Silicone Oil Prices Surge in Europe Amidst Summer Demand And Supply Disruptions

Hamburg (Germany): Silicone Oil 100cst prices surged by USD 60/MT in May 2024 as supply disruptions intensified operations in Northern Europe due to flooding in Germany and the Netherlands. As observed previously, Silicone Oil prices also escalated in April despite weaker global trade conditions. On the other hand, Silicone Oil imports from China and other nations eased off as domestic manufacturing took precedence this month. Demand sentiment for Silicone Oil from the downstream consumer goods industry remains bullish, adding to the supply disruptions and creating upward pressure on prices in May. ChemAnalyst expects this trend to persist and forecasts higher prices in Europe for June and July as well.

Major Silicone Oil producer Wacker Chemie’s Koeln plant went offline at the end of May 2024 due to intensified flooding, causing power outages and logistical problems. This sudden outage led to quotations soaring as high as USD 3,600/MT for 20-ton deliveries from German suppliers to other European customers. Despite higher inventory levels curbing price disruptions significantly, European market players anticipate three price revisions for Silicone Oil in June and July to stimulate consumption, despite margin pressures observed in May.

ChemAnalyst data on Silicone Oil reveals that prices of chloromethane, derived from natural gas liquids, are currently trading for over USD 1,000/MT in European markets, marking a 21% increase from December 2023 prices. This rise in feedstock chloromethane prices corresponds to an increase in natural gas prices from USD 8.18/MMBtu to a peak of USD 11.17/MMBtu observed in March, driven by heating demands. Coupled with rising LNG costs, freight costs for US outbound deliveries of feedstock remained 22% higher, and 235% higher for Asia outbound deliveries from China, compared to December 2023 levels. International deliveries are significantly inflating the supply-side costs of Silicone Oil pricing.

StatBel and the European Commission's data on inflation reflect an easing of inflation on a year-over-year basis, but personal and homecare goods, heavily reliant on Silicone Oil, have surpassed overall inflation by at least 3% across the EU.

The cosmetic industry is gearing up for an extended spring and warm summer in Europe, increasing production for 2024 as consumer sentiment has remained positive for the fifth consecutive month since the beginning of the year. Support from Silicone Oil prices, easing gas prices in late May 2024, and anticipation of rate cuts in the third quarter have created favorable conditions for the cosmetics sector. ChemAnalyst forecasts a month-on-month increase in Silicone Oil prices for June and July, with expectations of a price drop in August 2024 due to seasonal factors and ease freight and inflationary pressures towards second half of Q3 2024.