Stagnancy in DAP Prices in the USA Amid Balanced Demand-Supply Dynamics

The Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) price trend remained stagnant amid balanced demand-supply dynamics at the beginning of Q3 of 2024, and quotations remained unchanged by suppliers during July 2024. The demand for DAP was moderately low from the domestic agriculture sector, which negatively impacted the market offtakes. Meanwhile, DAP offtakes were average from the food sector as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased by 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, following no change in May 2024. However, the buyers ramped up their purchases from the market to stock up and mitigate potential supply disruptions and prolonged availability issues in the coming weeks caused by the hurricane in the country. At the same time, the country's manufacturing sector saw a deterioration in business conditions as new orders declined and the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index fell below 50 in July, indicating contractions in the health of the manufacturing sector.

The DAP supplies were sufficient to cater to the market demand, and the offtakes remained moderate from the market. Meanwhile, the cost support was fluctuating from the feedstock Ammonia and Phosphoric Acid due to shifting consumption by agrochemical manufacturers. Meanwhile, the import rates were firm and US imports increased in June 2024. At the same time, cost support from the feedstock Ammonia improved during the week due to increased demand from Indian fertilizer manufacturers after China decided to halt fertilizer exports to India. It limited the feedstock availability and DAP production at the domestic manufacturing units. At the same time, the cost support from the feedstock phosphoric acid was stable. The Phosphate market in the Midwest has remained largely unchanged, with reports indicating that demand is nearly nonexistent. Buyers who previously participated in the market have shifted their focus to alternative products to meet their requirements. The decline in grain prices has raised alarms among market participants, leading to discussion about potential slough in demand. The current affordability of DAP is slightly better than that of the 2023 crop, marking it the second worst in the last decade and the third worst since 2007. This trend indicates broader market challenges, including the impact of low grain prices on fertilizer demand and the ongoing adjustments buyers are making in response to these economic conditions.

Conclusively, at the end of July 2024, DAP DEL Illinois prices witnessed USD 560/MT, according to the ChemAnalyst data sources.

As per the estimation, the DAP prices would increase in the upcoming weeks of the third quarter of 2024 as the demand for DAP may improve from buyers during mid-quarter. The DAP consumption rates are likely to increase in the agriculture sector. Simultaneously, production costs of DAP may increase due to the anticipated incline in feedstock Phosphoric Acid prices.