The Caustic Soda market is seeing a notable upward trend in the US market during the second half of October 2024. This surge is driven by a combination of low inventory levels, and increased maintenance activities in key production areas of the region.

Caustic Soda prices in the U.S. continue to rise. Supply disruptions, such as the recent Force Majeure declaration by Westlake Chemical, have heightened concerns about availability, contributing to upward pressure on prices. Market participants anticipate that U.S. prices will remain elevated until the completion of maintenance work in November, which could restore supply and ease price tensions. Alcoa's demand for Caustic Soda, vital in alumina production, is also being closely monitored as it could impact cost structures moving forward.

In the USA, Caustic Soda prices in the U.S. continue to hold strong, driven by limited availability and ongoing supply disruptions caused by maintenance activities at several global production facilities. Market participants are closely watching U.S.-based Alcoa Corporation, one of the largest consumers of Caustic Soda for alumina production, to gauge future demand trends. Despite sluggish demand, prices for Caustic Soda have risen across the Americas, Europe, and Asia, with U.S. market levels expected to remain elevated until maintenance work concludes in November. Once production normalizes, Alcoa anticipates improved performance in its alumina segment and potentially lower production costs moving forward, a development that could offer some relief to the company’s operational expenses. Market participants are optimistic that as supply constraints ease, Caustic Soda prices may stabilize in the coming months.

From the Alumina sector demand outlook, An Eastern U.S. railroad anticipates mixed conditions in the Caustic Soda market for the fourth quarter, which could dampen freight demand. Metals shipments are expected to weaken as the year progresses, with shipments in particular facing challenges due to sluggish demand, ample supply, and low commodity prices. Additionally, consumer interest in automotive products has declined, driven by high retail prices and rising interest rates, leading to increased dealer inventories and a slowdown in the downstream Alumina sector production.

As per ChemAnalyst, it is anticipated that U.S. Caustic Soda prices will remain elevated till November 2024, when these maintenance activities are expected to conclude, potentially leading to a normalization in production levels. Moreover, Alcoa is expected to lower its production costs moving forward and is likely to contribute to increasing the Caustic Soda consumption. Shipping container rates from East Asia and China to the U.S. remain under downward pressure after the pre-holiday peak season ended earlier than expected. However, backlogs at several East Coast ports, caused by a recent 3-day strike, may result in short-term delays.