For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
Throughout Q4 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in North America witnessed a notable decline in prices, driven by several key factors such as reduced feedstock Propylene costs. Furthermore, the demand for Acrylic Acid from downstream sectors like Coating and Construction remained low and was balanced out by ample inventory levels of the commodity in the storage units. Moreover, the hurricane season caused disruption in production and supply chains, further dampening market activity.
Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut meant to boost consumer sentiment, market participants remained cautious due to factors like the ILA strike, Trump's election victory, and overall economic uncertainty which continued to shift the market sentiments downwards. Additionally, low liquidity and a lack of new orders throughout the quarter highlighted ongoing struggles. Hence, these factors combined and showcased persistent bearishness in its trend.
The overall trend in the US reflected the broader North American market, with prices declining by 2.6% compared to the previous quarter, indicating a sustained negative pricing trend.
APAC
During Q4 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in Japan exhibited a bullish trend despite fluctuating production costs attributed to fluctuating feedstock Propylene prices. Bullishness was maintained as it was driven by external economic factors that outweighed the fluctuation in raw material costs. Japan faced significant challenges, including a high number of bankruptcies, labor shortages, and rising debt-servicing costs following interest rate hikes. The ongoing structural labor shortage and disruptions caused by earthquakes further impacted market sentiments. Furthermore, slight improvements in the Construction and Real Estate sectors contributed to a price increase towards the end of November. The demand for Acrylic Acid from downstream Coating and Construction enterprises showed a slight incline, supported by increased sales to emerging markets, particularly India. Despite a positive shift in business sentiment, the outlook remained uncertain due to potential global trade disruptions linked to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. Market participants adjusted their ex-quotations upward to reflect improved market dynamics, highlighting the complex interplay of economic, political, and environmental factors influencing the Acrylic Acid market in Japan during this period.
Europe
Throughout Q4 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in Europe exhibited a bearish trend, driven by declining production costs and weak demand from downstream sectors such as Coating and Construction. The decrease in feedstock Propylene prices played a significant role in reducing manufacturing expenses. Despite a slight easing in the rate of contraction within the construction industry, the sector continued to face challenges, including a sharp decline in new orders and growing pessimism among firms. This negative outlook led to further job cuts and reduced demand for construction-related materials. Market participants offered discounts to clear excess inventory however, eroded consumer confidence and tight financial conditions continued to suppress demand. External factors like labor shortages, heightened market uncertainty, and elevated costs further exacerbated market sentiment. New orders remained low, and existing inventory levels were sufficient to meet the subdued demand. Additional challenges, such as rail freight disruptions and a deteriorating economic outlook, compounded the bearish sentiment within the market. Despite efforts to counteract weakening inflation through interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, the overall market sentiment for Acrylic Acid in Europe remained cautious and bearish.
MEA
Throughout Q4 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in Saudi Arabia remained stable, witnessing only an incline of 0.15% in comparison to the previous quarters. The demand, particularly from downstream Coating and Construction sectors, was consistently moderate, ensuring that available inventory levels met the market needs satisfactorily. The country’s significant economic diversification efforts, including over $1.3 trillion in real estate and infrastructure projects under Vision 2030, have fortified the construction sector, driving consistent demand for construction materials. Although there was a slight rise in Propylene prices in early November, market stability persisted due to adequate inventory levels. Further bolstered by solid domestic demand, increased new orders, and sustained growth in employment within the sector, the Acrylic Acid market reflected positive business sentiment. Purchasing activity in October witnessed an uptick, and inventories rose sharply, maintaining sufficient stock levels. The culmination of stable production costs, balanced supply-demand dynamics, and ongoing infrastructure development resulted in a resilient and bullish market outlook for Acrylic Acid in Saudi Arabia by the end of the quarter.
