Global n-Butylene Market Faces Bearish Trends Amid Weak Demand

In October 2024, the global n-butylene market experienced a downward trend, largely due to decreased demand from downstream sectors such as Butyl Rubber and Fuel Additives, alongside a drop in production costs for the commodity. While crude oil prices initially rose at the start of the month, they began to decline after the first two weeks, leading to lower production costs for n-butylene.

In Germany, the n-butylene market faced a bearish trend due to abundant inventory levels in light of weak demand from downstream sectors. Although the automotive segment within the downstream Butyl Rubber sector showed an uptick in performance, potentially shifting the trend upward, this was outweighed by declining demand for n-butylene from the Fuel Additives and Lubricants sectors. Sufficient n-butylene stock has met the soft demand, reducing the need for new orders. Additionally, Hamburg’s Container Terminal Altenwerder (CTA) has experienced notable delays as operator HHLA carries out modernization efforts, leading carriers to limit sailings to Germany’s busiest port. While these logistical challenges might have pressured the market, the ample supply of n-butylene for the subdued demand has helped counterbalance the effects of port congestion, maintaining a bearish outlook.

Simultaneously, the U.S. n-butylene market also exhibited a bearish trend due to weak demand from major downstream sectors such as fuel additives, butyl rubber, and lubricants, all of which witnessed reduced activity, resulting in lower n-butylene orders. In the Butyl Rubber sector, despite a 12.8% month-over-month increase and a 9.6% year-over-year rise in automotive performance in October, the overall market for butyl rubber continued to decline, largely due to weak tire sector performance. The U.S. consumer replacement sell-in industry declined by 1.5%, with USTMA members experiencing a reduction over four times the industry average. Although there were gains in consumer OE volume and share in the U.S. and Latin America, industry sell-out volume remained flat year-over-year. In the fuel additives market, ample methanol supply and lower production costs boosted MTBE output, while refinery demand waned as crude prices fell, adding to the bearish market tone. Meanwhile, ethanol prices in the U.S. held steady in late October despite a slight production increase averaging 1.082 million barrels per day. However, ethanol stockpiles dropped by 2% to around 22 million barrels, with exports plunging over 43% to 60,000 barrels per day amid shifting global demand. In addition, market participants showed restraint in expanding activities due to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming presidential election, leading to investor caution. This cautious sentiment weighed on the market, sustaining downward pressure on n-butylene prices as stakeholders awaited greater clarity on future trade policies.

The Chinese n-butylene market also experienced a bearish trend, largely driven by reduced demand from downstream sectors like butyl rubber and fuel additives. Although the automotive segment's performance improved, the butyl rubber market declined due to a slowdown in the tire sector. Demand for butyl rubber from the tire segment weakened, leading to a slight drop in the market, resulting in the declined demand for n-butylene. In October, China’s consumer market for replacement and OE tires softened as consumer sentiment declined, though retail sales of new passenger vehicles grew by 16% y-o-y and 11.9% m-o-m, according to the China Passenger Car Association. In the fuel additive sector, MTBE prices decreased after the National Day holiday due to falling crude oil prices, stabilization of the Iran-Israel conflict, and slower gasoline demand. MTBE production increased as manufacturers postponed shutdowns, resulting in oversupply and further price pressure. Additionally, congestion eased at major ports such as Qingdao and Ningbo, improving logistics and reinforcing the bearish outlook by reducing potential supply constraints. Collectively, these factors have sustained the decline in n-butylene prices in China.

As per ChemAnalyst, the n-butylene market is anticipated to witness an incline in its trend due to the anticipation of the increasing demand for n-butylene from the downstream sectors which might shift the trend of the commodity upwards.