Tallow oil prices are poised to be elevated in April on a global scale due to a myriad of factors.  Seasonal demand patterns, along with limited supply, are fulfilling market fundamentals. Robust demand from key downstream markets, particularly biodiesel and oleochemicals, is further driving the pace.

One significant factor behind this predicted price increase is the seasonal rise in demand. Meanwhile, there has usually been an uptick in the usage of tallow oil in the second quarter brought on by the rise in the industrial, personal care and food processing markets. The start of warmer periods generally increases production of soaps, detergents, and packaged foods, all of which applies tallow oil as an essential component. This seasonal pattern is forecast to persist in April, therefore reinforcing the upward trajectory in tallow oil prices.

India's expansion in its manufacturing section in March is expected to result in the rise in tallow oil prices both domestically and internationally like UAE. The significant expansion in new orders—the greatest growth since July 2024—indicates steeled industrial production and strong demand for goods such as tallow oil. As producers scaled up production to satisfy increasing demand, they also relied heavily on existing stocks of finished goods, leading to a rapid depletion of finished goods inventories. This depletion is expected to cause an increase in procurement activity in April to restock inventories, which in turn is likely to support higher tallow oil prices.

Moving forward, the reported increase in export to markets like the Middle East also indicate increasing demand from UAE buyers potentially leading to tighter availability in market which likely help pushing tallow oil prices higher.

Europe's demand from the biodiesel and oleochemical sectors will almost certainly cause tallow oil prices to rise. Especially among fuel blenders and refiners, the demand for sustainable feedstocks such as tallow oil has grown as European nations keep moving toward renewable energy directives. Europe's increasing focus on biofuels as part of its green transformation highlights the need of tallow oil in the renewable fuel mixture.

Furthermore, the application of antidumping duties on Chinese biodiesel imports is propping up local biodiesel producers, which in turn depends more on tallow oil as a regional feedstock. By restricting low-cost alternatives from entering the market, this protectionist policy raises demand for domestically sourced goods and therefore helps to drive up prices.

According to ChemAnalyst analysis, tallow oil prices are likely to continue on an upward trend in the next few months, driven by continued demand in major industries. Seasonal influences and continued industrial activity, particularly in developing markets, should continue to tighten supply further, placing upward pressure on prices.