For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The pricing environment for 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate (2-EHN) in the North America region during Q1 2024 has been characterized by fluctuations influenced by several significant factors. The overall trend for 2-EHN prices in the region has been negative, with prices experiencing a decline compared to the previous quarter in 2024.
This decline can be attributed to various factors such as increased availability of cheaper imports from overseas, delays in overseas shipments due to rising freight costs and logistical challenges, and low demand from the domestic market. The USA, in particular, has seen the maximum price changes for 2-EHN during this period. Prices in the USA have been influenced by factors such as the resolution of the Red Sea crises, which led to a reduction in freight rates and contributed to a decline in prices.
Additionally, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed significant improvement, indicating rapid expansion in the manufacturing sector and an increase in new export orders. In terms of seasonality, the first half of the quarter saw a decline in prices, while the second half remained relatively stable. The quarter-ending price for 2-EHN in the USA was recorded at USD 1880/MT CFR Houston, indicating a negative pricing environment. Overall, the pricing environment for 2-EHN in the North America region during Q1 2024 can be characterized as negative, with prices experiencing a decline influenced by factors such as increased availability of cheaper imports and low demand.
Europe
During Q1 2024, the European 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate (2-EHN) market faced challenges characterized by a negative trend attributed to lacklustre demand from the downstream diesel industry. Refineries globally struggled to meet diesel fuel demands amid economic recovery post-pandemic and fallout from the 2022 energy crisis, leading to concerns over diesel shortages and rising inflation. Institutional speculators reacted by selling diesel positions, contributing to declining prices. The market also adjusted to global trade flow disruptions following ship attacks by Yemen’s Houthis in the Red Sea, impacting supply chains and pressuring diesel prices. However, increased diesel production alleviated concerns about shortages, contributing to lower prices. The weakness in diesel demand is likely a temporary occurrence amid stuttering economies, evidenced by sluggish GDP growth, particularly in key economies like Germany, which experienced a recession. This decline in diesel consumption signals broader economic challenges, potentially impacting consumer purchasing power and contributing to overall inflationary pressures. Despite these challenges, market conditions are expected to evolve as global trade stabilizes and economies recover from disruptions, potentially impacting future trends in the European 2-EHN market.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has been a challenging period for the 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate (2-EHN) market in the APAC region. Several factors have influenced market prices, leading to a mix of positive and negative trends. In South Korea, the market has seen the maximum price changes. The overall trend for 2-EHN prices in the country has been negative, with prices decreasing by 3.5% in February 2024. This decline can be attributed to cheaper imports of the product from overseas and the extension of retail fuel tax cuts by the South Korean government, which may not necessarily boost domestic automotive fuel sales. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East has created uncertainty in global oil prices. Overall, the pricing environment for 2-EHN in the APAC region has been bearish. Supply has remained low, while demand has also been relatively low, particularly from the downstream paints and coatings industry. Plant shutdowns have not been reported in the region. Looking at the price changes from the previous quarter, prices are expected to remain stable in March 2024. However, there may be a slight decrease of 2.4% in April 2024. The market is likely to remain optimistic in the first month of Q2 2024. In summary, the first quarter of 2024 has seen a bearish pricing environment for 2-EHN in the APAC region, with South Korea experiencing the most significant price changes. While there have been challenges in the market, the latest quarter-ending price of 2-EHN in South Korea is USD 1770/MT CFR Busan.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American market for 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate experienced a series of influential factors. Primarily, a bullish sentiment prevailed in the market, driven by increased demand from various end-use industries, while the supply remained stable.
Stability in the U.S. construction sector and a marginal rebound in the automotive industry contributed to the positive price trend for 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate, reflecting the interconnected nature of these sectors. The festive season additionally infused optimism among traders, leading to a surge in demand. Furthermore, a slight uptick of approximately 1.2% was witnessed in the prices of 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate, influenced by a rise in the exporting Indian market's product prices. This escalation was propelled by increased costs of feedstock 2 Ethylhexanol, subsequently impacting production expenses.
The heightened demand for the product stemmed notably from the downstream diesel additive sector, stimulated by increased transportation and farming activities. As the quarter concluded, the price of 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate CFR Houston in the USA hovered around USD 1650/MT.
