Unlocking Opportunities: China's Coal Import Policy Reversal and Its Impact on Prices

In April 2023, several international markets witnessed a decrease in the price of Coal in countries such as the USA, Australia, South Africa, and Indonesia. However, China and India experienced an increase in Coal prices, with China seeing a rise of around 0.8% and India experiencing an increase of 8.5%. This was attributed to the heightened demand for energy during the summer season in both countries.

In India, the demand for Coal escalated due to increased energy requirements from power plants. Notably, states like Andhra Pradesh recorded electricity demand surpassing 250 million units for the first time in history. The peak demand for electricity this season witnessed a substantial 27.51% increase compared to the previous year. According to the Ministry of Coal, the Gevra Megaproject in Chhattisgarh, operated by South-eastern Coalfields Limited (SECL), achieved a remarkable milestone by becoming India's first mine to produce 50 million tonnes of Coal annually. The government plans to expand further its capacity to reach an annual output of 70 million tonnes, positioning it as the largest Coal-producing mine in Asia. This expansion in production is expected to bolster the Coal supply in the Indian market, potentially leading to future price decreases.

Meanwhile, in China, Coal prices are anticipated to decrease in the second half of May 2023. As the Chinese government recently lifted all remaining restrictions on Australian Coal imports, thereby ending the trade barriers imposed in late 2020. This development is expected to enhance business confidence among stakeholders engaged in bilateral trade between China and Australia.

Furthermore, the government's approval of a new Coal mine in Australia is set to strengthen the product supply in Australia and other countries. Australia is known as one of the world's largest Coal producers and exporters. A decline in Australian Coal prices could lead to an increase in supply from other countries to compensate for the reduced demand, thereby exerting downward pressure on the product prices globally.

According to ChemAnalyst, the price of Coal in the global market may decrease in the second half of May 2023 due to an increase in supply in the respective regions.