For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North America Region witnessed stable prices for AL6XN, reflecting a balanced and consistent pricing environment. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. The supply chain remained robust, with consistent production levels and increase in demand. Moreover, Seasonal trends and market dynamics played a role in increasing the prices. Additionally, the correlation in price changes between different regions contributed to the overall equilibrium in pricing. The manufacturing sector also contributed to the rising demand for AL6XN, as factory orders and steel exports witnessed an increase in volumes.
In the USA, where the most significant price changes were observed, the market experienced bullish prices. Moreover, the quarter saw a 4% increase from the previous quarter, with prices remaining consistent throughout. Furthermore, the AL6XN supply in the USA decreased due to weaker import dynamics and shifts in domestic production. Additionally, On the other hand, the demand increased, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing industries, leading to a price rise in the market.
The quarter-ending price for AL6XN sheet (3 mm) DEL Houston in the USA stood at USD 26651/MT, indicating a firm and stable pricing scenario.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe Region witnessed an increase in AL6XN pricing. Several factors contributed to this upward trend. Additionally, the region experienced a decrease in supply, driven by global steel dynamics and a significant increase in demand for products. This influx of supplies puts pressure on local suppliers, leading to an increase in prices. Additionally, demand for AL6XN saw a incline, influenced by economic challenges and changing consumer behavior, particularly in sectors like construction and automotive.
Meanwhile, Germany experienced the most significant price changes in the region during the quarter. The market faced supply constraints and an increase in demand, impacting prices. Moreover, the overall trend in pricing for AL6XN in Germany reflected a consistent increase, with fluctuations observed between the first and second half of the quarter. Additionally, the market has shown resilience, with an increase in demand for AL6XN in German market, reflecting a positive shift in industrial activity.
Despite some disruptions and plant shutdowns, the quarter-ending price for Al6XN Sheet (3 mm) FD-Werdohl in Germany stood at USD 24671/MT, indicating a challenging pricing environment characterized by decreasing prices.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a challenging period for AL6XN pricing, marked by a significant decrease in prices. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including weakening demand in key sectors such as construction and automotive, oversupply in the market, and global economic slowdown. The quarter saw a notable -17% decrease from the previous quarter, reflecting the bearish market sentiment.
Meanwhile, China witnessed the most substantial price changes, with a drop between the first and second half of the quarter. Additionally, the country's steel market faced surplus production capacities, leading to increased exports at competitive prices, further declining global prices. Moreover, Furthermore, the global steel market is feeling the repercussions of China's weakening demand, leading to downward pressure on prices internationally.
The quarter-ending price for AL6XN plate Ex Shanghai in China stood at USD 14955/MT, highlighting the prevailing negative pricing environment. Despite some resilience in production levels, disruptions in mining facilities and plant shutdowns added operational complexities and cost pressures, contributing to the overall challenging market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the AL6XN market in North America experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple intertwined factors. The quarter was marked by persistent supply constraints, notably due to limited raw material availability and rising costs of stainless and alloy steel scrap. Increased shipping expenses from East Asia further compounded the supply-side pressures. These factors collectively resulted in elevated prices for AL6XN.
In the USA, the market saw the most substantial price changes, influenced by robust demand across various sectors. The automotive industry demonstrated a notable uptick in new vehicle sales, contributing to the heightened demand for AL6XN. The manufacturing sector also showed signs of recovery, with increased orders for durable goods and stainless-steel products. This surge in demand outpaced the available supply, leading to a bullish pricing environment.
Seasonal trends indicated a correlation between higher construction activities and increased AL6XN prices. The second half of Q2 witnessed a more pronounced price increase compared to the first half, reflecting a 5% rise. This trend underscores the sustained demand and limited supply dynamics at play.
The latest quarter-ending price for AL6XN sheet (3 mm) DEL Houston in the USA reached USD 26079/MT, indicating a stable yet positive pricing environment. This consistent upward trend reflects the ongoing supply-demand imbalances and the inflationary pressures on raw material and shipping costs.
