Declining Acrylonitrile prices in US Market during mid-Q4

In November 2024, the Acrylonitrile market exhibited a bearish trend, and prices witnessed a substantial decline, compared to the start of the fourth quarter, reflecting a weak market outlook.

The inquiries for Acrylonitrile were sluggish from Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene and Styrene Acrylonitrile manufacturers due to the low consumption of materials in the construction sector. Acrylonitrile consumption rates were stable to produce adhesives and sealants in the construction sector, bolstered by the availability of existing stock. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for adhesives and sealants remained unchanged in October 2024 compared to the previous month. In October 2024, the U.S. construction sector faced ongoing challenges from labor and material shortages, which continued to delay projects and strain cash flows. Despite a seasonally adjusted annual rate of USD 2,148.8 billion in construction spending for September—up 4.6% from 2023—project delays hindered growth potential. Private and public construction saw only minor month-on-month increases, with notable investments in highway and educational projects. The political landscape adds uncertainty, with Former President Trump advocating for deregulation and Vice President Harris supporting continuity in construction-friendly policies.

Meanwhile, the rising demand for Natural Gas impacted Ammonia productions, and feedstock availability remained moderate, causing intermediate Acrylonitrile production rates in the country. At the same time, fluctuations in upstream Propane prices and varying demand from downstream industries shifted the cost support. At the same time, the US Manufacturing PMI revised upwards in October 2024, following a 15-month low, indicating a slowdown in the contraction of manufacturing sector activity. Additionally, the exports were steady to importers, and the US Exports witnessed an increase.

According to the ChemAnalyst data sources, Acrylonitrile FOB Texas prices settled at USD 1325/MT at the end of the week concluded on 22nd November 2024, after witnessing a decrease of almost 6.5% in the last month's quotations.

As per the estimation, the Acrylonitrile price is anticipated to decline further at the end of 2024. Acrylonitrile inventory levels are expected to rise as destocking efforts by Asian market players enhance the availability of supplies in the global market. As these players work through their existing stockpiles, the increased supply is likely to put downward pressure on market dynamics. However, procurement activities from buyers are anticipated to remain subdued, with demand for Acrylonitrile staying relatively weak due to cautious purchasing and market uncertainty. This combination of higher inventory and low buyer activity may further contribute to a slower-paced market in the near term.