Kuwait Aims for Oil Price Target of $91 per Barrel in Next Year's Budget
- 05-Feb-2024 11:49 AM
- Journalist: Timothy Greene
In pursuit of a deficit reduction of KD 2.5 billion, projections underscore the necessity for Kuwait to attain an oil production level of approximately 2.8 million barrels per day, yielding an estimated KD 22 billion. This projected figure becomes the cornerstone for the forthcoming budget, set at KD 25 billion commencing from April 1, reflecting a substantial KD 2 billion reduction compared to the existing budget. The overarching objective is to assuage a projected deficit of KD 6 billion or $18 billion.
The government, in a notable move, has divulged its equilibrium price, anchoring the budget on a conservative crude oil price of $70 per barrel. However, there exists skepticism regarding the practicality of oil prices ascending to this predetermined level, with prevailing expectations gravitating towards a more realistic range of $75 to $80 per barrel. While the accomplishment of trimming government expenses is acknowledged, the focal point shifts towards the creation of over 24,000 job opportunities within the forthcoming 12 months.
A pivotal lacuna in the budget lies in the absence of transparency regarding Kuwait's projected crude oil production for the upcoming year—a crucial determinant for deficit mitigation. To effectuate a KD 2.5 billion deficit reduction, it is imperative to target an estimated oil production of 2.8 million barrels per day, amounting to KD 22 billion.
In order to attain a budget devoid of deficit, the recommended crude oil price is set at $80 per barrel, coupled with a production level of 2.8 million barrels, thereby obviating the necessity for oil prices to reach the ambitious $91 per barrel threshold. While achieving such a milestone would be advantageous, the looming challenge pertains to addressing the KD 6 billion shortfall. Potential solutions encompass international bank borrowings, leveraging sovereign wealth funds, or exploring unconventional avenues such as the privatization of certain oil companies.
Privatization emerges as a promising and multifaceted solution, serving the dual purpose of infusing immediate cash into the government coffers and fostering the growth of the private sector. This strategic move has the potential to contribute significantly to the recruitment and development of national graduates, thereby positively impacting the overall economy. However, the successful execution of such a strategy demands concerted efforts from both the government and the private sector.
A critical question that looms large pertains to the sustainability of the reduced level of expenditure. The collective hope is that the new government, under its leadership, will adeptly navigate the challenges and streamline the budget without resorting to borrowing. This marks the initiation of a new era, and the collective aspiration is for the government's endeavors to yield positive results, charting the course towards a fiscally responsible future. The stakes are high, and the success of these financial strategies will undoubtedly shape the economic trajectory of Kuwait in the years to come.