Overall, Q2 2024 has been characterized by a positive pricing environment for AL6XN, driven by strong demand and persistent supply constraints. The market dynamics suggest a continued upward trajectory in prices, underpinned by robust industrial activity and limited raw material availability.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European market for AL6XN experienced considerable price increases, driven by supply constraints and escalating production costs. The limited availability of raw materials and scrap significantly impacted production volumes, thereby exerting upward pressure on prices. The market also faced challenges from rising energy costs and extended supplier delivery times, exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, heightened shipping costs due to prolonged transit times further strained the market.
Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most pronounced price changes, the situation reflects a bullish market sentiment. The German AL6XN market demonstrated a notable price inflation of 3% from the previous quarter, consistent with an overall trend of increasing prices. Seasonal factors, such as heightened demand from the construction sector and a recovering automotive industry, have played pivotal roles in influencing price dynamics. The second half of the quarter saw a continued upward trajectory, with prices rising by an additional 3% compared to the first half.
Germany's AL6XN market showcased a robust response to the evolving supply-demand dynamics, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 24823/MT for AL6XN Sheet (3 mm) FD-Werdohl. Despite the challenges posed by supply-side disruptions and escalating costs, the pricing environment has been predominantly positive, reflecting strong market demand and constrained supply. This period underscores the resilience of the German market in navigating complex economic and industrial pressures, maintaining a consistent upward price trend throughout Q2 2024.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the pricing landscape for AL6XN in the APAC region has experienced a notable downward trend, driven by several key factors. The supply chain has faced significant disruptions, including plant shutdowns and logistical challenges, which have contributed to increased shipping costs and extended delivery times. Inventory levels have remained high, adding to the supply glut and further pressuring prices downward. The demand for AL6XN has also softened due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, which have curbed industrial activities and infrastructure projects. Additionally, fluctuations in raw material costs, particularly nickel and chromium, have impacted production economics, leading to reduced market confidence and lower pricing stability.
Focusing on China, where the most pronounced price changes have occurred, the market has seen a consistent decline. Seasonal factors, such as reduced construction activities during certain periods, have exacerbated the downward pressure on prices. The overall trend has been negative, reflecting a bearish market sentiment throughout the quarter. Compared to the same period last year, prices have shown a significant decrease. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices have declined by 3%, when comparing quarter first comparing with quarter second.
The quarter-ending price for AL6XN plate Ex Shanghai in China was USD 18020/MT, underscoring the continued negative sentiment in the market. Despite some intermittent demand spikes, the pricing environment has predominantly been unfavourable, marked by persistent supply chain issues and a cautious economic climate.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
AL6XN pricing in the North America region for Q1 2024 has seen a stable to slightly positive pricing environment. Several factors have influenced market prices during this quarter. The decline in steel import permits, as shown in SIMA data from the Commerce Department, has resulted in reduced inventories of steel, including AL6XN. Despite decreasing inventories, increased demand from the automotive and infrastructure sectors has raised AL6XN prices, reflecting the balance between inventory reductions and sectoral growth.
In the USA, AL6XN prices experienced a slight decline in January due to oversupply and reduced demand. However, prices stabilized in February and March as demand slightly increased in the steel market. The automotive industry has shown higher demand for steel and nickel due to pollution reduction efforts and the growth of electric vehicles. Additionally, the higher cost of importing steel and nickel domestically, driven by high FOB prices from South Africa and issues with the Panama Canal, has contributed to premium prices for AL6XN.
Overall, the pricing environment in Q1 2024 has been moderate, with supply and demand factors influencing AL6XN prices. While there has been some stability in prices, the market remains sensitive to changes in inventory levels and sectoral demand. The latest quarter-ending price for AL6XN sheet (3 mm) DEL Houston in the USA is USD 24964/MT.