South America
Throughout Q4 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in Brazil continued to showcase bearishness in its trend. This trend was primarily driven by declining production costs due to lower feedstock Propylene prices. Along with the reduced production cost, the subdued demand from downstream sectors, particularly Coating and Construction, and the declining import cost resulted in bearish market sentiments. These sectors faced weak demand, low liquidity, and significant challenges such as Hurricane Milton, labor disruptions due to the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike, and persistent economic uncertainties. This strike, which began on October 1st, affected major ports, exacerbating supply chain issues and inflationary pressures. Although the strike could have driven supply constraints and procurement urgency, low downstream sector demand neutralized this effect. Business confidence witnessed a decline, leading market players to scale back activities and lower their quotations. Despite infrastructure development initiatives such as expanding the Port of Santos, weak investor sentiment and high interest rates remained significant hurdles. The cautious market behavior, compounded by Donald Trump’s presidential victory, further influenced market dynamics. Therefore, despite these challenges, the Acrylic Acid market in Brazil exhibited resilience, with stabilized new orders and sufficient inventory levels balancing ongoing demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout Q3 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in North America witnessed a period of declining prices, influenced by several key factors. The significant decrease in market prices can be attributed to a combination of factors such as reduced demand from downstream sectors, particularly in the Coating and Construction industries. This decreased demand led to surplus inventory levels, creating a supply-demand imbalance that exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the fluctuations in feedstock prices, particularly Propylene, contributed to the overall decrease in production costs, further impacting the pricing trends of Acrylic Acid.
In Mexico, the market experienced the most significant price changes during this quarter. The overall trend in Mexico reflected the broader North American market, with prices declining by 3% compared to the same quarter last year. Within Q3 2024, Mexico witnessed a further decrease of 3% from the previous quarter, indicating a sustained negative pricing trend.
The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a decrease of 1%, highlighting a consistent downward trajectory in pricing. The quarter-ending price in Mexico stood at USD 1495/MT of Acrylic Acid CFR Manzanillo, emphasizing the prevalent negative sentiment in the pricing environment.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in the APAC region witnessed a period of inclining prices, influenced by several key factors. The market experienced a surge in demand from key downstream sectors such as Coating and Construction, leading to insufficient inventories resulting in the upward pressure on prices. In Japan, the market experienced the most significant price changes during this quarter. Amid this shortage, business confidence remained high, fueled by expectations of a broad recovery in both domestic and global demand. In response, significant manufacturing units ramped up production and trading activities to close the supply gap. Market players capitalized on this situation by increasing their ex-quotations, thereby enhancing their profit margins. Despite the decline in the feedstock Propylene market during this quarter, the Acrylic Acid market witnessed a rise due to the increased demand from the downstream sectors. The overall trend in Japan reflected bearishness, however, the prices remained unchanged in comparison to the same quarter last year.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region experienced a challenging period for Acrylic Acid pricing, marked by a significant decline in market prices. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including weak demand from downstream sectors such as Coating and Construction due to ongoing economic uncertainties and reduced consumer spending power. Additionally, declining production costs resulting from lower feedstock prices, particularly Propylene, further pressured Acrylic Acid prices downwards. These combined factors created a bearish sentiment in the market, leading to stable or decreasing prices throughout the quarter. France, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. The overall trends in the country mirrored those of the broader European market, with a focus on stability amidst decreasing prices. The correlation in price changes between France and the rest of Europe was evident, showcasing a cohesive market environment. Compared to the same quarter last year, Acrylic Acid prices in Q3 2024 were down by 5%, indicating a consistent downward trajectory. Furthermore, the quarter-on-quarter percentage change in 2024 stood at -8%, highlighting the continued negative trend. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a further decline of -6%.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in the MEA region experienced an upward trend in pricing, with notable fluctuations observed in Saudi Arabia. The market dynamics were primarily influenced by increasing demand from downstream sectors, particularly in construction and coatings, which drove prices higher. This surge in demand was fueled by major infrastructure projects like the construction of a significant airport, indicating robust economic activity. Additionally, increased production costs, attributed to a slight rise in the feedstock prices, contributed to the positive pricing environment. Saudi Arabia, witnessing the most significant price changes in the region, showcased a 1% increase from the previous quarter. The market displayed a consistent upward trend throughout the quarter, with prices steadily rising. Notably, the second half of the quarter recorded a 1% price increase compared to the first half, indicating sustained positive momentum. The quarter concluded with Acrylic Acid priced at USD 920/MT FOB Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, reflecting a stable and increasingly positive pricing environment.
