The Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) market in Germany is facing considerable challenges, marked by weak demand and difficult market conditions. The country's construction industry is experiencing delays and setbacks, largely due to a government collapse, resulting in project approvals being substantially lower than in the previous year. Sources suggest that there is little anticipation of significant improvement in late 2024 and early 2025, underscoring the ongoing struggles in the market.

Trading in the European HRC market remained stagnant on November 27^th, with stable prices and limited market activity. Major suppliers maintained their offer levels, while buyers expressed minimal interest in current pricing structures. For the week ending November 29th, HRC prices declined by 1% in the spot market, reflecting the ongoing economic pressures facing the manufacturing and construction sectors.

The German HRC market is particularly vulnerable due to the broader economic slowdown affecting key industrial sectors. The construction industry has been especially hard-hit, with the Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie reporting a substantial decline in new housing development approvals. This downturn directly impacts HRC demand, as construction and infrastructure projects are critical consumers of hot-rolled coil products. The federation’s managing director emphasizes the need for regulatory reforms to stimulate construction activity.

Italian HRC producers are preparing for extended shutdowns during the holiday season, which could potentially impact supply dynamics. One prominent producer plans to significantly reduce output and will not accept bookings for January, instead focusing on February orders. This strategic move reflects the challenging market conditions and attempts to balance supply and demand in the HRC market.

Due to significant discrepancies between bids and offers, the import HRC market is currently inactive. Asian mill offers are present, but buyers indicate that feasible import prices are considerably lower. Sources in Spain and Portugal note a complete absence of import offers in the current marketplace, further complicating the HRC market dynamics.

The recent government collapse is expected to cause significant delays in urgent project decisions, further straining an already struggling sector. Suppliers within the construction ecosystem, including rebar benders, are experiencing dramatically reduced activity levels, forcing intense competition for available projects.

As per ChemAnalyst, the HRC market in Germany is anticipated to face continued challenges in early 2025. The analysis suggests a potential price stabilization with a marginal recovery range by Q1 2025. However, this projection is contingent upon several factors, including potential infrastructure investments, political stability, and global economic recovery. The HRC market remains sensitive to broader economic indicators, with supply chain disruptions and reduced industrial activity presenting significant obstacles to immediate market improvement.