APAC
In the APAC region, the AL6XN pricing in Q1 2024 has been influenced by various factors. Overall, the market sentiment has been stable, with moderate supply and demand dynamics. In China, which has seen the maximum price changes, the AL6XN market has experienced a bearish sentiment. The supply has been moderate, with ample availability of AL6XN due to excess nickel feedstock and increased steel production capacity. However, oversupply from China and Vietnam has negatively impacted the local market, leading to lower prices. Disruptions in the Suez Canal and trade routes have also extended lead times and increased freight charges, adding to the challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers. The demand has been moderate, with reduced consumption in downstream sectors such as construction and automotive. The uncertain macroeconomic conditions and decreased trade activity in European and US markets have further dampened demand for AL6XN.The latest quarter-ending price for AL6XN plate Ex Shanghai in China is USD 19614/MT. Overall, the AL6XN pricing in the APAC region, particularly in China, has been influenced by oversupply, reduced demand, and trade disruptions. The market sentiment has been stable prices and limited fluctuations.
Europe
The AL6XN pricing in the European region for Q1 2024 has been influenced by various factors. Overall, the market sentiment has been stable, with moderate supply and demand dynamics. Germany has experienced significant price changes. In Q1 2024, the supply of AL6XN remained stable, but disruptions in the supply chain were observed. Surging nickel prices on the LME and SHFE, as well as potential sanctions on Russian exports, impacted availability. Variations in mill output and trade delays via the Suez Canal further reduced availability, driving prices up in the German spot market. Demand for AL6XN slightly rose, driven by growth in downstream industries and an uptick in euro area construction production. The shift in demand dynamics, influenced by higher nickel costs and steel needs in construction, led to increased consumption in the German automotive sector, pushing prices higher. In terms of overall trends, the price of AL6XN in Germany has seen a slight decrease in January 2024, followed by a slight increase in February and March. The pricing environment has been influenced by factors such as oversupply, slight increase in demand, and market uncertainties. The latest quarter-ending price for AL6XN in Germany is USD 23973/MT of Al6XN Sheet (3 mm) FD-Werdohl. Overall, the pricing environment for AL6XN in Q1 2024 in Germany has been positive, with prices experiencing slight fluctuations but remaining relatively stable.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the last quarter of 2023 (Q4), the pricing of AL6XN in the North America region, specifically in the USA, has shown a stable price trend. Initially, in October, AL6XN prices in the US spot market showed a rising trend due to strong demand from the chemical and automotive industries amidst a shortage of upstream materials like Steel Scraps and Nickel.
US bond yields rose, indicating a robust economy, while the EU and US failed to resolve a steel dispute. Metallurgical coke prices in India and China increased, impacting AL6XN inventory levels. In November, AL6XN prices declined as production rates rose, and Outokumpu announced an expansion, increasing supply.
December saw AL6XN prices persisted plunging trend due to increased inventory and decreased downstream demand. Global Nickel mining grew, aided by the progress in the Minnesota Copper-Nickel Mining project. Cheaper Chinese imports prompted adjustments in US AL6XN industries. The latest price for AL6XN sheet (3 mm) DEL Houston in the USA for the fourth quarter of 2024 settled at USD 24260/MT.
