Sinopec Forecasts Peak in China's Coal Consumption by 2025

China Petrochemical Corp, commonly known as Sinopec, has released an outlook stating its expectation that coal consumption in China will reach its peak around 2025, estimated to be approximately 4.37 billion metric tons. This projection is part of Sinopec's comprehensive 2060 outlook, which envisions significant shifts in the energy landscape. According to the outlook, non-fossil energy sources, primarily driven by solar and wind, are anticipated to surpass the equivalent of 3 billion metric tons of standard coal by 2045. This shift is expected to position non-fossil energy as the predominant source, accounting for more than half of primary energy consumption.

The 2060 outlook, disclosed in Beijing, outlines Sinopec's strategic perspective on the evolving energy landscape in China. It underscores the importance of transitioning towards cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, aligning with global efforts to address climate change.

In the same outlook, Sinopec forecasts that oil consumption in China will likely peak between the middle of 2026 and 2030 at 800 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 16 million barrels per day. This projection takes into account the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle sector, which has exceeded expectations and contributed to the changing dynamics of oil demand in the country. As the world's second-largest oil consumer, China is estimated to use 760 million tons, or 15.2 million barrels per day, of oil in the current year.

Sinopec's forward-looking analysis extends to the demand for natural gas, a key transitional fuel on the path to carbon neutrality. The forecast indicates that China's demand for natural gas is expected to plateau around 2040, reaching 610 billion cubic meters (bcm) and constituting 13% of primary energy use. This projection represents a significant increase from the anticipated figures for 2025, with 425 bcm and 9% of primary energy consumption.

The 2060 outlook aligns with broader global trends emphasizing the importance of reducing reliance on fossil fuels and embracing cleaner alternatives to achieve sustainability goals. Sinopec's strategic projections underline the role of non-fossil energy sources, such as solar and wind, in reshaping China's energy landscape.

Addressing environmental concerns, the outlook also addresses China's carbon emissions from energy activities. Sinopec anticipates that the total carbon emissions will peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan period at 10.1 billion metric tons, a slight increase from the 10.02 billion tons recorded in 2023.

Sinopec's comprehensive 2060 outlook provides a roadmap for China's energy transition, foreseeing a peak in coal consumption, a shift towards non-fossil energy dominance, and strategic projections for oil and natural gas. The outlook reflects a commitment to sustainable practices and aligns with global initiatives to combat climate change by embracing cleaner and more efficient energy sources. As China navigates these energy transitions, Sinopec's strategic insights play a crucial role in shaping the country's future energy landscape.