For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American AES (Alkyl Ether Sulfates) market experienced a predominantly bullish trend in Q4 2024, with prices rising by approximately 11%, largely driven by increased production costs. Adverse weather conditions, particularly hurricanes, severely impacted manufacturing activities in the region. Frequent power outages during these storms disrupted production, especially in parts of the southeastern United States, including northern Georgia and the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians. The storm caused peak outages of nearly 4.7 million, and power outages increased dramatically overnight as the storm progressed northward, leading to significant destruction along the eastern side of its path.
Additionally, the supply chain faced potential disruptions due to ongoing labor negotiations with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing around 45,000 dockworkers at major East and Gulf Coast ports. Although a strike threat in early October was averted, concerns about future port disruptions remained, particularly if a new contract was not secured by the January 15 deadline. This uncertainty led some U.S. shippers to consider alternative routes, which could affect the regular flow of SLES (Sodium Lauryl Ether Sulfate) exports.
Midway through the quarter, AES production dynamics were further strained. The price of an essential feedstock, Ethylene Oxide, increased by 1.3% due to a force majeure declared by INEOS Oxide at its Texas facility, which has an active production capacity of 33,333 tons per month. This disruption, caused by technical issues, significantly reduced the availability of Ethylene Oxide, which in turn impacted the production of downstream derivatives, including AES. These supply limitations were exacerbated by a sluggish demand environment. The downstream soap and detergent industry were experiencing off-season conditions, and a drop in consumer confidence further muted transactional activities for AES.
As the quarter progressed, demand conditions deteriorated further as consumers braced for a prolonged winter slowdown, which dampened market activity even more.
Europe
The European AES (Alkyl Ether Sulfates) market experienced a significant surge in prices, rising by approximately 11% during Q4 2024, primarily due to a shortage in production levels and escalating prices of feedstock Fatty Alcohol. Fatty Alcohol prices surged by nearly 46%, driven by increases in the prices of upstream Palm Oil. The low production of Palm Oil across major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia, combined with Indonesia’s implementation of the B40 Biodiesel mandate, led to higher production costs for AES, impacting markets globally, including Europe.
Despite the price surge, demand and export conditions remained sluggish, with several major European ports experiencing disruptions due to ongoing maintenance works. These operational challenges slowed the movement of goods and affected the supply chain. Towards the end of the quarter, destocking activities became a key market trend as suppliers sought to clear excess inventories before the year’s end. This inventory liquidation helped prevent further price increases and provided some stability to the market, but overall, conditions remained subdued with limited market activity and cautious buying interest. As a result, while production constraints pushed prices higher, the sluggish demand environment and logistical challenges kept market dynamics in check.
APAC
In the last quarter of 2024, AES prices across the Asian market rose by approximately 4%. At the start of the quarter, AES prices were heavily impacted by rising feedstock Fatty Alcohol prices, which increased by about 1% and remained at historically high levels. This surge was largely attributed to an 8% rise in feedstock Palm Oil prices in September 2024, driving up production costs across Asia and leading to higher-priced imports arriving at Asian ports. However, the overall impact on AES prices was somewhat softened by a 12% drop-in intra-Asia freight rates, which alleviated some of the cost pressure, especially as a backlog of inventories had accumulated during the monsoon season's sluggish demand. Market participants were hopeful that demand would improve as festive sentiments increased, potentially leading to a market deficit.
By mid-quarter, the rise in Fatty Alcohol prices continued, climbing by another 2%, which further increased production costs for AES and led to more expensive imports into Asian ports. Additionally, the Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) surged by 45% in early November, driven by the pre-Christmas cargo rush, further contributing to higher AES import prices in Asia. Despite this, demand from the downstream FMCG sector during the peak festive season was lower than expected, which kept the impact of price increases in the Asian market minimal. Suppliers across Asia continued to rely on existing stock, avoiding new purchases as warehouses remained well-stocked.
Towards the end of the quarter, Asia faced a shortage of palm oil due to adverse weather conditions in Malaysia, which disrupted palm oil harvesting. This resulted in a reduction in palm oil production for the fourth consecutive month. As Malaysia is a major supplier of palm oil, the production shortfall created global supply constraints, including in Asia. The limited availability of palm oil led to higher procurement costs for raw materials, impacting production costs for AES and downstream products, such as surfactants. This disruption and the associated cost pressures played a crucial role in shaping market trends and pricing dynamics for palm oil-based products in Asia.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
During the third quarter of 2024, the US AES market experienced mixed pricing dynamics. Prices initially declined in July, followed by a bearish market trend, before rising again in September. These fluctuations were largely driven by changes in Fatty Alcohol prices, which directly impacted production costs for AES. In September, industrial production fell by 0.3%, and chemical production decreased by 0.25%, further affecting AES availability in North America. Procurement activities for AES were moderate, with limited inquiries from downstream markets. Despite the North American surfactant sector achieving record highs, demand for AES fell short of expectations.