Asia-Pacific
The fourth quarter of 2023 saw an overall stability in market trends for the AL6XN market in the APAC region. In the Chinese spot market, AL6XN prices initially declined due to reduced overseas demand, triggered by Anti-dumping measures from the overseas US and Europe. Uncertain Steel scrap and Nickel supply intensified pressure. Steelmakers sought iron ore due to scarce steel scrap, and Chinese iron ore stocks hit a 7-year low. Feedstock such as metallurgical coke prices rose in India and China. US Anti-dumping measures and Chinese surplus led to AL6XN price reduction. In the last quarter, AL6XN prices fell amid increased Nickel supply and lower consumption. Recycled AL6XN proved cost-effective over high-grade NPI. In mid-Q4, the surplus coal inventory level lowered production costs, but climate protests impacted Australian coal. Declining Nickel prices and increased production contributed to the downtrend. December saw stable AL6XN prices in China, influenced by reduced global demand. A Nickel supply surge, driven by global mining and events like a Chinese plant blast, affected AL6XN prices. High-grade NPI became cost-effective. Reduced consumption during holidays, weather, and Red Sea trade disruptions affected AL6XN demand. Lowered demand persisted during winter holidays, impacting US and European orders, with future trends tied to trade and macroeconomic factors. The ripple effect of these factors resulted in a stable price trend for AL6XN across the Chinese spot market. The latest price of AL6XN plate Ex Shanghai in China for the last quarter is USD 19754/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the AL6XN market in Europe showed a rising trend due to various factors. Initially, there was a surge in demand from downstream industries such as the oil and gas piping sector, leading to a significant increase in AL6XN prices. This spike in demand can be attributed to the abundance of oil and gas supplies, as major oil-producing nations implemented measures to boost supply. Additionally, the European Central Bank's decision to increase its interest rate resulted in heightened buying activity among local purchasers, further boosting the demand for AL6XN. Furthermore, the supply of the raw material Nickel remained lower during this quarter, both domestically and internationally, amidst lower extraction rates from major mining countries. This shortage in Nickel supply exerted upward pressure on AL6XN prices. The production of Nickel was particularly sluggish in Russia, with Nornickel lowering its global nickel surplus estimate for the last quarter. The German spot market saw a notable increase in AL6XN prices in the ending of Q4, driven by increased demand from downstream industries and enhanced supply from major oil-producing nations. The lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas supplies also positively impacted the German piping market. In summary, the AL6XN market in Europe thrived in the fourth quarter of 2023, with increasing demand from downstream industries and a decrease in the supply of raw materials. material Nickel. Germany, in particular, experienced a decline in AL6XN prices due to reduced demand and supply challenges. The latest price for AL6XN Sheet (3 mm) FD-Werdohl in Germany in the last quarter is USD 23690/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the third quarter, the price of AL6XN increased throughout the month, indicating an optimistic market trend for AL6XN in the USA. Meanwhile, AL6XN prices in the USA initially experienced a downward trend in July due to rising local inventories and increased raw material costs. Falling pig iron ore prices and weakened cost-bearing capacity, alongside rising inventories, deterred bulk orders. The Federal Reserve's rate hike aimed to curb inflation and further discouraged buyers. In contrast, June saw AL6XN prices rise globally as nickel costs surged. The US government's efforts to boost market sentiment supported the industry. AL6XN manufacturers maintained high base prices, and local mills increased their offers to cover rising production costs. Long-term growth was anticipated in the US SAL6XN market, attracting sizable orders. Labor issues eased in late July, but AL6XN stocks remained low due to production lagging behind demand. The price of nickel feedstock continued to rise, leading to higher alloy surcharges at US AL6XN factories. Government agreements further stimulated demand, especially in the defense sector. Overall, AL6XN prices exhibited fluctuation, influenced by raw material costs, government policies, and demand fluctuations across various industries.
Asia-Pacific
In the third quarter of 2023, China witnessed a consistent and pronounced increase in the price of AL6XN. In July, increased orders further supported elevated AL6XN prices, while supply constraints and robust demand from the automobile and electric vehicle industries sustained the bullish market. This upward trajectory gained momentum in August, driven by several critical factors. Firstly, the spike in Nickel prices, a key component in AL6XN production, played a pivotal role in the cost surge. This increase was exacerbated by booming demand from the automotive industry, especially in the electric vehicle sector, where major companies like BYD, Geely, and SAIC reported substantial profits. The suspension of supply quotas from Indonesia, a significant Nickel producer, further constrained global Nickel supply, bolstering the cost of AL6XN production in China. Domestically, AL6XN supply increased, with companies like Huzhou Jiuli Stainless Steel Material Co. and Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech Metals Co. expanding production. However, inventory levels in the Chinese spot market decreased due to surging demand. The automotive industry continued its growth, with a 50% year-on-year increase in car sales, leading to substantial orders for AL6XN. The price hike persisted into the second half of 2023, driven by rising Nickel prices and strong demand from the battery sector. Local mills maintained high base prices, anticipating profits and reacting to market sentiment.