South America
In Q3 2024, the South American region witnessed a downward trend in Acrylic Acid pricing, with Brazil experiencing the most significant price fluctuations. Various factors contributed to the market's decreasing prices, including falling production costs driven by lower propylene prices. Reduced demand from downstream sectors such as coating and construction further impacted prices, as existing inventory levels met the subdued market requirements. This quarter saw a 3% decrease from the same period last year, indicating a sustained decline in pricing dynamics. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices dropped by 3%, reflecting continued market challenges. Additionally, a comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 1% decrease, underlining the persistent negative trend in pricing. The quarter-ending price of Acrylic Acid in Brazil stood at USD 1505/MT (CFR Santos), signifying a stable but bearish pricing environment throughout the quarter. The overall sentiment in the market remained negative, characterized by ongoing price declines and challenging market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
During Q2 2024, the North American Acrylic Acid market experienced a consistent downward trend in prices, driven primarily by a combination of factors that collectively exerted bearish pressure on the market. Despite the upstream markets witnessing increases in crude oil and propylene prices, which typically elevate production costs, the overarching sentiment was dominated by ample inventory levels and subdued demand from key downstream sectors such as Coating and Construction. This surplus in supply, amidst waning consumption, led to a notable softening of prices across the region.
Focusing on the USA, where the most significant price changes were observed, the overall trend reflected a negative pricing environment. The seasonality effects, which often bring fluctuations, were overshadowed by the persistent oversupply and slackened demand affected by the high inflation. This quarter witnessed a 2% decline from the same quarter last year, signaling a more pronounced bearish market compared to the relatively stable previous quarter, which recorded a 0% change. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter further accentuated this decline, with a noted decrease of 4%.
Overall, the pricing environment in the USA for Acrylic Acid during Q2 2024 has been decidedly negative, reflecting the compounded impact of high inventory levels, cautious procurement from downstream sectors, and general market bearishness.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in the APAC region experienced an upward trend in prices. This quarter witnessed Acrylic Acid prices influenced significantly by several key factors. The primary drivers included a surge in feedstock Propylene prices, enhanced demand from downstream industries such as Paints and Coatings, and the existing inventory levels. The increased operational costs for Acrylic Acid production, primarily driven by rising energy prices, also played a crucial role. Moreover, supply chain disruptions, partially due to regional festive weeks, contributed to reduced availability, further supporting the price increase. Consequently, market participants maintained a cautious approach, ensuring stable supply in the face of rising costs. Focusing on Japan, this quarter witnessed the most notable price changes within the APAC region. Overall trends were marked by an upward pricing momentum, influenced by seasonality and an increase in manufacturing activities post-festive periods. The correlation between rising feedstock prices and Acrylic Acid was evident, with the latter's costs responding sensitively to changes in upstream markets. Despite a significant -21% drop in prices compared to the same quarter last year, the quarter-over-quarter increase was recorded at a modest 1%. When comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, prices also rose by 1%, indicating a consistent upward sentiment. The pricing environment in Japan for Acrylic Acid in Q2 2024 has been positive. This highlights an overall stable yet increasing market trend despite the historical year-on-year decline. The market's resilience amidst fluctuating upstream costs and demand-supply dynamics underscores the strategic balancing by market players to sustain profitability and meet growing demand efficiently.