However, reports indicated an improvement in new orders throughout September, a trend expected to continue into October. Manufacturers have relied on depleting backlogs to maintain operations, with the pace of backlog clearance reaching its highest level for the year to date. Overall, while demand dynamics remain uneven, the increase in new orders provides a glimmer of optimism for the AES market as it moves into the final quarter of the year.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Alkyl Ether Sulfates (AES) market in the APAC region experienced a significant increase in prices, driven by various key factors. The market saw a notable 30% surge in prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a 13% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. This upward trend was primarily influenced by a combination of factors such as rising production costs, including an uptick in feedstock prices like Ethylene Oxide and Fatty Alcohol. Additionally, challenges in the palm oil supply chain, increased freight charges, and moderate to high demand from the downstream FMCG industry played crucial roles in pushing prices higher. In Malaysia, palm oil prices surged by approximately 11% in late September 2024, following a 3.8% decline in production to 1.82 million tonnes. Further seasonal declines were anticipated, leading to a domestic shortage of Fatty Alcohol and increasing prices. In Indonesia, palm oil production fell by 2% in August 2024, exacerbating the supply issues. The government's decision to raise the palm oil content in biodiesel from 35% to 40% increased demand, further pushing palm oil prices up globally. Exports of palm oil products also dropped significantly, from 3,385 thousand tonnes in July to 2,241 thousand tonnes in August 2024, fuelling the rise in AES prices across the global market. Specifically focusing on India, the market witnessed the most significant price changes, with a 10% increase between the first and second half of the quarter. This price volatility can be attributed to seasonal factors, demand fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Alkyl Ether Sulfates (AES) market saw a significant price increase, driven by several key factors. Rising production costs, particularly a 10% hike in feedstock prices like Ethylene Oxide and Fatty Alcohol, were major contributors. The surge in Fatty Alcohol prices was largely linked to ongoing challenges in the palm oil supply chain. In Malaysia, palm oil prices rose approximately 11% in late September 2024, following a 3.8% decline in production to 1.82 million tonnes. This trend is expected to worsen with anticipated seasonal declines, leading to a domestic shortage of Fatty Alcohol and further driving up prices. Similarly, Indonesia experienced a 2% decrease in palm oil production in August 2024, exacerbating supply issues. The Indonesian government's decision to increase the palm oil content in biodiesel from 35% to 40% has heightened global demand, further pushing prices up. Exports of palm oil products also saw a significant drop, falling from 3,385 thousand tonnes in July to 2,241 thousand tonnes in August 2024, which contributed to the upward trend in AES prices across Europe. Demand from the downstream FMCG sector remained moderate to high, supporting this pricing momentum. In terms of demand dynamics, the domestic market for AES remained firm, particularly within the surfactant sector. Market insights indicated that the surfactant industry performed well during this period, boosting demand for AES. However, new orders plummeted, leading to rapid depletion of backlogs and placing pressure on production across the region. This resulted in a slight decline in factory employment levels and reduced purchasing activity, as companies focused on inventory management. The downturn in the eurozone's industrial output reflects broader economic challenges, contrasting with the relatively stable demand for AES in sectors reliant on these products.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American market for Alkyl Ether Sulphates (AES) has witnessed a pronounced upward trajectory in prices, driven by a complex interplay of factors. One significant driver has been the unusually high temperatures experienced across the region, which have led to increased demand for surfactants in cleaning products. This surge in demand is particularly notable due to heightened outdoor activities during the season, resulting in elevated levels of dirt and grime that require effective cleaning solutions.
Adding to the price pressures, the cost of essential raw materials such as Ethylene Oxide has escalated. Plant shutdowns and production limitations of Ethylene Oxide have constrained the supply of AES throughout North America, exacerbating the upward trend in prices. These supply disruptions have been further compounded by ongoing port congestions, which have hindered export opportunities and exacerbated domestic supply-demand imbalances.
