Oil Prices Close Higher, Records Weekly Gain Amid Supply Tightness
- 12-Feb-2024 1:55 PM
- Journalist: Jacob Kutchner
Oil prices wrapped up the week on an upward trajectory, signaling a nearly 6% surge compared to the preceding week. This surge was primarily fueled by apprehensions surrounding disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply and tightening conditions within refined products markets. Brent crude futures experienced a modest increase of 56 cents, equivalent to 0.7%, settling at $82.19 per barrel. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at $76.84 per barrel, reflecting a 0.8% rise, or an increase of 62 cents.
Throughout the week, oil futures witnessed steady gains, buoyed by significant events such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of a Hamas ceasefire proposal midweek. The preceding week had seen a notable 7% decline in oil prices. Furthermore, Thursday's bombing incident in the southern border city of Rafah contributed to a roughly 3% increase in oil prices. Israeli military actions persisted with deadly airstrikes on the Gaza Strip continuing into Friday.
The momentum in crude futures was further reinforced by the escalating prices of gasoline and diesel. These increases were propelled by substantial downtime experienced by US refineries, both planned and unplanned, leading to tighter conditions in the product markets. Gasoline futures surged by approximately 9% over the week, reaching $2.34 per gallon, while heating oil futures registered an 11% upsurge, reaching $2.96 per gallon. Notably, US domestic production rebounded to a record level of 13.3 million barrels per day last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The previous month had witnessed widespread shutdowns in oil-producing regions due to adverse weather conditions.
In contrast, Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices observed a marginal decline during the week, persisting below the $10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) threshold for the fourth consecutive week. This subdued performance was attributed to weak demand dynamics and robust inventory levels. The estimated average LNG price for March delivery into northeast Asia decreased by $0.10 to $9.50 per mmBtu.
While certain regions of northeast Asia, notably China, reported heightened demand, analysts foresee a slowdown in the coming days due to the Lunar New Year holiday. However, northeast China is anticipated to endure a prolonged period of colder weather, with overnight temperatures projected to remain several degrees Celsius below historical averages until late March. Consequently, there may be a delay in the customary conclusion of the region's heating season, typically expected by mid-March.
In Europe, benchmark Dutch gas prices experienced a decline to their lowest levels in a fortnight. This downturn was attributed to more favorable weather forecasts and the recovery of Norwegian gas flows subsequent to earlier outages that had restricted supplies earlier in the week.