APAC
During the fourth quarter of 2023, the 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region exhibited a bullish trend. Notably, the market remained resilient without any significant plant shutdowns during this period. Among APAC nations, South Korea emerged as a focal point, experiencing notable price fluctuations. Prices saw a marginal increase of approximately 5.3%, reaching USD 1570/MT CFR Busan. This upturn was primarily attributed to the surge in feedstock prices, particularly the escalation in 2-Ethylhexanol prices. South Korea's demand for 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate remained robust, especially from the downstream diesel refinery sector, fuelled by heightened refinery run rates and a positive outlook in the transportation sector. The national airline, Korean Air, announced plans to expand operations, further stimulating product demand. Analysing quarterly trends, a 1.2% increase in prices from the previous quarter indicated a slight upward trajectory. However, compared to the same quarter in the previous year, prices showed no significant change. Additionally, there was a 2% price decrease in the latter half of the quarter compared to the first half. In summary, the fourth quarter of 2023 for 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate in the APAC region, particularly in South Korea, showcased price stability with a subtle uptick in December. Strong demand from the downstream diesel refinery sector and increased refinery run rates played key roles in shaping the market dynamics. The latest recorded price for 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate CFR Busan in South Korea for the current quarter stands at USD 1570/MT.
Europe
In the final quarter of 2023, the European 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate market experienced a bullish trend, marked by an upward trajectory in product prices. A significant factor influencing this surge was the impact of costly imports from overseas, contributing to the elevated price dynamics within the region. Additionally, the heightened cost of the feedstock 2-Ethylhexanol played a role in driving up the overall production expenses of the product within the European market. The United States, serving as the leading global exporter of refined petroleum products, including 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate and 2-Ethylhexanol, significantly influences the European market. The west coast of North America, traditionally a pivotal destination, relies heavily on the Panama Canal for transportation. However, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) implemented stringent restrictions on reservation slots in November, causing increased waiting times for ships without reservations. This restriction, coupled with record-high spot rates for Medium-Range (MR) product tankers, has further intensified the cost of importing 2-Ethylhexyl Nitrate into the European region during this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Prices of 2-Ethyl hexyl Nitrate (2-EHN) witnessed a bearish situation in the first two months of the third quarter, with prices declining by approximately 7% and then followed by a bullish trend where prices again rebounded by 8%. This was primarily due to prices of feedstock 2-Ethyl hexanol also fluctuating, with prices initially witnessing a bearish situation for the first two months of the third quarter as prices declined by almost 25% and then rebounded marginally by 1%. Despite automotive sales remaining almost constant, prices of 2-EHN witnessed a fluctuating trend mainly due to varying production costs. Demand from the downstream diesel industry remained constant as diesel prices increased by almost 21% throughout the third quarter of 2023, which was mainly due to increasing prices of crude oil, which also increased by almost 25%. Prices of other feedstock nitric acid also increased by almost 5% throughout the third quarter. Furthermore, input costs across the United States continued to rise, which also varied production costs. Prices of 2-EHN are further expected to rise as prices of feedstock 2-Ethyl hexanol are also expected to increase as demand for LNG strengthens, which can consequently increase prices of upstream Crude Oil. Consequently, this may further add to production costs.
APAC
Prices of 2-Ethyl hexyl Nitrate (2-EHN) witnessed a mixed market situation in the Asian market, with prices declining in the first two months by 8% of the third quarter, then increasing in the last of the third quarter by almost 9%. This was primarily due to fluctuating feedstock 2 ethyl hexanol (2EH) prices, which also showed a mixed market situation in the third quarter of 2023. This was primarily due to fluctuating prices of feedstock 2 ethyl hexanol, which also witnessed a similar market situation throughout 2023, despite prices of another feedstock, Nitric Acid, increasing by almost 5%. Demand from the diesel additive sector was high as industrial activity improved towards the end of September. With economic indicators displaying a positive outlook, trading activities in the automotive sector also increased. This increased demand further improved the market prices of 2-EHN, which are expected to appreciate further, as feedstock 2EH prices are also likely to increase due to increasing prices of upstream crude oil.
Europe
Prices of 2-Ethyl hexyl Nitrate (2-EHN) witnessed a mixed market situation in Europe, with prices declining in the first two months of the third quarter and then increasing in the last of the third quarter. The main reason for the prices initially observing a bearish situation is mainly attributed to recessionary conditions that prevailed across Europe at the beginning of the third quarter. Furthermore, production costs eased as prices of feedstock 2 ethyl hexanol (2-EH) declined by almost 20%, which substantially eased production costs. However, an interesting bullish situation was observed for the prices of 2-EHN towards the month of September as the automotive industry improved, with sales witnessing substantial increments across the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Moreover, disruptions in the supply chain were also recorded as water levels of the Rhine River fluctuated, which consequently caused congestion across the ports. Demand from the downstream diesel industry is expected to increase as the winter season nears, and prices of feedstock 2 ethyl hexanol are also likely to increase as demand for Natural Gas strengthens, which is likely to increase prices of upstream Crude Oil.
