For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, aluminum alloy ingot prices in North America declined by 14% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting softened demand and persistent supply chain challenges. The market was influenced by global economic uncertainties, subdued downstream activity, and fluctuating trade policies. Weakened demand from the automotive sector, particularly in the U.S., and cautious procurement strategies across industries contributed to the price decline.
In Mexico, prices followed a similar downward trend, with significant fluctuations throughout the quarter. The automotive sector, a key driver of demand, displayed mixed results. While overall vehicle production and exports saw modest year-over-year growth, some manufacturers experienced production reductions, reflecting broader economic caution. Demand was further dampened by concerns over potential U.S. protectionist policies, port congestion, and a shortage of high-quality aluminum scrap. Despite these challenges, the sector showed resilience, driven by strong vehicle sales and increasing investment in manufacturing.
Although domestic production remained steady, subdued consumer spending and seasonal closures further pressured prices. The Mexican market closed the quarter cautiously, with hopes for recovery tied to stabilizing trade dynamics and improved industrial activity in the coming year. By the end of the quarter, prices stabilized, with aluminum alloy ingot (A383) CFR Veracruz (Mexico) at USD 2892/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Aluminium alloy ingot prices in Europe declined by 17%, reflecting persistent challenges across key industries. The downturn was influenced by reduced demand in the automotive sector, particularly in Germany, where sluggish electric vehicle sales and economic uncertainties weighed heavily on market sentiment. The insolvency filing of WKW. Group and Volkswagen's plans to scale down operations underscored the pressures facing the automotive supply chain, further dampening demand for aluminium alloy ingots. Despite stable supply chains, high energy costs and subdued industrial activity added to the downward price pressure. In Turkey, Aluminium alloy ingot prices mirrored the European trend, closing the quarter at USD 2627/MT Ex Ankara. The domestic manufacturing sector faced challenges, with reduced capacity utilization and weak automotive production contributing to the decline. Vehicle production dropped by 10.4% year-on-year, directly impacting aluminium demand. While initiatives like the expansion of bauxite production and investments in rolling mill capacity aim to boost future supply, current demand remained moderate. The automotive sector showed mixed signals, with a slight uptick in electric and hybrid vehicle sales, but broader industry weakness persisted. Coupled with surplus inventory and cautious procurement strategies, the market maintained a bearish sentiment throughout the quarter.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Asian Aluminium Alloy Ingot market saw a 4.4% price increase, driven by robust demand and constrained supply. Japan's market played a significant role in this upward trend, supported by resilient downstream industries like automotive and electronics, as well as increased imports. Despite global disruptions in aluminum production and logistics, Japan maintained steady domestic production, with manufacturers operating near capacity to offset reduced imports. Rising energy costs and stricter environmental regulations added to production expenses, but operational efficiencies mitigated these impacts. Demand in Japan's automotive sector remained strong, with export markets showing resilience despite declining domestic vehicle sales. Additionally, a depreciating yen bolstered exports, contributing to price growth. However, logistical challenges and shifting trade policies, such as China's cancellation of export tax rebates, tightened supply further. The construction and packaging industries maintained stable demand, while the electronics sector experienced growth fueled by higher PC and semiconductor shipments. By the end of the quarter, Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) CFR Tokyo stood at USD 2635/MT. Japan's aluminum market reflects a mix of challenges and growth opportunities, underpinned by evolving trade dynamics, resilient downstream demand, and cautious optimism for continued stability into 2025.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market experienced a challenging quarter characterized by decreasing prices. Several significant factors influenced market prices, including oversupply issues, weakening demand from key sectors like automotive, and uncertainties surrounding global trade dynamics.
Specifically, Mexico experienced the most significant price fluctuations, observing a 2% reduction compared to the previous quarter in 2024. The downturn in Mexico's manufacturing sector, which is partially due to a slump in U.S. manufacturing, has affected demand levels. Additionally, energy markets have influenced the situation, as oil prices fell after the hurricane season, which may help reduce costs for manufacturers.
