Global Paraxylene Prices Face Downward Pressure Amidst Weak Gasoline Demand

As the fourth quarter of 2023 commences, global Paraxylene prices are poised to experience sustained pressures, largely attributed to a projected decline in gasoline demand. The downstream Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) segment and the gasoline octane demand are expected to impact consumers' economic condition and spending behaviors significantly. Paraxylene prices in the U.S. have declined, principally driven by reduced market transactions. This trend has been exacerbated by the unexpected increase in gasoline stocks relative to U.S. crude oil stocks, dwindling gasoline demand to its lowest seasonal point, and declining refining profits. Furthermore, the U.S.'s shift from summer to winter gasoline has reduced demand for high-octane blending components.

In Europe, growing demand concerns, coupled with the conclusion of the summer driving season, are culminating in the end of bullish trends in crude oil and gasoline markets. However, as concerns eased about potential supply disruptions from the battle between Israel and the Palestinians, the drop in crude oil prices has further lowered the market for Paraxylene. Additionally, the slowdown in PET Bottle consumption and the reduced textile demand from the downstream industries have further weakened the market for Paraxylene. Therefore, considering the reduced consumption, Paraxylene plants are running on low operating rates as producers are apprehensive of oversupply due to subdued spot activity in the Paraxylene market.

In Asia, Paraxylene prices declined during the week ending October 6. This was influenced by weaker oil prices and a bleak outlook for Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) in China. The Paraxylene market sentiment in Southeast Asia exhibited a mix of dynamics, with gasoline demand remaining steady. Conversely, reduced PTA demand affected the Paraxylene market in certain regions. However, there were no immediate plans to curtail PTA operating plants. On the other hand, Indian interest in PTA from sources outside of China showed gradual improvement, with some Taiwanese PTA cargoes being directed towards India between October and December.

Since mid-September 2023, Zhongjin Petrochemicals in Ningbo, China, with a substantial production capacity of 1.6 million mt/year, has ceased maintenance operations, and the anticipated reopening date remains uncertain.

Conclusively, according to the ChemAnalyst forecast, "there is an anticipated decline in Paraxylene prices in the coming weeks, due to the reduced consumption from downstream PET Bottle and Polyester industries. Additionally, the reduced usage of Paraxylene as a blending component in gasoline production is expected to have a negative impact on the Paraxylene market. In line with this, the market for Paraxylene also needs to be determined considering the fluctuation in the Crude Oil prices.