For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. 2-EH market experienced mixed trends during the fourth quarter of 2024. Prices initially rose by approximately 2% in October due to disruptions caused by the hurricane season. Force majeure declarations at several U.S. Propylene production facilities led to reduced 2-EH production, pushing prices up during the early part of the quarter. However, as production conditions improved later in the quarter, prices fell by around 6%.
Export conditions remained unfavorable for much of the period, with the strike between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) resulting in vessel backlogs, leading to inventory accumulation at ports. Demand conditions showed mixed trends, with positive momentum from the automotive sector but bearish pressure from the construction sector's downturn.
Toward the end of the year, supply conditions improved as suppliers engaged in destocking to avoid inventory devaluation and year-end tax repercussions. While export conditions showed some improvement, the market remained largely oversupplied, limiting any significant price recovery. Additionally, export prices of 2-EH faced competition as approximately 1.3 million tons of oxo-alcohol capacity came online across Asia in December 2024. This led to U.S. suppliers importing attractively priced inventories from the Asian market, further exerting downward pressure on domestic prices.
Europe
During late Q4 2024, prices of 2-EH across the German market fell by approximately 15% due to ample supplies amid low demand conditions. Following OQ Chemicals' return to production in early May, the market struggled to recover from its bearish trend, as demand from primary sectors like paints and coatings remained weak. The downturn persisted throughout the latter part of the quarter, with destocking activities intensifying as early as mid-November 2024. Producers faced challenges in passing on higher feedstock Propylene costs to customers, further pressuring the market. Arbitrage opportunities in and out of Europe stayed largely closed, and inland trading encountered disruptions, exacerbated by maintenance at several ports in Northwestern Europe. These issues hindered product flow, leading to inventory accumulation and further price declines. Toward the year’s end, producers attempted to stabilize the market by reducing production, but these efforts were largely unsuccessful. The European 2-EH market was marked by limited outages and ample supplies as suppliers sought to move inventories in bulk to avoid tax repercussions. This effort to clear stocks became a dominant factor behind the persistent bearishness observed in the market.
APAC
During Q4 2024, the Asian 2-EH market experienced fluctuations, with prices rising by 1.2% early in the quarter before dropping 2.8% by its end. In Japan, production costs increased in November as feedstock Propylene prices rose by 1.1%, driven by maintenance turnarounds and limited PDH operating rates in South Korea. Supply constraints worsened as Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics and South Korea’s Hanwha Solutions cut production, while rising shipping costs pushed import prices higher. The Intra-Asia Container Index surged 45% in November, from $573 to $829 per 40ft container, amid pre-Christmas demand. JNC Corporation raised 2-EH prices by Yen 10,000/MT for October 2024 deliveries due to rising logistics and storage costs. However, sluggish demand from the paints and coatings sector, impacted by Japan’s weak construction activity, reversed the bullish trend. Additionally, over 1 million tonnes of oxo-alcohol capacity came online in China late in the quarter, driving prices downward. By year-end, the Japanese market faced a downturn due to high costs and subdued downstream demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American 2-Ethylhexanol market faced significant challenges that led to a marked decline in prices. Key factors included supply disruptions caused by the ongoing hurricane season, which impacted production costs and contributed to the downward pricing trend. Additionally, weak demand from critical sectors such as construction and automotive further exacerbated the situation. Focusing on the USA, which experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations, the overall trend for 2-Ethylhexanol was decidedly negative. Prices dropped by 5% compared to the same quarter last year and fell 3% from the previous quarter. A comparison of the first and second halves of the quarter revealed an additional 2% decrease, highlighting a persistent downward trajectory.
Although Eastman Chemicals, a major producer of 2-Ethylhexanol, raised prices by USD 110/mt effective August 1, 2024, this increase failed to offset the overall market sentiment, which was dampened by weakened demand that did not recover amid seasonal fluctuations. Production disruptions from shutdowns in feedstock propylene added to the bearish environment, as did unfavorable export conditions stemming from strikes organized by the International Longshoremen's Association, which disrupted shipping and logistics. The ongoing hurricane season further complicated operations in vital manufacturing areas across the USA.