Europe
The Acrylic Acid market in the Europe region experienced a challenging Q2 2024, with prices persistently declining due to several significant factors. The primary cause of the bearish market sentiment was the subdued demand from the downstream Coating and Construction sectors, which failed to invigorate despite the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate cut aimed at stimulating economic activity. Additionally, existing high inventory levels further pressured the market, promoting a cautious approach among market participants who adjusted production rates and trading activities to align with the tepid demand. The stable yet low activity in these sectors underscored the lackluster consumption of Acrylic Acid, thereby fostering a negative pricing environment. Germany, which exhibited the most pronounced price changes within the region, saw a notable decline in Acrylic Acid prices. Overall trends indicate that the bearish sentiment was exacerbated by seasonality factors, where typical seasonal demand upticks were absent, leading to a consistent downward trajectory. The correlation between inventory overhang and reduced downstream activity created a compounded effect, driving prices down by 3% compared to the same quarter last year. From the previous quarter in 2024, the prices declined by 1%, reflecting a steady but persistent downtick. A comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter showed a further decrease of 3%, highlighting sustained bearish pressures.
MEA
During Q2 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in the MEA region experienced a period of stability, with prices remaining relatively unchanged. The quarter was characterized by a balance between supply and demand, driven by consistent production costs and moderate growth in downstream sectors such as Construction and Coatings. The equilibrium in the market was maintained through strategic procurement and inventory management, resulting in a stable pricing environment. Despite consistent production costs, ongoing competitive tensions among market players contributed to the lack of significant price fluctuations. In Saudi Arabia, the pricing trends of Acrylic Acid mirrored those of the broader MEA region, albeit with more pronounced changes. The Saudi Arabian market saw a notable price increase towards the end of the quarter. This was primarily due to heightened demand from the Construction sector and efforts to clear backlogs, which, coupled with moderate export gains, drove the market dynamics. The overall price trend in Saudi Arabia reflected a 2% increase from the previous quarter, stabilizing after an earlier decline of -32% from the same quarter the previous year. Seasonality had minimal impact on price changes, with the difference between the first and second halves of the quarter recorded at 0%. This stability indicates that the pricing environment has neither been overly positive nor negative but rather consistently stable.
South America
During Q2, the South American Acrylic Acid market showcased a mixed trend. In H1 of Q2, the market experienced an incline in their trend due to the supply deficiency which was inadequate to meet the demand from the downstream Construction sector including the Paint and Coating sector. Additionally, the supply chain was disrupted due to the drought in the Panama Canal resulting in delayed supplies from the US market to the Brazilian market. However, the situation for the Panama Canal was analyzed to be getting better due to the traditional rainy season. However, in H2 of Q2, the market witnessed bearishness which happened despite an increase in production costs, driven by rising prices in the upstream Propylene market. The primary reason for this decline in Acrylic Acid prices is the reduced demand from the downstream coating and construction sectors. These sectors have been significantly impacted by severe flooding in Southern Brazil, affecting more than 95% of the region. The flooding has disrupted normal activities and operations in these sectors, leading to a lower demand for Acrylic Acid. As the impact of the flooding continues, market activities remain subdued, further contributing to the decreased demand from the downstream sectors despite higher production costs.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in North America experienced positive growth. The downstream Paint and Coating sectors experienced an increase in their demand which led to the increased consumption rate of the inventory levels. The increase in the production cost of the commodity was due to the increase in the prices of the upstream Propylene and Crude Oil markets.
Therefore, an incline in the trade inflows from the US market to the Mexican market was made to meet the rising demand from the downstream Paint and Coating sectors and ultimately followed the trend of the product in the US market. Based on the results of the National Survey of Construction Companies (ENEC) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), construction related to transportation and urbanization dropped 5.9% monthly, after rising by 4.5% in December.