Europe
The price of AL6XN in Germany has been steadily increasing due to a combination of factors. Firstly, the surge in Nickel prices has played a significant role, as AL6XN contains Nickel and is affected by its price fluctuations. Additionally, the local inventory level in the German spot market has decreased, partly due to government plans to upgrade production units, which may have temporarily impacted supply. The supply of Nickel from overseas Indonesian mines has dwindled due to government restrictions on export quotas. This scarcity of Nickel has contributed to the rising prices of AL6XN. Moreover, the expansion of railway lines and the growth of the electric vehicle sector have boosted the demand for AL6XN in Germany. Economic stability in the country has led to large orders from buyers. Maintenance shutdowns at several German mills have further reduced the inventory of AL6XN. Favorable government policies and strong demand in the automotive industry, especially for electric vehicles, have kept the market buoyant. The downstream industries, including railways and housing, are expected to benefit from government initiatives. Despite supply disruptions, local buyers have placed substantial orders, and deals with local governments have bolstered demand. The positive market sentiment in July was driven by increased Nickel prices and rising demand from the battery and combustion engine sectors. The market's bullish trend is expected to persist, supported by the higher base prices set by local mills and ongoing strong demand.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, the US AL6XN Sheet initially uplifted in April and then showed a declining trend in the H2 of the second quarter. In April, the increase in the price of feedstock Nickel in the global market provided cost support to produce AL6XN. The domestic downstream demand was high, which kept the consumption rate on a better end. There was significant growth in the service sector, and thus they were able to provide services at higher offer prices due to increased market demands. The Consumer Price Index was on a higher edge at the start of the Quarter due to healthy purchasing activity, denoting a good economic start in the second quarter. In the H2 of the second quarter, the prices declined a bit, majorly due to the debt crisis and rising inflation rate. The stable US economic structure crumbled, and the market situation got pessimistic. The hike in interest rate, coupled with rising living costs and plunging household savings, reduced the purchasing power of consumers and led to declining demand for AL6XN Sheet in the US spot market. In June, the price of the AL6XN Sheet rebounded as the deal signed by the US government extended the debt for two more years, which resulted in the stability of US economic conditions. The various projects signed by the US government increased the downstream demand for AL6XN at the end of the second quarter. The price for AL6XN Sheet for DEL-Houston (USA) settled at USD 24632/MT in the quarter ending June 2023.
Asia-Pacific
In China, the price of AL6XN sheets was initially rising at the beginning of the second quarter and then continuously declined through May and June. In April, the prices rose as the feedstock Nickel prices increased, which provided strong cost support in the production of AL6XN Sheets in the Chinese spot market. The downstream demand from the local as well as overseas industry was on a higher edge. The suppliers made a controlled shipment that kept the AL6XN plate prices up in April. In the latter half of the second quarter, the supply level increased amid weak downstream demand, leading to a decrease in AL6XN price in the Chinese spot market. The supply of feedstock Nickel increased as the overseas Indonesian mines increased the extraction and production rate. The Chinese AL6XN manufacturers were buying a large amount of Indonesian Nickel Pig Iron, as the Pig iron and Iron ore raw material were present in abundance in the Global market in surplus at a lower price. The production rate increased in the local Chinese mills as POSCO, a major stainless-steel manufacturer, increased its production. In the quarter ending, the demand got lower from the downstream industries amid the arrival of the Chinese Dragon Boat Festival. The ripple effect of the declining global economy coupled with the increased supply led to the settling of the price of the AL6XN Sheet for Ex-Shanghai (China) at USD 16203/MT for the quarter ending June 2023.
