Global Soybean Supply Expected to Reach All-Time High

In its latest outlook, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly adjusted its forecast for the global soybean supply, lowering it by a minimal amount. Despite this minor revision, the USDA remains optimistic about a strong global soybean crop for the 2024/25 season. The department currently projects that global soybean production will reach 421.6 million tonnes, marking an increase of 26.4 million tonnes compared to the previous year. This significant rise suggests that the world is on track to harvest more soybeans than ever before.

Meanwhile, the International Grains Council (IGC) has offered a slightly lower forecast for global soybean production, estimating it at 415.1 million tonnes. Although the IGC's figure is below the USDA's estimate, both organizations agree that soybean production in key regions like Brazil and the United States is expected to grow. The discrepancy between the two forecasts primarily stems from differing projections for Brazil's output. The IGC anticipates Brazil’s 2025 soybean harvest will total 161.5 million tonnes, while the USDA is more optimistic, forecasting nearly 169 million tonnes.

It's important to note that both estimates are somewhat tentative at this stage, as the 2024 harvest has only recently concluded, and planting for the 2025 harvest won't commence for another two months. Nevertheless, both the IGC and USDA foresee an increase in the area planted with soybeans in Brazil. This growth is largely driven by robust demand both locally and internationally, particularly from the biofuel sector in North and South America. The rising popularity of soybeans in crop rotation is also likely due to the competitive prices they offer to producers compared to other crops.

In addition to production forecasts, the USDA's outlook for global soybean ending stocks in 2024/25 remains strong. The department anticipates that ending stocks will reach 127.8 million tonnes, an increase of 16.5 million tonnes over the previous year. This figure is significantly above the long-term average of 99.6 million tonnes, suggesting that the global supply of soybeans will be more than sufficient to meet demand.

Overall, the outlook for the global soybean market is positive, with record-breaking production expected to bolster supplies. While some uncertainty remains due to the differing projections between the USDA and IGC, particularly regarding Brazil’s output, the general consensus is that the world is set for a bountiful soybean harvest. The increase in planted area, fueled by strong demand and favorable prices, further supports the expectation of a robust supply in the coming season. As a result, global ending stocks are projected to rise, ensuring ample availability of soybeans for various uses, including the growing biofuel industry.