Germany N-Propyl Acetate Prices Continues to Decline Amid Softer Consumer Behaviour

The N-Propyl Acetate market in Germany has seen a further price decline as of third week of October, continuing the trend from previous weeks. The ongoing decrease is largely attributed to lower acetic acid prices, a key N-Propyl Acetate’s feedstock, which dropped significantly throughout September. Despite this, a more optimistic market outlook is emerging due to rising N-Propyl Acetate’s upstream methanol prices, with Methanex reporting a 7% increase in contract prices which is likely to lead to higher production cost. Meanwhile, N-Propyl Acetate import prices from China remain lower, as prices there fell in September, driven by destocking during the Mid-Autumn Festival. Additionally, China's ongoing construction sector struggles have weighed on the market.

Germany's construction sector recorded a 0.3% month-on-month increase in July and 1.2% increase in June after a drop -1.2 in April and 3.1% in May and 1.2% in June, according to Eurostat. However, the broader European construction sector remains sluggish, with output across the eurozone stabilised between June and July 2024 but down 2.2% year-on-year. A full recovery in the construction industry is not expected until 2025, casting a bearish outlook over the N-Propyl Acetate market.

Domestic production of N-Propyl Acetate remains stable, with plants operating at optimum capacity, keeping market supply sufficient. However, reduced natural gas prices have lower N-Propyl Acetate production costs, while lower-priced imports continue to exert downward pressure. Additionally, port congestion in Hamburg and other European ports is limiting supply, though ocean carriers plan to cut capacity on key routes to stabilize freight rates after recent declines.

Demand from the N-Propyl Acetate downstream construction sector remains weak, leading to reduced market inquiries. The Eurozone manufacturing activities, revised slightly higher in September, remains the lowest reading of the year, signalling deeper contraction in the sector. New orders have declined sharply, reflecting the overall weak demand environment.

In September 2024, Germany's construction sector continued to struggle despite some positive momentum earlier in the year. The N-Propyl Acetate downstream construction sector improved slightly in September from August, but it remains in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing weakness in the industry. The sector faces challenges such as reduced demand for new permits, particularly in residential construction, and the impact of high inflation on material costs. While the outlook for non-residential and renovation projects is more stable, overall activity remains subdued.

According to ChemAnalyst, N-Propyl Acetate prices are expected to stay under pressure in the near term due to weak demand and excess inventory. However, rising methanol prices, which impact upstream costs leading to higher feedstock Acetic Acid prices, and potential supply constraints could provide some price support moving forward.