Europe
The German AL6XN Sheet prices initially grew and then plunged in the second quarter of 2023. In April, the rising price of feedstock Nickel helped in providing strong cost support for producing AL6XN in the German mills. The demand from the local downstream automobile sector increased as the electric vehicle sales were on a higher edge. This kept the AL6XN prices high in April in the German spot market. In the latter half of the second quarter, the global economic condition crumbled, and the inflation rate rose, creating a pessimistic market sentiment from the buyer’s side. The production rate from the local mills increased amid a decline in downstream demand leading to a decline in AL6XN price. The AL6XN Sheet was available in the surplus amount at a cheaper rate from the overseas Chinese manufacturers, which put downward pressure on the German-originated AL6XN in the local and overseas markets. The mills were forced to sell at a lower price to sustain the competitive Global market condition. The ripple effect of the declining global economy coupled with the increased supply led to the settling of the price of the AL6XN Sheet for FD-Werdohl (Germany) at USD 23010/MT for the quarter ending June 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In Q1 of 2023, AL6XN plate prices in the US market remained strong due to increasing offers from domestic mills and extended lead times. Market players reported a "short cycle" due to seasonality and steel restocking, resulting in higher prices and more orders. Steel mills have successfully raised flat steel spot offers since November, despite less than 75% utilization rates since mid-October, tight service center inventories, and elevated raw material prices. Service centers noted that mills were hesitant to permit bookings on contracts exceeding maximum volumes in March, likely due to rising interest rates and a wait-and-see attitude among clients. As a result, the price of the Al6XN Sheet (3 mm) for Ex Houston was assessed at USD 24482/MT.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 of 2023, the Al6XN prices in the Chinese market experienced a decline in market sentiment due to subdued downstream inquiries and a firm availability of the product in the regional market. Output reduction for maintenance by NPI factories and steel mills in January, coupled with weak spot transactions and stable transaction prices ahead of the Chinese New Year, contributed to a downtick in the price trend in February and March. The social inventory of raw material nickel increased slightly in February due to increased supply and decreased demand, leading to a decrease in Al6XN prices. Although quotes from sellers remained unchanged, purchase prices from mills decreased slightly, and processing facilities made cautious purchases despite low order volumes. Stainless steel mills are shipping more coils than usual due to slack orders, resulting in decreased costs. Some traders reduced their prices to ship due to large market inventories, causing the traded price to keep falling. As a result, the Al6XN plate prices for Ex Shanghai settled at USD 17260/MT.
Europe
During Q1 of 2023, the AL6XN plate prices in the European market remained stable due to a balanced supply-demand outlook. Market players noted an increase in AL6XN prices in January due to lower energy costs, rising raw material prices, and increased demand from service centers and distributors after the Christmas holiday. EU stainless steel producers communicated increased alloy surcharges in February and March, leading to a surge in wholesale AL6XN prices in early February. However, the restart of furnaces in several factories in Europe by the end of the quarter led to a rise in raw material consumption, and market participants remained optimistic. Rising interest rates and a wait-and-see attitude among clients were cited as factors weighing on demand. As a result, the Al6XN Sheet (3 mm) prices for Ex Werdohl settled at USD 24411/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the AL6XN price showcased a declining trend in the US market with mixed LME nickel prices amid recessionary fears that undermined market sentiment. Many market participants believed in mid-Q4 that a potential strike would prevent steelmakers from cutting production further. However, the US administration signed a joint resolution requiring railroad companies and their unions to raise worker wages. Thus, this quarter witnessed higher inventories and limited demand. Mills had already attempted to keep pilled-up stocks under control, despite an expected rebound in finished steel and scrap markets in the first quarter of 2023. Additionally, nickel producers had limited product availability, which prompted mills to rush for nickel supplies. Even consumers who had been absent from the market returned with aggressive nickel purchasing prices. With the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in mid-December, AL6XN demand fell and then lagged for the remainder of the year. As a ripple effect, the Al6XN sheet (3 mm) prices for Ex Houston and FOB Texas settled at USD 23500/MT and USD 23640/MT.
Asia Pacific
AL6XN prices in the Chinese market edged downward in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to a mixed demand outlook and fluctuating raw material costs. Compared with the past quarter, production activity surged in November against the traditional trend, boosting AL6XN demand. In November, the market began to enter the off-season, and the market's potential adverse effects were also emerging, including concern about excess inventories due to higher stainless-steel output. December was the center of the off-season, and this year's terminal demand forced the production to shrink significantly. However, lower prices, limited energy supplies, and weak demand due to adverse domestic conditions decreased domestic AL6XN production. In the fourth quarter, many steel mills announced production reductions, along with the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation. Some businesses prepared goods before the upcoming inquiries in 2023, which boosted demand to a certain extent in December. As a ripple effect, the AL6XN plate prices for Ex Shanghai and FOB Shanghai settled at USD 18400/MT and USD 18440/MT, respectively.
