slightly declined from their previous highs. A significant portion of the warehouse stock comprises Russian metal, which Western consumers were reluctant to use. However, the levels of aluminum stocks were not increasing at the expected rate, considering the low demand, indicating a thin supply outlook.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In Q1 2023, Aluminium Alloy ingot prices in the US market rose due to soaring premium charges amidst banking meltdowns. Rising Chinese demand and production curtailments led to a rise in premiums for aluminium ingot in Western markets. Meanwhile, Section 232 duties were imposed on Russian Aluminium, with Russian Aluminium products facing 200% duties as direct imports into the United States. Potential purchasers of Russian Aluminium were instructed to exercise caution due to the new regulations. Furthermore, the unstable US market after two bank collapses in mid-March led to a drop in feedstock Aluminium Ingot premium. Despite growing supply, downstream consumption was in peak season and social inventories of aluminium ingots had declined sharply, resulting in minimal oversupply concerns. As a ripple effect, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A383) prices for Ex Alabama were fixed at USD 3725/MT in the week ending March 31.
Asia Pacific
Throughout the first quarter of 2023, the Chinese market showcased stagnant Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC12) prices due to the plentiful inventory level and weak downstream Automotive demand amidst the Chinese New Year Holidays and banking sector turmoil. Although primary aluminium alloy production rates slightly decreased, rates for the aluminium and secondary aluminium alloy sectors remained stable. Large producers maintained normal production, but consumption decreased after the Lantern Festival. Weak downstream demand and anticipation of overseas interest rate hikes, coupled with abundant supply, kept Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices low. In March, seasonal destocking began, and despite high stocks in some regions, limited cargo and raised molten aluminium output led to decreased ingot arrivals and increased prices. However, the fall in aluminium scrap metal impacted ADC12 prices. Traders picked up goods cautiously, widening the price differential between primary aluminium and aluminium scrap and easing cost pressure on secondary aluminium plants. As a result, Aluminium Ingot (ADC 12) prices in the week ending March 31 for Ex Shanghai (China) settled at USD 2675/MT.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2023, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices remained stagnant in the European market due to several factors, including hand-to-mouth purchasing activity, ongoing production curtailments, and fluctuating premium charges. In January, the premium prices ascended due to the anticipation of recovering demand in China after the lunar new year holiday and higher US premiums. Despite this, purchasing remained on a hand-to-mouth basis, and low liquidity persisted due to the lack of demand from the aluminium and casting sectors, despite some superficial improvements in downstream industries. European producers had a hard time competing with low-cost third-country imports and other local suppliers liquidating their positions, while power prices remained high, up to three times higher than two years ago. Although demand for commodities was healthy due to China's reopening and the global focus on energy security and decarbonization/electrification, the limited supply made the European aluminium market vulnerable to any increase in demand. Despite the capacity being taken offline, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices did not recover from the precipitous drops that began a year ago. Thus, the discussion of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A383) in the week ending March 31 for Ex Alabama (USA) settled at USD 3725/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the US market, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices showcased a mixed trend in the fourth quarter of 2022 amidst shortages of containers and labor. In October and November, rising premium costs provoked the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices to surge due to transportation bottlenecks caused by a lack of containers, shippers, and truck drivers, as well as long wait times at ports and other transportation hubs. Domestic market participants were most concerned about European production curtailment and their potential spillover effects on the US market. In December, Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices fell by more than 1.4% as the market began to slow down in preparation for the Thanksgiving holiday. Some producers reduced their offers. Manufacturers witnessed limited profit margins due to the rising COVID-19 cases in China and expectations of a surplus supply next year. Alcoa and other manufacturers had warned that high energy and raw material costs and a drop in aluminium prices put pressure on margins. As a result, the price of aluminium alloy ingot (A383) for Ex Alabama settled at USD 3720/MT during the final week of the quarter.