The overall trends in Mexico reflected a seasonality impact, with a correlation in price changes showing a consistent downward trend. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter indicated a 6% decrease, highlighting the sustained pressure on prices. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A383) CFR Veracruz in Mexico stood at USD 3192/MT, underscoring the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
The Europe region's Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in Q3 2024 witnessed a notable decrease in prices, influenced by several significant factors. Specifically, Turkey experienced the most significant price fluctuations, observing a 3% reduction compared to the previous quarter in 2024. An oversupply, coupled with diminished demand from key downstream industries like electronics and manufacturing, has been instrumental in this price reduction. The automotive sector's weakened consumption has further intensified the drop. Turkey, in particular, saw the most drastic price fluctuations, mirroring a broader economic deceleration as evidenced by lower sales volumes across multiple industries. The price disparity of 7% between the first and second halves of the quarter underscores the persistent downward pressure on prices. The current market sentiment towards Aluminium Alloy Ingot pricing in Europe is decidedly bearish, as indicated by the quarter's concluding price point. As the quarter came to a close, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot in Turkey was recorded at USD 3192 per metric ton, delivered Ex Ankara.
APAC
In the APAC region, the pricing of Aluminium Alloy Ingots has maintained a consistent level throughout the third quarter of 2024. Market prices remained relatively stable due to several influential factors. The supply demand balance played a crucial role, with a steady supply of aluminium alloys meeting moderate demand levels. Raw material availability and production costs were stable, contributing to the overall price stability. Additionally, economic uncertainties and cautious trading behavior influenced market dynamics, leading to a balanced pricing environment.
In Japan, the market experienced the most significant price changes during this period. However, from the previous quarter in 2024, there was a slight decrease of 2%, suggesting some market fluctuations. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variations, maintaining a stable pricing environment. The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain current interest rates provides a stable economic environment, potentially supporting the aluminium alloy market and related industries. The quarter-ending price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) stood at USD 2499/MT CFR Tokyo, reflecting the prevailing stability in Japan's market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Aluminium Alloy Ingot market experienced a pronounced upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of critical factors. Supply-side constraints, including raw material shortages and logistical disruptions, played a pivotal role in bolstering prices. Additionally, robust demand from key industrial sectors such as automotive, construction, and energy transition applications further intensified market dynamics. Environmental regulations and sustainability mandates have also elevated production costs, contributing to the pricing surge. The market's bullish sentiment was underpinned by heightened investor interest and strategic stockpiling amid geopolitical uncertainties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Focusing on the USA, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market epitomized this quarter’s bullish trend, marked by a significant price escalation. Seasonality influenced price patterns, with demand peaking due to summer-driven consumption and industrial activity ramp-up. A comparative analysis within the quarter revealed a 2% price increment between the first and second halves, indicating sustained upward momentum.
Concluding the quarter, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot price stood at USD 3374/MT DEL Alabama (USA), encapsulating the overall positive sentiment. The pricing environment remained robust, driven by persistent supply constraints, heightened industrial demand, and strategic market behaviours, thereby affirming a stable-to-positive outlook for Aluminium Alloy Ingot pricing in North America.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a consistent upward trend in Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices in the Europe region, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant impetus for this rise has been the geopolitical tensions impacting energy costs and supply chains. As European energy prices soared, aluminium smelters faced increased production costs, catalysing higher market prices. The imposition of stringent environmental regulations also contributed to supply constraints, particularly in bauxite mining and alumina production, exacerbating the price surge. Furthermore, the ongoing sanctions on Russian aluminium have disrupted global supply chains, compelling European markets to seek alternative, often costlier, sources.
Focusing on Germany, the country witnessed the most pronounced price changes. The overall market sentiment in Germany remained largely positive, with the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter shows a 7% increment, indicating a steady upward trajectory throughout the period. This robust growth reflects the heightened demand from downstream industries, notably the automotive and construction sectors, which saw a moderate recovery. Seasonal factors also played a role, with manufacturing activities typically ramping up in the spring, further bolstering demand.
Concluding the quarter, the price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot stood at USD 3464/MT FD-Willich (Germany), signifying a stable yet positive pricing environment. This consistent increase underscores the resilience of the German market amid broader European supply challenges, reflecting sustained demand and strategic market adjustments.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Aluminium Alloy Ingot market in the APAC region witnessed a noticeable uptrend in pricing, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant driver was the robust demand from key sectors such as automotive, construction, and infrastructure, wherein aluminium's lightweight and durable properties play a crucial role. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions, including geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations, constrained supply, further exacerbating the price elevation. Increased production costs, owing to rising energy prices and raw material expenses, also contributed to the upward momentum. Investment in new technologies and green initiatives aimed at reducing carbon footprints added to the operational costs, underpinning the higher pricing landscape.