By the end of the quarter, the price for 2-Ethylhexanol DDP New York stood at USD 2,385/MT, reflecting the prevailing downward trend in the region's pricing landscape.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European 2-Ethylhexanol market faced a dramatic downturn, with Germany leading the way in price declines. Several key factors contributed to this shift, including the return to full production by major manufacturers such as OQ Chemicals and an influx of supply due to enhanced production capabilities. The significant drop in feedstock propylene prices further reduced production costs, but demand from vital downstream sectors—particularly construction and plasticizers—remained tepid, putting additional downward pressure on market prices. August brought a brief respite from the downward trend as many propylene plants temporarily shut down for maintenance during the summer holidays, including a force majeure declaration by Shell Chemicals at its Moerdijk facility in the Netherlands. This disruption led to a notable decrease in 2-Ethylhexanol output across Europe. In response to persistent bearish conditions, OQ Chemicals attempted to stabilize the market by implementing a price increase of $110/MT in the European market. However, by September, most propylene plants had resumed operations, and the arrival of propylene cargoes from the Middle East and Asia created a supply glut, exacerbating the already negative market sentiment. The overall pricing environment for 2-Ethylhexanol in Europe during Q3 2024 was notably grim, with prices plummeting by 4% compared to the same quarter last year and a staggering 24% decline from the previous quarter. A comparison of prices from the first half to the second half of the quarter revealed an additional 3% drop, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 1,240/MT FOB Hamburg in Germany. This sharp decline underscores the challenges facing the European market as it grapples with oversupply and sluggish demand.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the Asian 2-EH market experienced a pronounced bearish trend, with prices plummeting by over 23% by the quarter's end. This decline was primarily driven by an oversupplied market that continued to exert downward pressure on prices. Formosa Plastics Corporation, a key producer in the region, maintained its Mai Liao facility’s run rates at 100% capacity, producing 200,000 metric tons of 2-EH. Similarly, Luxi Chemical, with a production capacity of 300,000 metric tons per year, also kept its run rate steady at 100% throughout the quarter, contributing to an overall supply glut. This situation resulted in historically low prices for 2-EH across the Asian market. Despite moderate availability of feedstock propylene—which was expected to impact production—the continued high supply overwhelmed demand. Furthermore, a downturn in the construction sector limited demand from the paints and coatings industries, further exacerbating the price decline. The combination of abundant supply and subdued demand created significant challenges for the 2-EH market in the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American 2-Ethylhexanol market witnessed a notable shift in pricing dynamics, predominantly marked by upward trends. Several critical factors played a pivotal role in shaping market prices during this period. Key among these was the escalation in production costs driven by higher Propylene prices, spurred by increased power demand exacerbated by a regional heatwave.
This surge in energy consumption, particularly in Propane usage for Propylene production, significantly elevated costs. Concurrently, disruptions in the supply chain, including plant maintenance and force majeures at major facilities, further constrained Propylene availability, intensifying the upward pressure on 2-Ethylhexanol prices. In the USA, where price movements were most pronounced, the overall trend reflected robust price increases despite moderate demand from downstream sectors like plasticizers and construction. Seasonal factors, such as heightened summer demand for cooling systems, indirectly impacted Propylene demand and prices. The correlation between rising feedstock costs and 2-Ethylhexanol prices was evident, with a notable 15% increase from the previous quarter.
However, compared to the same quarter last year, prices showed a significant 22% decrease, highlighting market volatility and the influence of higher base prices from the previous year. Notably, price stability within the quarter was observed, with minimal fluctuation between the first and second halves, indicating a relatively steady pricing environment. The quarter concluded with 2-Ethylhexanol priced at USD 2500/MT DDP New York, underscoring a positive pricing trend driven by constrained supply and heightened production costs. Overall, the quarter depicted a stable yet upward trajectory in 2-Ethylhexanol prices, shaped by significant supply-side pressures and consistent demand dynamics.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 posed significant challenges for 2-Ethylhexanol (2-EH) in the APAC region, characterized by persistent price declines. Factors such as oversupply, relaxed supply conditions, and reduced demand from critical industries like construction and automotive heavily influenced market prices. The abundance of Propylene as feedstock further constrained production costs, adding to the downward pressure on 2-EH prices. Despite occasional supply disruptions and maintenance halts from major producers offering brief stability, the overall market trend remained overwhelmingly negative. Japan experienced the sharpest price drops with a 29% year-on-year decrease and a 2% quarter-on-quarter decline, highlighting ongoing downward momentum. Seasonal expectations of a construction peak faltered due to speculative investments and delayed policy decisions during the election season, contributing to a noticeable 6% decline in the latter half of the quarter. With subdued demand and ample supply setting the tone, the closing price for 2-Ethylhexanol CFR Osaka in Japan at USD 1307/MT underscored the prevailing downturn. This environment suggests a cautious outlook ahead, with any short-term improvements unlikely to reverse the current bearish trajectory.