Asia Pacific
In the Chinese market, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices showcased a rising trend in the fourth quarter of 2022, owing to the steady supply and demand outlook. According to market participants, the lower inventory level boosted the price of aluminum in October. Furthermore, the pandemic has hampered transportation. The operating rates of downstream plants in Henan had fallen due to pandemic controls, and the demand outlook in east China was also pessimistic as the traditional off-season approached. On the demand side, November and December witnessed low downstream consumption. Some aluminum processing plants closed early to celebrate the Chinese New Year.
Premiums in Gongyi fell due to a drop in terminal demand and orders. Spot premiums remained high due to a lack of supply in the spot market and traders' refusal to sell. Furthermore, the downstream processing industry had reached a seasonal low with weak downstream consumption in December. Thus, the Aluminium Ingot (ADC 12) prices for ex-Shanghai and FOB Shanghai settled at USD 2650/MT and USD 2700/MT during the last week of Q4 2022.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices showcased a stagnancy in the price trend in the European market amidst soaring energy costs, significant production curtailments, and weakening downstream demand. Aluminum manufacturers claimed that the situation was dire; production had been reduced by nearly 50%. Major production curtailments such as Hydro's Karmy and Hydro Husnes aluminum plants in Norway were due to low demand. Despite the uncertainty and concerns about rising energy prices, there was a slight panic in the European market. Buyers were well-stocked, and falling end-user demand drove the European aluminum market. According to market participants, there were no concerns about supply for the first quarter of 2023, as players had excess inventory and orders that had already been delayed until 2023.
Some restocking of Aluminium Alloy Ingot occurred in the market due to low end-user inventory levels amid bearish sentiment. Prominent buyers curtailed their usual activities to wait until the first or second week of January. As a result, the aluminium alloy ingot (A380) discussions for Ex Willich and FOB Hamburg settled at USD 3238/MT and USD 3300/MT, respectively.
For The Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The Aluminium alloy ingot market witnessed mixed sentiments in the third quarter of 2022 owing to the cyclical demand dynamics. Aluminium prices plunged in July as the cost of raw materials dropped. The three-month price of Aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell from a record high in March, according to domestic participants. Traders claim that the predominant topic in industrial metals has been fear of a recession, as rising energy prices result in a slowdown in production.
The Aluminium industry is being impacted more than ever by increasing energy prices. As a result, higher production costs at Aluminium smelters affect Aluminium pricing. In August and September, Aluminium prices rose earlier in the session due to LME output reductions driven by higher energy costs, but they later buckled under macroeconomic pressure since weak growth resulted in decreased demand for base metals used in many industries. A strong currency, rising interest rates, and a weak global market have affected industrial metal prices. As a ripple effect, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices for Ex Alabama settled at USD 3745/MT.
Asia Pacific
Aluminium alloy ingot prices in the Asian market increased in the third quarter of 2022 due to rising interest rates, debts, and cost pressure. Market participants' lower positions on easing demand from consuming industries kept Aluminium prices quiet in July. However, given the energy-intensive nature of the smelting process, high power prices posed a particular problem for Aluminium operators in August and September. A series of lockdowns in China have weighed heavily on demand rather than supply, as the country is a significant consumer of metals. Heatwaves in various provinces of China have also impacted demand amid power shortages, obstructing production as this has been an energy-intensive metal. As a ripple effect, the Aluminium Alloy ingot prices surged. Thus, the Aluminium Ingot (ADC 12) prices for Ex Shanghai (China) settled at USD 2784/MT.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2022, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices witnessed an episodic sentiment in the European market amidst soaring energy prices. The ADC 12 prices fell in July due to the muted demand outlook. However, ADC 12 prices soared in August and September as downstream demand remained firm amidst soaring energy prices. Surging energy costs have induced temporary shutdowns of smelters in European regions, supporting the recent uptick in base metal prices. Speira, the European Aluminium rolling company, has considered cutting the output of its German Aluminium smelter to 50% of the total capacity to cope with soaring energy prices. Some Aluminium smelters have suspended their production completely, affecting regional supply for a long time and making consumers more dependent on imported goods. The metal industry in Europe is one of the largest consumers of electricity and natural gas, but the Aluminium and zinc production capacity in this region has dropped about 50% in the past year. As a result, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) prices for Ex Willich (Germany) settled at USD 3084/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During Q2 2022, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices witnessed a downward trajectory in the US market owing to muted demand and soaring production costs amidst delays in the supply chain and the tightening Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy. As per market participants, the growth in production activity slowed as manufacturers persistently faced supply-chain delays and labor shortages. Additionally, new orders and stockpiles were limited, and customers' pushback on high prices contributed to the slowing of new orders, but it also reflected shortages and growing concern about the outlook. Market participants note that manufacturing activity in the United States slowed more than expected in June, with a measure of new orders contracting amid aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Asia Pacific
