Corn Export Sales Hit a Marketing Year Low with a Notable Slide

US: During the week ending April 27th, U.S. Corn export sales plummeted to a marketing year low, as per the USDA's latest report. The report suggests that significant cancellations by China and unknown destinations led to a net reduction of over 315,000 tons of U.S. Corn. Soybeans, rice, and sorghum also experienced a similar fate of lower sales. In contrast Wheat, Soybean products witnessed improvements in week-to-week sales. Several factors, such as seasonal supply trends, currency movements, and geopolitics, have an impact on export demand. The USDA's supply and demand estimates are up for release on May 12th, Friday.

According to the latest data, physical shipments of Corn and Soybeans exceeded USDA projections for the current marketing year. It's important to note that the start of the marketing year differed for different crops: June 1st, 2022, for Wheat, August 1st, 2022, for cotton and rice, September 1st, 2022, for beans, Corn, and sorghum, and October 1st for Soybean products.

In the case of Wheat, shipments totalled 211,100 tons (7.8 million bushels), representing a 36% increase from the week ending April 20th and a 14% increase from the four-week average. Of this total, Mexico bought 72,600 tons and South Korea purchased 32,000 tons. Compared to 713.4 million bushels in 2021/22, Wheat exports for the 2022/23 marketing year currently stand at 694.5 million bushels. For 2023/24 delivery, sales of 279,700 tons (10.3 million bushels) were made primarily to unknown destinations (135,000 tons) and South Korea (45,300 tons).

Corn exports are experiencing a significant net reduction of 315,600 tons (-12.4 million bushels). While Japan and Taiwan purchased a combined total of 267,700 tons, China cancelled on 562,800 tons and unknown destinations cancelled on 168,800 tons. As the marketing year comes down to its last quarter, current Corn exports stand at 1.501 billion bushels, compared to 2.295 billion at the same time last year. Sales of 121,000 tons (equivalent to 4.8 million bushels) for delivery in 2023/24 were reported, with majority going to Mexico (97,300 tons) and El Salvador (20,000 tons).

Sorghum, on the other hand, is showing even more concerning trends. Sorghum sales fell to 1,200 tons, which is down from last week and 95% lower than the four-week average. While China purchased 56,200 tons, there were cancellations by unknown destinations on 55,000 tons.

Soybean exports have decreased by 7% in the past week but have seen an overall increase of 78% from the four-week average, with 289,700 tons (10.6 million bushels) being pegged. China made a purchase of 134,300 tons, while Germany picked up 128,300 tons. Unfortunately, unknown destinations cancelled 217,800 tons. During this marketing year, Soybean exports have reached 1.863 billion bushels, compared to last year's 2.143 billion. Out of the sales made this week, 67,000 tons (2.5 million bushels) were sold to China.

On the other hand, Soybean meal sales rose by 17% from the previous week but dropped by 10% from the four-week average, with a recorded 179,600 tons. Morocco purchased 31,600 tons, while the Dominican Republic bought 30,300 tons. From the back half of this marketing year, Soybean meal exports are at 9,742,600 tons, which is lower than last year's 9,886,300. As for 2023/24, a net reduction of 17,000 tons was noted, with 3,000 tons sold to Canada and 20,000 tons being cancelled from Ecuador.

The Soybean oil exports have increased significantly and totalled 14,000 tons which is notably higher than the previous week's as well as the four-week average. Spain procured 20,000 tons, Mexico acquired 13,500 tons, whereas the unknown destinations cancelled the purchase of 20,000 tons. Cumulative exports of Soybean oil currently stand at 117,500 tons which show a considerable decline from the previous year's exports of 665,100 tons.