Will Paraxylene Plant Maintenance in China Lead to Price Hike in Q2 of 2023?

Prices for Paraxylene have been progressively rising as supply has recently been even more constrained due to more plants being shut down for maintenance in Q2 and a continual rise in the operating rate of Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA). Although it can be challenging to monitor the pricing of downstream polyester products, Polyester Filament Yarn(PFY), Polyester Staple Fibre(PSF), and Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Resin are currently suffering large losses.

A few Paraxylene plants have planned to cut production, such as CNPC Liaoyang in Liaoning, with a production capacity of 700 KT/yr plans from Early April for 1 and half months, while CNPC Urumqi plans for plant maintenance starting from mid-April to Late June. Meantime, CNOOC Huizhou in Guangdong started plant maintenance on March 15 and will last for 50 days.

According to reports, there are also a few Paraxylene plants in South Korea, including GS Caltex Corporation Yeosu Complex, South Korea, with a total production capacity of 400KT/yr, which stopped production on March 18 and will remain closed through late April. GS 3# with a total production capacity of 550KT/yr, which stopped production on March 8 and will remain closed through early May 2023.

Based on the planned turnaround, the operating rates at the Asian and Chinese Paraxylene plants may further decline and approach record lows of 70% and 68%, respectively, in mid-April. After that, it is anticipated to rise progressively. However, the operating rate of the Paraxylene facility is anticipated to continue declining with more maintenance plans.

In the downstream market, PTA producers were motivated to increase plant operating rates, and the average level quickly increased from 70% to 80%. In contrast, due to lower unit operating rates and delayed end-use market offtakes, Paraxylene demand was not high in the Polyester market.

According to the ChemAnalyst Forecast, Owing to the high operating rates of PTA plants and the planned maintenance of Paraxylene units, there may be a supply constraint, which might lead to an increase in the price of Paraxylene.