The global Grey Cast Iron market exhibited differing trends in the third week of February 2025, with prices in the U.S. experiencing a slight increase, while prices in China declined. This disparity highlights the distinct market dynamics, supply chains, and underlying feedstock trends that are influencing the two largest global markets.

Key Market Developments:

• Grey Cast Iron prices in the US rose 0.6% in the third week of February
• Chinese Grey Cast Iron market experienced a 1% price decline
• Brazilian pig iron exports to US saw significant price increases
• Iron ore concentrates in Western Liaoning face weak transaction activity
• Disruptions in global iron ore shipments affecting feedstock availability
• US mills exploring alternative sources including Indian imports

The Grey Cast Iron market continues to be shaped by upstream changes in pig iron and iron ore markets, with significant regional variations in both price movements and underlying market forces. In the US, the slight uptick in prices comes amid a more substantial increase in Brazilian pig iron costs, which have risen on a Cost and Freight basis.

The slight price increase in the U.S. Grey Cast Iron market is indicative of manufacturers' efforts to manage rising input costs while navigating competitive market pressures. The pig iron market has seen a notable increase, with two cargoes from Southern Brazil reflecting a rise from the previous week as well as an uptick from January levels. These shipments are not anticipated to arrive until late June, which could lead to ongoing pressure on prices in the upcoming months.

Meanwhile, Chinese Grey Cast Iron prices declined by 1%, indicating weaker domestic demand conditions despite supply-side constraints. The iron ore market in Western Liaoning shows low-priced resources becoming increasingly scarce, with sluggish overall transactions and large mines withholding supplies. This has created a complex dynamic where declining demand is balanced against tightening supply, resulting in the modest price decline.

Regional supply dynamics show distinct patterns. US Grey Cast Iron producers face increasing input costs, particularly from Brazilian pig iron with its high phosphorus content (maximum 0.15%). With low-phosphorus pig iron increasingly scarce due to shipping bans from Russia and limited exports from Ukraine, US manufacturers may continue to face challenges in sourcing optimal feedstock. Chinese producers, meanwhile, are navigating a domestic ore market described as "stagnant," with mine operators reluctant to reduce prices despite weak demand.

Demand trends similarly diverge between regions. US demand for Grey Cast Iron appears relatively stable, supported by the automotive sector's 3.8% growth in January and ongoing infrastructure projects. The resumption of prime scrap imports from Northern Europe indicates heightened demand for industrial-grade scrap, suggesting underlying strength in both scrap and Grey Cast Iron markets. Chinese demand remains subdued, with steel mills and traders adopting a cautious wait-and-see stance following the Spring Festival holiday.

As per ChemAnalyst, the outlook for the Grey Cast Iron market through 2025 remains region-specific. In the U.S., prices are expected to face upward pressure due to rising feedstock costs and ongoing supply chain challenges, although a resolution to the Ukraine conflict could alleviate some pressure on low-phosphorus materials. Conversely, the Chinese market may stabilize as production normalizes after the Lantern Festival, depending on broader economic recovery and construction activity. Key factors to watch include global iron ore shipping, scrap metal availability, and manufacturing output in sectors like automotive and infrastructure. Despite current divergent trends, the interconnectedness of global metal markets may lead to narrowing regional price differentials in the latter half of 2025.