Focusing on China, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend was bullish. Seasonal dynamics, such as heightened construction activities in the summer months, amplified demand, contributing to price hikes. The correlation between increased demand and reduced inventory levels was evident, reinforcing the upward trajectory. The price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in China rose comparing the first and second half of the quarter, there was a 1% price increment, reflecting a sustained positive sentiment.
The quarter ended with Aluminium Alloy Ingot prices at USD 2543/MT Ex Shanghai, indicating a stable yet progressively increasing pricing environment. This positive sentiment underscores the market's resilience amidst fluctuating global economic conditions and highlights the enduring strength of demand-supply dynamics in the APAC region's aluminium sector.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American market for Aluminium Alloy Ingot continued to face various factors that impacted the industry. The market situation remained bearish, with an oversupply of Aluminium Alloy Ingot and low demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. Additionally, ongoing trade issues in the Panama and Suez Canals continued to disrupt the supply chain.
The uncertain macroeconomic environment and the contraction of the construction sector continued to contribute to the negative market outlook. Prices for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in the US market further declined due to high inventories in domestic regions and weakened demand from key sectors such as automotive and construction. Market participants remained hesitant to make significant changes to their order positions due to the prevailing market uncertainties. Throughout the quarter, several plant shutdowns were observed, further impacting the availability of Aluminium Alloy Ingot. These shutdowns exacerbated the disruption in the supply chain, leading to a further decline in prices.
In summary, the first quarter of 2024 presented various challenges for the North American market for Aluminium Alloy Ingot, including a bearish market, trade disruptions, and a contracting construction sector.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed various factors that influenced the pricing of Aluminium Alloy Ingot. The market experienced a surge in demand from downstream industries, especially during the spring season and festive holidays. This led to an increase in manufacturing activity and a rise in orders for Aluminium Alloy Ingot. Additionally, trade routes in the Panama Canal and Red Sea were restored, resulting in smoother operations and improved market conditions. The supply of key feedstock materials, such as Bauxite and Alumina, faced fewer challenges, with stability returning after concerns arising from an oil depot explosion in Guinea were addressed. Furthermore, favourable weather conditions and increased construction activity led to a boost in demand from the construction sector. In Japan, which continued to experience significant price changes in the APAC region, the pricing trend for Aluminium Alloy Ingot remained relatively stable. However, the expansion of electric vehicle manufacturing and ongoing government initiatives supporting downstream industries continued to sustain demand for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in Japan.
During the first quarter of 2024, the price of Aluminium Alloy Ingot (ADC 12) CFR Tokyo in Japan stood at USD 2483/MT. Overall, the market outlook for Aluminium Alloy Ingot in the APAC region for the first quarter of 2024 is positive, with expectations of continued growth and stability.
Europe
Throughout the initial three months of 2024, the pricing dynamics of Aluminium Alloy Ingots in Europe were impacted by various contributing factors. Notably, there was a slight uptick in the global availability of aluminium alloy ingots due to substantial expansions in production capacities by leading producing nations. This surplus influx exerted slight downward pressure on pricing trends within Europe. Additionally, Petroleum Coke witnessed a decline in value during the early March. Simultaneously, Pet Coke rates in European markets, particularly in Germany, displayed a consistent downward trajectory. The equilibrium between market supply and demand remains delicately balanced, contingent upon individualized needs. Certain purchasers are opting to delay restocking in anticipation of potential price reductions. However, prices followed a bearish trend owing to the surplus supply and subdued demand scenario. The pricing landscape for Aluminium Alloy Ingots in Germany remained relatively stable throughout the quarter, devoid of notable seasonal fluctuations or correlations. In comparison to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the latest recorded price for Aluminium Alloy Ingot (A380) FD-Willich in Germany during the first quarter of 2024 stood at USD 3157/MT, showcasing consistency in pricing patterns.