Europe
In the German market, the AL6XN plate prices showcased a downward trend in the fourth quarter of 2022 amidst geopolitical and energy risks, particularly in Europe, persisting in threatening the recessionary backdrop. Amid the disruption to supply chains at the start of Q2 2022 and the accompanying price jump, distributors built up stocks as much as possible to secure volumes and lock in prices before they climbed any further. However, AL6XN distributors started restocking in mid-November, but prices remained flat amid persistently slow demand. The restocking had not involved large tonnages, and the increased demand from distributors had not affected prices. As per market players, higher inventories and a poor demand outlook weighed on the market, so most European stainless mills initiated some production cuts. Thus, at the end of Q4 2022, the discussions of Al6XN Sheet (3 mm) prices for Ex Werdohl (Germany) and FOB Hamburg (Germany) settled at USD 24360/MT and USD 24850/MT, respectively.
For The Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter of 2022, the US AL6XN prices stagnated due to the persistent oversupply in the market amidst a lack of more permanent production cuts aimed at reducing volumes. As per market players, AL6XN prices have fallen as service centers have held off on purchasing due to weak consumer demand, which has been hampered by labor and part shortages. Fears that the United States is already in or on the verge of a recession have also reduced purchases. This includes some service centers, typically steel buyers because falling flat-rolled prices have devalued their existing inventory. Additionally, integrated steelmaker US Steel has idled its No. 8 blast furnace at its Gary Works steel mill in Indiana. Slovakia-based US Steel Kosice idled blast furnace two at its Slovakian site on 4 September for a 60-day stoppage and will continue to adjust its maintenance schedules in line with customer demand. The outages, mainly for maintenance, will run from September through November, according to current plans by US-based steelmakers and market participants. As a ripple effect, the Al6XN sheet (3 mm) prices for Ex Texas (USA) settled at USD 27200/MT in September.
Asia Pacific
AL6XN prices fell in the Asia Pacific during the third quarter of 2022 due to fluctuating raw material costs amidst a lack of pressure on operating capacity and lower input cost prices. Despite low demand and limited transactions in the domestic market, steelmakers have not reduced capacity utilization. Lackluster demand outlook, a build-up of inventories, and a decrease in iron ore prices, along with the looming threat of interruptions in China brought on by COVID and the continuous harm to exports, are all dampening sentiment. According to steel manufacturers, steel prices are falling in most domestic markets because traders are forced to sell their stockpiles. According to market participants, raw material prices, such as coking coal and iron ore, have also fallen. Despite volatile LME nickel prices, finished stainless steel prices in India remained stable during the third quarter due to stagnant demand from the railways, auto, and rice mill segments. Mills attributes the price decrease to weak domestic and export inquiries and slow trade buying. Thus, the prices of Al6XN plate (3 mm) for Ex Mumbai (India) settled at INR 1448000/MT.
Europe
In the European market, the AL6XN prices plunged during the third quarter of 2022 as buyers were already restocked, though booked volumes have been lower than usual, and they are expected to remain inactive until September. This quarter, a German steelmaker struck lower-priced deals to fill order books. Transaction prices, which have recently followed a similar trend to base prices, were assessed lower due to weak demand and oversupply. The supply chain has become less stressed, and the rate of steel price increases has begun to slow. However, the resulting disruption to energy markets is still causing price volatility, so careful planning is recommended to mitigate risks. This quarter, European steel producers began drastically reducing output, with ArcelorMittal leading the way, recently idling five blast furnaces across its European assets. Thus, the discussion of Al6XN plate (3 mm) prices for Ex Werdohl (Germany) in September settled at USD 25292/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Al6XN Plate prices in the US market increased during the second quarter of 2022 due to increased concerns about rising geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, and growing inflationary pressures. According to market participants, the rate of overall factory growth accelerated for the third month. It was the fastest since September, owing to speedier production expansion, a softer seller performance decline, and a series-record drift in pre-production inventories. Although delivery times lengthened further, suppliers' severe material and capacity shortages led to sharper cost and selling price increases. Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, demand expanded as the New Orders Index grew. Buyers are still confronting higher transportation charges and logistical bottlenecks. Mills have announced price increases to become more competitive with imports along with increases in freight rates as even imports are facing port congestion and higher trucking costs from the ports.
