Decreasing Crude Oil Flows From Russia Abets the Global Price Rise

This month, Crude oil exports from Russia fell to a two-year low. The export flow fell across all the importing nations like India, China, and Turkey, which have become the biggest Russian oil buyers since the start of the war with Ukraine. In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the $60/b price cap imposed by the G7 and the EU's embargo on Russian seaborne crude went into effect on December 5. Beginning on February 5, 2023, Russian Crude Oil exports will be subject to the price cap and EU embargo.

India remained the top destination for Russian seaborne crude, but Bulgaria became the third largest buyer of Russian crude in December 2022 due to significantly lower flows to Turkey. The number of exports registered as delivered to South Korea decreased, a common destination for offshore ship-to-ship transfers.

As of January 1, Germany and Poland also stopped importing Russian crude through the Druzhba pipeline after an earlier deal that allowed seaborne petroleum into Poland to supply enough crude to the Schwedt refinery to run at roughly 70% capacity. Germany has committed to expanding the Rostock-Schwedt oil pipeline, which supplies the Schwedt refinery and its Baltic Sea port, Rostock.

According to Chemanalyst, the price of Crude Oil is expected to increase in various markets as the inventories of Crude Oil in the American market are declining. OPEC's decision to limit the output of crude oil this year further abets the rising price trend of Crude Oil across the globe. As mentioned earlier, the price cap of Russian crude export prices also contributes to the upward price trend of global Crude Oil. The decreased flow of Russian Crude Oil to major importing countries like India, China, Turkey, and Bulgaria has increased the commodity cost in those countries. All these factors will likely drive up Crude Oil prices globally in the first quarter of 2023.