Surging Raffinate Prices in the US Market Amidst Crude Oil Surge and Economic Challenges

In the US market, Raffinate prices experienced a sharp surge in August, primarily triggered by the escalating costs of Raffinate's Feedstock Crude oil. This increase in crude oil prices was driven by mounting expectations of a tighter supply situation, as both Saudi Arabia and Russia have decided to extend their oil output cuts until the end of 2023. The upward trajectory in Raffinate's feedstock crude prices has the potential to translate into higher gasoline prices. This development comes at a challenging time when the economy is grappling with recovery efforts while addressing inflation concerns. In fact, the Consumer Price Index, a gauge of inflation, recorded its most substantial monthly increase this year in August, with energy prices being a significant contributor to this upswing, with a 5.6% rise, including a notable 10.6% surge in gasoline prices. WTI crude oil has shown nearly a 3% increase in price this week, marking its third consecutive weekly gain and contributing to a total rise of about 13% throughout the year. Notably, OPEC has recently updated its forecasts, indicated solid demand trends, and highlighted the possibility of a supply deficit in 2023 if production cuts are sustained. This is likely to impact the Raffinate market, and prices are expected to soar due to rising Feedstock crude oil prices.

The US market has faced several economic challenges recently. The PMI value for the US has fallen from 49 in July 2023 to 47.9 in August 2023, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, there has been an increase in the inflation rate from 3.2% in July to 3.7% in August, primarily due to rising crude oil prices. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate remained at 5.5%, creating a pessimistic market outlook. Consequently, demand from Raffinate's downstream industries has remained subdued, contributing to the overall economic challenges faced in the US market.

According to the ChemAnalyst Database, the prices of Raffinate are anticipated to increase in the US market. This expected price rise is primarily attributed to the significant elevation in Raffinate's feedstock crude oil prices, which is anticipated to occur because of production cuts. Sellers are also likely to hold on to their Raffinate's inventory, anticipating that prices will rise soon. Additionally, demand from Raffinate's downstream industries, such as MEK (Methyl Ethyl Ketone) and MTBE, is expected to increase, creating consistent demand pressure from these industries. Furthermore, demand from the international market is also expected to be on the higher side, leading to lower inventory levels in the market. Consequently, it is anticipated that sellers will charge higher prices for Raffinate.