Declining US Aniline Prices Amid Sluggish Demand from the Pharma Sector

The Aniline price trend showcased bearish movement at the beginning of Q3 of 2024, and import quotations decreased by 3.2% during the first half of July 2024. The demand for Aniline was low in the pharma sector. Investment in the Pharma sector decreased sharply by 69.2%, falling to USD 261 million in May 2024 from USD 846 million in April 2024. Nevertheless, this amount marked a significant 379.8% rise compared to the USD 54.4 million raised in May 2023. Meanwhile, the medical care commodities consumer CPI index rose 0.2% in June after rising 0.5% in May. At the same time, the pharmaceutical preparations Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.4% on a YOY basis in June 2024 from June 2023.

Simultaneously, the orders for Aniline from MDI producers, used in the polyurethane segment, were moderately low due to decreased consumption of PU materials in the construction sector. Despite this, the construction sector continued to perform well. According to the US Census Bureau, construction spending in May 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of USD 2,139.8 billion, reflecting a slight 0.1% decrease from April's revised estimate of USD 2,142.1 billion. It contributed to the firm consumption of polyurethane materials and its key component, MDI. Consequently, manufacturing rates were firm, and at the end of the second quarter, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index rose in June from May, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing business conditions.

Concurrently, the Aniline supplies were sufficient to cater to the market demand, while the offtakes remained moderately low from the market. At the same time, cost support fell from feedstock Nitric Acid in the Asian-producing country due to reduced consumption from agrochemicals manufacturers. It reduced the production costs of Aniline. In contrast, support remained steady from Benzene feedstock, buoyed by a resurgence in Crude Oil prices toward the end of Q2, 2024. According to the ChemAnalyst data sources, the import quotations of Aniline USD 1660/MT CFR Texas at the end of the week concluded on 19th July 2024.

As per the estimation, the trajectory of Aniline prices would alter with anticipated improvements in demand from the Pharma sector. Aniline is crucial in producing acetaminophen, a primary ingredient in Paracetamol, a widely prescribed medication for fever, particularly prevalent during the wet season. Concurrently, import prices are likely to rise in the local market. The availability of Aniline could be disrupted by the hurricane season in the region, prompting regional buyers to increase stocking practices to mitigate potential delays.