In the Asian market, Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices witnessed a slightly declining trend during the second quarter of 2022. However, Aluminum Alloy Ingot prices surged in April due to the low inventory level and soaring raw material prices. Furthermore, concerns about overstressed supply chains, global cost-push, and sanctions on Russian Aluminium exports strained the supply chain. Likewise, Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices fell in May and June due to low demand and limited transactions in the regional market. Additionally, market participants are trimming their positions on easing demand from consuming industries, mainly keeping Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices lower. As per market players, with the rising inflationary pressure, central banks are raising interest rates to slow down their economic growth rates, impacting metal demand adversely, primarily Aluminium and steel.
Europe
In European nations, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices witnessed a declining trend in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2022, primarily due to the limited buying inquiries amid fluctuation in three-month LME prices. However, the price of Aluminium soared globally during the first quarter due to hostilities between Eastern European nations and rising crude oil prices. Moreover, supply disruption and imposed sanctions on Russia from Western markets were the backdrop reasons for the increased costs of Aluminium. Furthermore, premiums fell because of sluggish demand from the automotive industry, dealing with chipset scarcity. Again, because of a constrained container market and high freight charges, it was unfeasible to transfer metal from Asia to Europe or North America, where premiums are significantly greater. As a ripple effect, Aluminium smelters in the European region persisted in curbing their production activity due to the high energy costs aggravated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In the US market, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices witnessed higher demand projections for Aluminium in Q1 of 2022 owing to the robust demand, lower inventory level, and tight demand-supply balance amidst the Russia-Ukraine combat. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the US sanction on Russian Aluminium exports, aggravated the metal availability, keeping prices at a high level. According to market participants, despite higher imports, the shipments into North America remain below record volumes recorded in 2017. Additionally, the US government is stepping up efforts to promote low-carbon steel and Aluminium production and procurement. In line with this, the administration announced in mid-Q1 that it would implement measures to strengthen its competitiveness in the manufacturing sector.
Asia Pacific
During the first quarter of 2022, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices witnessed an upsurge trend in the Asian market, owing to the muted demand and soaring production cost. Manufacturers cite the slowed global growth, high inflation, and skyrocketing raw material costs dampened demand from the construction sector, particularly in top consumer China, where persistent COVID outbreaks hampered economic activity. As per market participants, the rate of destocking of Aluminium alloy ingots has slowed as the pandemic has hit the consumption hubs of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. The operating costs of Aluminium processing enterprises fell, particularly in Shandong, where operational rates fell due to the pandemic. Amidst this, the rising energy, soaring fuel costs, and inflated raw material prices have skyrocketed the market of Aluminium Alloy Ingot globally. According to the Indian market players, the feedstock Aluminium prices in March rose nearly 20 % compared to the end of January.
Europe
In the European market, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices showcased an inclining trend owing to the robust demand and soaring raw material costs amidst the extending hostilities between Eastern European nations. As per market participants, Aluminium smelters in Europe continued to reduce their production due to the high energy costs exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Further, the worries of prolonged supply crunches, global cost-push pressure, and the sanctions on Russian Aluminium exports squeezed out the supply chain. However, fuelled by the rising geopolitical risks, global Aluminium prices skyrocketed nearly 17% in March, showing severe tightness in the worldwide supply chain. The sharp rise in raw material c has impacted the several end-user sectors already facing input cost surges. As a ripple effect of lower inventory levels and soaring raw material prices, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices surged.