Asia Pacific
In the Asian market, the AL6XN Plate prices witnessed mixed sentiments due to fluctuating raw material prices. In May and June, AL6XN Plate prices surged, and rising nickel prices prompted a rise in Stainless Steel prices, but due to Stainless Steel's weak fundamentals and demand and supply lines, prices remained rangebound. Market participants claim that the coking coal they purchased in April will be used in the April-May production. As a result, production costs are likely to peak in May-June. Furthermore, the Indian government-imposed duties on finished flat and long steel and iron ore to reduce exports and shift mills' focus to the domestic market. Tariffs on coal and ferroalloy imports have also been reduced to contain rising domestic steel prices and lower production costs. Prices fell in June due to lower raw material costs and lower demand. Flawed demand, piled-up inventory, and a drop in iron-ore expenses, combined with the looming overhang of COVID-led disruptions in China and the ongoing hit to exports, are weighing on sentiment.
Europe
In the European market, the AL6XN Plate prices witnessed mixed sentiments. In April, the Russia-Ukraine war and its repercussions kept the prices soaring. However, due to low manufacturing demand and high inventories, AL6XN Plate prices fell in June. Market players cite that the augmented stocks throughout the supply chain are because of the initial panic buying activity. Fearing further price erosion, service centers and distributors resisted purchasing. Manufacturers have continued to suffer as a result of decreased downstream demand. Declining purchasing activity has further shrunk the June offer book. Meanwhile, to attract new customers, the mills reduced their quotation prices. However, long delivery times, the risk of tariffs, and capacity shortages at local ports keep the interest limited. Other factors impacting the market's interest are uncertain demand and price directions. However, the summer maintenance period is swiftly approaching. Producers are raising their outages to control production output by market demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The AL6XN prices showcased a surging trend in the US market during the first quarter of 2022. According to market participants, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has driven market panic about supply shortages, resulting in soaring raw material prices, especially iron ore and coking coal. Increasing procurement risk, financial constraints, port blockades, growing uncertainty about availability, and rising safety and security concerns are among the significant factors driving sentiment in commodity markets worldwide. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and its repercussions on raw materials and logistics have significantly impacted supply and demand-side movements. However, market participants opted to wait and watch the approach until further clarification of the price trend.
Asia Pacific
In Asian countries, AL6XN Plate prices increased during the first quarter of 2022 due to the increased demand. Rising raw materials and energy prices are primarily driving this upward trend. Amidst this, the extended hostilities between Eastern European nations further increased the cost pressure and inflation rate in the global market, prompting raw material prices to skyrocket. Furthermore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and repercussions over input materials have impacted the supply-demand dynamics, raw material costs, and the global economy, resulting in a stretched supply chain. However, the robust demand for AL6XN from the downstream sectors kept the market sentiment for AL6XN bullish.
Europe
During Q1 of 2022, the AL6XN prices witnessed bullish market sentiments owing to the robust demand from end-users amidst the rising energy prices. Since 2020, energy and fuel prices have been surging, further aggravating increased inflationary pressure. Amidst this, the Russia-Ukraine aftermath, and its repercussions, particularly on raw materials and logistics, resulted in rising inflationary pressures, rising average purchase prices, and output charges. This conflict has severely impacted supply and demand-side movements and caused seller delivery times to lengthen to a near-record high. However, limited transactions and dull market conditions in the global market, with market participants adopting a wait-and-watch outlook for further price trends.