Europe
The European 2-Ethylhexanol (2-EH) market in the second quarter of 2024 saw a significant price decline due to several key factors. Major producers like OQ Chemicals resumed production after previous disruptions, increasing supply levels. This surplus, combined with lower Propylene costs reducing production expenses, intensified downward price pressures. Normalization of longer trade routes, particularly those affected by Red Sea security issues, also contributed to a more balanced market by improving product flow. In Germany, the 2-EH market experienced notable price fluctuations driven by subdued demand from plasticizer and construction sectors, worsened by unfavourable weather conditions hampering construction activity. The interaction between increased supply and weakened demand accelerated price drops. Comparatively, German prices in Q2 2024 fell by 20% year-on-year and 11% from the previous quarter, marking a consistent downward trend. Within the quarter, prices decreased by 14% between its halves, indicating sustained market softness. By quarter-end, 2-EH prices in Germany stood at USD 1370/MT FOB Hamburg, reflecting a persistently negative pricing environment. The continuous decline highlights an enduring bearish sentiment fuelled by surplus supply, diminished demand, and compounded seasonal challenges.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The 2-Ethylhexanol (2-EH) prices across the North American overall exhibited a bullish market situation with prices overall witnessing an increment of approximately 30% during the first quarter of this year. The US 2-EH market was supported from the cost side as many oxo-alcohol producers namely Eastman Chemicals and OQ Chemicals have initiated several prices hikes throughout this quarter.
Also, with the improvement in weather conditions across the US market from middle of February 2024, the downstream construction and automotive sectors improved providing enough support to the US 2-EH prices. After the Arctic Blast recorded in January 2024, the US construction sector displayed notable improvements. US automotive sales soared throughout the first quarter of 2024, increasing by 31%, which led to healthy demand from the downstream plasticizer industry. Also driving the US 2-EH was the healthy performance of the construction sector. The US construction sector continued to expand throughout the first quarter of 2024.
The rise in the construction sector was primarily attributed to the upturns in residential construction, commercial building, and civil engineering activities. Moreover, as the US homebuying season approached, existing inventories of 2-EH continue to come under pressure. Stability in the mortgage rates also continued to positive outlook amongst the prospective homebuyers, creating further pressure on the downstream plasticizer sector. Also, during the middle of the first quarter supply conditions were recorded to have been uncertain as OQ Chemicals, a leading producer of oxo-alcohol declared a force majeure at its Oberhausen site in Germany, which threatened the supply dynamics of 2-EH. Moreover, several plants, including LyondellBasell in Corpus Christi, Shell Chemical in Deer Park, Dow Chemical in Freeport, and Enterprise Product in Mount Belview, all located in Texas, experienced disruptions in their operations, leading to a shortage in the prices of feedstock Propylene (Refinery Grade) and subsequently increasing the prices of 2-EH.
Asia
The Asian 2 Ethyl hexanol market witnessed bearish situation throughout the first quarter of 2024 largely on the back of reduced demand from the downstream plasticizer industry. The reduced demand for the product largely stemmed from the underperformance of the Chinese construction sector in which investment sentiments continued to remain low. The termination of peak festive Chinese Lunar New Year led to destocking activities which increased the supplies of the product, thereby compelling prices of the product to fall. With weather conditions also remaining challenging, across Shandong the circulation of the product was also slow. Moreover, the prices hikes initiated by leading major oxo-alcohol producers such as OQ Chemicals and Eastman Chemicals did not have any effects on the prices of the product across Asia. The Chinese 2-EH market was primarily driven by low demand from the construction industry. With China’s construction sector being largely crisis, existing construction activities were either postponed, or completely halted, thereby prompting the prices of 2 EH to fall. Overall prices of 2-EH were recorded to have depreciated by approximately 20% after the termination of first quarter of 2024. Also, during the middle of the first quarter supply conditions were recorded to have been uncertain as OQ Chemicals, a leading producer of oxo-alcohol declared a force majeure at its Oberhausen site in Germany, which threatened the supply dynamics of 2-EH.
Europe
The prices of 2-EH across the European market were recorded to have inflated by more than 50% during the first quarter of 2024. The chief reasons considered for the increments in the prices of the product are largely due to the persistent crisis at the Red Sea which led to the shortage of feedstock Propylene which also inflated due to plant shutdowns across Europe and the USA from where Propylene is imported into Europe. Moreover, the supply conditions for 2-EH further became restrictive due to the force declared by one of the major leading producers of oxo-alcohols namely OQ Chemicals, declared a force majeure at their site in Oberhausen, Germany on February 27, 2024. Overall prices of feedstock Propylene increased by approximately 35% which increased production costs. However, the market for European 2-EH from the demand side. The primary demand from the downstream construction sector across Europe remained largely in retrenchment. Steep contractions were largely noted across all the three segments of the construction sector, namely housebuilding, commercial construction, and civil engineering activities. The continued drag on the construction sector largely stemmed from the housebuilding segment as house prices and permits continued to decline. The only support to the demand for 2-EH originated from the secondary automotive sector, which had witnessed substantial improvements towards the termination of the first quarter of 2024.
