MEG Prices Fall in Europe and US, Rise in Asia Due to Supply Constraints in Early August 2024

European Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG) prices exhibited a declining trend during the first half of August 2024. Initially, MEG prices remained stable in the early week of the month. However, by the second week, ending on August 9th, MEG prices in the German market fell noticeably by 2%, largely due to weak demand from the downstream sector. This drop in MEG prices follows a period of stability that lasted from the middle of the previous month. Additionally, MEG feedstock, specifically Ethylene oxide, maintained stable prices in the German market throughout this period. Consequently, the cost support from Ethylene was confined to Ethylene oxide, which saw no price fluctuations.

In a similar way, US MEG prices displayed a stagnant trend in the domestic market. Specifically, during the first half of the month, MEG prices fell by approximately 2.5%. This decline was primarily due to insufficient cost support from feedstock and limited downstream demand. Market participants reported that downstream industries were experiencing poor offtake and weak spending sentiment, which further pressured MEG prices. According to the Labor Department, consumer prices increased by 0.2% in July, following a 0.1% decrease in June. Although there was a price rise, the overall inflation trend showed signs of moderation, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth easing to 2.9% from 3.0% in June. This moderation in inflation has contributed to expectations that the Federal Reserve might implement an interest rate cut in the coming month.

In the Asian market, MEG prices showed a mixed trend during the early half of August. In the initial week, MEG prices in the Chinese market experienced only a minimal decline due to stagnant downstream demand. Downstream manufacturing industries experienced limited offtake due to adjusted polyester production rates caused by low textile inquiries, while the bottle-grade PET market observed only minor fluctuations. However, in the second week of August 2024, the trend for MEG prices reversed. MEG prices surged approximately 1.5% due to low inventory and tight supply. This increase was further supported by reduced overseas shipments, particularly from the Middle East. In Saudi Arabia, raw material constraints led to lower operating rates and planned shutdowns. Jubail United Petrochemical Company's Unit 1 was shut down in late July with no announced restart date. The Yanpet plant has also recently ceased operations, and Jubail United Petrochemical Company's 3 unit is scheduled for a shutdown soon. Consequently, MEG shipments in the Asian market from Saudi Arabia remained low in early August 2024.

In conclusion, the analyst expects MEG prices to maintain their current trend across all regions in the coming week, influenced by existing factors, which could potentially impact market dynamics.