The bullishness in the market situation, provided market players an opportunity to enhance their marginal profits by raising their ex-quotations. This surge indicated a significant movement of goods within these markets during the period. With market conditions favoring Acrylic Acid, purchasers chose to procure large quantities to meet the escalating demand from downstream Paint and Coating sectors.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in the APAC region experienced a mixed scenario. The market continued to be influenced by the downstream Paint and Coating sector, which had a significant impact on product prices. With low demand from this sector, inventories remained sufficient, potentially leading to a decline in the price trend. However, any increase in demand from the Paint and Coating sector could result in a price hike. The prices of upstream Crude Oil and Propylene also played a role in determining the prices of Acrylic Acid. Any fluctuations in these prices could have a direct impact on the market. Japan, in particular, saw a notable change in prices during this quarter. There was a decrease of -11% in prices from the previous quarter. Despite this decrease, the market was supported by ample inventories to meet the demands of the downstream Construction sector, ensuring smooth supply chain operations. It is worth mentioning that the Bank of Japan's decision to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time in 17 years also influenced the market. However, at the end of Q1, a slight rise in the price trend of Acrylic Acid was observed due to the surge in prices of Acrylic Acid which was attributed to a disruption in the balance between supply and demand, as existing inventories fell short of meeting the increased demand from downstream Paint and Coating sectors. To tackle this spike in demand for Acrylic Acid, production rates were ramped up, leading to heightened trading activities both domestically among major manufacturing units and internationally.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 in the European region witnessed several significant factors that influenced the Acrylic Acid market. Market conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and fluctuations in raw material prices all played a role in shaping the pricing of Acrylic Acid. The demand from downstream sectors, particularly the Paint and Coating industry, also had a significant impact on market trends. France experienced significant changes in Acrylic Acid prices due to increased demand from the Construction as well as the Paint and Coating industries and supply chain disruptions caused by ongoing farmer protests. This tight supply situation contributed to a price increase in France. Analyzing the price trends in France during the first quarter, an upward trend with slight seasonality effects was observed. In conclusion, the Acrylic Acid market in the European region during the first quarter of 2024 was influenced by supply and demand dynamics, raw material price fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions. France experienced increased demand and supply chain disruptions, leading to a price increase.
MEA
During the first quarter of 2024, the Acrylic Acid market in the MEA region encountered difficulties as demand from downstream industries, especially the Paint and Coating sector, remained weak. This led to decreased consumption rates and an increase in inventories. Additionally, there was an oversupply of Acrylic Acid in the market, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. To address this issue, companies implemented a strategy of reducing prices to stimulate demand and maintain their competitiveness. Among the countries in the MEA region, Saudi Arabia witnessed significant fluctuations in the price of Acrylic Acid, closely following the overall market trend. The prices in Saudi Arabia mirrored the general market pattern, showing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter. In terms of price comparison, the Acrylic Acid market in Saudi Arabia experienced no price change compared to the same quarter of the previous year. However, there was a positive percentage change in prices compared to the previous quarter in 2023.
South America
During the first quarter of 2024, the prices of Acrylic Acid continued to experience an inclining trend. The price of Acrylic Acid showcased a slight incline in its trend along with the incline in the prices of its feedstock, Propylene, which further increased the production cost of the commodity. Furthermore, the supplies were delayed due to the ongoing drought and restrictions in the Panama Canal due to which the cargo was rerouted toward Cape Horn resulting in the supply chain disruption and increasing the prices of Acrylic Acid. Furthermore, in March, in response to the drought, Panamanian authorities tightened transit and draft restrictions at the canal. The number of daily transits gradually reduced in November 2023 and most recently improved to 27 through the end of March 2024. The container ships were given priority to book slots, tankers have been participating in expensive auctions to skip the queue. The Panama Canal's navigation restrictions have shifted global shipping routes. Shipowners have started circumventing the canal, opting for lengthy and treacherous alternatives. Therefore instead of waiting for their turn in the Panama Canal, the Shipowners opted to shift their trading routes to Cape Horn and it has contributed to the price hike of the commodity along with the heightened demand from the downstream Paint and Coating sectors. Additionally, Water levels in Panama’s Gatun Lake were unchanged for a second week at 80.5 feet, keeping the variable freshwater surcharge unchanged at 2.89% as of March 28. That water levels were unchanged for two consecutive weeks was good news and should be reassuring that the worst of the low water conditions are nearly done, even though the seasonal dry period across Panama extends through May. The better news is that water levels in Gatun Lake are not expected to fall as much as anticipated and by the end of May are expected to recover after falling slightly.
