The Ethyl Vinyl Alcohol Copolymer (EVOH) prices are expected to rebound in the USA during March 2025 on the back of a foreseen increase in trading activity fueled by uncertainty around Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian imports. Moreover, their retaliatory measures could signal a potential trader war, impacting supply chains and economic relations in the upcoming months.

Key Takeaways:

• US EVOH prices are expected to surge in March 2025 due to potential tariff threats.
• Despite the expected low demand from the downstream packaging sector, the new orders for EVOH may increase due to uncertainty in the market.
• A foreseen increase in the Ethylene Vinyl Acetate (feedstock for EVOH) prices is expected to impact production costs.

As per ChemAnalyst, the EVOH prices in the US market are foreseen to surge in March 2025 due to a supply-demand imbalance. As of March 21, 2025, the US government implemented significant tariffs, 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and a substantial 20% on goods from China. Previously, the initial effective date was February 4, 2025, however, it was postponed until March 4, 2025, amid temporary relief to Canada and Mexico. Yet, tariffs for China went into effect on February 4, 2025, which further led to retaliatory tariffs on US imports. If the retaliatory tariffs come into action, it may escalate the trade war and supply chain disruption in the upcoming months.

Moreover, a foreseen increase in the feedstock Ethylene Vinyl Acetate is expected during March. This increase could impact the production costs and make the export prices expensive. Furthermore, the spot market is also expected to be affected due to tightness in the supply dynamics.

A marginal increase in demand for EVOH from the downstream packaging sector was projected as the March season began. Despite the off-season for the downstream packaging industry, the new orders for EVOH may increase due to a surge in trading activity. This market expansion could be attributed to proactive purchases, as buyers sought to secure supply ahead of anticipated price hikes and potential supply challenges associated with impending tariffs during this timeframe. Moreover, the downstream automotive sales may surge in March 2025 which could provide further support to the prices.

However, as per the data of ChemAnalyst, the prices of EVOH, FOB Texas in the USA remained stable during February 2025. The demand for EVOH from the downstream packaging sector was low due to off-seasonality. However, the surge in the feedstock Ethylene-vinyl Acetate costs increased production expenses, offsetting the lower trend during this timeframe and leading manufacturers to keep the prices steady.