Surge in US Acrylonitrile prices in H2 of July due to Hurricane impact

The Acrylonitrile price trend showcased an upward movement in the second half of July, as producers raised their quotations by 3.1%. The occurrence of Hurricane Beryl on the Gulf Coast impacted the operating rates at manufacturing units, stressing the availability of supplies. The consumption rates of Acrylonitrile were steady in downstream industries as the demand for Acrylonitrile to produce adhesive, pipes, and coatings was robust for downstream construction and manufacturing sectors. The construction sector continued to perform well. According to the US Census Bureau, construction spending in May 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.8 billion, reflecting a slight 0.1% decrease from April's revised estimate of USD 2,142.1 billion. It contributed to the firm consumption of construction materials. Consequently, manufacturing rates were firm, and at the end of the second quarter, the US Manufacturing PMI rose in June 2024, indicating a slight improvement in business conditions.

At the same time, there was an increase in cost support for feedstock ammonia due to production rate disruptions. However, stable cost support from feedstock propylene persisted amid moderate demand from downstream value chains following the impact of Hurricane Beryl on Propylene Cracking. According to the ChemAnalyst data sources, Acrylonitrile FOB Texas quotations in the USA witnessed USD 1345/MT, at the end of the week, which concluded on 19th July 2024.

Previously, the Acrylonitrile supplies were sufficient to cater to the market demand, and the offtakes remained moderate from the market. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased by 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, following no change in May 2024. In the automobile sector, total sales reached 1,341,273 units in June, representing a 7.15% decrease compared to May and a 3.22% decline from June of the previous year. This downturn highlights ongoing challenges within the market, including shifting consumer demand and potential economic factors impacting purchasing decisions. Consequently, the consumption of Nitrile Butadiene Rubber remained moderately low in the Automotive sector, which kept the orders stable for Acrylonitrile in the country. Simultaneously, the supply rates were moderately low to the market as US export rates declined in June 2024 compared to the last month.

As per the estimation, demand for Acrylonitrile is expected to rise among manufacturers of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene and Styrene Acrylonitrile, driven by increased consumption of construction materials. Concurrently, production costs for Acrylonitrile are likely to increase due to higher prices of feedstock Propylene, influenced by disruptions in cracking operations at cracking units. Furthermore, buyers may increase their stocking practices to mitigate potential future supply delays.