Sluggish Demand for End Materials Driving Down Acrylonitrile Prices in Europe

The Acrylonitrile price trend showcased a bearish movement in the European region during August 2024 as market players reduced their quotations by 5.3%. The inquiries for Acrylonitrile, utilized in producing adhesive, pipes, and coatings, were depressing, driven by subdued material consumption in the downstream construction and automotive sectors during regional summer holidays. At the same time, in July 2024, the eurozone construction sector experienced a pronounced contraction, with activity declining at the fastest rate in six months due to sharp reductions in housing activity, which was the weakest segment. This weak demand led to a significant drop in new business, increased job losses, and reduced purchasing and subcontractor use. Despite these challenges, cost burdens rose only slightly. Simultaneously, the Eurozone Construction PMI Total Activity Index dropped, indicating a significant decrease in overall output, with the most notable decline observed in France.

However, at the beginning of the month, Acrylonitrile prices were firm. The suppliers raised the Acrylonitrile prices by 0.7% amid consistent demand and inadequate availability of supplies. At that time, the operating rates were moderate at the regional manufacturing units due to affliction in supplies of feedstock Propylene and Ammonia during the wet season and ongoing holidays in the region. It contributed to higher Acrylonitrile production costs.  Subsequently, propylene cost support eased as crude oil prices fell, linked to decreased transportation and fuel consumption during the summer holidays. Simultaneously, ammonia availability was constrained due to supply delays amid sluggish production, labor shortages, and rising natural gas costs, negatively affecting Acrylonitrile production rates. Conclusively, at the end of August 2024, Acrylonitrile FD Rotterdam prices witnessed USD 1215/MT, according to the ChemAnalyst data sources.

In August, the Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index remained the same as the previous month, reflecting consistent conditions in the manufacturing sector. The Manufacturing PMI Output Index reached a two-month high, indicating a slight improvement in output. Despite this, Eurozone goods prices increased for the first time since April 2023, even as new orders continued to decline at an accelerated pace.

As per the estimation, Acrylonitrile prices are estimated to decline towards the end of the third quarter of 2024. The demand for Acrylonitrile used in the production of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS) and Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR), key materials for rubber and construction, is anticipated to stabilize. As these industries adjust to changing market conditions, market players would likely lower their quotations towards the end of the quarter to remain competitive. This adjustment could reflect a strategic response to market dynamics and shifts in the supply and demand balance of Acrylonitrile.