Crude Prices Could Quadruple If Suppliers Underestimate Future Demand: ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil has projected that global oil demand will remain relatively stable through 2050, maintaining levels above 100 million barrels per day, despite growing concerns about climate change and energy transitions. In a recent forecast released on Monday, Exxon highlighted that a significant reduction in investment in fossil fuels could lead to a severe energy price shock, with crude oil prices potentially quadrupling if supply struggles to meet persistent demand.

This outlook is in stark contrast to forecasts from other major industry players and organizations. For instance, UK oil giant BP anticipates that oil consumption will drop to 75 million barrels per day by 2050. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a decline to 54.8 million barrels per day if governments adhere to their climate commitments. Exxon’s projections come amidst an intense debate between fossil fuel producers, who argue for continued investment to meet global energy needs, and policymakers and climate scientists, who stress the urgent need to reduce fossil fuel consumption to combat global warming.

Exxon has consistently argued that increasing oil production is crucial for lifting billions in the developing world out of poverty. However, the company is also facing significant legal challenges from environmental groups and policymakers, particularly in California, who accuse Exxon of misleading the public about the environmental impacts of fossil fuel use.

Despite the ongoing strong demand for oil and gas, Exxon’s forecast includes a prediction that carbon emissions will decline by 25% by 2050, driven by advancements in energy efficiency, carbon capture technologies, and renewable energy sources. Nonetheless, this reduction is far below the cuts required to meet the net-zero goals established by the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

The IEA has warned that the world could experience a substantial surplus of oil by the end of the decade if production continues to rise while global demand shifts away from fossil fuels. The OPEC cartel, on the other hand, has dismissed the IEA’s forecast as overly pessimistic and maintains its own prediction that oil demand will reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045.

According to Exxon’s report, oil and gas will remain crucial to the global economy, driven by population growth that is expected to increase overall energy use by 15% by 2050. Although the demand for oil for gasoline, particularly for passenger vehicles, is anticipated to decrease by a quarter, the company expects that industrial demand, which is the largest source of consumption, will offset this decline.

Exxon’s forecast is used to shape its future production strategies, which are among the most ambitious in the oil industry. The company plans to expand its operations, including projects in Texas’s shale fields and offshore Guyana, reflecting its belief in sustained demand for oil and gas in the decades to come.