Hamburg (Germany): The Calcium Nitrate market continued to remain stable despite weak fertilizer prices in Europe in the last month of 2023. Major fertilizers, including Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) fertilizers, remained weaker than anticipated despite a supply crunch in the Chinese market. Furthermore, markets observed increasing CFR rates, especially from Egypt, Jordan, and the Middle East, amidst heightened tensions as shipping companies actively avoid the Red Sea route, affecting major European-Asian trade. Despite the above-mentioned challenges and issues, Calcium Nitrate prices remained stable in European Markets.

In European markets, major supply comes largely from three regions: Mediterranean Africa, Norway, and China. In December, feedstock calcium carbonate prices stabilized around $370/mt CFR Hamburg point. Feedstock Calcium Carbonate prices are currently 29% higher than 2020 price levels despite energy and material deflating over the past year. European markets observed Calcium Nitrate prices around $540/mt CFR basis. Prices of Calcium Nitrate stay over 63% pre-Covid levels due to the container shortage observed in 2021, coupled with the Ukraine invasion and closure of Russian imports into Europe.

Economists argue that European energy inflation has deflated significantly while food inflation continues to persist, with input fertilizers cost to farmers, according to one estimate, staying above 37% of 2020 price levels. Norway continues to provide the majority of Calcium Nitrate into Europe, while the European agriculture sector is facing a supply shortage leading to lower acreage. Calcium Nitrate prices remained stable amidst a weak fertilizer market largely on the back of increased acreage, rainfall, and warmer temperatures. European markets observed deflating prices offset by increasing demand as inflation gradually settled down. Supply lines largely remained dependent on Norway for Calcium Nitrate, with Middle Eastern volumes receding as price quotations continue to increase. Europe is anticipated to observe a strong and stable Calcium Nitrate market in the coming months of FY24.

Chinese markets, on the other hand, have reduced the supply of Calcium Nitrate and feedstock calcium carbonate primarily to ensure domestic food security as El Nino continues to affect the monsoonal climate in the region. Chinese markets have been selectively reducing supplies of Calcium Nitrate into the global market, coupled with other important agrochemical producing intermediates like Nitrobenzene, etc. With Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, CFR quotations from China to Rotterdam are showing an upward trend, with European markets seeing rising premiums coupled with increased quotations. Similarly, as Europe is focusing on Norway’s supply, quotations to the American markets are showing an upward trend. Calcium Nitrate prices are anticipated to increase in the coming months as demand sentiments in the American and European markets gradually return as interest rates come down.