US Toluene Market Struggles to Keep its Head High Amidst the Dipped Demand

Toluene prices in North America have begun September with a downward trajectory, driven by broader market uncertainties. The decline in Toluene prices is attributed to several factors, including rising production costs, fluctuating demand, and supply chain disruptions both domestically and globally. Key consumers of Toluene, such as Toluene Diisocyanate, phenol, and cumene, continue to face weak local demand, adding to the price pressure. Additionally, volatility in naphtha, a crucial feedstock for Toluene production, is further influencing pricing trends.

Meanwhile, OPEC’s diminishing influence on global crude oil markets has shifted focus to U.S. economic data, heightening concerns over market volatility. Economic indicators from August, such as an increase in weekly unemployment claims, a weak manufacturing activities, and a disappointing payroll report, have raised alarm. However, while concerns about the state of the economy persist, investors acknowledge that a full-scale economic collapse appears unlikely. Instead, the U.S. economy seems to be entering a late-stage business cycle characterized by gradual deceleration rather than a steep downturn, offering some stability in Toluene prices amid the volatility.

At the same time, several chemical companies in Louisiana are shutting down plants, while others are taking precautionary measures as Hurricane Francine, now upgraded to a Category 2 storm, approaches for imminent landfall. These closures are part of wider efforts to protect workers and infrastructure from the severe weather. Louisiana, a critical hub for the petrochemical industry, may face production and supply chain disruptions for key chemicals. Companies are also preparing for potential flooding, power outages, and facility damage, which could lead to further operational delays. Local authorities have urged evacuations in high-risk areas as part of broader emergency response efforts.

Upstream, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reports that approximately 38% of U.S. oil production and 48% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico have been shut. The Port of New Orleans has also suspended operations, while rail companies warn customers of delays as shipments are rerouted due to the closure of the port’s floodgates.

These combined factors are likely to lead to further fluctuations in Toluene prices, although minor adjustments are expected. Despite the challenges, the U.S. construction and coatings sectors could see improvement as Toluene is required in the paints and coatings sector. Capacity growth is projected to continue through the latter half of 2024 and into 2025, driven by insurers optimizing local capacity and the influx of new market entrants seeking to establish themselves. In Europe, ChemAnalyst predicts that Toluene prices will remain stable yet subdued in the coming week due to a decline in new orders and backlogs. Despite inflation and rising interest rates, competition and new market entrants are expected to keep Toluene prices steady across most regions and business sectors.