Despite these challenges, domestic demand for AES in the United States remained resilient. The warmer weather in June 2024 stimulated increased activity within the surfactant industry, reflecting consumer behaviour and economic vitality. Economic indicators, including a 0.2% rise in consumer spending according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, underscored this uptick in economic activity. Meanwhile, the stability of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index following a slight increase in April suggested ongoing inflationary pressures, with a moderate year-over-year rise through May. In conclusion, the second quarter has marked a period of significant price escalation for AES in North America, driven by robust domestic demand amid supply constraints and economic dynamics shaped by seasonal factors and raw material costs.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a mixed market situation in Alkyl ether sulphates (AES) prices across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. Throughout this period, several critical factors contributed to the downward pressure on market prices. Firstly, a significant depreciation in the prices of feedstock Ethylene Oxide, which saw a reduction of approximately 4.2% in the East Asian market, directly impacted production costs. Additionally, the depreciation in prices of another key feedstock, Fatty Alcohol, by approximately 1.2% across East Asia further facilitated lower production costs for AES. The overall supply chain remained stable, albeit with sporadic bottlenecks due to congestion in major shipping routes, such as the Strait of Malacca, which occasionally caused delayed shipments. In India, the country experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations. Despite the generally balanced supply-demand equation, the Indian market faced a cumulative price decline due to several intertwined factors. The peak summer season traditionally drives up demand in the downstream soap and detergent sectors, but this year, the market saw an excess supply due to untimely arrivals of imports, resulting in stockpiles and subsequent price drops. Comparing the second quarter of 2024 with the same quarter last year, there was a staggering 48% reduction in AES prices, underscoring the persistent bearish market sentiment. From the preceding quarter in 2024, prices saw a modest uptick of 4%, attributed to a brief recovery phase. However, a comparative analysis between the first and second halves of this quarter revealed a 4% price drop, mirroring the overarching declining trend. Concluding the quarter, the price of Alkyl ether sulfates (AES) Ex-Taloja in India stood at USD 568/MT. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 has been predominantly negative, significantly influenced by depreciating feedstock costs, supply chain fluctuations, and seasonal demand variances. This persistent decline reflects an industry grappling with overcapacity and subdued economic conditions.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, the market for Alkyl Ether Sulphates (AES) experienced a bullish trend marked by rising prices, driven by a confluence of significant factors. Despite Ethylene Oxide, a key feedstock for AES production, seeing a consistent decline in prices, the market for AES remained buoyant due to robust consumer sentiments. The warmer weather during this period amplified demand for cleaning products and surfactants, as outdoor activities increased and necessitated more effective cleaning solutions.
Internationally, there was a notable uptick in inquiries from markets such as the US and Europe, which further fuelled the upward trajectory of AES prices. This heightened demand was met with challenges stemming from increased costs of essential feedstocks like Ethylene Oxide and crude oil. These cost pressures escalated production expenses for AES manufacturers, contributing significantly to the overall rise in prices.
Moreover, global supply chain disruptions added another layer of complexity to the market dynamics. Issues such as elevated freight rates and logistical bottlenecks disrupted supply flows, leading to constrained availability of AES in the market and exacerbating the upward pressure on prices.
In summary, despite Ethylene Oxide prices declining, the second quarter of 2024 saw AES prices increase due to strong consumer demand driven by seasonal factors and heightened international interest. These demand pressures, combined with rising production costs and global supply chain disruptions, underscored the resilience and complexity of the AES market during this period.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the initial quarter of 2024, the North American Alkyl Ether Sulphates (AES) market showcased a range of trends, reflecting diverse influencing factors. The supply of AES remained steady, with no reported disruptions in production facilities. However, demand for AES remained subdued, primarily attributed to sluggish performance in downstream sectors like surfactants and personal care. Additionally, the market felt the impact of global economic deceleration and persistent inflation, leading to reduced demand from international markets in Europe and Asia. These elements, coupled with ample inventory levels, exerted downward pressure on prices.
Among North American nations, the United States observed significant AES price fluctuations during the quarter. The US market trended bearishly, propelled by decreasing costs of key feedstock materials such as Ethylene Oxide and Fatty Alcohol. The decline in Ethylene prices notably influenced the downturn in AES prices in the US. Furthermore, anticipation of prolonged high interest rates within the country dampened domestic AES demand.
In summary, the North American AES market encountered challenges in the form of subdued demand, global economic slowdowns, and declining feedstock prices throughout the first quarter of 2024. These factors collectively contributed to a bearish market sentiment, particularly evident in the United States.
Asia
During the first quarter of 2024, the Alkyl Ether Sulfates (AES) market in the APAC region experienced a period of stability in pricing. The market situation remained steady, with a balance of supply and demand. However, various factors did influence the prices during this period. Firstly, there was an abundance of low-cost cargoes available from the exporting East Asian market, leading to increased supply levels. Additionally, the demand for AES from the downstream soap and detergent industry was moderate due to the off-season caused by the peak winter season. Lastly, the expected rise in production costs resulting from the increasing crude oil prices had an impact on the pricing trend. Across Asia, the prices of AES exhibited a bearish trend during the quarter due to the high supplies from the East Asian market. Fortunately, there were no reported plant shutdowns during this period. The trend, seasonality, and correlation of prices across Asia remained stable, showing no significant changes compared to the previous quarter.
Europe
During this quarter of 2024, prices of AES across Europe witnessed mixed market situation. During the initial month January 2024, prices of AES witnessed a depreciation of approximately 3.4%. Initially the European AES market was driven by low demand from downstream surfactant industries due to the prevailing winter season. However, during the starting of February 2024 till the end of March 2024, the European AES market received cost support from rising prices of Ethylene Oxide which appreciated by 2.5% during the months of February and March 2024, and the gradual revival of demand attributed to the arrival of spring season. Significant challenges in the supply chain system were also present during this time frame, due to strikes by Union Workers which resulted in limitations in transportation and logistics. This also may have contributed to the increments in the prices of the product. Normalization of freight charges at the end of this quarter also contributed to the positive procurement sentiments amongst the merchants based overseas and eventually turned export conditions somewhat favorable, despite the persisting crisis at the Red Sea.
